SUPER VOLATILITY – AI ECONOMICS & TRADE WARS – WEEKEND

What is at risk?

China’s credit rating and borrowing cost up next. China borrows 300% more than it earns. This UNSUSTAINABLE economic borrowing will create a China Super Crash. The only question remaining is when. A trade deal postpones the Super Crash in China and may resolve it over time. If the Super Crash comes in 2019 or 2020 the entire financial system is a SUPER HIGH RISK of contagion and Debt Default Cascade. The Chinese SUPER DEBT BUBBLE is the economic PIG in the world system python. Counter party agreements between lenders make the China DEBT BOMB a rapid count down to system failure potentials as warned by the IMF.

China spend a year negotiating a 150 trade deal. China Communist next changed all 150 pages going back on every line item. Donald Trump appropriately slapped tariff’s as a RED LINE point in time to tax China goods as USA goods are already taxed – reciprocity trade tax – as a cost to bad faith dealings between nations.

Last week China top 100 Public firms reporting as the nation of China approaches their winter months with massive slow downs any, in annual audits of these firms, that over six billion dollars of cash was now missing from their accounts as in vanished. No other news is available as China is not transparent in economics but is opaque. No one can rely on Chinese reporting accuracy as to GNP or any of their listed firms real economic position. Investing in China is SUPER HIGH RISK.

The trade war is causing a run out of China. This week American and Japanese and EU firms stopped supplying parts and trading with Huawei the worlds second largest smart phone company, having ripped off Apple IP as Tim allowed China to reverse IPHONE engineering and patents and steal US technology. Apple is paying a enormous cost today for their CHINA BET.

China is having a RUN on their nation. Trillions of cash has left the nation. The shrinking dollar account, once 3.7 trillion and rising is now under 1.2 trillion and falling like a brick in free fall. When China runs out of US dollars the real pain begins. When China Credit Rating is downgraded their cost to borrow that 300% annual debt cost may trigger debt defaulting cascades such as the world has never known.

China communist are deluded and President XI is running out of time. Communist economists are failing to accommodate their current debt loads. China planners use endless new debt their news calls stimulus, spending far more than they earn in revenue, to accomodate attempting to forestall massive pending lay off’s and economic contraction.

China has been a down graph for 25 years with a growth economy rising to 25% a year annual GNP growth to only 5% today and falling. Growth in China has stopped like it hit a brick wall. Growth in China is falling. Folks you can’t pay rising soaring debt cost with declining income and revenue over time lines like 25 years. Economic abuse of this magnitude has never occured in a nation and must one day rebalance.

China is facing without an immediate trade resolutions with the USA a massive SUPER CRASH that will overwhelm Chinese economic planners. Why? They reside in an old world of opaque obsolete economic reporting modeling. The world today is controlled entirely by AI ECONOMICS a new economic unfolding as AI evolves, managing 440 trillion dollars outside nation and government or central bank control.

Pretend the central bank of China controls circulations of 3 trillion Chinese phony currency, the yuan. Which has fallen in value without let up since the trade war started and the US dollar has been soaring. This makes Chinese good cost lower than the US dollar by more than the tariff’s charged. However as this continues the Yuan creates a SUPER CRASH and a super inflation. CHINA HAS NEVER EXPERIENCED A HARD SUPER CRASH LANDING as in 2008 and China can not survive such a SUPER CRASH in economic terms.

AI controls 440 trillion dollars. AI economics is creating the following economics:

  1. A GLOBAL world wide tsunami of water leaving China ( capital and investment ) never to return if trade war continues. The error Chinese planners fail to see at all.
  2. The water ( capital ) is flowing out and the once circulation vitality of Chinese economics is now dry land without capital circulations in the never ending tide out of China for capital.
  3. This creates the DRY LAND of SUPER CRASH and DEBT DEFAULTING CASCADES which is only requiring a trigger event – the point of no return.
  4. China is unaware as the AI economy is new and unlike any prior economic model – that – an economic SUPER CRASH is a matter of TIME and that time IS running out altogether.
  5. China is facing a Super Crash of demand – of capital – drying up coming in and a TSUNAMI flowing out. No nation can survive AI capital punishment to their markets over TIME.

China insulted the USA by providing no courtesy or warning that they were by a bank wire to US Treasury reneging on 100% of what had been agreed upon as to critical path terms for a trade agreement with a year and 1000 folks on both sides working 7 days a week on the 150 page completed agreement. Both sides had said in their press we are close. China lied to the US misled the US dealt with the US in total disrespect.

CHINA IS GAMBLING THEY CAN MANIPULATE THE ELECTION INTO 2020 INFLUENCE VOTERS IN AMERICA AND CREATE TRUMP MOVING OUT COORDINATING ALL THIS WITH THE DEMOCRATS BETTING FANTASTIC ECONOMIC FUNDING TO OPPOSE TRUMP AND THAT AS A REWARD THE NEW PRESIDENT OF THE USA WILL SUCK THEIR DICK. CHINA IS BETTING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE AS STUPID AND BRAIN WASHABLE AS THE STATE CONTROL MEDIA HAS FOUND THIER OWN BRAIN WASHED POPULATION WITH ITS CULTURE POLICE.

Trump responded by placing a serious damage to China economics. The next step of never ending insults from China will be appropriate tax costing to all China Goods. American’s will stop buying China anything soon enough. China will stop buying US goods soon enough. Over time without a trade deal IN TIME this consumer ATTITUDE will Trump AI economics. AI as yet can not predict or understand human behavior accurately enough. AI lacks emotional considerations for how American’s and Chinese FEEL from the state manipulations in media.

The world is inside a REAL FULL ON TRADE WAR THIS WEEKEND as President XI states there will be NO FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS with the US until the US adjusts its bad behavior – which is an insanity. President XI has economic consequence for BAD FAITH DEALINGS WITH AMERICA and such BAD FAITH DEALINGS must never occur without such consequences.

President XI economic advice is simply bad advice and not accurate. China will SUPER CRASH if the Trade war Continues. The likely unfolding events:

  1. Markets will enter SUPER VOLATILITY such as the world has never known.
  2. China markets will contract to levels unseen in modern times.
  3. A sharp versus slight adjustment down of China credit rating is so long over due.
  4. The IMF may remove China Yuan from its basket and they should and they made an error taking the phony currency in anyway – 6 Billion of cash in two firms is gone – come on folks?
  5. A run out of China by core industry is moving to other nations never to return.
  6. China currency and markets will SUPER CRASH
  7. Debt Defaulting cascade will TSUNAMI destroy the economic landscape in China

Even wars will not help China as it is already too late.

The entire world is done with China cost of doing business, China theft of IP by state policy, and China being itself the BAD BOY NATION of shady dealings. Dealing with China is like dealing with the Mafia only the Mafia keep their word much better than China.

China media manipulation is not even working IN CHINA. Why?

Blogs banned like this item, get into China and circulate. You can not place an IRON CURTAIN around information and real data today.

Can you imagine if Apple and GM had six billion of cash disappear up in smoke – gone – for shareholders in one year with zero explanation? That one day of news is all you would see? No explanation. No jail. No anything. Just SIX BILLION IN CASH IS GONE and back to America must change its bad behavior ( doing what we said – if you deal in bad faith there will be consequences for business as usual ).

Trump gave China 90 days. In 90 days or befor massive new tariff’s come into play for China full on trade war firing over and over at the US in POINT BLANK RANGE. BAM. BAM. BAM.

In 90 days their largest state run business, controlling absolute information for all cultural activity from Huawei, will find the phone maker critical parts and software from Android Qualcomm and many others stops. The result is a hair trigger to CHINESE SUPER CRASH with 100’s of millions looking for work that is not coming back.

The problem today is Chinese growth has STOPPED on a TRUMP BUMP.

The TRUMP BUMP is creating a free fall in economic outcomes the Chinese going into WINTER ( Look what winter effects had on USA economic outcome ) will only magnify the flight speed downward. The combined economics of losing their national Chinese bad credit rating to worst credit rating is chilling. If you are struggling to pay your worlds highest debt SUPER BUBBLE, and the cost of borrowing on that massive DEBT SUPER BUBBLE soars, right as income in the nation falls off a cliff, and the borrowing is raising upward like a debt TSUNAMI something has to give.

AI is speeding up the RUN OUT OF CHINA. Companies are leaving in droves and new companies are on pause to come in. Capital is flying out – three trillion dollars in the past year and picking up enormous speed today. Couple this with failed May Britt Exit and EU debt super bubbles from Italy to Spain and more China may trigger an EU break up.

All this is an AI new landscape for SUPER VOLATILITY. Here is what is for sure. You can bank on this in our opinion moving forward:

  1. No chart of trend you knew makes sense today.
  2. The world is in a new economic environment that is punishing for error in time frames never seen before in downward time frame moves and rewarding performance in upward time frame moves.
  3. As the truth about China becomes more appreciated capital will fly into the USA the only solid bet remaining in the world.
  4. The USA dollar will soar in value.
  5. China is approaching a SUPER CRASH like the world has never seen before.

The GPS maps China is using to manage its economic path ways is a phony map and China is racing off a cliff with no bottom to it. Time IS running out.

America wins with a trade deal.
America wins if China Super Crash.

Is there any scenario where America does not win?

None.

Is there any outcome in which China wins without a trade deal.

None.

China in Super Crash may resort to wars to effect distraction to its own people from riots if they understood their leadership is the one and the only cause and has lied to them. China insulted the USA not the other way around and the insult continues to remain the worst behavior of any nation on earth.

China has a new truth. China can in 2019 not LIE ITS WAY FORWARD TO ITS OWN PEOPLE.

That day is over. The political volatility in China has not begun …just wait for it.

Berny Dohrmann – SUPER VOLATILITY IS HERE AS “NEW” IN AI MARKETS IN 2019