THE NEW AI ECONOMY IS A WORLD COMING APART TO THE OLD ECONOMY?
Well the WORLD “IS” coming apart world wide as the NEW ECONOMY the AI economy like a giant global pack man is devouring the old economy charts play books and rules. So pundits tell you keep your powder dry and high. Wise advise at the end of any boom. We are now in the longest boom cycle in record record keeping for humanity – which frankly compared to ROME to NOW is not all that LONG as data did not exist in olden times. Digitizing 100’s of years of warehouse records – who keeps 100 year and older records – and pays for it? No one?
So the old economy was paper. Common outcry drove asset class market prices. Then trades became real time and digital as computers took over. Only the risk of an EMP Pulse from the Sun – from our weapons – from a star burst event outside our solar system – would destroy 100% of our data on the earth and satellites in the earth. That is right one powerful EMP pulse – and terrorist can make those weapons easily really – its on the net easier than a nuke or bio terror . The size of a container and say New York is data evaporated and all electronics including cars trains planes ships tele communication computers credit card records banks real estate records who owns what and so forth – all gone. No rebuilding either. Not anytime soon. EMP.
Now comes AI and EMP is the real enemy not Human’s to AI and its future. But AI may not be smart enough ( yet ) to realize that. When it is hardening EMP will become the item. We wrote a White Paper to the former Chief of Staff who as a general we suspect failed to even tell President Trump we wrote him. We sent him a white paper on the new priority policy MARS. Mutually Assured RECONSTRUCTION from say an EMP pulse event – a Putin First Strike – or the inevitable of an incoming impact event as that is coming for sure. One time soon. We just do not know when. In earth years it could be 100 million years or 100 million minutes. Do we prepare and create say:
- Under Water Cities with Geodesic domes as Bucky Fuller imagined supporting 100 billion without earth issues of any nature?
- Do we create detect and deflect systems?
- No facing total extinction from Climate Change and our own distractions we invest 7 trillion dollars this year alone in AI for self driving transportation.
It seems priorities are not exactly in the right position. Today nations are passing laws to regulate your privacy and IT itself. Only the law makers are viewing old antique problems inside a SUPER Change Hour Glass. They lack the ability to see – forward in time or into SUPER CHANGE to make predictive and forward inclusion laws. Their old laws related to old issues already SUPER CHANGED into a host of new problems and issues. Change is occurring too rapidly for human systems ( congress ) to adapt new laws that work.
In the New Super Change Age laws are local. Transactions and the future of AI is in the cloud. The Cloud is its own nation without borders. Unless the G 100 sets up a treaty policy over all G 100 nations – regulating in local laws while trades are exempt via loop halls, with multi nations sited in most friendly nations and these corporate legal complex structures are themselves LOOP HOLES. The laws come down by Mark Gates and Paige and Bezo need not worry as these laws WILL NOT APPLY TO THEM via loop holes.
Tampering with IT can create soaring cost where IT that was FREE is a historic memory like Buzz Light year the face of my IWATCH today….to infinity and beyond………
So the old rules and box top instructions for the old economy are literally coming apart. What was up is down. What is down is up. Old charts say this and that is the future and the AI markets prove them wrong writing new futures.
HERE IS WHAT IS GOING ON OUT THERE TODAY:
Earnings are pouring in. The winners making their estimates ( by others ) win and AI pushes their stock way up – see Morgan and see Tesla and see a long list on FAANG. All up buble. The old pundits say IPO values are too high today – AI suggests they are not even begun to rise.
Losers are punished far too much. AI is too fast to punish. AI lacks capacity to implication of the data. Humans understand implication better than but trading price in all asset classes is in casino capitalism manipulated by 440 trillion of AI controlled trading. AI now has its own ETF in POT and that is soaring as an asset class.
Ai sets trading ranges for high and low. Than over time unless major fundamentals shift and AI is watching those in real time like no human ever could – adjusting portfolios in the mirco – soft shifts and manipulations – into which price ranges harden. The goal of AI is to create market of RISK LESS RISK. Can AI do it? We don’t know yet. Nice goal though. Is the AI market more or less safe than the prior old economy IT market of 2008?
It is our opinion AI even in its primitive forms today – dumb AI but getting smarter – has created a safer market place in only 60 months. AI tends to adjust GE downward punishment rapidly as GE turns around which it is – and stock in GE is THE MARKET BARGAIN. Always buy the dip once you have enough information. Avoid buying the high.
Buy low and SELL HIGH.
When your at peaks – sell – and wait for the next dip. Buy Apple like I did at 157 dollars in the DIP I told you to buy into and I did myself. Do not buy the all time peak although Apple is going to 400 dollars trust me and all FAANG STOCKS along with them. These massively diversified income machines with 1 billion in their Kingdoms at Google Face Book Amazon Uber and Pinterest and Twitter are new non government institutions that today are investigated for manipulating outcomes to the American and other global elections from their Kingdoms.
OIL is at new peaks based on what? Saudi cut oil by one million barrels only cheating is not arriving at that cut. Venezuela is down as is Libya but that was market factored in. Iran sanctions are impacting Iran not at all yet. Iran is selling to those who care less about US Sanctions. Iran is under two million barrels a day trying to return to 5 million barrels a day. Saudi is at 9 down from 10. The USA is up from 10 to 12.7 and rising to 15 million barrels a day. The USA added 7 million barrels into the strategic oil reserves this past week – or we added from rising as winter leaves USA oil production – ONE MILLION BARRELS A DAY – More than OPEC Cut back just to our own reserve pile – and we can dump that back making fortunes – having bought most of it at 39.00 dollars to 50 dollars selling now at over 70 dollars. Windfall thanks to MBS. Trump can set oil any where he wishes any time he desires as TRUMP DUMPS and MBS has not seen that ace high card YET. TRUMP DUMP is the oil wild card. Why is this important?
The cost of everything in debt world – China spending 300% more than it makes – the IMF stating that borrowing in China is a risk to system collapse – IMF warned NIgeria no more loans from debt tsunami China – others are getting WARNING LETTERS as action is being taken – so the cost of everything in debt world is INTEREST from central bankers. The market and AI is driving interest up without FED interest rate rises. The new AI economy is behaving just as we cautioned you – OUTSIDE THE BOX POWELL EXPECTED. This means monetary policy is out of any control. The Court of last resort the Federal Reserve Board is dying in quick sand – failing to adapt to Super Change Economics and the entirely new never known before AI ECONOMY where AI now controls 440 trillion in capital flows, and the central banks are side bar witnesses now. Error in monetary policy is the largest single risk factor in 2019 and 2020 to system core risk. The Central Banks have been in utter SHOCK their economic one time first of a kind fiscal experiment is NOT working as the planners hoped. Why?
…..application of old economy tools into a capital flow market where 440 trillion in goods services and capital flows are all now influenced or directly controlled by new AI and the AI is rapidly evolving and getting so much “smarter” as the biggest capital diversion in mankind history – over 100 trillion dollars – is now flowing into the AI wars between nations and institutions….AI wars are creating an entirely new global economy the world has never known before. Central bankers tinkering can create AI unexpected outcomes. As they have been doing. THE GREAT PAUSE was just in time and the risk to the core system without the Fed GREAT PAUSE was gynormous. What went wrong? Bad policy that is old economy theory and tools into a new economy in which failed policies from the old economy are in fact TOXIC to the new economy. Said another way 66 Trillion of just Sovereign nation debt – and 100’s of trillions in consumer, real estate, commercial loan, auto loan student loans, credit card loans and shadow banking loans, all soaring, in scale and size, can not roll over from a decade of FREE MONEY at under 1% interest to 300% to 500% higher interest when that loan rolls over or is VRL ( variable rate lending ) to the new MARKET RATE. That failed policy triggers normalization too fast and the system fails as the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE can not longer be managed forward in time by AI……the FED correctly GREAT PAUSED. Just in the nick of NEW AI Economy time frame.
The two wild cards in global recovery world wide from the near terminal system failure from the abuse of mortgage lending into a world SUPER BUBBLE where utter crap was rated by a failed rating system ( the one we still use today which is criminal in systemics ) as AAA or worthy of institutional long term trust when it was economic sewage. No one went to jail.
The wild cards are as system killers:
- Interest normalization in time frames less than 15 years versus 15 months………
- Oil artificial price rises manipulating a tax like interest the world can’t at this time afford as trillions flow to the FEW against the MANY – less than 100 wealthy oil elites against 8 billion human beings.
Now oil is rising in price when the world is drowning in oil. Why? Criminal cartel manipulation.
Today Trump risks global recovery and economic growth to force Iran to a table to define a 25 page written agreement that stipulates:
- No Nukes ever in Iran
- No ballistic missiles that can reach the USA
Trillions pour into Iran if they hash out 25 pages of paper.
If they think their deal terms improve with nukes – they probably have bought one from South Africa, Pakistan, India, North Korea or Russia as they are all sellers for the right price in the new NUKE BASSAR that is rapidly rising to highest bidders. Nations with Nukes get better deals – or do they?
Trump is prepared to support the MBS vision of WAR with IRAN. It appears. The USA concludes Iran is the ground zero for terror in the Middle East.
We believe that position is largely from Saudi PR and MBS personally – four years now trying to start a real war with Iran. Saudi has been Iran’s mortal enemy. Iran has been defensive against Saudi. The question of truth in the middle East remains:
…..is it Saudi who in fact are the exporter of terror strategically …Bin Laden and his gang were Saudi’s ….the 9/11 Terrorist were led by Saudi’s – Iran fought by our side and died by our side defeating ISIS in Syria and without Iran in Syria the ISSI defeat would not be RIGHT NOW and that is FOR SURE….Saudi financed ISIS and Taliban and rebels killing Iran soldiers and US troops ……is IRAN unfairly branded when it is actually MBS and SAUDI who are the multiple heads of TERROR in the middle east……how much RISK exists the SAUDI Kingdom may be wiped out …..?
The new IRAN card is Trump simple:
- Develop a real solid 25 legal paper agreement on the items set forth here there are TWO.
- Prosperity follows signing
- Don’t and WAR follows and then we get the paper.
Either Way Iran is economically moved to civil war as economic collapse is coming…..within NEW SANCTIONS with zero tolerance and the world gets the importance of a real deal…..the sham deal was a sham as nukes were only off the table a few years…not really off any table for IRAN. Iran holds its people together in a decade of declining economics like Venezuela – inflation is soaring – currency is free falling – the nation in decline in revenues can not support a million person army and its military and when they miss pay checks all sorts of things can happen.
25 pages of ink and trillions flow into Iran.
it is not about face.
It is not about politics.
It is not about issues in the press.
It is about SAUDI AND IRAN and Iran security long term.
Iran does not trust America because America has signed deals and then backed out of those deals so many times.
Iran can however negotiate milestones to which economics must flow into Iran on time lines, or the deal does not stay binding. The USA wants time line verifications. Iran and the USA can become powerful alliances even with disagreements between the party within a new respect. One must be at a table to develop the new respect. The table must be Trump and the Leader of the nation. Will THAT unfold or NOT?
Iran asking for a summit is ideal. No conditions.
Like North Korea got.
If Iran takes more time the USA assumes they are getting a NUKE.
That leads to war.
if Iran shows any sign of movement toward a desired required ECONOMIC outcome to the decline in economics risking core system in Iran “revolution” ( unwanted by all nations today and unwanted in Iran ) – things will upbubble fast. If things do not move forward from Iran side things will move toward WAR fast. It is unlikely to vote a President out inside a war going on in real time.
So the economy of the world was for the first time GNP and economically affected by CLIMATE CHANGE WINTER to a first time record in 2016 – than we broke that weather winter record in 2017 and 2018 and again in 2019. First quarter earnings so far have STUNNED the experts. The majority of reporting demonstrated a robust winter economic no one anticipated.
Said another way – if things are this good in BOMB CYCLONE weather what will activity be like in Spring. There is a sling shot of pent up demand for housing, automobiles, durable goods, and flat screens. Everything is moving like bear grease on a money slide into the enormous money pool. Trillions on the side lines will trickled by billions back into markets as capital goes to WORK AGAIN. Capital is betting on AI driving the market to 30,000 DOW by 2021 and the ride along that pathology is GREEN LIGHT to invest.
Faang Stocks will soar driven by 5 G – Innovation – earnings – the run out of China and the run of the entire world back into the USA. Manufacturing is returning to the USA from new Trump tax and related economics – by the billions. It is cheaper to make it hear and distribute it hear removing the ever rising cost of shipping and supply line bottle neck costing. it is now economic to make products here and distribute products here. The New agreements with our American country neighbors is so improved for the USA over NAFTA so improved. The China trade deal is about to start and then Japan and the EU begin.
The USA is growing into 2021 and that tide will lift all boats in the world. The Wild Card is extended higher price oil – up 50% since October. As nations down in output – like Nigeria and Venezuela and many others elevate output and they all will the only issue is when – oil price looking ahead CRASHED to 45 to 55 market rate price as oil is plentiful renewing and the supply is greater than demand. Growth in oil demand has peaked last decade. Today from power – from transportation – from toxic products – demand for toxic oil solutions is FALLING OFF A CLIFF. No product has held promise for a decline of the magnitude of oil from now through 2050. The largest % of oil market share will crash on demand itself with soaring supplies where oil now so plentiful over demand will be market priced versus priced by criminal oil cartel OPEC. The day of those criminals taxing 8 billion is rapidly coming to a close. We have encouraged TRUMP TO DUMP as he uses his silver bullet against the living vampire KING MBS.
Shortly Kushner – new to Middle East Politics – will release his lifetime achievement – his MIDDLE EAST PEACE PLAN. With 50 years of experience with offices in the MIDDLE EAST for decades – may I put forth a risk that the back lash of the Kushner Plan “NOT” being accepted and with potential to unite factions against that plan – is the old normal in the Region. if Kushner breaks the OLD NORMAL things might flow in new directions. Iran not being involved is an issue as the community needs behind the release of the plan agreement before the plan comes to public review. Then we have congress hostile to Trump and we have the Gulf hostile to Israel. So the way things are unfolding I predict the back lash on the peace plan is a political risk to cost of oil and regional war.
All that is coming forward.
The Sky is not falling.
Yet the Old World Economics – is coming apart like the NOTHING eating at our own lack of imagination in the motion picture ( rent the film – as a good take on economics the old and the new AI Economics ) – THE NEVER ENDING STORY is the film name ….and those who have seen it recall the world the old world just flying apart. The New World of AI economics is not THE NOTHING in the film but it works just like THE NOTHING devouring all old economic policy errors – in giant gulps of capital. AI rewards or punishes nations with capital flows in our out of country. No humans direct this flow today it is all automation with AI not minds over MONEY. The evolution of AI trading is occurring and unfolding at the pace of the forward new age we reside within – SUPER CHANGE. In the SUPER CHANGE AGE – AI is evolving faster than human’s can adapt to the changes. Humans in mass dig in on the phrase…but that is the way we have always done it. We resist change as a risk. We resist revolutionary change because…..THAT IS THE WAY …WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IT. We seldom see change as improvement we see change as risk ..and humans in groups avoid risk.
In fact avoiding improvement in SUPER CHANGE is fatal and hanging on to obsolete systems or worse…inserting old economy policy tools and tactics into a new AI economy is toxic to the AI model and outcomes are never what the planners from the old economy….but that is the way we have always done it……become shocked at unexpected outcomes. Like the FED on interest rates becoming fatal to economic growth.
The world economically is caught in a vicious fiscal rip tide of the old economy dying and the new AI economy controlling 96% of all asset class prices and trading velocities. We have suggested a Hawaii big island ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION BY THE G 100 NATIONS over a three year time line to forge a new economic blue print for trade tax – wealth consolidation legal preclusions – speculation legal preclusions – all within a NO NATION LEFT BEHIND new GLOBAL – RE- REGULATORY FRAME WORK which today must be global as the new economy exists in the cloud outside jurisdictions of any one nation. So far no one has grasp the problem.
Who is working on the solution?
Who is working on global AI policy?
Who is working on global economic RE-REGULATION as we moved in the 1950’s from 2000 years of paper economic modeling into computer and IT economic modeling which held from the 1950’s into the 2000’s. In 2014 over 50% of all economic trading was AI. By 2019 five years later ( less than ) 96% of economic activity is AI. The AI is not the AI of 2014 or 2008. The AI controlling 96% of 440 trillion capital flows – is smart and growing smarter by the quarter. Who regulates the SOUL of this AI controlling the wealth of the world ….and who appreciates the risk taking place?
NO ONE. YET !
If you want to see how bad this all is – read Kevin Freemans GAME PLAN. In Game Plan this hedge fund thought leader defines how to create your own GAME PLAN of safe harbor because….your nation has zero game plan and no one is working on a game plan. Why is this so important today. As the entire world is falling apart in the old economy and the great NOTHING is in fact AI itself which like the great NOTHING in the NEVER ENDING STORY is digesting the old economy in giant bites retiring the old model for economics so as to be not recognizable in 2019.
GAME PLAN – Amazon Prime and if you have not read my work – REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION – ( always back ordered as five star but they fill those back orders fast folks order your copy ) – as Redemption presents solutions for your leadership …step by step fixes ….but time is running out …..which is the long term problem.
The NEW AI economy we feel will move the market to 30,000 DOW by 2022 at the latest or close to that date. Nancy and President Trump meet next to discuss infrastructure. We feel INFRASTRUCTURE will eventually pass congress as both parties want it pre election as their flag. Infrastructure will expand the current boom into 2030 in our opinion. As this unfolds oceans of the trillions on the side lines – flowing back in by a tricked now – will become a torrent soon. We feel the global expansion will unfold with America leading for years and years to follow.
For small business – noting CEO SPACE May 22nd in Dallas – hosts the leading BUSINESS ACCELERATOR Conference Press ranked in the world today. CEO SPACE believes Small Business should pull out all the stops to invest in better plans, better teams and missing resources ( with CEO SPACE this May in Dallas phone us for information 256 850 4715 the 30 year phone number that never changes serving 150 nations of our member business owners and heads of professional practices ). NOW in this SPRING it is time to invest for success – the # 1 priority is accelerating growth this Spring. Keep the longer term risks in mind but invest for success as these ARE THE GOOD TIMES WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR…..YOUR IN THE GOOD TIMES.
Final risk – as with 2008 – a digital attack weapon used by nations to attack our core markets. We have better cyber war fare tools to counter these attacks but the weapons are increasingly AI and nano. In 2007 we were blind sided by the first soverign nation digital attack on our markets. GAME PLAN and REDEMPTION are two books that document this economic pearl harbor we all lived through. WORLD WAR III began in 2007 and it was all DIGITAL AND AI. The FIRST EVER AI attack on a nation’s backbone. We barely survived. Who correctly knew it was a digital warfare attack first? We did. We advised the Presidents team and our blog published the first public we know of data on this digital warfare attack.
Digital Warfare is a SUPER CHANGE technology made possible as we leave the information age of computers and move into the communication age of AI.
AI digital warfare weapons are:
- Expressed without warning
- Scale the attack as it unfolds with AI in command of data and reaction
- Only are defeated by smarter AI and rapid legal reactions like banning short selling in 2008 ( our recommendation at that time ).
AI digital weapons are evolving.
Can the West withstand the next AI digital World WAR III – AI wars?
No one knows in the world of ….defense….that is the way we have always done it……..mind set. Read Game Plan as it is so well outlined into that mind set holding back a nation.
The old policy of MADD mutually assured destruction fails moving forward when Putin can deliver first strikes to our nation in 15 minutes. Our capacity to MADD them back may be in tact and may not be in tact with say Space EMP. America could be in the stone age in 20 minutes.
Mutually Assured Reconstruction – a MARS policy we sent to the White House and Joint Chief’s of staff. So far no reply from those that just know…that is the way we have always done it. Super Change with Putin has hacked our superior weapons and now Russia has the Weapons of ROME. How long before Rome Falls? How important is it to make cooperative versus competitive – sane versus insane – relationships with Putin and Iran? How dangerous if we do not?
The NOTHING IS tearing apart old economics – AI ECONOMICS is now in charge and never to release being in charge of global economics. The Regulatory Frame work to globally manage new AI economics – does not exist today – nor is anyone working on a new regulatory frame work. We have been calling for such a frame work upgrade for FIVE YEARS NOW. Eventually we hope to get traction and action on MARS and AI GLOBAL ECONOMIC RE-REGULATION.
Until then AI is unfolding and attempting to create a RISK-LESS RISK MARKET PLACE. Can AI do it? Will a warfare economic AI elevate WORLD WAR III digitally as in 2007 when the first such weapon was beta tested. Those who fired the AI weapon at his made trillions on our own pain loosing trillions.
That test almost terminated the old economic system at its core. It was close.
As Game Plan suggests – trust the outcome will be positive – invest for a boom into 2030 – stimulate your own growth in 2019 and 2020. Invest in acceleration. Make your # 1 priority accelerating your growth. Put blinders on the big risk and read this blog as we will tell you when things change and if things change at core.
Right now we have BOOM ON as the SPRING SLING SHOT moves all tides to high tide world wide and all vessels including your ships to SAFE HARBOR in the world wide economic expansion made possible by AI and in fact Trump policies that reflect AI awareness – as seen in AI support for those policies – as solid economics from the Trump Team. If you hate Trump revisit the Trump TEAM policies as those policies are working. Vote your wallet not your emotions.
The Election is coming and that will compliment AI and oil and interest effects moving forward as items to monitor. Yale economics leader Schiller states – Trump wins 2020 and markets move positively – Trump loses in 2020 and markets may crash in fact.
Far from a Trump supporter Schiller suggests we vote our wallet and re-elect Trump for economic prosperity.
That is all a long way forward so hold your vote high and dry and lets wait and see together.
I trust you no matter how you vote but I encourage in 2020 we all vote as it is important to the future.
THE NOTHING IS COMING. The danger is not voting and doing NOTHING.
Berny Dohrmann – VOTING FOR SOMETHING IN YOU – TO SPRING FORWARD FINANCIALLY WITHOUT DELAY !!!