WHAT IS THE RISKS OF THE CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMY INTO 2020?
In “my” opinion versus say THE EXPERTS talking about old charts graphs projections mappings and stuff – well let me tell you.
My New BOOK SUPER CHANGE out at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Super-Change-Survive-Thrive-Uncertain/dp/1949003906/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=super+change&qid=1575042186&sr=8-2 outlines the ECONOMICS which in our opinion defines the NEW 2020 ECONOMY of the world. Something that is truly new and very rapidly evolving and Super Changing. The predictions by seasons, old norms and old charts in our economic model of the new GLOBAL ECONOMY is all obsolete and a relick like trying to place hore shoes on a T – Rex.
AI ECONOMICS – WHAT IS IT – WHATS NEW ?
Two sets of laws or legislative rules that define the double lines of economies ( rules thrown out the window since 2007 by Chairman Bernanke ) and before him Chairman G who trashed 100% of the recession laws to preclude the two unwanted economic out of control events that cause world wars and depression, as legal thieves digest the theft of national wealth. The two fatal time weapons of mass ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION ARE:
- Unwanted consolidations of wealth
- Unwanted speculations into the economic systems of the world.
In 2014 56% of trade settlements were made by AI for the first time in human history. A new economy was being birthed. The regulations for the old economy resided in the blue sky over nations who made these economic laws, in over 200 nations all self steering their economic ships to their own safe harbors. In 2020 96% 0f all settlements are in the CLOUD and fall for the first time in real time outside regulatory frame works. Shadow banking dark money pools and hybrid tax dodging accumulation piles are creating “water level circulation ) issues over money flow dynamics. As the G 100 has no INTEGRATED economy strategy for the growing AI economy, the five so called WISE MEN defining the unfolding EU NON INTEGRATED central bank story,
The risk to the current 2020 system remains debt. The bug in the machinery is debt. Today Japan’s economic minister came out noting in central bank speak – that if long term bond debt for nations like Japan ( due to negative stimulating interest policies for example ) go down, for a long cycle time, it hurts economies. How? Well flows move. Long term negative return parking stalls find asset values in NEW AI economics can move in ratio’s and in velocities never experienced before.
Not long ago the New York Stock Exchange shock absorber mechanism was to stop training in a 500 point drop day for a cooling off period. This summer when we predicted SUPER VOLATILITY as a “new normal’ of the long term destabilization of the global economic post war system, into a new AI Economy the world has never had experienced with before, would see 1700 point up and down 72 hour periods. Today AI is even writing its own code faster than humans can now understand the core complexity.
In 2020 we see the excess of speculations in new AI derivative side bet markets. The markets for which way an item would go – up or down in any asset class – is fully leveraged at huge ratio’s not seen in the GREAT DEPRESSION. Side bets. Casino capitalism. Setting all asset class prices by AI. The real market of asset settlements is AI as well so the counter casino wheel of estimates of 570 trillion dollars into a real asset settlement of AI managing over 440 trillion in rising asset class monthly trading settlements.
Against this at year end the entire portfolio rebalancing almost entirely in US DOLLARS runs out of dollars. The pressure on year end so called SWAP MARKETS another casino in dollar trading now run by AI as well seeks to manage system equilibriums with speculation prices on future 2020 dollar delivery into the NEW YEAR to settle all accounts without being dollar short. To do this recently the FED in the USA had to plunge billions upon billions daily into the world system to assure the dollar FLOW as sufficient.
The RISK as we have said now for five years – is liquidity.
When will the AI liquidity mountain cause AI to fly into the cliff’s?
It could never happen. It could happen today. No one knows.
No one has experience in new rapidly evolving AI economics.
In SCI FI Movies you all worry about the terminator and AI at machine wars with the humans something like the MATRIX. You worry AI will control all the nukes and see us as threat.
Today AI controls all the money and wealth trading of nations and companies? If AI see’s us ( we humans as threat to itself in future years given no nation has AI laws today ) seeing us as threat and takes out the economic systems of the world what then? Is it even more terrible than the Matrix in human cost for failure to plan it out first? Today my Book SUPER CHANGE discusses issues you don’t see in other books. One is the AI ECONOMICS. Issues you can share this Holiday giving GIFT BOOKS as one stocking stuffer – Super Change being such a step ahead of leaders of the world.
WHAT IS COMING NEXT:
Facing growing threats and issues on multiple fronts revolving around 5G and AI itself, nations are moving to integrate control of all data to better manage a complex world. Despite what it may seem like in all the political upheavals world wide, generally stress loading from socialist economics or capitalistic economics and the theories that promise more stable better futures from both colliding. Despite all you read and see the shift is all economic from world war II.
Nato a 70 year old block of nations protecting the EU from Russia as a reason to be – is falling apart. Putin has worked years to help it fall apart. The USA the main economic banker of NATIO is unwilling to pay the defense cost of the EU that is disproportionate to the almost 30 NATO Members. The Head of France calls for direct NATO nation deals WITH RUSSIA. Turkey has already dealt directly as a NATO PARTNER buying RUSSIA weapon systems – surely not to defend against RUSSIA. So when the President of FRANCE says NATO is brain dead, does it mean every nation is in it all for themselves pre world war II ? Is NATO stronger or weaker at the NATO BIRTHDAY party this weekend, with everyone fighting over everything. No one is at peace in NATO. Not over money. Not over common defense. Germany is self dealing with energy dependance on Russia.
The World is forming a NEW WORLD ORDER. A new economic order. The US Dollar remains the only trusted world reserve currency for global settlement of the sums set forth here now managed by AI not humans. Humans invest in AI managed money bets. Ai manages the money.
Block Chain is rising and removing central banker control. China is issuing its own global block chain, trying to beat Facebook and its concept of a block chain virtual money on line without government or nation.
All this occurs with market risks from:
- Liquidity and debt failure potentials into the system creating panic – AI PANIC an no one knows what that really looks like.
- Climate Change events now costing trillions to world economies
- Wars terror and unknown geo political events
- Pandemic of an illness that overwhelms our systems at this level of human density birth rate and global transportation
- Impeachment politics and the outcomes really and the 2020 Nov vote.
Against these RISKS always with investors today – we have a solid stimulated managed more integrated economic system globally. Trade deals promise a peaceful new world order of rule of law and trade outcomes where hopefully less and less nations are left behind anywhere. Peace deals promote trade. Drops in violence.
The rally going into 2020 may be the middle of a cycle of CONVERGENCE outlined in SUPER CHANGE. If that bet and guess is correct the high market levels many experts believe is coming may well continue. The idea the market in election year will be a 5% return or less we think may be well low and off. We anticipate a continued decline in energy price and well controlled inflation. We see a glut of oil as demand is falling way faster in our model than other modeling we are reading upon. We see petro demand falling off a cliff like no commodity in historic terms ever.
New industries are developing including FOOD output revolutions that promise food security for growing populations. Developing medicines for all continues to be a challenge into the world today. New economics are opening round old models we’ll have to wait and see on all that. New polymour break throughs suggest toxic plastic can be made to recycle cheap without earth consequence. A super black hole 70 times the density our son some 15,000 light from earths now is refining physics and our idea of the universe itself and our place inside it.
Ebola attacks in Congo through Thursday have curtailed multi – ebola out of control in Africa – second largest outbreak rising to largest as the rebels in Congo attack and kill Ebola health care workers. The violence was so bad on Thanksgiving the WORLD HELATH ORGANIZATION WHO STATED THAT Ebola infections were declining in the HOT ZONE and now will rise again for sure. Evacuations are taking place all weekend.
In China where small banks are failing and click runs are failing those banks we see bank take overs by the state. In the EU 28% of banks have a capital one to one ratio in valuation versus 81% in the USA. Lebanon is the banker of the Gulf and its banks now have currency controls. While Depositors are told their funds are safe click runs have had banks in Lebanon fail to transfer billions out of the Lebanon banks and Arab depositors are now suing. This could unravel fast. The EU has told its bankers in 29 nations to either cut cost and get profitable – or merge or go out of business. Now think about that today. Meanwhile Germany’s once largest EU Bank Deutsche bank ( all major banks have pled guilty to multiple crimes with no one going to jail ever ) – has collapsed just as we predicted five years ago with Wells Fargo and New York London banks all pleading guilty to price fixing, phony accounts and more. We stated new runs on banks would digital – click runs – and much harder to bring to light until it is way too late. Now AI is click running on banks. No one can predict the future outcomes as confidence in core banking in nations from Italy, to Venezuela to Argentina and Chile and Brazil next – as pressures mount – in a negative interest where banks can’t raise profits in a central bank stimulus negative deposit world – calls for nations and central banks for bankers to increase reserves when they lack profits to do so – is a double edge sword. Banks around the world are seeing so low a profit that in many nations they lack access now to capital. EU banks saw bad loans drop in 2019 – slightly over 2018.
US trade gap narrowed substantially, business investment came back up in October – surprising experts but not us – and third quarter GNP was revised up for the USA to better numbers. The market almost set another record as we predicted record after record into year end – read back and see our opinion on that – right again. The Weds law congress passed on human rights in HONG KONG created a caution to FLOWS that the trade deal may also hostage up to the Congress labeling of China.
in a BBC news item with Chinese Ambassador globally this weekend we saw China label Vice President Pence as a CHINA BASHER that shows “no respect”. The ambassador denied leak reports about 2 million being locked up by SOCIAL POLICE to brain wash massively releasing new CPU brains all set for China society – the China re-education way. The Ambassador labeled the many reports from camp escapes – as fake news. The Ambassador labeled the leaked Communist Party Manuals for running the camps FAKE NEWS and said no such documents in fact exist. Related to the CAMPS the Ambassador stated that a terror attack was occuring every 72 hours in their Northwestern Provinces ( muslim societies in China ) and that now everyone was happy peaceful and it was safe to walk on the streets. When asked about the AI social monitoring the Ambassador cited how many camera’s the UK has for every citizen. The BBC Reporter reminded the Ambassador the surveillance in China is 1000 times more camera’s per human than any nation on earth – and all monitored by AI to produce social normals and out comes by state social police. The Ambassador said the MIRACLE of 70 years of revolution in China had to unfold CHINA WAY. China does not judge the rest of the world China may not be judged by the world including in human rights abuse areas or illegal theft of nation’s wealth. Finally the BBC asked this Holiday – about reports China wished to replace the USA as the leading world power and would break the laws of the world to get the job done. The Ambassador said – by golly and oh heck – we are a developing nation and our GNP is a small fraction of the USA.
China is contracting economically at a level not seen in 30 years. Trade imbalances are being reduced with the USA including in the EU. Germany autos are dropping tens of thousands of workers and larger lay off’as are occurring as economics revise into AI economics leaving those who fail to embrace SUPER CHANGE behind in profits and futures. Stay alert to the shifting. The likely record growth of markets globally next year remains HIGH for profit making. The risks are also high and not predictable. Fully today.
Year end portfolio’s making a lot of profit rebalance. Capital gains in all nations are AI managed to portfolio rebalancing. Now the GREAT AI year end rebalancing is taking place. How will that rebalancing end the year? We suspect given the ocean of cash and the cash side line profit taking has already developed into the markets – a surprise rally back into growth stocks is likely to occur. We see FAANG as rising even with INTEL chip short falls – it considers the long term robust demand. Why?
5G. Over 4 billion devices world wide turn over 2020 – 2021 – a TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENT ECONOMY by and of itself. 5G will effect everything. Soon food on the farm will be AI machines that water, fertilizer, weed, pesticide, all with AI nano distributions saving 80% of the water for agriculture – and all real time reported to harvest control for that one small farmer. The output per hector will become jurassic park level with lower cost for food such that no nation will be left behind even in draught areas. The economics of just this sector and all self driving machines – will become a change of magnitude. Why?
Consider the partnership of self owning a car, and petro industries. Now consider the future of power is clean burning renewables starting with Natural Gas the earth farts and shits – no shortage as the earth is a a natural gas factory. No consider ever higher % of individuals no longer own a car. They order lower cost self driving drones for short term travel or a self driving car if drone travel bothers you. While you can still own your electric non polluting car – the economics will change so that the industry itself will change dramatically.
Petro demand for highly toxic fertilizer pesticide toxic chemicals and packaging is falling off a Niagara Falls economic disintermediation. Those at the top as in the days of cigarette adds on TV saying there was no direct link to cancer from enriched addicting tobacco products ( until billions in health claims changed all that and the laws ) the demand charts for oil we believe are dead wrong. We feel demand is falling far faster than industry seeking to protect its “THAT IS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE THINGS AROUND HERE ” models – reside now in AI ECONOMIC DENIAL ( economics is now AI and new to humans ) and denial of demand worst case outcomes – which will in fact be exceeded.
We now predict into 2020 the worst downturn oil and Opec chart tables we in our opinion respectfully believe are false and wrong and that the down turn in demand for petrol everything will be 2020-2025 unseen in human economics in modern times. The outcome to the revolution ELRON MUSK initiated and continues to lead ( we told you do not SHORT TESLA if you recall ) is unfolding at break neck speeds, as a SUPER CHANGE to transportation and petro industries. Soon your choice will be UBER OR LYFT with driver or without.
THE ARAMACO FRAUD OFFERING:
We have predicted those investing in 1% sliver of the Saudi Nations self proclaimed reserves and value arrive to market at the new Market Peak price time in the past 24 months. We also note the ability of oil to sell much above 39.00 dollars a barrel to contract buyers is not present. The posted spot prices of 57.00 dollars and 67.00 dollars are below the sums needed for SAUDI to operate in the black. Saudi has lost credit ratings and borrowed and borrowed to stay afloat within the double economic lines of the market place. Saudi and OPEC exist in name only. Today.
Everyone is cheat and the Saudi coup and dictatorship of OPEC by the puppy King was not taken well by Opec Members starting with Iran most harmed by Saudi PR and policy. In Iraq with thousands dying in protest for the Iran Shite side of the Muslim faith the leadership resigns. From Lebanon to Iraq Putin and Iran are winning in sanction and the USA is being diminished. A long strategy of XI and Putin of asymmetrical war fare. America is still the engine of the world in economics and every nation needs trade with America to prosper in the world today. No nation is an island but the USA is by great far the most powerful economic military engine every created by mankind.
The puppy King MBS needs money. Everyone knows that.
The Puppy King has locked up his own royal family and shook them down for 100 billion and counting. I’m sure they all forgot and pledged loyalty for life. Is that what you believe in tales of 1001 Arabian nights? Past Saudi family KINGS were kind enough to mentor me. I am a student of theater history which is complex back to Alexander the Great ( who stayed forever ).
Economics – the Saudi Aramco oil reserve asset base of 1.7 trillion we feel is over stated in value and worth by a full trillion dollars. What this means is that the Arab Opec community pledging to invest in ARAMCO to preserve ( new for OPEC ) influence versus control now that the King MBS war on American oil failed, and America came out by far as the world’s largest oil producer. So the kid needs endless cash. He raises it by selling a 1% sliver at the new markt high peak – for his oil demand falling off a cliff – Aramco He has pledges now for around 4 billion. The 24 Billion he is raising in his first offering is partially subscribed. The full PR Machine of OPEC will be at work to sell out this offering to help stabilize Saudi who just saw IRAQ change government due to the people’s power.
Will stock holders of Amamco do well long term.
No one can know for sure.
It is out opinion they will not.. Not between now and 2025 …we’ll keep you posted.
Berny Dohrmann – HAPPY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AMERICA – GREAT TIME TO READ SUPER CHANGE MY NEW BOOK