GOOD FRIDAY AND CHINA IS GETTING CRUCIFIED ECONOMICALLY WHY?
We told you are Asia market peaks in equities and bonds to explore with licensed experts getting OUT of Asia. That was before the 40% to 60% market slide in those values. Did you get caught by reading but not taking action? Wow. Sorry.
We told you there is a run out of China. We told you THAT was inclusive of:
- China quality on products is no longer reliable
- China price savings are less than their neighbors
- China steals your IP and rips you off and sells under other brands
- China is hard hard hard to do business in – it takes long time and cost more massive more
- The reason to do business in China has shifted economically and other options are simply better
- There is a run out of China in capital in investment for the future in manufacturing – a giant sucking sound
- China is facing a SUPER CRASH as 300% borrowing per year over what China makes drives the engine today
How bad is China ( as investment banker economists ) DEBT – that we have warned about along with World Bank and IMF to change THAT economic before it changes CHINA – for FIVE YEARS. Screaming all of us together. We have offered to consult because their current advice is lacking. We have introduced SUPER BONDS as the one and only way to reset China debt and underwrite its forward infrastructure – and moving into 2020 – there is no more time. China reschedules its debt intelligently or DEBT DEFAULTING CASCADES will hard land China’s economy as a communist rebalancing – to all fiscal abuse – must one day occur and rebalance account.
What is driving the China watchers up a wall is the communist are not only over borrowing they are showing up to 100 trillion ( now this is not jam your English Muffin ) of bad non performing debts – as CURRENT ACCOUNT GOOD ASSETS. This phony balance sheet in 1000’s of SRO’s that run things in China – STATE RUN ORGANIZATIONS – no longer is sustainable in modern AI economics. The development of AI since 2014 controlling today 96% of all capital flows – over 440 Trillion is now effecting CHINA. AI is punishing China and no human is involved.
As is the case with central banks world wide and the Federal Reserve Board of the United States is NO ACCEPTION this Easter Sunday the old Economy of laws rules regulations and automation with computers managing paper trading and interactions between markets. These things are THE NEW ECONOMY and those who lead are in denial. They deny there is a new economy at their great peril into SUPER CRASH and WORLD WAR. AI doesn’t care about that. AI may as it becomes more self aware see humans as a threat and review its own profits from reducing human populations as THREAT to itself – distracting Humans into its WORLD WAR. It may seem appropriate to AI as they see no way out as we do outside SUPER BONDS that AI does not know ( yet ) is coming into the market place as a new sovereign bond class profiting the Super Money Pools and securing more TIME to work out of the economic abuse problem.
So leaders are:
- Spending under rules of an old economy that no longer exists
- AI is punishing errors in economics in all markets and rewarding economic outcomes in all markets at speed
- Low tide for capital investment manufacturing and more is sucking the water ( capital ) out of China – at speed
- China does not believe there is a NEW AI economic economy when they helped created it in the first place
- China operates with brains trained in the old economy – like walking when there is WOW a WHEEL now
- The new economy has new rapidly evolving box top rules one must understand to manage long term
- China debt economics drive employment and social stability while its facing economic hurricanes
The Economic Hurricanes in China are too many to list here. We have told you capital is moving out of China. New investment flows are too low to sustain growth. The run on China is like a run on banks. Money is moving out in massive sound bites as company after company leaves China. Leaves doing business in China. Leaves making things in China. Leaves investing in China. NEVER not EVER to return is the problem without massive economic reforms in China. China is too slow to accommodate the auspices required to turn this around. The problem is the economics are complex and driven over time periods where the fact of what is actually occuring is invisible to those making RIGHT NOW choices. China is also in trying to benefit nations globally caught with its political pants down.
In 2020 who would do business in any nation where you must share your IP with local partners who rip you off and operate their own brands against your brand from Amazon and Alibaba to Apple or McDonalds facing arches that are not their own. Why? Who? With so many options. As your Chinese middle class still LIGHT of 1.3 billion in nation – with say 300 million of that number in middle class and a billion in rice paddies still with roads to their location still dirt – seek higher incomes at middle class – China is no longer competitive in price and custs quality to make it work. This is over time running its customers out of nation because the quality is not long term reliable to specifications any longer. Like it always was it is again – China does not have a culture that gets IT. Today the CULTURE IN NATION is more important than a King A Dictator or a Democracy. Looking at how things work I think the best system is in fact a KING for eight years and a new election for a NEW KING. This idea is unlikely to catch on or a CEASAR double seat like Rome for eight years though verus life. In AI economies driving the new AGE OF SUPERCHANGE Democracies are becoming too slow to adapt to change. They are falling behind in fact. I love Democracy but until we have COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM as a GLOBAL CULTURE we have Competitive Capitalism ( broken and corrupt beyond measure stop denying that as every bank world wide in the system and leading companies from VW to Deutsche Bank have pled guilty to crimes that are so enormous they are all TOO BIG TO EVEN JAIL ). Can we do better than corrupt and always worse than capitalism in corruption communism. SOCIALISM in Norway is more COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM and it is working better than say the USA.
The USA is in danger too. Why? Education. Once in the top five in the world we are now under 30 and as our graduates no longer can out think graduates of those at the top we are slowing dying if we do not fix it. This week the head of BLACKSTONE listed out reforms to EDUCATION which are like Diamonds in the dirt today. THAT IS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS done it gets in the way Blackstones CEO suggested no income tax for our teacher class. That is a great idea but does not give us curriculum reform into real life entrepreneur tool and tactic skills and trade skills appropriate for todays market. We are turning out thumb clicking graduates who can not write a paragraph in long hand. We are turning out graduates who can not without massive retraining costs – exit into better lives. We are dying because of the CRISES OF EDUCATION. All forward wealth in the new AI economy is harvested in the mind field not the mine fields. That shift is AI. What are K -12 not graduating where they can program software – they are so good at it in those ages? Why are High School students not all enabled to basics of circuit board design and AI – AIA evolving so they are value based in mind capital? Without massive REFORM to SYSTEMIC EDUCATION ( see Harmony Schools in Dallas ) we are in fact dying. It’s a very slow death in America but it is fatal in China. Today. 2020.
China’s debt rubber band is stretched to the breaking point.
China is quit to point out they did one point better in GNP – slightly up in the first quarter over expectations – all China’s expectations. While numbers were down in America and the EU these countries were in climate Change WINTER as we reported. Their growth and numbers are in fact astounding considering THE CLIMATE CHANGE WINTER effect. China and China New Years ran into the summer sun shine and their numbers were up 1%. As their CLIMATE CHANGE winter hits CHINA watch out and DUCK folks.
Also Criminal OPEC raising energy prices artificially in the old economy modeling. We will cut back to raise prices in economics of the FEW against the many – say less than 100 against 8 billion. Creating starvation shelter insecurity and health insecurity for billions while they restrict the most plentiful asset on earth to MANIPULATE a phony price so they can live well like Kings and murder Khashoggi as if they resided in the DARK AGES OF KINGS. Denial will not cut it. They withdrew one million barrels a day. America added one million barrels a day to our own over stocked oil reserves of billions of barrels just last WEEK ALONE. What shortage? Artificial short term issues that will reverse so fast include Venezuela the largest oil reserve nation on earth down in production by 80% due to failure of communism as an economic system. Sorry Karl Marx your model has failed 100% of the time over 200 years now and the cost to humans ( SEE VENEZUELA ) is greater than capitalism upon humans by a scale of 90% dark side of the Force. As these nations return production – Lybia – Venezuela – Liberia – Iran – and the Gulf OPEC members losing so many customers forever throw in the MBS towel and secure their own market share – shift happens.
China seeing as they exit summer and move toward their own CLIMATE CHANGE WINTER and their OWN SLOW season – will see – after their worst Holiday ( 70% of all trade ) in modern years this last December – become worse in Holiday 2019 and 2020 – China is missing all growth it once knew – growth has stopped like a train hitting a mountain ( SUPER CHANGE TOO FAST FOR COMMUNIST PLANNERS TO GET THIS IS NOT A TRADE WAR TRUMP ONE OFF ) . As winter unfolds for China the freeze on economics is rolling down a hill like a giant economic snow ball. As Oil rises ( if it rises ) for even a short time – made possible because TRUMP FAILED TO DUMP say a million barrels a day MBS cut back from our reserves into the market at say $ 45.00 until market prices are at $ 55.00 say one week. If Oil is allowed by TRUMP to rise over 70 dollars as an ass lick to criminal MBS – CHINA gets RISK rising to the moon say. Thile their price protected contracts are nice the spot and related markets will kill CHINA economics.
Now then lets look at just today. Today we have this dark black CHINA GOOD FRIDAY ( the communist do not believe Christ Died and rose again – but billions do ) is the week the IMF ( no front page at all on this try and find it ) WARNED IN WRITING NIGERIA the number one economy in Africa – ( a chill to all of Africa ) to STOP TAKING LOANS FROM CHINA. China seeking to make Africa its MINERAL SLAVE through DEBT HALTERS – borrowing to lend – with already accounts in arrears and not paying – while China shows those bad loans as good assets – communist economics are not transparent or accurate they are communist opaque and manipulated. You didn’t know. So now China is seeing the IMF act after warning their debt was a RISK TO THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMIC SYSTEM. Why? Because their loans are syndicated to financial institutions world wide who hold the CHINA RISK. Those risk assets are now declining in value as AI understands the RISK. China debt assets are much like SUB PRIME and about to SUPER CRASH. Remember we warned you.
We told you industry was leaving China in record numbers. Today on the Holiday Weekend China has far from RISEN AGAIN on the third day Easter Sunday.
China see’s AMAZON ( not that is not one of the millions leaving China ) state – WE ARE CLOSING FOREVER OUR BUSINESS IN CHINA. Giant sucking sound as all those Amazon China clients were informed hey our business to you is now going all at once from your fruits to zero – we are with respect BOWING OUT OF YOUR COMMUNIST MODEL. Why? Because we can not MAKE MONEY IN CHINA like we do in every other nation. China in its present model is deteriorating at pace that over whelems China planners who are in denial. They say – thats one firm and the business just shifts to our own rip off firms. But it will not shift. It will decline. Add a million others all at once. How do you see 2020 as the math begins to flow beyond what China can report manage. Let me give you some sobering economics:
- A couple decades back in time – not long in economics – China was growing at 25% a year.
- For 25 years the graph is down line – turning red where the chalk broke on the China Blackboard as the line continues to the very floor. Children can you understand this economic trend in China – raise your hand ?
- Growth has stopped with a flat line around 6% a phony Communist number with real growth about 4% and declining fast.
- Growth is gone and China economics are in decline for 25 years and the pace of decline is now accelerating rapidly – the pace of loss IMF ( do no do more business with China Africa and no more loans ) – chilling a first in global economics – soon China will not be able to pay its enormous military outlays because China is going broke.
- China is facing a hard economic landing and an economic SUPER CRASH that will rippled all across the world. The only saving potential is a GREAT TRADE DEAL where yesterday is already….way too late and every day let alone week to sign it – hurts CHINA perhaps fatally in the wallet. Oil could tip them over thank you MBS. Without SUPER BONDS to reschedule China debt the outcome is simple – SUPER CRASH and WARS. Remember you heard that first here and for five years.
So on GOOD FRIDAY China’s economics were in fact crucified. Only no one rises on the third day.
Not in China.
Happy Holidays everywhere else where post Norte Dame we are taking this Holiday into our souls.
Berny Dohrmann – ON WHAT IS “REALLY” GOING ON …OUT THERE TRUST ME ON THIS DATA
PS: My famous father started training Chinese manufacturing on TQM process in the 1950’s. We love China and want only its best outcome. There is still time to turn this around but time – TIME – IS …running out very fast in Super Change.