ROLLING BEAR MARKET? WILD CARDS & 2019
One Chap at Morgan reported today that it is “his” opinion ( which I don’t hold any high regard for the youngster a data miner ) THAT the market is experiencing something NEW. In the digital casino. He labels it ROLLING BEAR MARKET. Between volatility he tracks a majority of mid back bone stocks are 20% lower than 2017 peaks and that – the market ranges of the indexes are up by an upside down pyramid of a shrinking % of the market a tiny % that is the growth reported by the index’s.
Our Chap missed the Spring correction which was large after January and we predicted accurately and to a fault to our readers and to CEO’s world wide on this blog:
- in 2015 – Spring 2018
- 2016 – Spring 2018
- 2017 – Spring 2018
- 2018 Jan – get to safe haven’s and why and where
- Too late and why in that huge correction dip still working its way though
Then we told you the SUMMER IS COMING and then we told you the SUMMER IS HERE. Even though the trades are for the first summer – the 2018 summer – now 90% digital and AI where consolidating 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS control 90% of the capital circulations in new model of casino capitalism.
In this model which Morgan Stanley leads – AI trades most of the 440 trillion not into the markets of 3.7 trillion but into speculations – into bets – side bets like a giant global never sleeps 24/7 world casino. Thats right. Listen to me now.
For the first time AI is digitally manipulating prices in RANGES with theory they are developing diskless risk. A market where price ranges can only exist inside pre set parameters of the massive bets on lows and highs as to ranges. The kids writing the software are directed by chaps like the ROLLING BEAR REPORT at Morgan.
I always have found when I ran investment banking public institutions on Wall Street that – the danger was the pundits – ( almost always historically incorrect ) – believe their own press. When its more a culture it becomes challenging to think outside their box so to speak. I put an out of box example on Linkeden today – berny dohrmann I’ll click you in so you can see it.
Rolling Bear Market – cute press catch phrase and it got low ranking and will be gone in a few days from thought.
The Summer has the leadership of the 10,000 super money pools on vacation with their family tribes in exotic locations on yachts the size of which is their new prestige like the Hamptons once was in my day when the film A WEEKEND AT BERNY’s was made – and I felt even back then like I was hitting every pillar as the boat roared past in the market place as I learned from the masters of that time – all gone now. Wait for it – as after Labor Day and the AI dips the BOSS’s of the SUPER MONEY return for REAL globally seeking to maximize year end wealth reporting and do you think they will fail to record set the market at year end…..just because they Ai can ? Watch for it…..and remember we told you – record highs by year end unless a WILD CARD event occurs which we define below for you and most of those BOSS”s are reading this blog on their vacation folks – my main tribe over my lifetime after all is THEM…….
Today the market of trust, of family, of knowing one another, is a market of digital success and track record and auspices and primarily that size matters still:
- My capital is bigger than your capital
- My AI is more advanced and yes BIGGER lots BIGGER than your capital.
Smaller firms suggest size doesn’t matter but that was not true in 1968 or the in between times and it is not true today. In financial markets SIZE is the only thing that matters for control influence prestige an ultimately reshaping global markets.
After 9/11 when the world markets almost ceased to function and Walls Street was laying fiber cables to reconnect exchange capacity to signal the world – hey we are still able to operate – a bit of an illusion at the time like a magician pulling a rabbit out of hat – hoping the audience will not see the financial tricks taking place – the regulatory frame work of the entire world basically retired. Why?
Again it is all in my work of this age and time Redemption the Cooperation Revolution all my readers should own today for their own financial peace of mind on what is really going on out there – https://www.amazon.com/Redemption-Cooperation-Revolution-Berny-Dohrmann/dp/0692646051 click and get more than one you will want to give it to your tribe – its major life enriching software for your brain.
The regulatory frame work of the world was constructed to moderate risk from the Great Depression – remove wild speculation from markets that caused the Great Depression – and to regulate financial fraud within laws passed in 1933 and modified a bit here and there into now.
The markets of the world went along pretty well until Dec 1999 when in the last THREE HOURS of the BILL CLINTON Presidency we see a per Christmas Congress break last session UNANIMOUS VOTE ( when can you remember such a thing from the US congress in fact ? ) – on the COMMODITY MODERNIZATION ACT which had little to do with commodities. This single Bill should have been called the DEPRESSION LAW DESTRUCTION ACT – as the 100’s of regulatory double lines put in place to block market leveraged speculation and bank deposits from your grand mother moving to off shore derivative super high risk margin trading – would be precluded and be illegal and crimes were BANG by unanimous vote destroyed.
At the time there was some 2.6 trillion in market trading velocities annually and 800 billion globally in leveraged side bets in speculative trading primarily outside the USA as hedging bets. Today there is roughly 3.7 trillion in annual market trading investment owning stake holder wealth – and the side bets with the depression laws destroyed – are not digitally leveraged in long and short plays on all commodity asset groups upon the earth George Bush Treasury Secretary states presently peak at 440 trillion dollars.
When you take all world bank wealth and leverage it ( thats right no deposits reside inside a bank safety as they did in ratio to depression controlled frame works in 1999 – all bank assets are working in after depression law destruction at fantastic leverage seeking every higher short term profits a spiral that with a DEBT SUPER BUBBLE created the Great Depression AND WORLD WAR II.
The tipping point ( the chap on rolling bear markets from Morgan has no clue about historically and economically ) was the combination of:
- Super Debt Spiral a SUPER DEBT BUBBLE globally in the 1920’s.
- Insane rapid interest rate rising by the Federal Reserve Board
- Trade War spiraling up at the same time
Then came the SUPER CRASH and bank closures.
The world of 7 billion believes THEY have in place safe platforms to prevent such a economic event from occurring in the future.
Ah but there is the blind spot and no warning as you financially hit the peter built and die instantly.
No warning either.
SO WE HAVE THE ECONOMIC TALE OF TWO CITIES TO UNDERSTAND:
THE CITY OF NOW AND 2019
In the City of “NOW & 2019” we have a global market in full on experiment. An economic invention never tried before.
So in 2008 the market had exceeded 1929 parameters in all measurable levels. Global Debt Super Bubble Spiral was ratcheting up at trillions never seen before in human history. The real estate speculation globally became something new. Following the DEPRESSION DESTRUCTION EVENT of 1999. 60 Minutes did a great program on the truth of all this – we have it – they should chat with me and do an update for the world before it is too late. They reported what needed to be DONE then and no one listened at all in the GREED MACHINE following the crash of 2008. I felt it was the one and only report that got it RIGHT. Bank deposits were fully deployed in very bad bets.
The system Super Crashed and the banks began to fail starting with investment banks. The run out of banks was fantastic and closing banks was a serious option. The experiment created by Paulson former Chairman of JP Morgan – Bernake ( whom I think need to buried with Milton Freidman the economist who created this mess ) and Giertner maybe the only sane one in the group and Roel Campos SEC Commission who engineered the WAY FORWARD now with Hughes and Hubbard – did a little experiment. They printed over 10 trillion dollars in the USA and 100 trillion world wide and bailed out the bank and failing financial institution bad debt with tax payer money that does not exist save as debt saddled on future generations unborn as of yet to pay it all off. Not knowing if it would stick if it would work. At all. Then Obama came in and hired Roel Campos who at least knew the history. Even though he was GEORGE BUSHES lead SEC Commission and mentor during the crises. Paulson was conflicted in my option because the JP Morgan profits on the Lehman carnage which never ever needed to take place – as so enriching to his own stock holdings. No one reported about that aspect in any depth but in our blog shout outs over and over and over. Calling the truth into economic accounting. FOLLOW THE DAMN MONEY.
Illusion is a distraction – a tweet or a press gone to take them down a side ally from the real money being played out. Financial illiteracy remains rampant.
So the trillions of printed debt money to bail out financial institution bad bets keep the system going. Saved the banks from failing just 20 years of spiral up into depression repeated economics precisely – due to DEPRESSION DESTRUCTION LAWS the Wall Street GREED MACHINE that lobbied for 70 years to that one event – making so much ungodly profits – lobbies even now to preclude returning back to – billions invested to assure we do not GO BACK THE FUTURE and restore say just one part of the Depression laws destroyed by unanimous act of congress – all republicans all democrats under Bill Clintons blessing and signing into law immediately before year end – Merry Christmas say:
glass stiegel Act that limited high risk ownership of low risk law controlled banking by investment banks or bank investing in high risk leveraged speculations – where assets are reported in exempt from FAIR MARKET ACCOUNTING – such that bad assets or high risk assets or non performing loans ( bad loans ) can all show as positive good assets on Morgan Stanley’s balance sheets now – because with the DEPRESSION LAWS DESTROYED and the new RULE TREASURY JUST PROPOSED investment banks would fall under the NEW LAW and have abilities to create financial statements you and I would be put into prison for creating.
But today we all watch the trial in Washington as Distraction – where the government seeks to impune the President by association for 180 days – and to convict what so many report is a good fine man – for a) the way he dressed and b) the fact he had a successful lifestyle and c) he owned companies off shore ( none of which are crimes ) but all of which are the main case – as impression not criminal silver bullets is this case – where the man – is in solitary confinement in prison with no bail because he made a short phone call a party hung up on – really – in America – where the man is INNOCENT UNTIL PROVEN BEYOND ANY REASONABLE DOUBT OF ANY KIND to be GUILTY as a stone in a lake? What nation have we become today? Ask are you following the real ball.
Rolling Bear Markets – nice sound bite – hum bug. Not done yet though.
So moving through economic history ( that matters past all the tiny stuff you read like Stormy Daniels – my God go to a chat room and invest in that girls personal economy she is making more than the chap on trial and keeping it with tits and ass and a mouth that who would marry? ) – we follow that and are blinded to what is cancer in our system about to kill us all – where we run out of TIME to FIX the cancer and stop it cold by treating the real illness – while we pop endless pimples on our face in the mirror dying while we think we look good to drive over to Chick Filet and buy a sandwich –
The market saved by the wild betting and experiment of nations and central banks – is trying to use time to replenish bank wealth sufficient to accommodate their bad bets and bad loans. As in 2008 they were in adjusted accounting BANKRUPT as were nations.
That is economic hard fact no distraction YOU should take to your bank if you can find one outside the speculation – a small local bank in the ideal with a balance sheet you read understood and knew was solid as a boulder in Tarpon Springs Florida.
The problem is the DEPRESSION LAWS WERE UTTERLY DESTROYED AS REGULATORY FRAME WORK. Then we passed Dodd Frank the worst legislation on financial markets ever. Why?
Well as we advocate for Small Business in DC and we worked against DODD FRANK for all the right reasons – ( we needed to do real law not paint over wood rot with lead paint ) the problem we suggested began with DODD AND WITH FRANK but I’m not going there right now. The laws ( now being relaxed by the administration and treasury and congress ) created right when we did not need them – enormous cost and expense to the economic back bone – with no regulatory reality to reset the DEPRESSION DESTRUCTION of the Commodity Modernization Act the press can’t even remember. Ever heard a free press bought and paid for argue or report on these details – the only foundation issue to our financial mess of global proportions today?
Rolling Bear Market are you kidding me Morgan Stanley? My God you bought the firm that mentored me into the industry in the 1960’s Dean Witter now also forgotten as one of the GREAT GOOD GUYS – my hats tips to Bill Witter if he is still alive and to George who personally mentored me until his untimely death – I will always owe you for teaching me the economic alphabet ….
How far they fall when the greed becomes the need……..
Competitive capitalism /Socialist Capitalism System rule: earn the most profit in the shortest time ( 3 to 4 weeks to reporting ) for elite insiders at all and any cost to report the profit growth……
Cooperative Capitalism System Rule – Return maximum value to customers and society served while making a profit.
So you buy a new car. You acquire the car as a superior technology to get from point A to Point B over say a horse a buggy – the past 5000 years of technology.
The car manufacturer exists to improve society and the lives of their customers by introducing ever more features and comforts to benefit their buyers in moving from point A to point B. Soon self driving flying transports will take over moving us in better technology from point A to Point B. Then quantum technology will in fact beam us from point A to Point B.
You come to the gas station and you fill up. The gas is fuel required to get you from point A to point B. You did not buy the car to endless buy fuel. You bought the car to get from Point A to Point B but gas is required. Important why to economics?
Corporations and entrepreneurs produce to benefit society with their vision and inventions in produces goods and services. To improve life for all the rest of us as their focus. They did not create their cooperative capitalism venture to consumer and retain capital. Capital is like gas. Fuel. We need capital in ventures to get the venture from POINT A to POINT B of ever improving the feature benefits for the customers being served while making a profit. If the desire to hoard fuel – gas ( capital ) becomes the driving idea of business ( failed competitive and socialism economic system theories and models ) a GREED MACHINE destroys the reasons for FREE ENTERPRISE. The problem is system rules, education and regulatory frame work to assure human tendency for GREED is moderated back into focus pride and service to customers served as the REASON and ALL THE REASONS and the ONLY REASON for a venture to exist from Fortune institution to Dentist office.
Making money is not the WHY.
When making MONEY IS THE WHY the ONLY WHY humanity has lost everything in the end as economics will be horrifically imbalanced where 1% own more wealth than 99% which is frankly an insane form of economic modeling – and a crime literally against humanity – and the cause of all systemic global failures and world war – GREED and the lack of proper regulatory frame work elastic enough to model for rapidly evolving forward systemics.
For the first time we exist inside a new age of SUPER CHANGE. Super Change requires the most urgent human RE-THINK of Global Regulations in the frame work of human history – as modern super change weapons promise a world war of human complete extinction. Which we don’t believe but it is in fact reality.
….REGULATORY FRAME WORK FOR WORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS IS NO LONGER WORKING OR RISK MODERATING AS EVIDENCE BY ENDLESS CRIMES AND FRAUDS BANKS AND INVESTMENT BANKS PAY SMALL PROFITS IN FINES TO RESOLVE AND NO ONE GOES TO PRISON AND THE SYSTEM KEEPS LYING STEALING AND MASSIVELY DESTROYING IN THE END THE WEALTH OF NATIONS WITH ECONOMIC SLIGHT OF HAND LAW MAKERS BOUGHT AND PAID FOR HAVE NO CLUE IS TAKING PLACE AND LACK ECONOMIC TOOLS AND KNOWLEDGE TO ADVANCE A NEW FRAME WORK AS THE ONLY WAY OUT AND FORWARD WHILE TIME ITSELF IS RUNNING OUT AS WE REPEAT PRECISELY THE DEPRESSION OF 1907 AND 1929 – BUT WITH FAR FAR WORSE DESTRUCTIVE ECONOMIC IMBALANCES DUE TO THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE SPECULATIVE BETTING ( NON ECONOMIC CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT ) AND SUPER DEBT BUBBLE SPIRALS …….WHICH WILL END THE BANKS AND INVESTMENT BANKS ULTIMATELY AS HISTORY SHOWS US….TIME IS THE FIRST WILD CARD.
All this is outlined in my book REDEMPTION with data and details as what is really going on out there and what while time remains we can do to fix it. I have Called within this blog series for FIVE YEARS for the creation on the big Island of Hawaii with Congress person in Hawaii Jerry Chang setting it all up – for a G 100 THREE YEAR ECONOMIST OF NATIONS WORLD “ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS” to invent a new global box top rule set – outside the influence of lobby and money interest so conflicted that:
- Resets the global world order
- Defines regulations that work and preclude criminal speculation unwanted in any system
- Redirect capital to economic investing for nations
- Assure wealth never again concentrates into elites
- A no nation left behind economic partnership with the world of nations and its soon 10 billion humans being served
A self correcting – renewing legal frame work with every 10 years another conclave to review and adjust given the SUPER CHANGE and evolving AI.
So today – as we are on today are we not and the wild cards – lets look at 2019. Today the world leadership is not aware of the FACTUAL SUMMARY you now have nor does any institution teach or education this TRUE VERSION of economic systemic modeling failure and potential for re-invention. For if we do not know and understand our own financial history at core are we not doomed to relived the past all over again making the same errors our grandfathers made? As we are in fact doing just that.
TODAY-AND HISTORY THAT GOT US TO TODAY’S ECONOMICS
- The Super Debt Bubble is passing 300 trillion a number in ratio never known or experienced as RISK to system continuation with no end in stite.
- Interest is rising way too fast way too frequently way too high each time – using old antique models that have zero relevance to TODAY. Error in policy.
- Trade Wars if unresolved to DEALS promise a Depression event to follow if Fed error continues to create the tipping point to debt never known before global as it is machine right into the firestorm upon for member GREED. ( Read about FED FRAUD reported in this blog report scroll and get the truth and get smart fast ).
TIME is the asset.
Time is the issue.
Do we have time to work out the issues?
WE have with Trump a reset of economic policy:
- Lower regulatory frame works just starting
- Tax re-sets just starting to percolate with 1 trillion in USA investing rising to 2 trillion by year end as outcome
- Record boom globally record wealth all asset classes globally.
The risk to the TIME needed to continue the boom – the one risk – politics. If the Democrats win ( and I report economically no political thought involved at all ) we have GRID LOCK impeachment and Congress does not WORK just like the last 16 years with 1.8% growth versus 2018 where Congress worked just a little – with 4% growth.
If the Republicans win – because we vote in private outside party and politics economically with our WALLETS ( or not ) Congress works and we have more wild cards on TIME.
The first wild card if the REPUBLICANS WIN is INFRASTRUCTURE and THE WALL. Those two additional stimulus cards off set FED wrong way policy of raising interest too high – and produces a 2030 BOOM CYCLE and 2019 is a record wealth year – no ROLLING BEAR MARKET but setting ever new records world wide. The following happens as wild cards
- Republican win assures likely trade deals and a world box top reset on trade that guarantees America of a fantastic boom to 2030.
- Infrastructure guarantee’s America a boom into 2030.
- More regulatory cost reductions assures business growth
- More tax stimulus assure growth continuity.
- All of which takes millions off welfare and pay out and turns them into paying tax payers which makes TREASURY REVENUE soar and our debt becomes manageable and our credit rating ( cost of money ) elevates and costs lower.
Or now. Wild cards. If democrats win – the economic risk as CONGRESS WILL NOT WORK AND CONGRESS WILL GRID LOCK – we predict a sinking into recession in 2019 and no rolling bear market but an absolute SUPER CRASH.
We’ll see who is right …Morgan or our track record since the 1980’s to date 100% right including the Spring dip no expert reported as precisely.
THE POSSIBLE FUTURE OF CASINO CAPITALISM – TIME IS THE WILD CARD
Given no economic system ever produced by ratio more printed paper money to pay off economic system bad betting – a wealth transfer from failed private betting parlors we call banks and investment banks private equity firms and hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds – as a basket – all speculators in 2018 in the global digital casino capitalism – a first for mankind.
Today the AI of 90% of all capital movement is placed into side bets on which was an asset class will go – modeling profits along if the price goes up or down they make a net profit as long as there is movement in ranges protected ( in theory ) by AI modeling. The software is at the world leading:
- Arms race – development of self aware AI a billion times smarter than we are – coming soon – the AI arms race quarter to quarter one Super Money pool against the other Super money pool – including all nation and defense AI in a global arms race of trillions – who controls the ultimate self aware new species will control the world – no one appreciates who will win this arms race – everyone is in it and no capital flow is greater than this space – period.
- Ai now controls all world markets for the first time in wild leverage digital margin trading and fantastic leverage to capital side betting and profiting on volatility the AI itself creates. Investing in the market is a tail of you and I and means nothing as AI controls the roulette wheel and no one knows at all how this all will turn out.
- We predict we see moving forward more waste of economic capital investing into manipulation of stock pricing – see Apple for one – where investment is not made in AI and forward invention ( see Apple ) but is made into STOCK BUY BACKS to manipulate share price – once illegal and now after 1999 legal. A trillion dollars of job creating economics has been routed into this wild speculation so far in 2018 as waste of capital to humanity as elite 1% now profit and control more wealth than 99% most of whom are starving to death – for no reason but failure to improve the box top rules from insane economic greed to sanity because frankly we are as a collective so much better than THIS.
- The blind greed speculating will lead when time runs out – say in 2021 – 2022 without the wild cards set forth here extending time – speed humanity into a dark economic hole EVENT HORIZON we call DEBT DEFAULT CASCADING probably starting in Asia but could be Italy or the EU. The outcomes is a system Super Crash and closure of all financial institutions – the world as we know it freezes up – AI created the massive collapse – there is no liquidity – and no one can see outcome outside world war to rebalance the disaster when TIME as the asset runs out.
- The Federal Reserve Board is the cause of running out of time by raising interest rate too fast – way too soon – way too much – which is why we lobby for Congress and the President to merge the FED into the US TREASURY – with oversight and audits missing today – as the Fed is not independent – its is owned by shareholder banks and investment banks who profit massively as a CRIMINAL CONSPIRACY AGAINST HUMANITY for greed alone in the cost of money itself – unless Fed policy of 1907 and 1929 the CAUSE OF THE TWO DEPRESSIONS AND WORLD WAR is interrupted with URGENCY as TIME IS RUNNING OUT OF OUR HOUR GLASS – the report of their history – is again depression system failure and world war. The cause is economics and the FED and a lack of new regulatory frame work – all central bank in real time AI digital ages need to merge back into their treasuries they are killing their nations with failed policy repeating as CAUSE.
You are now becoming economically literate.
Speculation is not economics.
If the circulation of capital is disproportionately profiting from unwanted system largely unregulated side bet speculations versus real economic investing and the casino betting is all largely borrowed margin trading at fantastic leverage – in huge % to casino betting 95% of capital circulation versus 5% real economic investing – due to a lack of regulatory. modernization as: the laws are all LOCAL and wholly ANTIQUE to digital AI economics – and the trades are all DIGITAL AI in the CLOUD outside any local regulation – the system will in TIME implode as economics must rebalance.
The theory there is AI Digital diskless risk is absurd distraction to the side betting risk taking place as a RISK SPIRAL in SIDE BETTING PROFIT MAKING in a new digital CASINO CAPITALISM the world has never known – not ever before – spinning enormous economic imbalances only a G 100 can with TIME repair – working in cooperation ( sanity ) versus every nation for itself competitions ( insanity ) whose outcome is system fatality. The RISK INDEX is off any chart of any past depression and or world war cause and is in a death spiral which only time if new regulatory frame works are forged can repair.
The very announcement of the ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS OF THE G 100 NATIONS will extend time to our prosperity and as the new rules are developed the market will massively move to protect itself from casino crimes into legal economic investment – propelling all nations into the future without system failure and world war.
Sane of insane.
Economic history repeating ( which it is but worse due to digital casino capitalism and leverage debt super bubbles 300 trillion now and rising globally ) were TIME is our only way forward if we don’t run out.
Rolling Bear Market from the kids at Morgan. Great headline silly economics as it all is so much more complex than THAT data as you see more Clearly here.
Finally the wild card of election manipulation and influence:
- First all firms that Trump cost billions to – phamrs – Wall Street – Defines Contractors are side investing in packs to elect democrats to secure their legal theft in the digital casino – into the future – how would they not?
- Nations in trade war and all sanctioned nations are investing billions in packs and illegal state sponsored manipulation to divide and elect democrats as never before to stop TRUMP COLD – unwind sanctions cold – and continue the unfair trade they profit from and they know and love – trillions at stake – how could they not?
No election now in digital space more than media space has ever had the manipulation and spin to defeat the REFORM TEAM the TRUMP TEAM attempting to place TIME into resolving the pig economically in the python. To reform the GREED MACHINE.
So the parting of the Red Sea is raised up fully by voters
- Reform on one side
- Deep state thats the way we have always done it on the other
Will the voters be manipulated by the money?
WILD CARD no one knows nor can anyone predict until NOVEMBER – we’ll all know soon.
That is the RISK folks make no mistake as you invest to protect your self from risk.
Berny Dohrmann – LOL AT ROLLING BEAR MARKET – CUTE THOUGH
PS: To my airplane seat buddy analyst – pretend is just a Marvel Comic book story but I warned you – your tribe is reading world wide – as its a bit addictive the truth don’t you think? Hey analyze the little ball spinning on the wheel of fortune there is still time……