DEBT LOADING – SWEEPING MARKETS – THUMBS UP THUMBS DOWN ?
The markets across the world are split today. Why?
Almost 5 trillion dollars of bond market paper has to be repaid over the coming 60 months. Frankly I don’t worry too much about that. I land on the side of the market that is yawning on the sixty month due and payable bond debt that must be repaid in 60 months.
Over the past sixty months 3.7 trillion was successfully repaid or refinanced. The market absorbed almost 4 trillion in the past sixty months. A larger more robust global economy can absorb 4.7 trillion in the coming sixty months in my opinion. A large % of economist disagree with those of us that believe as I do.
They cite various data points on their – worry charts – as to their why they worry. They worried in the last sixty months. They worry in the coming sixty months. Their worry list have changed however.
What is bothering them is diverse. They alert that the worst of the Triple B credit is over a trillion and they anticipate default pressures rising in that bottom group. Although they did reasonably well- in the past sixty months the worry worts feel the next sixty months will be different. They worry that a serious down turn to the longest expansion cycle ever and the uncertainty in global trade Deals and the various global elections has a larger worry weighting to their charts than our charts.
They also point to wheel wobbles that bother them as rising concerns across the global landscape of debt weighting. The worry trackers are focused on the multiple runs in recent weeks on regional small banks in China. These flash runs on the banking system occurred without warnings and the insolvent banks could not manage the runs and the banks were closed.
A similar contagion is taking place and growing in India with multiple FLASH RUNS on banks and closures. Lebanon banks have been mostly closed over the past ten days and massive deposit withdrawal pressures and bank runs are precluded only by currency withdrawal restrictions into the entire Gulf banking system in Lebanon. Riots are occuring. The government instability is a worry as in Lebanon the entire system is at risk. The central bank saying over and over the system and banks are solvent there is no worry is not resolving the panic in that nation.
The worry chart folks feel a whisper away may flow in BRITT EXIT banking as they worry the regional contagion and flash runs is something new and may be beyond national control given electronic instant sharing of any bad news.
While no one can predict new future outcomes to events which are SUPER CHANGE EVENTS – never seen before on these related scales the system globally is demonstrating sufficient resiliency that panic to the worry chart side at least at year end 2019 seems unworthy.
The GLUT Of oil as demand falls off the enormous cliff of the sea change away from toxic petro energy fuel and product lines, at a pace beyond any prediction, leaves inflation due to rising energy cost, a fiction. The lower cost of everything ( energy ) speaks well for developing nations global economics and debt repayment in the forward sixty months as it has been in the past. The additional rise of one trillion to be repaid in the coming sixty month cycle is modest to the elevation of GNP and elevated economic activity world wide to the prior window of time. New normals.
Is we open the sovereign nation debt loading as another category of world debt loading, the worry chart folks define the impossibility of forward liquidity consumptions to the circulations required to manage marginal sovereign debt weighting across the world. China being a leading worry but many creditors of China aggregating into chartable worry considerations. The worry chart folks point to the 100 trillion in public debt to bail out bad bets in the 2007 economic disaster they present – has never been really solved.
They point to the global banking system now relaxing disclosure and regulatory laws related to structured asset debt loading. The notion that pools of real estate mortgages should be mixed – say sub prime crap credit to AAA office leased high raise mortgages – and then add into the pools student loan credit and auto loan credit with nations under bank pressures to relax rules from 2007 creating scrambled eggs again – where no one can assess real credit quality is a worry item to the worry charters.
While we appreciate profits made in scrambled omelet pools – super pools – super dupe pools that created the horror of the abuse and Super Crash of 2007 should not be repeated – we see the profits are driving the regulatory argument.
Our worry revolves as our readers known of our concerns for the central banks being owned as private non government stock firms, by the banks the central banks are supposed to regulate? As this 1900 antique obsolete model of monetary construction we feel is a failed model altogether – we have from 2010 to 2020 within the two books:
Redemption the Cooperation Revolution
SUPER CHANGE ( Just out at Amazon )
Both best sellers upon release – sought to argue for a merger of central banks back into state treasury. Todays real time AI tools to manage monetary policy within state over sight are far more desirable than the conflict of interest of central banks designed to maximize profits for banks – with risks that create the SUPER CRASH abuse issues we chart from 1907 to today without one grade of A with all central banks receiving F grade.
Public economic ignorance presents a fraud of lies to the public on monetary policy and the few law makers bought and paid for by criminal banks have no way to move forward indpendantly. Independance from Central Banks means zero check and balance to any over sight – they permit the abuse that tax payers go in debt ( debt to the central bank itself ) to bail out bad debt risks of the criminal bankers that own the central bank system.
What universe in 2020 would permit such an abusive system?
The current account abuse of economics is remedied by merging the central banks into the state treasury. The opposition to doing this economic sanity from insanity is PROFIT. The central bankers control the most profitable system of legal theft of the wealth of nations and every other wealth modality.
Eventually the public will learn and discover the truth. The ONE FRAUD that threatens us all economically is the failed criminal central banking fraud. Central banking – like the federal reserve board is a gang of crooks – engineering the greatest fraud on the people of the world in history. Why? Profit. Greed. All criminals operate in a greed that lacks a moral compass.
When you see FED CROOKS speaking – translate their statements to FRAUD AND LIES. That will help YOU see on the other side of the looking glass Alice.
Berny Dohrmann – A YEAR END NOTE ON THE ECONOMIST DEBATE AT YEAR END ON GLOBAL DEBT LOADING
The FED – the tax payers —- get the picture ?