NO RECESSION – A TALE OF TWO MARKETS
I’ve been very ill. But I’ve been researching with my teams globally. The data is piling up so some conclusions can be made. First in most economic sectors globally the markets are doing very well across measured index tallies. You read these details in Fed and National reporting. Which requires some expert filtering to understand fully I appreciate that.
Second you have obscure issues that are the other markets. Our concern here relates to:
- The drop in capital good orders for the world and China and the USA specifically in March and again in May. Expert economist predicted growth and as both months declined the graph is not sending out good juju.
- Transportations are showing sluggishness. PE’s and Hedge Funds and investment banks are shorting transportations expecting continued decline.
Both are used as head winds to growth and suggest into 2019 we have some issues rising if these numbers do not reverse and they may well reverse. The US Secretary of Treasury ( we like to call him munchkin like the King of the Munchins over their in clean green emerald city of OZ with all his other munchkins they are all so cute when they sing and tell us all to follow the Trump painted yellow Brick road ) – never discussing the wicked witch of SUPER CRASH and recession along that road.
But King Bill suggests we are about to have big quarterly GNP numbers that will surprise the markets but now me.
We have reported to you the second half of this year starting really now will turn in numbers that will stun you as when we told you to buy into GE and check that out with your broker. Big upgrades today on GE as a buy stock now that their reorg is complete. They done good! American’s we got this. 14 YEARS Of horror on one man’s watch and 18 months of pain but turn around ( thats months ) on another CEO’s watch. What a difference a CEO makes. Apple needs to think that through.
So we believe the second half of this year with all the good earnings in the first half – with the worst winter periods globally effecting trade on record – will be enormous. 78% of all spending – will occur from here to December.
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So the market is booming world wide. But there is cooling circles around this warm growth. Durable good orders and transports tell us what the future might look like. Is it cooling? We allow for the winter effect in the numbers and are waiting for forward June Reporting this July to see the guidance. We are OPTIMISITIC of a continued upward economic growth into 2019 and 2020.
WE DO NOT SEE SIGNS PRESENTLY WITHOUT UNFORESEEN THIRD PARTY GLOBAL EVENT TRIGGERS SUCH THAT CURRENT GROWTH IS LIKELY WORLD WIDE INTO 2020. Confidence is well deserved to remain at record breaking levels across all measured polls.
The Trade Wars are wild cards and cranking upward. President Trump is installing RECIPROCITY TRADE POLICY Policy? What is that?
RECIPROCITY TRADE POLICY uses real time computers to match trade taxes nations place on all US goods that are far higher than anything the USA places on their goods. Over years nations have taken advantage of the USA. 25 years of discussion have not fixed one item of this problem. A mountain of trade imbalances is a threat to the economic system at core. Re-balancing that trade imbalance is not desired economics it is required economics.
So RECIPROCITY TRADE seeks to remove tariff’s as trading partners do remove theirs or lower and raise as they raise theirs. When we match and they raise we over raise. America as the largest buyer in the world of everything will find new markets aligning with fair trade partners and unfair trade partners may indeed go into recession in their nations when policies seek to protect their home grown stuffs from open and fair trade rule partnerships.
The super money trying to preserve its unfair economic advantage and profits is so upset why?
Take Germany the one engine remaining in the EU as France has a host of issues that make its own future questionable. Germany is. the largest EXPORT nation in the EU. The largest sector is automotive from their criminal VW brand product lines, to the highest end Mercedes and bow lines. Germany fears with taxes taken off their auto’s ( and their Prime Minister has suggested should would discuss removing those 10% duties ) THAT – what follows is Germans and the entire EU buying American high end cars say just Cadillac given more equal pricing – and their core home industry would lose market share. As taxes are now RECIPROCITY to their tax on our cars ( higher than 10% all taxes included ) German car sales are falling rapidly due to the USA market closing less TAXY items when buying high ticket.
Mistakes in the EU on trade policy could CRASH versus lead the EU into a terrible recession. In a terrible EU recession the EU debt pallet can not be sustained. The roll over of current debt amounts by 100’s of trillions into higher interest carrying cost in new roll over loans – would in a EU RECESSION commence debt default cascading which would effect the EU breaking up in our opinion and a potential global black swan event looking ahead.
The EU and ASIA are well advised to complete new trade deals in good faith quickly. Time is not on their side due to a debt super bubble in those nations. Economics is unforgiving for error.
If politics run economics great risk lies ahead.
If economics run politics great prosperity for all of us lies ahead.
Within all this policy and good to really GREAT news coming from the majority of nations and corporate high earning rising higher – is the black swan event to markets created by failure in OIL POLICY.
Oil costs 10.50 cents on average to lift to market. Selling at 30 dollars a barrel oil generates a 300% profit margin. At 80 dollars a barrel you can see the GREED SPEED and do the match. Oil is a replenishing renewable fuel where the earth farts and shits oil. Any story you have been spoon fed by fraudsters liars and oil suppliers that suggest OIL IS LIMITED precious or that we are running low or out of oil is FRAUD on a global scale and you are hypnotized by oil money and spin. The only reason the COST OF EVERYTHING – energy – is so high – is a FEW wage economic war with the many or 7 billion of us. As they spend more money than anyone but bankers and the Wallstreet Globally united lobbies – law makers pass policies to protect oil based on their constant fear of what takes place if they don’t.
I’ve lobbied here that the US and UK and other smart nations go into the OIL business like Russia has to be a counter weight on world price. This model has the following going for it:
- Profits from oil will pay off national debt.
- Research by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF OIL AGENCY or NASOA creates new unheard of research to locate and drill for oil precisely and new technology research revolutionizing oil recovery refining and storage – for cleaner burning fuel outflows.
- Price – NASOA is a counter weight to criminal OPEC cartels that raise profits to 1000% in a callous war against the 7 billion who lack food due to energy cost being too high too long.
Oil can tip the world into recession eventually and create a global system melt down. There is no policy to moderate the greed of oil cartels among nations. The G 100 could create a treaty law that the G 100 will buy no oil not priced by its G 100 pricing board for oil globally. Another way to FIX the oil risk and economic imbalance in oil markets.
OIL is a wild card to the markets today. Oil is priced by criminals on trumped up threats to imply supply will be reduced – when in fact that is a lie. Oil profits are outrageous as a band of thugs and criminals control oil the FEW AGAINST THE MANY economics a dying economic model soon to be outlawed by LAWS we suspect ad advocate for in many nations.
Policy improves with information that is accurate.
Policy declines with information that is false. Policy errors occur.
The future belongs to more successful sensible economic policies.
Such policies are working their way into global markets now.
This extends enormous HOPE AND PROMISE for the peoples of the world. Why?
You can hate him to his bone marrow or love him to his eye brows either way – it is good for the world to have a REPUBLICAN CONGRESS that “WORKS” versus a divided congress that will no longer work at all next year. VOTERS might debate on this item.
Berny Dohrmann – WHATS GOING ON OUT THERE IS CEOSPACE JULY 16TH – explore improved options to make more money faster with zero delays going into the second half.
PS: I’m healing up – two days to docs and IV’s back to back – have faith.