AS THE WORLD BURNS & ROME FIDDLES TODAY
OPPOSING VIEW PUBLISHED TO PRESENT ANOTHER VISION
The Q1 GDP number is irrelevant, as will be the Q2 number which we know will be dreadful. Who ever imagined the print could be minus 4.8% and the stock market has a huge rally. Shows how screwed up things are. Through the end of Feb, GDP grew at 3.1%, very strong and growing. That is the important take away. Never have we gone into a crash when the economy was booming and interest rates were near zero. That tells us the basic economy and banking system was strong. A good base from which to build back up more quickly than in all other recession situations. What we need to focus on is Q3 getting people back to work and ending all the stay home restrictions, and Q4 real recovery, and the actions of the Fed from here on. One of the big problems coming up soon is the junk bond market where there will be a lot of defaults and likely BK filings. 500 junk issuers have already been downgraded. Junk rates went from around 5% before the virus to around 8.5% now. Many of these issuers are losing money, and now are likely hemorrhaging cash. As a growing number of these issuers default, it will negatively impact credit markets in general and may result in wider spreads. However, it is very likely the Fed will now keep rates near zero well into 2021, and maybe far longer as the economy will need support for a long time to fully get out of this mess.Even if the US does have a V recovery, the rest of the world is in bad shape, and will continue to be weak for possibly years. The EU may be stabilizing by year end, but their structural and political problems, and inability to reconcile the interests of the northern nations with the bankrupt southern nations will keep the EU economy in serious trouble for a long time. They cannot even agree to a way forward to finance the weak nations like Italy.It was critical to keep the capital markets functioning normally, and the Fed did that exceptionally well. Whatever negative comments Trump had about Powell in the past, he should build Powell a monument for saving the country. There has been around $450 billion of new corporate bond issues in the past month. That is great news. The other capital markets such as the stock market, repos, swaps, currency, etc are all working well now, and that has meant we had no crash of the financial system which saved the world from true collapse.Recovery is totally dependent on the capital markets functioning normally. Under 13(3) the Feds will make larger loans to companies which will be loans that are not forgivable. Good news is a lot of corporations were able to raise their own private market capital. Powell said the future is unknowable now, and the Fed will be there to do anything needed to maintain smooth markets, and help the economic recovery. There is now zero risk of any sort of collapse of the financial system. Confidence in the financial system will make a very big good difference in how the stock market performs and the recovery generally. Banks are functioning normally and making loans and mortgages.Inflation will remain at or near nil due to the worldwide economic collapse. Oil prices do present a risk on one side with a lot of unemployment in that industry, but low prices is a huge help to consumers and business, especially airlines. When looking at future inflation numbers, make sure to look at core, and not including energy, to get the real number. Low inflation and zero rates for maybe two years, is good for the stock market and for recovery so long as banks and shadow banks make capital available to businessesIt is essential we get people back to work quickly since it is a fact that long term unemployment tends to keep marginal workers out of the market longer and harder to rehire. In February, the low unemployment of minorities was going great, with many blacks and Latinos saying the job market and economy was the best in their lifetime. We need to get back to that as soon as possible, It has all sorts of good ramifications for society, communities, health of minorities, and self esteem for people who had lost hope. This may be one of the keys to getting the country back to a positive place, and will stop any chance of frustrations becoming civil unrest and crime.China will be the big loser in this whole scenario. Now it is very clear that my theory or one similar, that China intentionally let people fly to other nations and spread the virus is likely true, and the coverup in conjunction with the WHO, has led to EU countries joining the US in taking steps to bring back production from China, and to bar China from investing in domestic companies. It will be interesting to watch which countries outside of the US really are willing to punish China. The weaker the EU gets the less they will want to take steps against China which has already threatened some countries if they do take adverse steps. I am not optimistic that the EU will really stand up to China the way they should. China unleashed what is equal to a massive attack on the world economy, but the EU is weak.At the same time, Belt and Road projects are proving to be huge burdens to small countries, and there is growing pushback by these countries who realized they sold their sovereignty in exchange for construction of their ports and other infrastructure to China. China represents a true existential threat to the world, and Trump is the only one to truly confront them. I believe he is right that the Chinese desperately want Trump to lose. Globalism is dead. Biden would be a disaster for the world.All the talk is about a vaccine, but we need to deal with the reality that a vaccine is not a panacea. There are flu vaccines every year, but less than 50% of people in the US get the shot, and it is never 100% effective since the flu virus mutates constantly. Then there is the rest of the world will not all get the vaccine, nor its annual updates which is likely to be needed. A vaccine is not the solution it is promoted to be. What is more important is an effective cure or a prophylactic to be available to help protect front line health workers, and to be an effective treatment for very early use when someone first gets sick. Apparently Remdesivir is just step one in the treatment protocol, and it will be improved and likely surpassed by other drugs now on trial.That is a game changer. There are preliminary reports from trials underway that possibly Hydroxychloroquine treatment can prevent contracting the virus, or if taken as soon as detected, can be an effective treatment. Trails are still underway, but the point is there are a lot of trials and the solution is near at hand to make this another of many viruses that we annually get subjected to. If we do have effective treatments, then the full economy can fully reopen, and Corona will just become one more thing like flu. Since the stats are now clear that it is mainly old and already sick people who are at real risk, and people who have other issues like high blood pressure and diabetes can get vaccine to protect them. Stats show if you are 50, or under, and healthy, you will be very unlikely to get the virus, and kids are almost at zero risk, so they can go back to school and can get the vaccine. There is always a anecdotal story of a one off case, but that is not relevant.The press is all revved up that we have had 1 million cases and more dead than in Vietnam. Neither number means anything. 1 million is just a tiny .3% of the population. What does Vietnam have to do with any of this. We still do not have any good data available to the public on what is the real risk to the average healthy person under 65. All information we have seen so far suggests it is nil. It was vey scary that You Tube deleted the video of the two docs who were online suggesting their data base don their own testing of ER patients show the virus is not very threatening to most of the population. You Tube claimed it was misinformation, but these were two legit docs who in practice with 20+ years’ experience. Who is You Tube to decide what is medically true when it comes from established doctors. We need to know what really went on with why this video was deleted and who forced it to happen.The stock market seems to be getting ahead of fundamentals which is why you are seeing declines at the moment. It is up 31% since the low in March. It is great that investors are optimistic about the coming recovery, and with most governors reopening faster than all the predictions, maybe it will be better than expected, but in the end it feels like the market is now over valued for the moment. On the other hand, there is a real pent up demand to resume life and jobs, and maybe as governors speed the reopening, there will be a faster recovery. Maybe consumers will spend again, but maybe they save and wait to see if the recovery is real, and their jobs are really secure again. Maybe they remain afraid to go to the store. I suspect it is the latter. On the other hand, with rates remaining at near zero for another year or two, the stock market becomes the only place for investors to go. Don’t fight the Fed, and this time they are using nuclear weapons.With unemployment checks being topped up by $600, and the $1200 per person, and all the forbearances on mortgages and credit cards, consumers are not in bad shape despite the fear stories, and anecdotes in the media, This has been a searing psychological bad experience for all, and generally that makes consumers reluctant to run out and spend. I think the media has stoked fear and negativity when they should instead have been talking about the real impact of all the subsidies, and that once jobs reopen consumers may be OK.There has been a lot of reduction in revenue for all levels of government, and I do not see the Republicans rolling over and giving badly run states a big financial subsidy to continue their corrupt and profligate spending ways. Government employee pensions need to be reformed, or we will have lost the one opportunity to save us from financial crisis in a few years. It is mathematically impossible for pensions to earn a needed return for several years due to the interest rates will be near zero for at least two more years. It is not the virus that will lead to cops getting laid off. It is the out of control corrupt spending on pensions that had already reduced the available cash flow to pay critical salaries and other services.McConnell needs to hold out and not subsidize the sates and cities that blew the tens of billions in the past. You will soon be buried in media stories about laid off cops and it is all Republicans fault. It is just typical media bias and BS.The extra $600 to the unemployed has now become a real problem as in NY an unemployed worker gets $50,000 per year. Why would they go back to earning $35,000 or whatever it may have been. Now Nancy wants to push guaranteed income. That is the last thing we need. She is really dumb pushing this left wing ideology. Were we to do that, many would not be motivated to work. Wages would have to rise to get enough workers. Prices would have to rise.Taxes would have to rise to pay for it. The cycle would ramp up, and the economy would go into recession, and then they would say we need even more guaranteed income, and then into a vicious cycle of economic disaster. The Dems seem to think they can just tax corporations and wealthy, and just give it to lower income people with no economic impact. Clearly they never took an econ class, or they just have never been in a real business to understand anything other than buy more votes with more entitlements. Every country that has tried it has halted it as a bad thing to do for all the obvious reasons.We will know a lot better by June 1 where we are headed. I believe that the giant monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been poured into the economy will likely make the recovery better and faster than expected. Just do not count on it. The travel and restaurant industries have been devastated as it never has been before, and it will take time to come back and rehire. That extra $600 on unemployment has become a real problem in many places to get people to come back to work. Nobody knows how this plays out, which is why no company will give forward guidance. We are at the bottom of unemployment. It should be up from here.Colleges and universities are facing financial pressures they never expected and I several cases, cannot handle. They are trying to figure out why they have no money or what to do to stay alive. Simple. Cut pout the useless expenses for all the diversity deans and sexual deans and programs. Just go back to basics of teaching real classes and charge an appropriate price. It is like taxes. Raise the price too high and payers flee. Cut needless expenses and lower the cost and revenue grows. Simple business concepts. Stop the diversity, inclusive courses, and teach real courses with value.I am sure Joe Biden likely did attack Tara, and the media and female Dems, and Me Too movement, have now been shown clearly to be total biased hypocrites. Joe can hide in his basement, but Tara is not to be stopped. The NY Times just blew away the Dem talking point trying to use a false version of the story to claim Tara’s story is all false, which then, combined with the tape, forced the media to have to pay attention finally. Pelosi even sited the NYT as her basis for believing Joe. They just made it worse for themselves. How is Kamila going to explain this away after her attacks on Kavanaugh.The Larry King tape is the death knell. What is being hidden at the U of DL in those old files? I bet the ethics complaint she filed is there. The next you will hear is, Trump was also accused of bad acts, so Joe is not as bad as he was, and the female Dems will suddenly excuse him, but not Kavanaugh. Next up is the Flynn case followed by the Durham report which will devastate the Dems and dominate the news in mid-summer. Then the indictments of top Obama officials will happen and overwhelm any chance the Dems had to win in November. In 2024 Ron DeSantis, governor of FL, will run for Republican presidential candidate against Nicky HaleyMy take is the author is not an investment banker economist and from their perspective they are right. Totally right. The RISK of system failure in my perspective remains SUPER HIGH RISK today. My last post told you my WHY.
Be: Grateful for PEACE today and every day in PANDEMIC bless PEACE Between us all…..that is our wealth ….our PEACE
PS: I remain grateful with services to 200 nations I spend most of my life serving on stages which I long to get back to – that I am an AMERICAN residing in PANDEMIC inside the one nation best suited to lead a better way forward – GOD BLESS AMERICA AND ALL HER LEADERSHIP TODAY.