FEB 4th – YEAR TO DATE AT A GLANCE
This blog told you ( first ) in October during the big sell off of stocks and bonds – into the election – THAT – a Santa Clause Rally would occur by year end. We were wrong by five days 90 days out – not bad. The January Santa Clause Rally was the best JANUARY ON RECORD topping 30 years of Jan stats for up bubble. The HUGE OVER SOLD MARKET of December did in fact sling shot back in value to a level not seen in pubic reported EVER. The difference in 2018 Jan and 2019 Rally is the BREADTH of the rise effecting all index modeling. All asset classes rose in effect save the US Dollar which dipped slightly from its record year high.. Profits at year end were entirely RECORD SETTING from Amazon to the FANGS. Those performing the least in the final quarter blood bath rebounded the most in the SLING SHOT for the New Year Santa Clause Rally. Unemployment is low and job creation is high. Opportunity abounds.
The China market is crashing into a SUPER CRASH the central planners have a hard time managing. Massive accommodation by the Government, pushing forth unsustainable debt in private and public sectors to stabilize the downward cycle. Consumers are massively pulling back into the YEAR OF THE MONKEY as Chinese New Year begins and a dead zone for economic activity unfolds. China first quarter is a disaster and without a trade agreement the future does not look bright in China. A real trade model and example to the world sets off Trade templates for the EU and for Japan to follow.
The EU is in down bubble. Italy with the largest unsustainable economic debt load is now in recession. Contraction in the worst debt nation is a double edge cut that can create a Greece like crises to follow. Will Italy be able to remain in the EU? Can the EU pour billions into Italy as they have Greece and then Spain and who pays those debts off? France with Yellow VESTS is moving into neutral to recession. The EU also needs Trade Deals with the USA and their down bubble from trade issues is as with China – de-stablizing with higher interest debt cost – higher dollar cost – and sinking trade with the largest customer on earth THE USA. Unfair trade modeling is now in rip tide sea change.
Russia is staying out of recession even with lower oil cost. The lower cost of oil and the shrinking demand for oil and the cost of everything in dollars and higher interest have Russia in a rock and a hard place economically. There is no way to secure higher more robust for a nation whose economics in total are only the size of the State of New York as an economic comparison – without a new trade deal without sanctions. Sanctions for invading UKRAINE have cost Russia billions in annual military budget rises and trillions in sanctions and lost investment.
The strongest economy on earth the USA is setting new records on stable growth without a recession anytime soon.
February we feel will return to maximum volatility due entirely to:
- Uncertainty in trade deals
- Uncertainty in fiscal monetary policy
- Uncertainty in US political outcomes
- Uncertainty in Gulf Civil war and proxy war between MBS and Iran in Region
- Uncertainty Britt Exit
- Uncertainty on infrastructure economics in USA
- Uncertainty over sovereign nation debt outcomes passing 66 trillion in 2019
The impact on AI now in control of markets in fact, creates volatility until the MARKET OF UNCERTAINTY moderates into a market of greater predict control and stability.
In our opinion. Wait for it……following all time over 30 years of record smashing UP WEALTH in Jan 2019 for market investing.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping a LIGHT ON as to what IS going on OUT there just for YOU always first