EVERYONE HAS AN OPINION ON THE MARKETS THIS WEEK …..
Folks, everyone is turning in review on the market. The expert flow is:
- Trump is posturing
- The Chinese are still coming
- If they cancel it will change market issues
- If they come the market dropping 450 points and coming back to only 200 points – points is made rise on Friday so back to Thursday of last week numbers – not too bad.
- If China has hard deal terms Trump see’s as talk versus DO points – all bets are off
So no one knows.
What we know is – Trump and America have a full economic deck of incredible robust economics to America’s strong economy – China has lost trillions since the trade war and lost almost 10% of its internal market wealth and value Monday and Tuesday. China is SUPER CRASHING without a TRADE DEAL.
Did Trump call his golf buddy President XI and say – look I”m going to take the agenda away from Nancy Pelosi and issue this sound bite – not to worry lets make our Friday deal? If he did one might see under the carpet of these kinds of affairs as a leading source for small business legislation and outcomes – as CEO SPACE see’s possibilities. There are many others along this line.
Public policy is complex.
It is our opinion that:
- China is not dealing in change that is meaningful enough to mean anything at all.
- American loses almost 1 trillion dollars a year in buying from China more than we sell to China.
- This creates American bankruptcy if unresolved – but slowly – so its hard to see the pain coming.
- Trump is closing the Trade GAP one way or the other after 50 years of talk going no where at all
- China stuck between factions in nation may think they can do better by calling Trump’s bluff?
If China deals in non substantial terms, Trump will levy the full boat of Tariff’s which puts billions back into US Treasury. In the past not one time flew into US Treasury from China to conduct UNFAIR AND IMBALANCED TRADE WITH US PROTECTING ITS OWN INDUSTRY FIRST ALWAYS. The trade issues are:
- Opening China to no tariff trade for American goods and balance by China buying as all industry is China is STATE OWNED OR INFLUENCED 100% – it is communism – so state BUYING a Trillion more each YEAR than they buy today offsetting America rising trade and keeping the trade BALANCED by agreements that are enforceable.
- Rule of LAW – no more stealing American Trade Secrets and inventions period. Which theft has driven the China miracle.
The culture of unfair trade is part of China way of thinking. Adapting a new way of thinking as the Chinese do not THINK LIKE AMERICANS THINK at all. Different goals and aspirations. Can these issues really resolve?
We think given the CHINESE FACTIONS that it is unlikely. President XI wants to cooperate on all this for all the economic right reasons but hard liner communist in China hate America Hate Trump and Hate this trade weakness – in a nation where saving face is everything – bending on to you knee for Trump is not likely in China.
Can a real deal arise soon?
Is trade creep to weaken and dilute the proposed deal – likely – we think yes?
Will such self dealing in very bad faith from China result in Trump pulling the tariff trigger which much of the TRILLION trade red ink goes away on Friday – we think yes.
Can a real trade war unfold and real shooting war?
We have naval assets defying China illegal sea claims upon the ocean owned by many nations under maritime rule of law – 400 years of law – defined by unanimous court order by the WORLD COURT that China acted ILLEGALLY IN ITS CLAIMS FOR THE CHINA SEA WHICH HAVE ZERO LEGAL STANDING. Enforcing that claim is yet to come. China and President XI said – we are dedge filling islands all over the China Sea for trade not military. Every island was then built up as military with air to sea and air to air missile launch advanced weaponry why? To make an entire ocean open to all nations such that only China controls that ocean? NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN. XI LIED.
That lie is tied to trade deals. The deals must be enforced so if XI lies again American has recourse. Trump is making sure.
You get a flavor on this when Schumer the head AMBUSH TRUMP EVERY CHANGE YOU GET stated to AMERICA MEDIA AND NEWS TODAY – PRESIDENT TRUMP HANG TOUGH ON CHINA and democrats unite as Americans almost as one behind what is obvious – we can’t be CHUMP CHANGE moving forward.
The USA has done a lot for China. China has benefited on a scale of we sell one dollar to them we buy one trillion dollars to one dollar from them. Ah this doesn’t work economically long term. Let me get a Chinese abacus out and score this up over 30 years say since Nixon?
HAND TOUGH TRUMP says the head democrat.
Berny Dohrmann – MARKETS – NOT SO BAD TODAY – BUT ITS WILD OUT THERE WE”ll SEE
PS: Warren Buffet said at his shareholder meeting that stocks given interest great pause and low levels are CRAZY INSANE CHEAP TODAY AND BUYING AMERICAN STOCKS – IS THE DEALIE TODAY ! HE IS BUYING IN THE CHINESE DIP PERHAPS YOU MIGHT AS WELL…..