The economy in the USA had its entire manufacturer sector revised downward over recent months in 2018. The fact is manufacturing declined. In April housing feel off. a cliff. The only inflation is the phony oil price driven by speculators.

Despite Venezuela crashing its out put due to lack of investment, maintenance, replacing worn out gear, and a communism implosion in economy, the nation keeps on pumping. Its oil is down 90% from several years ago. Its recovery is impossible. Communist Venezuela ends like all Communist economies – in bankruptcy. Venezuela is in bankruptcy now but does not know it yet. Checkmate. No moves left. No way out. The people chose communism now they die with communism. Always the way. The system is predictable and has no future. Time to leave communism and socialism as a nice experiment – well intended – but economically tragically flawed. Those systems have no future but pain for their people all not required. Oil wealthy Venezuela is dying because of the flaws in communism.

The rest of the world has picked up, with non OPEC output the market share and the customers and the supply Venezuela lost. Communism. The cost is the customers lost by one of the top five oil producers never return. Venezuela lost its market share and can never get that market share back. Today major oil firms are repossessing billions in ships, oil, and assets in ports everywhere. Communist economy Venezuela is surrounded on all sides by its creditors in defaults, it has no revenue or assets to pay the debts, and the communist with money in off shore banks are running for the hills before riots kill them off as that civil war is on the way. The economics of Venezuela consume decades to find a new way. Bankrupt. Over. Done. No way forward. IT is too late for communist economics – always a failed model.

Iran sells oil primarily to China North Korea and India. Does anyone thinks US Sanctions will effect Iran market share and oil? I don’t? We have zero we can do to IRAN. The failure to honor Iran as Iran honored their multi nation pack is an insult to our nation. Congress and our President signed a multi nation agreement. If the USA is a liar and no signed agreement it makes matters, we have lost our way as a nation. If there is a diplomatic outcome already defined to this process, patience will tell us. If there is not and the cost is a bad bad economic outcome, which many believe it will be, than the decision to not honor the agreements of the United State will prove to be historic and wrong.

The impact that agreements we make as a nation are worthless, is now effecting North Korea. Trump looks like a fool when North Korea says hey fuck you we won’t meet after all because we need to keep our nukes at night to assure our feet are warm.

FAT BOY is a hoot. I’m not sure he won’t stroke out with one more burger and fries before the meeting in Singapore.

We always know that what North Korea and FAT BOY say in the press means nothing. FAT BOY will make a choice. Be destroyed and lose your country – we are there there actually – or enjoy unimaginable prosperity. Either way the USA wins economically. The economics are weighted to the USA not to North Korea. So Trump sits on the throne and plays his thumb game never looking up but to tweet. For Trump the outcome is we win. For North Korea the outcome is we may win we may not.

Oil rose 4.9 million barrels in US Storage this week. Oil has replaced all OPEC cut backs and then some. Saudi said this week the glut is removed. That is a Saudi consistent oil propaganda to prop up price and prevent an oil crash to 50 dollars which is coming soon enough. The world is drowning in OIL. SAUDI and OPEC lie to keep prices high – they have zero cards left.

If they pump less they lose market share. If they pump more they sell oil at prices lower than they desire and required for the debt and red ink economies – spending more than they make even at 80 dollar oil – at 50 the Saudi folks are really in pain. Their day to dictate and control oil price is coming to an end. We believe OPEC is in process of breaking up behind the scenes for all the right reasons.

  1. OPEC is a joke economically.
  2. Its members are identified as ELITE SUPER WEALTH that taxes its customers seeking maximum greed premium for its oil sales to nation – the customers are no longer amused – billions are in the outcomes.
  3. The illegal oil cartel seeking to artificially keep prices at premium for their own account ( THE FEW AGAINST THE MANY ) are seen as earth polluters, as committed crimes against humanity and the environment, and in conflict of interest to their own customers – a failed system of price control is ending in 2018.
  4. The members of OPEC are economically at war with market share loss – a trillion dollars – and price to earn back lost income by GAUGING their own best clients and nations while American Crude is almost 10.00 a barrel less – this week than SAUDI OPEC CRUDE and American Crude is much lower cost to refine – it is better quality oil for less.
  5. OPEC is in its last gasp as members seeing the hand writing on the cost to their nations over SAUDI 24 month failed policy are going to punish SAUDI by withdrawing formally from OPEC. Iran may form its own OPEC against SAUDI. A Civil war inside Saudi Palaces and Royals is spiraling out of control and soon the press and world will see that impact on oil prices and OPEC membership. OPEC is a damn with breaches and water leaks everywhere ( economically ) the damn ( OPEC ) is about to BURST. Downstream is 50 dollar oil.

Oil is a market of “every nation for themselves”. Obsess on market share. Give your buyers the best price over log term formula’s. Protect your customers from price gauging. You will have loyal clients and you will deserve the market share. Do things the OPEC way you lost billions. Pump what you can to make money. Sell what you pump at the lowest possible price to make a profit. Give your customers value. Be human. Allow developing nations to grow into full economic partnership – FULL PARTNERSHIP – with the world driven by low cost energy to arrive at FULL PARTNERSHIP. Elites the FEW AGAINST THE MANY….is a dying model globally.  The Jeff Bezos model of obsessing on your customer is the new model.

Do you think CHINA paying speculator premium prices for oil at billions that could develop its nation now routing to oil robbers in OPEC is – in integrity? We don’t have a crises of leadership. We do have a crises of INTEGRITY world wide folks. This is what we need ourselves to example and make bold when we vote.

OPEC is the most hated institution in the world.

OPEC members are seen behind their back and all the smiles in media as criminals. No group has raped the world for more wealth over a longer period of time than OPEC. The most successful criminal institution the world has ever been victim of. The OPEC cartel is self destructing following too many billions in loss and policy failure that the members are finding their are shunned and facing penalties of membership. OPEC MEMBERS leaving will prosper those staying will die a slow economic death and perhaps with some deaths.

OPEC IS IMPLODING. ARMCO  -we feel will be the worst – IPO making the errors in FACEBOOKS launch look like a child’s wading pool. Saudi has never told the truth. About the oil GLUT which is roaring – the WORLD IS DROWING IN OIL. The ARMCO Shareholders face this:

  1. The WORLD is DROWNING in OIL.
  2. Supply is rising faster than demand for years.
  3. OPEC price controls is shattering as OPEC implodes.
  4. Demand for OIL is crashing in earth shifting velocity over 25 years in pure down graph on oil demand
  5. Oil price will crash and stay market price versus cartel priced.

ARMCO – is coming into the IPO market as a tribe of liars. The stock will soar on speculation buy in’s by institutions seeking contracts from the Saudi nation in construction mineral development and resort hospitality contracts. This model will fail. Why?

First the stock holders are leverage and going to lose in margin calls like no other offering – over time – in history. AS THE TRUTH about Saudi red ink rises, debt soars, oil prices drops, market share continues to evaporate and the world abandons due to loss and lies the Gulf Partners that fail to get the integrity equation. Keep in mind the people are TERRIFIC but the leadership is in disarray as the 70 year old OIL dominates energy has come to a closure and the drop off a cliff for oil is the 25 year window looking forward starting this year when SAUDI failure in policy since 2012 moves oil at 80 or move to 50 or below – for a long long time  – and only war in the Gulf is the wild card to artificially keep oil higher but that has a short term duration to a. long time cliff SAUDI has run out of time to moderate through diversification – now too late and too weak for its economic requirements with risk taking that follows a necklace of failure policy. The 140 dollar oil to 29.00 dollars last year is one example. SAUDI policy is a group of 25 educated elite planners – stuck in that is the way we have always done it thinking.

We wrote our friends ( the KING ) and hand carried proposals to economically close their policy competency gaps. A WHITE PAPER hand carried to the office of the KING by one of their leading contracting firms who GOT IT. The King and all the KINGS MEN toured the USA to develop business and billions in looser capital under looser plans that in SUPER CHANGE ECONOMICS are no longer relevant or current or profit making as a basket strategy. A trillion of loss is coming. Why?

Currency. The game plan is not current to the reality of economics. The temporary over the long term is a policy error that kicks the cans down the road and bankrupts structure more absolutely. It reminds me of cities in China with no one in the city at all.

Policy failure.

While you can kick the CAN economically down the road – lies are always understood by Super Money Pools and failed policy is always appreciated. SAUDI has failed OPEC utterly and is now in the final stages and phases of bankruptcy though it will not look like that for a long period of years. The CAN has been kicked down the road. However awakes in SAUDI are inside a Saudi civil war that is spiraling out of all control in politics, tribal culture, region, and historic tradition. Those who embrace the breach and changes are behind the Puppy King who proceeds as if there was no civil war at all when in two years – the Puppy King is the cause agent. The existing KING is filtered by his own son. Those on the more traditional rule and tradition of SAUDI are making plans. Those who want something other than a KING are in another camp. These factions are spiraling into actions that de-stabilize the Saudi stability of the past. Iran totally in now as SAUDI flew in to influence TRUMP to tear up a President signed Congress approved multi nation treaty as if USA agreements are integrity breaches at signing. Iran abused and not amused by a proxy war in the Gulf for 25 years between SAUDI and IRAN – now is heating up beyond boiling. Iran may throw the first economic – we are formerly DEPARTING OIL policy with OPEC MEMBERSHIP as a failed model from a PUPPY KING. Iran can and may fatally spin SAUDI into oil CRASH benefiting the people of IRAN – taking market share from SAUDI and bringing SAUDI red ink to the floor boards of bankruptcy and social unrest while IRAN massively profits. Who thinks any of this is going on or likely ? Follow the money and what is really going on out there.

Saudi has a failed oil policy. Nigeria has a successful oil policy and replaces what Venezuela lost. The GLUT is huge and rising. Oil price rising is insane SAUDI stuff with a up to 10 dollar price differen of American Market Crude to Saudi phone price gauging crude as OPEC market share for Russia plunges. Russia may Join IRAN and move out of Saudi OPEC which elevates RUSSIA market share revenue and powers and repays SAUDI for kicking the Iran agreement down the road – bad policy.

So built on bullshit – IRAN is having oil cut off by US SANCTIONS – not taking place for months – not possible to reinstate without EU and global partners – a shame a joke – not real – and IRAN rising production will not stop all OPEC CUT BACKS as they are at war with SAUDI OPEC and economically the war is full one as is the civil war …and everyone in the gulf knows this.

So the Puppy King plays checkers and has said KING ME.

The opposing civil war factors play chess – one up and two over – check mate – your terminated. Bam and your dead.

The Spiraling CIVIL war in SAUDI comes as OIL PRICES are about to plunge – stability is about to be rocked – OPEC is about to implode and investment is about to move by trillions to stability platforms like UAE JORDON AND EGYPT AND IRAN and out of Saudi and OPEC partners in civil war melt down – and bankruptcy – SAUDI 100 billion in the red after stealing 100 billion from its own royals in 2018. Debt rising and red ink hemorrhaging. Truth versus lies.

Venezuela is moving to rapid bankruptcy as a failed state due to communist economics ( which as with china borrow 300% more than they earn – the USA borrows 75% of its GNP – big difference our ten years ). USA DEBT is reported as ratio to existing GNP versus the soaring rise in tax receipts to the USA as employment takes millions off state allowances and makes those millions tax payers a double positive whammy for USA treasury which is why dollar value is SOARING in the world to normalization.

Folks today the economic boom and recovery is a feature of:

  1. Phony oil prices taking too much away from nations to continue to expand consumer spending and real growth as a SUPER CRASH could result.
  2. FED policy to far too rapidly and far too frequently raise interest prices – a policy failure – versus anticipation a 80 dollar to 50 dollar future oil price in 2018 – a inflation well under target and a SUCCESS POLICY of slow – twice a year raises for ten years versus any other normalization plan.

Either 1 or 2 create a recession both create a recession for sure. The question now is what unfolds in both.

Now you KNOW when betting inside casino capitalism why what when how to look out for when you read your tea leaf’s with new glasses.




PS: Share this blog with political leaders – business owners and investors press private equity hedge funds and super money pools as one resource to consider – as information is power.