TUESDAY – HUGE AMOUNT OF “STUFF” YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS WEEK !
Norte Dame Cathedral – Marks the Dead Center of Magical Paris sine 1100 to 2019 – Destroyed by fire. President Macon commits to rebuild Norte Dame as France has more than once. By the weekend a fund of 500 million dollars will be in place and rising to one billion with world wide donations. Today hours after the fire still smouldering is out over 300 million in HOURS has been raised. Two of France’s most wealthy individuals donated 100 million US dollars each by morning. The wealth of the World from Buffet to Zuckerberg are expected to match this world heritage donation flow. Paris will rebuild her with attention to history and pure love. The World stands with Paris this week and beyond. Fire experts rule the fire as accidental no sign of arson.
Economist Shiller from Yale today predicted on CNBC search it – that – if President Trump is re-elected the boom economy will continue – the stock market will set new records and why. Schiller says we are not the pre 2008 global village. We had been used to low volatility with old pre AI markets and now with new AI markets the volatility is unknown to past charts. Schiller a behavioral economist. My hero is not an investment banker like Dalio or Diamond though they both follow Schiller.
He wrote today that since 2008 the world is shaken. We are seeking a new normal. Our confidence is shattered. I add in the market normals such as confidence in Central banks is now due south for suspicious they have no clue what they are in fact doing. Schiller misses the truth of the NEW AI economy he has yet to realize paradigm shifted the world markets in their entirety since 2014. All his old models no longer function or work as he thinks. Why is THIS so important to that tribe in University forecasting? One reason – their old models are now obsolete like transportation before the wheel or rocket launch versus warp drive. That kind of shift.
Schiller is focused ( as we all are ) on Fed causing speculation super bubbles of the roaring 20’s that led to the world wide depression the FED ITSELF CREATED. Lets go through these numbers to track the high points and see why comparisons of the pre depression – the guide until 2008 when Bernake made the SUPER BLUNDER OF all time in economics – going to his grave like Freidman believing he was RIGHT and SUCCESFUL when in fact he sped up the system destruction potentials via the largest DEBT SUPER BUBBLE against aging demographics globally the depression era never knew at all. A double edge sword Bernake chopped down on global markets that may yet off the head of the global economy. Why? How? Understanding history is all economics and politics is a symptom of the failed economics that create all wars. Rome fell economically not militarily. When the enemy has hacked and acquired the weapons of Rome a doomsday clock is clicking for say AMERICA unless we turn back time.
So how do we do that? Well we obtain the right information and Schiller God Bless him has yet to obtain it. So lets review blogs from 2008 to today:
- We have paradigm shifted from the old economy of paper management in trades to AI and digital management of trades. It is like a failing Mall against AMAZON PRIME – paradigm shift – and my readers KNOW WHY.
- The NEW AI economy is built on the back of Bernanke’s decade of 50 trillion of Global Bank central bank infusion of debt driven capital to markets to save member banks from the bad market bets they made in raw speculations.
- In the 1960s to the 1980s the % of investment in stake holder trading – buying assets and trading real assets was the high % 80% of market based capital flow with rising but more moderate debt.
- Bernakes super bubble moved 33 trillion of sovereign nation debt – not counting 100’s of trillions of rising real estate commercial loans personal credit student loans car loans and shadow banking credit – but just focus on sovereign nation accounts. 100 Years to reach 33 trillion global debt loading which the IMF and WORLD BANK warned especially the largest % of the debt CHINA is not sustainable for years. From 2010 to 2019 the sum total doubled – 100 years doubled in nine years to 66 Trillion rapidly rising to 100 Trillion. When the regulatory community suggests 33 trillion is system dangerous and NOT sustainable when is 100 Trillion a system killer wit in a sovereign debt defaulting cascade like the world has never known – now driven by AI not human beings?
- The GREAT WORLD WIDE DEPRESSION was caused by wild speculations in markets. In 1929 the % of capital flow into “side bets on which way would forward asset classes GO – was many many times the scale of the stake holder real market of investing in assets you own. When banks and central banks together allow wild leverage to such side bets the market becomes a casino. In 1929 bucket shops or what looked like HIGH END Casino Keno parlors dotted down towns in every city in America. Men and woman like sub prime speculators would dressed in furs and top hats arrive in the morning and bet on side bets all day borrowing at fantastic ratio’s to do so. Still you had to take off work and GO INTO THE BETTING PARLORS these unregulated ( no SEC then ) Bucket Shops. Which were banned by law in the 1930’s and made legal again by unanimous act of congress in the last three hours of the BIll Clinton Administration. All depression carefully thought out laws to moderate system destruction were themselves destroyed at the behest of Chairman Greenspan – whose thinking took our plane into a mountain in 2008 . totally wrong – and himself out of date out of touch and totally unaware his economics are all dead and buried and the new AI ECONOMY is evolving too fast for old brains nearing 100 years of age to adapt or predict anything. Follow such obsolete out of currency in the new age of SUPER CHANGE at your own peril.
- Between 2014 and 2019 96% of all capital trading at 440 trillion in capital flows is controlled by non human AI itself rapidly into WHAT humans have zero plan knowledge or controls. We are engaged in an uncontrolled experiment in financial markets leaving all regulations in the dusty. Laws are local to UK and USA etc. Trades are outside those laws in the CLOUD and all digital. Today 100% of % of capital bets are leveraged side bets by AI. What does this mean and why is it so dangerous compared to the system crash of 1929?
- The spiral of speculation is many times the % ratios and leverage of 1929. Today the world is engaged in full on CASINO CAPITALISM with 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS executing bets by AI and leverage by digial AI at maximum levels never seen before in history. This speculation manipulates price ranges for every asset class as the bet on future value is many many times greater by % than stake holder investing a first since 1929. But far worse. Currency is AI speculation and price for the dollar and pound is manipulated. AI side bets have the same risk as 1929. The global markets are out of regulatory control and safe keeping – the markets are wild wild west new AI leveraged side betting to maximize profits. The market prices are all manipulated by AI side bets. Say the stake holder investment market is 3 to 5 trillion depending on who and how that number is defined economically. The side bet market on which way anything will go – a casino bet by AI at say 50 dollars to 1 dollar leverage into that side betting – up and down the rope both sides – is 1000 times greater than ratio’s that caused the great depression system melt down.
What creates the panic that does us in. Well its the following which I aslo number in the new Super Change AI economy of 2020:
- Lack of Global regulatory moderation to the debt loading globally out of any control – lack of regulatory control for wealth consolidation – lack of modern AI regulatory controls for global unwanted speculations now controlling all markets outside nations and central banks. The NEW AI Casino Capitalism of 2019.
- DEBT. SUPER BUBBLES of nonsense Debt. China has spent 300% more than it makes annually for more than ten years – a 3000 debt pit and rising rapidly. No agency not the IMF or World Bank has moved China to stop. Or Greece. Or Italy. Or Spain. Or Africa Nations. Or most Gulf Nations starting with Saudi. Or Russia. Or the USA or any nation. the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE bursts and no warning to the debt defaulting occurs. Typically the Fed or central banks using play books from economics that were dead and buried in 2008 – still trust and believe in using a “how to drive a go cart manual” to work the controls on the new economy the STAR SHIP ENTERPRISE. Pushing the wrong buttons on the bridge as Central Fed Banker Powell and his internal band of merry men and woman all in virtual VR head sets on old economy rules that no longer apply – did when he normalized interest along Janet Yellen’s terrible God Awful plan of way to frequent way to high each time and way to rapid a normalization over a 15 month plan that should have been 15 year plan. Central banks in 1929 failed to appreciate the risk feeling the RISK was low when the RISK was EXTREME just as the Fed is doing right now. Steeped in economic box top rules no one has used since 2008 and failing to possess the new box top rules of the entirely new AI economy – the Casino leverage and debt loads pass 1929 by ratio at orders of magnitude. The world simply can no absorb these new economic abuses on debt which must rebalance in fact.
- Debt Bubble Bursts – nations default on debt which becomes a cascade through financial markets which must now do what law fails to demand. They must recognize bad non performing crap debt as a loss on their own financial statements. These criminals are exempt from doing what we are required to do by law today so those bad debts are showing in China as strong good assets. When economics rebalances two things occur in Debt Cascade as the Debt SUPER BUBBLE bursts globally. First all orders and we mean 100% of buying shifts to selling – and there are no buyers – zero. We call this following DEBT BUBBLE BURST like 2019 – LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION DAY.
- Following LED day which happens with AI in minutes within time frames 1929 never had to adapt against and 1929 was horrible but not as global as this forward rebalancing which is digital tsunami’s instantly as CASINO CAPITALISM simply dies. Like 1929 but worse. As the asset class values plunge to levels unknown in modern times. Like no history in the past to guide anyone. Margin calls on the fantastic far greater than 1929 explode creating wealth evaporations in a spiral that is not stoppable by nations. IN days the banks investment banks and economics simply stop. Banks and investment banks just like Lehman are closed – and they do not re-open. At that time a new system must be the phoenix rising or the AI repeats pattern without mercy. You can not debt your way forward from SUPER DEBT CRASHES.
- IS it too late to fix it? No but time is running out. Is anyone proposing a solution? No. No one has the problem and the leaders heads are buried in the sand as their economic asses get blown to shed. The correct advise is absent. The book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION ON AMAZON PRIME ( always back ordered but they fill my five star rated solution ) written for law makers – heads of state – economic leadership at all levels and all banks and investment banks and world banks – as the ONE AND ONLY SOLUTION I have seen in step by step HOW TO WIN guidance. So far no leader is FIXING anything and the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE is a raging animal the world is only feeding more and more into as the CASINO spiral leads to ever worse outcomes and a world war for sure to preclude starvation of nations as the core system melts down in the SUPER CRASH.
Why do we humans always repeat this model from Rome to the middle ages to 1929 and World War II?
Answer – human greed. Those in charge with the most money London Wall Street China – and more spiral disproportionate wealth consolidation – the tipping point – where 1% control more wealth world wide all in super debt as well – than the wealth held by 99% of humans. This is criminal – insane – unethical – immoral and takes place as systems to keep a lid on it become obsolete over time as the SUPER WEALTH create LOOP HOLES where laws do not apply to them – the start of the next predictable economic rebalancing. Those at the top of the 99% of all wealth the 1% the 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLs are blinded by acquisition of the prior 1.5 million super money pools – as this consolidation is accelerating to system destruction.
Think of it this way. The leaders are playing checkers and know those box top rules.
AI is playing chess and see’s checkers as irrelevant – no longer relevant box top rules to win – and fully manipulated while the Chess rules control all the wealth flows and money but the central banks and national leaders via their obsolete advisers in the OLD PRE AI ECONOMY have no box top rules to play the new economic game of CASINO CAPITALISM or restore it to sane sustainable real economics.
So Schiller my brother – you are totally right today. And you are totally wrong today. Yes Trump re-election may not be political any longer it may be economic only. Trump wins in 2020 and the market has more time and economics prosper globally into 2030. Trump loses in 2020 and a SUPER CRASH SUPER RISK rises to NOW versus when.
IF WE FAIL TO FIX THE CORE PROBLEM and deal with silly symptoms the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE including nation promises to entitlements = promises that are pure lies – and economically can never be paid or realized – unless the broen system is in fact reforme and RE-REGULATED. Ask the SEC they will tell you the largest regulatory RE-THINK OF history is upon us today due to AI ECONOMICS all new. My readers know more than the advisers to nations all of whom just know their checker game is the earth is flat when AI has a telescope and defines the great lie the earth is in fact a sphere.
PROCEED AT YOUR OWN GREAT RISK we have laid out safe harbor suggestions for you to explore with your licensed professionals since 2010 but now at the peak all time wealth effect – is the time to take action to protect yourself. If not – as in the past – never say “we failed to tell you”.
FInk at Blackrock the largest SUPER MONEY POOL down in earnings 7% still ok but punished by AI today as its shares sank instantly on Fink failure to get it perfect. Fink today suggests there is a melt up occuring. We agree. A melt up occurs when oceans of cash say 100 trillion – is on the side line parked to see what central banks are doing to the new AI markets. They parked all that cash thinking interest would kill markets in equities and in bonds for a time.
Fink suggests the trend is no clear on the FED GREAT PAUSE and the Trump Pelosi grand bargain on INFRASTRUCTURE in the trillions. Infrastructure spending creates prosperity in America into 2030 and is expected to pass pre election.
FINK reported running a money pool of over 6 trillion dollars – a fund greater than most sovereign nation wealth -one of the larger investors to nations and to national bond debt – so his report matters. Fink suggested the massive MARKET MELT UP. A market roaring move from today valuation to 30,000 DOW is created when these trillions roar from AI back into working profit positions in asset classes by largely side betting into the casino market place. AI is not in the old economics.
AI uses its own new math to review profit making of all AI into new charts new trends and spots pathology that frankly never existed in economics pre 2010. Fink predicts the MELT UP has begun. That new all time records will be reached then broken than broken again. The Market is going to 30,000 DOW with all asset classes rises as well.
Retail as my previous blog reported remains an island of UNLOVE by the capital markets today. Why? Read my blog below this one as a scroll and you will also have FIRST as always hard data to review with your other sources. We think as in 1929 Schiller is myopically studying – that – a Massive MELT UP from trillions of under performing capital will effect market cap rates in the casino. The journey to 30,000 may be fraught with more volatility than any prior economic model experience has known – as AI profits from maximum volatility AI creates itself to secure those profits.
Countless times we ask investors and day traders to get the Kenny Rogers song …and play it while you make bets in the casino capitalism of today betting against AI. The song goes…..you have to know when to hold them you have to know when to fold them ….with other great musical advice. Get the song. Investors.
Diversified insurance investing takes you into insulation from the AI casino. Scroll to see our suggestions for safe harbor investing we recommend to our CEO SPACE customers to explore with licensed professionals. Just explore a safer way a sound bet versus a casino risk. if you wish to bet into the casino as with all gambling you only win long term if you own the CASINO. If you are one of the rapidly shrinking by merger less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS. Players making bets win some and lose some …until they lose it all.
We suggest safe outside Casino investing in diversified insurance investing which executed this week promises.
Best possible overall gains in the MELT UP – leader Fink at Blackrock reported today. Trillions flowing back into working positions in bets into the casino largely placing bets as AI defines the side bets in the new global maximally leveraged investing – leaving 1929 Schiller is tracking by % of RISK to all time high and in the 1929 dust compared to new AI risk taking as never seen in economics before.
Get my drift?
Markets are moving around like drunks – but today again up a bit more as we move toward LARRY FINKS all time record as we MELT UP – MONEY ELECTING TO profit in the market today versus under performance on side lines and folks that is trillions coming back into play – against some of the lowest volume as the big bucks have a wait and see mind set that FINK who is like the Oracle of Delphi economically – presiding over the largest super money pool ever amassed in human history – magically proclaims – the mind set is shifting to self effecting outcomes of massive MELT UP.
THE MELT UP is coming to 30,000 DOW….fasten your seat belts and no smoking po lease.
Berny Dohrmann – on the WHAT IS GOING ON OUT THERE….THE NEWS IS RELATIVE AND ACTUALLY GOOD !