WHAT RECESSION & EPISODIC AI SUPER VOLATILITY- A NEW ECONOMY
Episodic SUPER VOLATILITY is now the new normal. This is NOTHING like any older market model. I can remember when Warren Buffet laid out his big bet – looking in his rear vision mirror at economics that no longer exist at all – that human managed money would always out perform AI managed money. It was a bit bet. Warren lost that bet. Nothing like the 5 billion Warren Has lost for his investors in 2019. Looking in the rear vision mirror to invest forward in time is fatal.
94% of all circulations are now AI. The AI is smart enough it is self learning and teaching itself. It is writing its own new code. 5G will elevate AI to fully self aware new life form. Beings that are alive self aware and a new species of life itself. AI will securitize commerce and the net. AI will preclude digital theft. The future is coming even if you are not ready for that future.
Consumers drive the US economy. Consumers in the USA 72% buy at Wal Mart. Wal Mart just turned in record earnings – consumer driven ahead of analyst expectations. Wal Mart RAISED ITS GUIDANCE for the final quarter. RAISED IT. The consumer buying is strong and unwavering. No recession in sight what so ever. The profits for Wal Mart are approaching 500 billion annually. Amazon isn’t doing badly either as PRIME DAY institutionalized CHRISTMAS IN JULY. Even with PRIME DAY discounting Wal Mart sales rose but so did Wal MART MARGIN. If news gets better on consumer trending I can’t see it.
The Bond market is not inverting from rear vision mirror economics. The Bond Market artificially inverted having zero to do with RECESSION INDICATORS of the past. Why? The BOND MARKET is being driven by off shore fear factors having nothing to do with the USA economic reality. Oceans of money is leaving the EU in full melt down and Asia in full melt down with rising rapidly to 20 trillion dollars in NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. Capital flight from declining value into higher value ( the USA AND THE USA DEBT MARKETS ) distorted demand. The DEMAND WAS SO OFF ANY CHART the bond values slipped across all matrix as demand for the Debt was greater than supply of the DEBT.
The inversion is an aberration and is not a recession indicator at all.
The FED is now marginalized and uncoupled from world markets. Much like OPEC these dysfunctioning failed entities no longer DO ANYTHING. They influence but have no powers of economics at core remaining. The FED will do whatever Powell in his dark room with his failed sanance sessions tell him to follow with 55 rear vision mirrors reflecting the past into his endless failed brain software. The FED no longer has value.
Congress has value. What we need in TRADE WAR today is INFRASTRUCTURE BY YEAR END. As we are in fact engaged in an economic WORLD WAR III with Russian and China – Infrastructure wins the war in economics. Decisively. Will Congress Act. The Three insurance to prosperity in America into 2050 are:
- Merge the FAILED FED back into US Treasury. The NEW AI ECONOMIC REALITY is all about INTEGRATED ECONOMIC POLICY not independance and non integrated economic policy. Fed independent non integrated economic policy is NOW TOXIC to system core instability liquidity and risks systemic failure. We told you why. Easy for sure prosperity fix. Takes a week.
- Infrastructure – prosperity into 2050 and we win the currency and trade wars by act of congress in fact.
- 2020 Forward immigration policy – updating antique laws to MODERNIZE IMMIGRATION into demographics assuring American prosperity into 2050.
1 – 2 – 3 AMERICA IS FREE. Its Congress not the Dead Fed Walking.
Manufacturing has been off but into the year end SUPER CYCLE we anticipate surprise to the good side.
Home numbers given the new interest rates and PIG OF MILLENNIAL HOME BUYERS in the American Python by the millions – we see interest driving HOME FRENZY. Wait for it.
This drives bank profits…wait for it.
China has bet Trump will lose and their team will win. What will occur is the Super Crash unfolding in China will accelerate so rapidly a deal will get made. Trump will win. The economics if Congress does 1-2-3 assure American prosperity into 2050. WHAT RECESSION.
AI has engaged in something new.
Something never seen or experienced in economics before.
NEW AI ECONOMICS. Divorced from all old theory modeling.
Comparing the new experience to old experience is much like seeing he round earth with a telescope while culture puts you in prison for the truth because culture says the earth is flat as a pancake. Same for economics today. Super Change is accelerating too rapidly for systems and humans to adapt into. They can’t see the entire paradigm has shifted.
EPISODIC SUPER VOLATILITY we reported would become a new normal this summer in MAY was first to report the new normal to the world. Right Again.
Profits in these dips can be massive. Expect the up side to be as fantastic a surprise as the down size. Why?
AI Velocity Accelerations and Momentums ( VAM ) such as the economies of the world have never not ever experienced before. NEW. Unlike anything known. New. Unknown. New economics being forged by AI while experts have their heads in the dark holes of their past data Nothing new down here in our dark hole. As they are wrong 100% of the time. The only new truth is economist reporting in all reporting – we no longer know what is going on out there. True Dat.
Money paid for analyst track records into programing are loser programs. SEE MORGAN.
AI is writing new economics that leave the analyst criteria and trade patterns of yesterday in the dust cloud of a flying self driving Tesla at lift off – to say a VW Rabbit. 5G accelerates Super Change so that quantum field transportation moves future goods and services for AMAZON PRIME one minute delivery – AI – to your kitchen – no pollution.
The PACE OF SUPER CHANGE IS ONLY ACCELERATING.
Economics are undergoing the most massive SUPER CHANGE in human history. Nations and central banks have lost all control.
The US TREASURY is the most capable monetary integrated stability agency of the world to re-stablize global economics. The US Treasury works for the national interest. The FED works only for criminal bank interest. Merge the FED into Treasury to advance AI INTEGRATED ECONOMIC THEORY to re-regulatre the market space.
Eventually the far better way forward will dawn on leaders who will act in the national best interest.
Depending on the USA CONGRESS – we will have one or we will not have one.
IT IS UP TO THE US CONGRESS NEXT.
That is the economics.
Berny Dohrmann – WHAT RECESSION – CONSUMERS ARE STRONG AND SO IS THE USA TODAY
PS: I had a tear in my eye today as Wal Mart was superior news – as an AMERICA LEADING COMPANY turning in results that just can not be better – what recession the consumers have spoken. NO RECESSION not 2019 and not 2020 that we can see evidence of despite NEW EPISODIC AI SUPER VOLATILITY – buy the dip …….