THE US DOLLAR – TRADE WARS – AND THE TRUTH
Lets start with economics. I am most comfortable on that side of the Fake news – gossip – and hear say she said he said – stories of these times we live within.
Follow the money.
So after World War II – the USA WON. The Soviet Union and the EU would have perhaps LOST if it were not for the USA blood guts and frankly money.
The victor gets the spoils of war.
Our spoil was – that the currency that as driving world economics the London Pound the prior reserve currency, the Pound Sterling – was in inflationary need to rebuild economics. The MARSHALL Plan helped the UK first and the entire EU second. The Marshal Plan was build to rebuild Germany and later Japan, from utter devastation as economic holes in the world.
The World Reserve currency means what? Lets consider what it means:
- All global trading is settled in US dollars – meaning every nation has to have enough US dollars or trade their currency into US dollars to pay for say energy or food imports. Further a cost to make that conversion and to keep your printed money in dollar based reserves exists known as the carrying cost or carry trade as it extends.
- The USA pays less for everything which is acquired with US dollars and everyone else pays more.
- The US dollar has been the only currency with sufficient
- ( depth of circulation and liquidity globally – trillions in the system
- System liquidity the system to settle trades at the trillions taking space in real time seamlessly
- the last refuge of safety due to the strength of the USA asset value to its debt and its economic diversity to its total output which is always rising
- Confidence within the strongest ( by far not even close to others ) economic machine humanity has ever known or experienced.
4. The US dollar is the court of final safe harbor in times of world future knowns
5. The US dollar is further made safe haven by the support of the largest military power the world has ever experienced in human history which continues to step away from all others by a large safety margin.
So the US dollar is at a multi year low. Why?
Have you noticed various trade deals are being re- constituted world wide?
Do you believe trade since world war II has been largely subsidized ( by the USA at great cost to the USA ) and that moving forward a new FAIR trade to the USA side of trade must be installed which is not a political issue it is an economic issue. Lets look at it this way.
- We are in a world trade war that began the crash of 2007 and is a spiral becoming more public and savage economically.
- The trading partners would like another basis to settle trade that does not make THEM – so CO DEPENDENT on the USA as a buyer and as a DOLLAR FINAL COURT TO SETTLE TRADES as the US dollar “IS” the world reserve currency.
- Holding money in dollars since 2007 has paid ZERO INTEREST. This zero interest has made it cost money in real terms to hold reserves in dollars – although this is a snap shot of time in the market space. Why?
- Dollars being low in value – off sets weight of unfair trade pricing and practices. American goods and services becomes massively affordable seen by rising US exports from energy to food to technology and services – a graph soaring since 2015.
- In negotiation the dollar being high makes every other nations goods LOWER COST TO US – your toaster – your wash machine – your car from outside the USA or anything from clothes to customer service in india or the Philippines. When the dollar rises the USA goods cost more ( which is just fine inside fair versus unfair trade systems ). When trade deals over decades are so antique – weighted and financially advantaged to everyone BUT the USA – making their goods so low cost and their taxes and cost to bring American Goods in – is not a two way street – and is staggering in time and money cost to DO BUSINESS in Asia or EU for American firms – where it is snap your fingers for their firms to come to the USA. One way to negotiate better trade deals is to keep your US dollar LOW – which also makes debt borrowing for USA in dollars – low – lowest ever – while TIME is on our side as GNP is soaring asset value is soaring and trade is soaring and the profit to the USA or the DEFICIT is falling – millions of Americans no longer use food stamps or un employment or even social security because they have GREAT And ever BETTER JOBS and careers that excite them. As millions stop spending Government social capital and start contributing taxes and government reserve capital the US dollar gets stronger and stronger and TIME is helping the USA to rebalance trade world wide.
In the Trade wars of 2018 and 2019 the outcome remains country to country versus huge regional deals. In the Regional Deals the system model must be fair and if it is not the USA is not only not playing with that unfair nation they are going to stop BUSINESS AS USUAL since World War II protocols and put on stiff duty and tax to sell under priced goods into the USA creating a level playing field instead of a 1950 tilt not in favor of the USA for decades. This is being worked out by all parties and is not political. This is a process to assure the US dollar remains the world reserve currency for 300 more years of time.
First be clear – there is no alternative to the US dollar as an economic system model. The Communist in Russia, and Beijing have a phony economy model of lies and false reporting that when the SUPER DEBT BUBBLE rebalances, will wipe both off the map echoically. Hard landings for their people – who were lied to financially – and decades to restore their full partnership as they SUPER CRASH which they will. Its economic not personal or political.
The EU is drowning like a row boat in a hurricane of DEBT that has no end. The EU can not rebalance the debt of Greece let alone the massive ice begs of Italy Debt or Spain’s Debt and so many more. It is economic sewage – a economic first generation home ( the EU system model and box top rules ) that is now even now burning to the ground – where the system designers never put in sprinkler systems or fire ESCAPES – all the while having nice mostly meals telling the EU community just how well their debt financed NON ECONOMY is doing out there. The EU will de-evolve into something we suggest will be second generation and improved – or drift into wars. As is historic to rebalance debt accounts of nation where too many nations are in fact like China – actually bankrupt. If you reported accounting like say a Fortune Firm does – but nooooo shudder fake news to do that economically in our life time. War is more acceptable to telling you all the truth. Heck they make fortunes on war.
Today the consolidation is IMF verified to hover around 18% own more wealth than 82%. In some nations 1% own more wealth than 99% which is always a pre war moment of the economic death spiral in which options to fix the issues ( economically ) are beyond politicians and war is the manner in which blame is shed the public never understands the true issues, and the economics reset via war to victors if there are any.
Now then lets reap my children.
First – we are in a protracted trade war to rebalance global box top rules and agreements for world trade.
Second – this is a highly undesirable every nation is in it for themselves competition – versus a Cooperative Capitalism – where the G 100 collaborated within a NO NATION LEFT BEHIND new global trade scheme. Outcomes are typically high volatility and growing geo political instability.
Third – the threat to any existing order is learned from Greece and Rome. Those nations led the world due to leadership in military invention and weapon superior designs. They both fell in half a decade when their enemies they labeled with fake news at the time as barbarians when they were far from that – acquired the WEAPONS OF ROME. Ask yourself how safe is the entire system economically when the barbarians own the weapons of Rome and the superiority of the weapons GAP ( in AI and innovation ) shrinks to inshgifigance. Is this the reason last week scientist closed the DOOMSDAY CLOCK to now only seconds not minutes until a human extinction event ( look it up ).
Four – Can new tools to collaborate which Trump discussed last week at DAVO”s as the theme message to all sovereign nation leaders – resolve FAIR TRADE without WAR and with inclusion for all? A first for humanity if we can get there.
Fifth – If we break down in trade or if we continue to spiral 1% own more wealth than 99% we reach a LEE or Liquidity Evaporation Event in which the old system dies economically which itself becomes a trigger or shooting wars between have not nations an have nations over history time lines.
So how does one predict.
Well one first realizes the most powerful institutions the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board and their global alliances and friends control all the money all the rules and all the systems. If they support the US dollar – trade in vast dollar reserves for other currencies – or buy up dollars out of the market and build up reserves in dollars that pay for everything as the store of value that beats diamonds and oil – the dollar goes down or goes up and trade moderates for the USA down or up as they do it.
So lets make some predictions knowing our accuracy since the 1980’s and here goes ( again ) – always consistent for you:
- We predict NAFTA and Asia and related EU trade deals will rise up as will others.
- We predict as FAIR TRADE advances – American will lead the world economically into a new age of prosperity and mutual abundance.
- We predict a market correction is likely this SPRING. A a solid correction to rebalance ratio’s of pricing that are insane today.
- We predict a good solid crash in oil prices. Everyone is long. No one is short. LEE will occur and the over supply will be clear in weeks ahead. Watch how many lose billions on the wrong side of this silly speculative bubble.
- We predict over one trillion dollars flowing back into the USA for plant, jobs, invention, within a trillion dollar infrastructure rebuilding the USA will be able to fully afford modernizing USA cities and creating the first SMART NATION versus smart city and the result of THAT we predict -will be the most massive global rising period of abundance in the 2020’s of human experience ever. If we get the cooperation wrong all bets are off and we have wars. If we cooperate and collaborate seeing sanity versus insanity in our methods and processes we win – billions of all of us win.
Economics require consideration of financial wild cards. The current world system lacks regulatory frame works to manage out of control digital super money pool manipulations of trade and asset classes. The worst wild card is these two national pressures the majority of sovereign nation’s now face:
- Debt burdens from decades of layered debt that failed to result in economic growth to pay off the growing debt Super Bubble.
- Infrastructure capital required to advance the nation to sustaining growth which economically provides surpluses sufficient to maintain prosperity and stability in the nation.
Our team is advancing to Sovereign Nation’s a new class of bond – known as SUPER BONDS via Roel Campos at Hugh’s and Hubbard a leading bond legal agency for sovereign nations. The SUPER BOND INVENTION concentrates all debt into one debt SUPER BUCKET and concentrates ( with conditions and requirements of course ) forward infrastructure into yet another bucket, which both SUPER BUCKETS are in fact financed by the swimming pool we place them into called a sovereign nation SUPER BOND. The Secret sauce of the SUPER BOND allows sustained economic prosperity for demographically challenged economic like Italy and China, with instant favorable outcomes.
SUPER BONDS may be the one new OPTION that precludes the old model of world war to rebalance Economic abuses in the global system. When you read the superficial histories of what caused World War I and what Caused World War II and what causes any war – we read with different glasses. The Fake News of historic text books is nothing more than national propaganda. If you wish to be uneducated buy into the pablum and get a beer a pizza and watch a sports game. Have fun. Be happy.
If you want to KNOW why every war since city states in Greece or throughout all o human history were caused – let me tell you – it was all economics and imbalances that over time built to a point the only political way forward was war. It is never Muslim versus Christian in the Crusades – it was always economic in fact.
When you appreciate all wars are preventable but all wars require options that are unseen and unknown.
Hitler gained power economically with insane box top rules to sustain economics. A master race is a form of insane concept. A master faith is a form of an insane thinking error. All humanity must be celebrated in diversity – and all competitive expressions even in disagreement of values and ideas – we must be sane versus competitively insane. Competition punishes all diversity and has no respect for diversity. Cooperation celebrates all diversity and never punishes diversity expressed in Fatih, creed, color, politics, economics life style, or any form of your expression that does not pose a threat of harm to my circle because you respect and celebrate say that I’m Christian while I celebrate your Muslim and seek to have joy learning from you versus every punishing you in any form. Sane versus insane. Read my Book if this calls to you REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION which frankly is all about economics – your own from home space to work space to nation space.
So as economic opinion it is our opinion:
- The market will correct this Spring and go up over years of time to 100,000 DOW.
- The Dollar will rebound into FAIR TRADE and stun the world.
- Energy will fall in price and wipe out billions on the wrong side of the bet – a bit insane really.
- The USA will lead the nations of the world into a new age of prosperity.
- The USA may do all this with Trump over two terms or the USA may go political – and one term Trump – and no one can predict because the MID year elections are the outcome. If Trump picks up ten seats there can be no successful impeachment as any impeachment would fail and Trump will well know that. If Trump loses ten seats and the Democrats decisively win in the mid year all bets are off for the process to one term Trump. Which will be politics running Economics versus economics running politics.
Now then a BIT TO DO ABOUT NOTHING.
The POT calling the Kettle Black.
So the USA meddles in all elections around the world from May in the UK to tapping Maekle’s in Germany’s cell telephone thank you NSA courtesy of Snoweden. We tap the phones of our best buddies and allies and secretly use that information. We use social to influence everyone’s election.
All nations do the same to us. Nations support the candidate they think will be most friendly to them. What is new about that? Those efforts have zero effect on the outcome of an AMERICAN Election. The notion a US candidate conspired with a foreign nation and criminally stole an election is fake news – a SET UP – and truly a shame for our people. All of us. When you lack real bullet – shit in your hand and throw your shit into the other guys face. Monkey’s do that. Should we running nations? Should 500 of the Congress divide into this form of shit throwing or not? Can we not do better than that.
So the billion spend on this entire matter – is truly legally – a tragic moment in the USA. Who cares of Bill Clinton got a blow job working late – it is none of your business folks. All leaders deserve a private personal life – we did not elect Saints because there are none. George Washington was a ferocious womanizer so was Mark Anthony – today they would have to RESIGN. Powerful men and powerful woman have used those powers for sexual and financial gratifications throughout all time. Abuse in this area is never RIGHT but stopping it is not going to take place from tabloid news. Not with human beings.
What is the issue.
Trump is President.
Trump won. Not by a little. By a lot.
His disrespect from those who hate him is not American a value.
Disagree with Trump – but respect him in your disagreement.
Respect the office of the President over any individual in that office.
Today America institutions and systems are in a reform phase. The side that wants things just as they have been -not upgraded in the age of Super Change – are bitter entrenched and die hard to secure NO CHANGE ON THEIR WATCH. Those once in a generation upgraders who wish to improve and upgrade the system – as both sides have all political interests with them – are passionate and totally committed. The sea change between the UPGRADE OR DO NOT UPGRADE mind sets has become predictably polarized truly bitter and dis-respectful one side to the other.
Non issues rise up around the real issues.
The USA is booming during all this change leadership I a messy democratize debate that will take years to unfold to its final positions.
The Tax change is bringing so far a trillion dollars of investment into the USA just in the first quarter of 2018. Trillions more will follow from nations and companies all over the world. The rising tsunami of investing will create a DOLLAR WEALTH that you can take to the bank.
SHORT TERM DOLLAR DROPS ARE DUE TO US POLICY TO MAKE AMERICAN GOODS FAIR TRADE UNTIL NEW TRADE AGREEMENTS OFFSET ANY SUCH NEED. IF YOU WILL NOT PLAY FAIR WE WILL MAKE IT MORE COSTLY FOR “YOU” TO TRADE WITH US – SIMPLE ECONOMICS.
The USA is producing more oil than any one but Russia – and we are passing Saudi this year – probably this quarter – then we will pass Russia. The USA will move from Obama energy policy continued and expanded by Trump to in just ten years rise from 15th oil producer to the # 1 oil producing nation on earth – and stay there. As energy is the cost of everything why not just economically look at the dollar this way.
THE DOLLAR IS UNDERWRITTEN BY THE # 1 SUPPLIER OF ENERGY TO THE REST OF THE WORLD WITH NO END IN SIGHT FOR HOW STRONG THAT MAKES THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY BY AND OF ITSELF.
I is my economic position that the USA DOLLAR Is what every citizen in middle class world wide requires – where 5% of your personal savings should be – and always remain – US dollars as a store of value. Looked at over time the US dollar buying power is in every nation what you want in your pocket.
Nations will increase not reduce their dollar holdings because they are smart frankly. Today they can buy those reserves cheap. If they miss that dollar cost average window the dollar will rise to levels inflation economies know so well.
Today the DOLLAR IS A DOLLAR STORE.
Nations we predict will flood into dollar buying between now and the Spring and the DOLLAR is going to SOAR IN VALUE to levels not seen in years.
Take all those economics to the bank as you try and sort all the moving parts out. Folks from immigration reform to infrastructure the USA is upgrading and THAT is a Re-INVENTING OF AMERICA that is being done by democrats and republicans working together – there is far more of that than the news owned by SUPER MONEY is letting you understand.
In fact we feel the NEWS secretly Is the real crime – news with an outcome – news that is delivering a political position – that is a crime in fact to those lacking discernment as to how SUPER MONEY MANIPULATES your information. That crime is far worse than any reports about Russia doing anything in the social space folks Give me a break – THINK will you.
Respect the President you do not agree with. Express your views with respect in our system.
Stop patronizing and viewing dis-respect. Spin. Manipulation.
News is influenced by SUPER MONEY as a commercial product. Fire-walling that trend and rolling back that trend is what I feel will eventually rise up.
What is wrong with America will be corrected.
But what is right about America.
What is right about America is 300 million of US versus 500 of THEM.
Berny Dohrmann – Respecting the US dollar for all the right reasons