EU TRADE WARS MOVE EU TOWARD RECESSION IN 2019

 

The EU Trade Wars have customers around the world and especially in the USA on PAUSE until the issues come to an agreement. Germany is as the largest EU economy moving into a 28 billion dollar deficit as falling revenues no longer provide a surplus to the budget of the largest economy driving the EU. The BRITT EXIT is weighing on EU trade over all. Italy awahs in an ocean of unsustainable debt, in contest with EU budget rules, has slide itself into full on recession in 2019. The Bubble is moving down down down in the EU.

The FED might take note that its fully failed policy has taken a fragile recovery and by error in economic policy done more harm to a stability in the core system than any other factor. Cowb web brains at the FED apply theory and policy into an old economy that is now dead and buried. The rapidly evolving new economy box top rules for global AI driven financial markets has yet to cross the FED windshield for what policies will foster stability system wide and what policies will drive system stability into a system super crash or free up. The Fed is playing with fire and no one has taught them how to responsibly use matches.

By crashing system liquidity with their 50 billion of bond selling into the markets a month, over half a trillion dollars every ten months of system liquidity sucked right out of the system, all the while soaring interest costs are rising up up and away by failed Fed economic policy, to which the Fed is never held accountable. All the economic pain in the EU and across the globe created by absolutely silly Fed time lines that have as their basis NON REALITY ECONOMICS.

The EU create a drag on the system as China is imploding. China is economically in a free fall implosion of economic core systemics. Their nation has been a nation with an AI run on the bank. A run out of:

  1. A trillion dollars of investing in China dried up
  2. A trillion dollars for projects in process in china were put on hold
  3. A trillion dollars has fled China and more is fleeing out – capital flight – soaring out
  4. Companies are moving to other markets out of China
  5. New projects are going to neighbors outside China

China is caught with rising prices, declining quality, and a nightmare to get business DONE. IP is not protected and China rips off its best clients and customers from Coca Cola to Mac Donalds to aero spare to automobiles. Do business in China and a Chinese copy cat is taking your IP into their market and competing back at you for trusting China in the first place. Apple and Ford may do a start up business in China only to find the cost of remaining in China is soaring, becomes staggering, and sales decline as Chinese Firms now sell rip off products cheating you for investing. Then your Apple Sales fall as do your Ford Sales and China copy cats rise.

The World not just the USA has had ENOUGH and is “running out of China” . The down bubble in China economics could not come at a WORST TIME. Why? Over ten years of spending 300% more than China makes, driven by debt super bubbles to propel the China Machine forward. The weight of the debt super bubble against the rapidly deteriorating internal economics is now a tornado of economics promising a very risky hard forward landing potentially.

Russia is doing OK despite Sanctions due to Putin global deal making.

Some developing nations are showing promise but are slowing rapidly as the USA the EU and Asia are slowing investments due to their own economic issues. A global slow down at this time is not desired or required. FED policy corrections may help if it is not too late. We’ll see. Trade Deals WILL HELP if they are not too late and IF they are real strong and honored. We’ll see.

ISIS is not dead and can strike the EU and the WEST.

The sale of Nukes is the next great danger and insane as it appears, big money players are in the market place to become nuke powers for a mix of motivations.

The RISK moving forward to the Massive under strength of the USA Economy, remains higher due to the rapidly declining economic conditions in Asia and the EU. These sea anchors do not signal confidence and risk on investing.

As markets react with energy declining today we point out the leading oil firms in sharply declining oil price markets from October to December – some 40% price decline for oil and another MBS Policy failure – these oil institutions reported record all time high profits at year end. ALL TIME HIGH PROFITS.

The Risk of oil demand collapsing which we predict is now irreversible will represent the largest economic disintermediation of markets in the life time of this generation.

Long term the future looks unknown.

If things go one way prosperity is the outcome.

If things go another – such as Congress politically moving the USA into serious recession by 2020 to advance a change of guard at the White House – the nation and global risk is super high – by on going error with economic policy.

Holding powers that can risk the system to fail, is the missing check and balance. Without this check and balance over the core system, RISK remains very high for system potentials for a SUPER CRASH forward into 2020. Right now of course things look reasonably stable but that stability is an illusion. Under the surface RISK remains higher than one would consider due to new AI ECONOMICS rapidly evolving where – where global box top rules to better manage a new AI economy do not exist at all.

Flying blind into a new environment of economics no one can predict the outcome related to RISK in fact.

That is what keeps us up at night for the stability of the world.

Berny Dohrmann – WATCHING THE UNFOLDING DATA IN 2019 – WHILE NOT EVERYONE IS  OK