SURGE & HEAD WINDS – WHAT TO DUCK & WHAT TO BUCK
The wrong minded obsolete and antique fiscal policies of the Federal Reserve Board, always looking backward using tables criteria charts graphs and data that no longer is complete, the right basket of data and irrelevant to the NEW GLOBAL DIGITAL AI economy over which the Fed has zero data, information, or relevant tools to effect policy outcome. It is like flying a plane Into a mountain with zero instruments on board to tell you the mountain is dead in front or that your too low in altitude not to crash. The Fed flies along happy with past flights taken years ago being the same as today’s flight only they are in the Rocky Mountains now now over the clear blue ocean by Mexico flat and desert like. Now they have real mountains only they can’t see them. That is the Fed.
So the FED has created far more market DREAD in the new economy than in past cycles because now everything economic is new noting like the past. The Fed is making terrible policy errors and thinks they are right. This is always the real crises in economics. Wrong minded tampering with the core basis.
So all economies grow or shrink based upon confidence that propels:
- Consumer spending
- Government spending stimulus
- Or both
Economies contract and business downsize workers with lay off’s when:
- Consumers slow own spending
- Governments slow down spending
- Or both
The longest highest boom expansion in modern record keeping is right now in the Holiday of 2018. The largest Holiday buying season with 72% of world spending taking place in October November and December appears to be a record setter of estimated over ONE TRILLION DOLLARS for the first time in history in just America. This will fuel last quarter record earnings reporting in the first quarter, which should spill over well in the first quarter, depending on weather and climate change issues, to propel a solid start to 2019. We have stated record earnings would drive record all time high stock prices. We”ll all see.
The head winds are along the lines we have written to you. What keeps me up at night for all of you?
China had in 2017 zero dollar based loan defaults. In 2018 China has 34 billion in loan defaults in dollar based debts. Today around 33 billion in dollar based China debt rise up for renewal every 90 days. In 2019 the trade war dropping CHINA GNP, its crash of its stock market, the crash of its currency, the falling off a cliff of industry since the rush to order before Tarriff Christmas Time, is creating enormous China pressure internally if they don’t get a deal sealed with Trump.
China stressed with interest rate roll over to the dollar based debt of almost 1 trillion dollars total and rising, assures that with 500% roll over debt cost from the FED making policy errors on TIME for the normalization, will now spark record defaults. Everyone is telling us these record loan defaults will not SPILL OVER and become a global CASCADE.
We think they are all wrong and it keeps us up at night. We think the bad loans in China are going to sink the global economic system at core do to catastrophic Chinese market Super Crashes led by housing first, moving to manufacturing second, and finally with the combination of enormous defaulting, a Debt Contagion that is threat the entire global core system. The NEW ECONOMY is global, interlinked, like nothing that has been taught or come before, has new rules, is Digital and entirely AI driven, and no one today even knows what the box top rules of AI waring with AI for profit taking, looks like from a new regulatory frame work. The Fed operating with heads all demon turned backward on their necks use 1955 tools that promise catastrophic outcomes for the core system, playing like a Fed Pied Piper to get all their banks marching all their depositors right off a giant cliff – playing their old music on their old mouth organ, like they knew what they were doing in fact.
The FED is so obsolete antique and out of touch with modern regulatory policy that they simple need to be merged back into USA Treasury with oversight accountability and audits – so the real smarty pants can make policy that have some clue that the economy has morphed and is nothing like the old templates the Fed regulated before they flooded the world with 100 trillion dollars.
The outcome of that flood is very much unknown and may in hindsight be the economic killer that was the death blow to the old post war system. Can we peacefully get out of the SUPER DEBT BUBBLE the pig in the economic python the abuse that must be rebalanced without an economic calamity.
I believe the FED has already killed CHINA and 200 other developing nations with soaring dollar prices in all markets while interest rates are raised to 7 trillion free money loans over ten years now ROLLING OVER into 500% and rising new costs to re-tool those loans. Economically I say to the Fed….its math 101 ….can not be done folks. You set up the barrier to growth that is fatal globally for all nations. Why? Because your regulating an economy THE OLD ECONOMY that is dead buried and no longer exists and you lack the upgraded prescription glasses to see the missing data and incomplete global internet-links so that unintended consequence to YOUR FAILED POLICIES is more compounding of your failure. The speed of the outcome will leave blisters on your Fed governors asses folks. You are so dead wrong in this after math shoot from the hip old model policy and you will create WORLD WAR III out of the Shock Doctrine ( by Namoi Klein economist at Amazon ) you are executing today.
Housing is the lion share of GNP. Housing is crashing in America due to Failed Fed totally wrong direction policies. They are wrong in their conclusions about:
- The job market
- The risks
The Fed is protecting us all from risks that do not exist in the New Economy ( but the Fed glasses are old prescriptions and work in 1941 but not in 2018 ). The Fed is failing to protect us from the SUPER RISKS in the market they are making far worse for all of us.
Housing declining against soaring interest costs now effects all durable goods order. Some economist credit 3/4 of the economy on the back bone of healthy housing. Today the housing market is:
- Out of economic balance – too many homes cost too much for the average earning to qualify for the loans to buy them.
- Too many homes can’t be refinanced because the home owner awash in debts has lack of credit standing yet to accommodate those loans.
- Too many lack credit qualification as wages have not risen well for ten years, so that they can not trade up.
- Soaring home prices and soaring home lending costs have destroyed the housing Market in America.
- The housing market is crashing and the down sizing and lay off’s are taking hold across technology to food production that even crashing gasoline prices can’t offset fully the FED error in policy to not normalize over a greater time period where TIME in the new economy is the missing healer elixir but the Fed has no clue.
So the economy – fragile in global recovery – following the worst side betting in history by banks and investment banks and financial institutions, leading to trillions in losses and bad side bets into casino capitalism, where bailed out by the tax payers of nations Into privately owned stock firms, central banks, who never report at all where the trillions actually went. Never.
Do you want a high priest banking system that is cut off from the New Economy, makes policies in secret, reports to no one, has no check and balance, gets an over ride on printing all money, when the Treasury can do all that with full reporting for free. Further the Failed Fed does its costly work of destroying economic growth, for pure greed of its shareholders all the while LYING to AMERICA suggesting the criminal bankers who all pled guilty to crimes in America who are the secret OWNERS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD STOCK SHARES – all in great secrecy- lie to you and say the Fed is independent. Yes the Fed is beyond check and balance but is that not what we wish to CHANGE. Do we not want a real agency of nation who is under check and balance to control our money – like US TREASURY who did so without world depressions and wars for 100 and 100’s of years? LETS GO BACK TO OUR OWN FUTURES.
MERGE THE FED hurting the US ECONOMY back into US treasury.
The housing market is dying and the Fed is killing the US Housing Market which is 3/4 of USA GNP all drying up by failed Fed Policy a child could see is wrong. Congress says they are wrong. The White House says they are wrong. Only the Fed is the one agency that answers to no one one – so bad for economics and the world today. The cause of our DREAD IS ALWAYS THE FED.
Never doubt they are wrong in policy making. They have created every boom bust cycle and all the disasters – the FED FAILED POLICY STREAM EASY TO GOOGLE RESEARCH HAS BEEN WRONG AND A FAILURE 100% OF THE TIME from 1907 to today. WHY KEEP THE LOSER INSTITUTION? I’m just asking ? When do we say enough loss and pain is enough loss and pain? There has to be a BETTER WAY in the AI world’s we reside inside of today. THE FED is simply 100 year obsolete body doing much more harm than good today and MUST BE MERGED INTO US TREASURY to upgrade our nation and modernize economics into the NEW WORLD ORDER.
Housing is dying. In America. Seven months dying from the Fed. 3.4 of America economics and GNP ….this keeps me up at night ….as the Fed has no responsibility for the pain policy errors make millions suffer through for one reason – the FED is obsolete and wrong.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SHOCK DOCTRIN:
The new congress will open with multiple prong attacks to investigate the President along the lines of Kavanaugh. The meanness and viciousness of those investigations will be used to negotiate democratic deals in legislation. During this period of Congressional return to 25 years of grid lock and congress dysfunction the nation is mis governed and mis directed.
Today if you elect a President elect that leaders congress so congress works – having nothing to do with party. Congressional dysfunction in a SUPER CHANGE global market space, is suicide for nations. We face coordinated attacks from leaders elected in effect forever united in policies that are working against us and for them. We are inside world war III which is digital economic and AI driven and we are losing. Out dysfunctional leadership always under internal attacks ever more costly in lost options and opportunities is holding America back at the starting gates of the NEW AI economy.
Consumer confidence was all time record highs going into to year end 2018. Same for business confidence indexes.
We anticipate confidence will crash in 2019 due to congressional dysfunction on policy and Fed further action to destroy the boom and secure a massive global recession market. Oh the Fed will as all criminals do so well BLAME GAME the results upon others but the culprit the economic criminal acton is the FAILED FED POLICY. Mark that you KNOW THAT NOW….
You can’t issue 7 trillion in free money loans and roll that loan pile over into 500% higher lending charges in only 12 months without a disturbance in the economy. Such as massive DEBT DEFAULTING rising like a Moon Shot rocket from the Cape. Beyond the FED to control when their policy fails due to incapacity to appreciate the world is engaged in a new economy and the Fed is stock in quick sand of an old economy that has not existed for over half a decade – all gone now and long past buried.
The Fed are the walking dead for the old economy – economic zombies.
The consumer confidence on congress and administration built to record all time peaks is now going to with a new congress and impaired embattled President move into contests all political theater for the two year race for President which is starting now – beginning with 18 months of tarnish label and muck – creating its own momentum in the negative.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE can only withdraw along with spending even as business spending and investment is now crashing.
SPECULATION – CASINO CAPITALISM
The economy of the world is driven by wild unwanted speculations. This speculation occurs by investing 90% of all capital flows into side bets on which way an asset class will go in a short term future date in time. Betting on price. When enough money flows into such bets it manipulates prices in the real market. Today with stock buy backs in the billions of dollars, a trillion last year a trillion this year – manipulating stock prices – we have a pure casino. Stock prices are manipulated when speculation money pools buy back stock, to reduce the size of the company float and engineer stock price higher to the lower float size – creating bonus and trigger to bonus from insiders – all cheating all manipulating and all having nothing to do with real economics.
Prices for all commodities asset classes and currencies are fully manipulated by less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS all speculating in borrowed margin trading up to 50 dollars side betting on future price ranges to every dollar of real investment – fully borrowed fully leveraged in what the new AI folks believe is risk-less risk. As your ETF accounts assume the majority of trading flows. AI wars against AI for compression of short term profits through wild speculation trading algorithms. Folks are investing billions to steal these trading code pathologies given the trillions in profits that can be made inside the CASINO today on all up and all down trading. SPECULATION SOFTWARE runs the CASINO.
There is no regulation upon:
- Wealth consolidations
- Speculator Gambling to make short term profits ( criminal in only 1999 )
- Tax avoidance speculations
- Geo investing to exploit minerals and labor maximally punishing greed moderations at any level of constraint or oversight
- Relaxing the regulations we have which are 80% obsolete anyway
The CASINO CAPITALISM is new, a copy of the 1929 Great Depression. The Great Depression was created when free low cost money created massive casino capitalism. The side bets on WHICH WAY any asset class MAY GO became much larger many 100x larger than the real economic market.
In 2019 this condition has gone digital versus physical trading walls known as BUCK SHOPS outlawed in all 50 states by Federal Law following the speculator driven super crashes that closed the banks themselves. The banks made fully borrowed side bets.
Today the financial institutions are Side betting at leverage and margins and % levels no economy has known before. The CASINO CAPITALISIM MARKET grew out of AI and assumed over 90% control of all money flows for baseless non economic greed and profit making gambling on borrowed money. Just like the RISK in the Great Depression only much much worse at every measurable nexus.
Keep in mind in such a party we all drink and are merry till we fall off the cliff than we blame game – oh me oh my – how could this have happened. It happens because six hundred law makers have too much money from Wallstreet to blind them to understand the economics that have shifted. WE ARE NOW IN A NEW AI LEVERAGE GLOBAL EOCONOMY NO LEADER UNDERSTANDS AT ALL AND WHICH IS SUPER CHANGING SO FAST NO ONE HAS TOOLS TO STAY CURRENT ON THE PATHOLOGY FORM AND OUTCOMES OF THE NEW ECONOMY.
What we know for sure is RISK is higher today than in 1929 for a far worse much more rapid outcome in a SUPER CRASH brought on by DEBT DE-LEVERAGING to rebalance system absue in core economics. Hitting the mountain in mid flight full power.
Why would we crash into the mountain?
- Do not see the mountain
- Are told there is no mountain
- Believe others will fly us over the mountain
- Take zero responsibility to fly ourselves
- Fail to look out the window
Repeating worst than 1929 is not what the world system needs today.
The world system is at full risk of collapse. Banks fail next time and there is no tax payer bail out. Banks close for real.
No one appreciates the danger but some TREASURY officials and the IMF sounding the alarm bell at the BIG FREEZE while everyone is not listening because they are all bought and paid for in nice warm blankets from the Wall Street crowd blinded entirely forging a new AI economy without any oversight rules or regulatory guide lines of any kind what so ever.
IS THIS THE WAY TO RUN GLOBAL ECONOMICS?
SUMMERY IN TIME: BUILID YOUR OWN SAFE HARBOR TO PROSPER DEC 11th
We believe we will see a record all time stock wealthy from the year end ONE TRILLION DOLLARS in buying power in just America alone this year. Up bubble. We believe FED Interest destructors to the Housing Market now in full crash will lower 2019 GNP and bring the booming economy from 5% growth as we rise up to that for the first time in 30 years – down to 1.6% growth where dysfunctional congress has kept America backward for 30 years of time now.
The American public votes on issues that are non economic and fail to vote their wallet which is their best vote. They just are misinformed by 5.6 billion spent in 18 prior months to brain wash voter points of view. Those wishing to buy the nation don’t see the risk taking place economically. Most are attorney law makers legally trained brains with the most limited tools to assess economic outcomes in fact.
2019 will be a GREAT SLOWING of America with the wild card being infrastructure. If the Congress votes fast enough on infrastructure that stimulus may offset the FED destruction of global liquidity and irresponsible loan interest rate rising too soon too fast too frequently for the market to adjust.
The war of economics from FED failed errors in policy will drag the world into recession in 2020 without offsets. Such as slowing interest rate rising. The Fed is dangerous today in their ignorance. The Fed is a backward obsolete institution that only creates failed policy and pain today. Given these criminal bankers not part of the national system not a federal agency at all POWER AND CREDABILITY without check and balance is an obsolete concept. MERGE THE FED BACK INTO US TREASURY BEFORE IT IS ALL TOO LATE.
Economics 101 all abuse in the system must rebalance.
The rebalancing is taking place with great pain for the second shoe falling in 2019. You will feel the pain from recession in 2020 to 2022 deepening on Congress the Fed and infrastructure.
The problem IS the next down turn could be catastrophic due to DEBT CASCADING DEFAULTS leading to LIQUIDIATION EVAPORATION DAY. Remember that we told you the WHAT the HOW the WHEN right here in this blog.
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