ISRAEL KICKS IRAN IN THE FISCAL BALLS – OR DID THEY?

In 2018 voters who are informed – and financial markets who read this blog and CEO’s world wide – who subscribe ( free ) to this data – need to always THINK – BRAIN WASHING in Political Theater – or  follow the between the line tea leaves folks. Read with glasses we provide for you. Offices for decades in the Gulf and Israel we have some insight by living in the theater versus reading the news sound bytes. We interpret them.

Now –  Israel today released a trove of stolen intel from Iran. A level of embarrassment in Iran that is a crises in nation to their enemy – who just booed them Monday and took out 100’s of surface to air missiles and 100 of missions in ordinance and in Syria a lot of Iran figures – dead. Bam. Then the Israel POLITICAL THEATER for prime time consumption. Against what back drop?

  1. Well the Saudi Puppy King just saw Trump and captain of US industry and MONEY to secure his Kingdom’s investment and weapons. Billions upon billions. In weapons.
  2. France just met with Trump to secure a Saudi Balanced policy that unspun the Puppy Kings SPIN on Iran.
  3. Israel warming up to Iran buddies with Egypt and Jordon and Trump joined at the hip ( briefed before this went down for sure ) slammed France and Iran to the floor boards before the May 12th – days from now Trump BUMP on will he stay in or opt out of the Iran Deal.
  4. Whats at stake. Well Regional stability – oil prices soaring and sending the world into recession – trade wars – Iran defending itself against the Puppy King and maybe charging to take over Iraq and Saudi – which truly they can do if they act fast enough.
  5. What if Tump plays a DEAL CARD – he could stay in – meet the leadership and negotiate a deal with face saving diplomacy over a longer time line _ France’s plan – or he could ally up and decide to derail IRAN influence and favor the PUPPY KING as it is all Iran and Saudi today and for decades – we are caught in money and powers in the Gulf that have zero to do with us – at any level at all. Now as the # 1 oil producer at 11 million barrels a year in 2018 forward – we don’t need the GULF at all for anything really – sand?

But the Gulf needs US. The Gulf needs our trade our money and our police keeping so the entire Region doesn’t go crazy and if they had nukes – which frankly why make them they can buy them from rocket boy – rocket boy can negotiate over years to have zero nukes having sold them all to Iran or other buyers for so many billons it makes rocket boy richer than Buffer or Bezos in 36 months. I’m sure I’m the only one thinking along these lines. How many Nukes given Iran has pin point missiles has rocket boy already sold them for missiles he now can use to negotiate when the cards come onto the table REALLY in May with Trump? Real Cards.

Probably no one is playing such poker and I”m crazy to think this way I’m just looking at history say from Greece and Rome when the CROSS BOW was the NUKE. Hey the Roman Battle Field fighting say Cleopatra and Roman Mark Anthony would have say – 1000 telephone pole spears loaded in Cross Bows – firing 10,000 across the Charing horses and Chariots per hour – in syncrinized battle field saturation bombing – the weapon to end all weapons – and of course they won. Just looking backward to get an idea of looking forward folks as all this stuff is no longer taught really unless your a major in education and history – which is far from policy making. Sad. Really.

We learn from history or we are buried by history as the weapons of Rome only get more nasty year by year.

As the “barbarians” acquire the weapons of Rome – which they have – say in Pakistan and in North Korea and China and Russia and say Iran – Rome has well – what? Sea stuff that can be taken our in five minutes. Ports that are all gone in 30 minutes. Bases all gone in 60 minutes. Rome has what when “they” have acquired the weapons of Rome. It took 36 months for ROME to follow after those acquisitions. How long for Modern Rome? I guess your all watching CNN and buying in to the bought and paid for what we serve as news today and you have stopped THINKING? For say YOUR SELF?

So with agenda what do we know.

First – the Mossad is the most powerful effective intelligence agency in the world outside the Catholic Church and the Jesuits. I know I was trained by them. Supposed to be a priest as the oldest son a ton of years ago – way before my 9 thank you God children I’ve raised.

Funny really given how small Israel is how limited its overall budget compared to MI6 or CIA or NSA or many others. The Mossad like the Canadian mounties always gets their man and gets intel like no agency can or does not ever. In Syria we get our intel that matters most from the Mossad if and when they chose to trust our iffy integrity to give it to us. They are # 1 in the world in accuracy and unique proposition.

So the Mossad unleashed its pot of gold. Tons of documents. Digitally taken from the heart of Iran security. How embarrassing to Iran? Given billions – untold billions are at risk – to their people – depending on the spin flows from this POLITICAL THEATER at its highest level timed to DERAIL any forward Iran powers in the Region. To restart starving Iran into behavior or Saudi desired leadership change. Unlikely in our near term history.

Iran has its own PR problems. It conducts its PR for the internal consumption of complex faction alliances that combine to the power structure in place inside IRAN. This internal diet does not signal the model of global partnerships that actually gives Iran what they wish.

First – Iran is paranoid in extreme – and they should be – about strategy and attacks all over the Gulf on Iran and its people by Saudi and its leadership and Kingdom policy. As both nations are muslim and have more in common than not – it would be sane to see the parties meet and hammer our their own Regional Deal and treaty and trade agreements – and stabilize their own theater together. Nothing would bring American home and out of Region compared to that sane outcome.

The power shifted when the new tribe and King rose up and the Puppy King Apparent made it clear policy was to be at war with Iran from Saudi and why.

Since than – two years solid – the outpouring or state propaganda against Iran has been weighted and unbalanced. Iran has little PR to defend against the week week never ending attacks. Public opinion is framed up by these investments – say 100s of millions – against IRAN to a million trying to fight all that. Minds are bought and paid for to what outcome?

Why WAR of course.

The Saudi propaganda is:

  1. Iran or Persia was once the PERSIAN EMPIRE and controlled most of the world trade wealth and rule of law across the entire Region – encroaching on Europe where two world wars divided and set all that back into its present the victors drew new lines and created new frame works of nations.
  2. Saudi believes that Iran wishes to destabilize their ruling Kingdom to a mirror of itself. Saudi believes and influences other gulf nations to believe Iran wishes to RESTORE THE PERSIAN EMPIRE and rule the entire Region.
  3. Iran is a nation about the size of LA in population. Its economy is largely driven by trade with alliance partners in the Gulf Region and in Indonesia and Asia. Oil being a back bone but Iran is a diversified economy with growing strength across many fronts.
  4. iran has seen ISIS and the vacuums failed American policy left in Iraq and Region as threat to its own trading economic partner nations. When called on by its trading partners to invest to help them – Syria – Iraq and others – it acted and did so. In fact next to America and perhaps ahead of America Iran spilt the most blood and invested the next most money behind Russia in Syria and Iraq – to which both nations are so deeply grateful to IRAN their economy partner and their stability partner who died by their sides to stabilize horror from insane brains ISIS and the alliance of terror and extreme forces .
  5. Iran and its partners see Saudi as the bank for the insane brains. They see Saudi as sowing instability with endless dollars to propel their MASTER FAITH over the Region and their influence.

So when you read past Saudi spin you see that Iran is opposing Saudi instability investing against Iran and allies to Iran. Iran is also without interest to invade or attack Saudi but is well prepared – the best military in theater – a million person hugely well trained and outfitted military – to defend its own interest. Iran is not Iraq. If the USA for example were to set up a war item with Iran they can put missiles with non nukes but horrible weapons – into LA and New York city. They would lose any war but the cost to America would be greater than any cost since World War II….over say what? Why?

What is our WHY?

Is charing Iran by Saudi throwing sand in the world giants eyes – that is SAUDI home birth place and funder of exported terror region wide and  world wide. By charing terror upon Iran ( which may be all a real lie ) does Saudi get away with it? Have they in fact? Are that blind to the facts. Can we see clearly and balanced information today? Any nation can make a weapons of mass destruction case – we did and that was a lie. For historical example the GULF nations have far form forgotten or forgiven. Why should they?

So the theory that Iran is an evil might be reviewed to play at least a what if game – what if Iran is not Evil. What if Saudi is evil? What if both are not evil? What if both are evil?  What glasses will we wear and why?

So the world two economic theory was – keep the Gulf divided and fighting among themselves – a 2000 year old never ending generational tradition of historic proportions. Nothing new there. They have done all that to themselves. That has been world policy .

Since World War II the money poured into the Gulf – to stabilize nations – has been well – a tax on the world. The Gulf nations rest on mineral wealth where oil is actually the least important. When the Gulf nations fully exploit their mineral riches the economics of this part of the world will fuel education and economics for unborn generations. The hold back is politics – vision – and integration of resources over the entire Region. To get to this wealth estate for the region the home of civilization – needs to celebrate tribal cultural religious and political diversity and cease punishing it.

Competition – insane.
Cooperation – sanity.

The USA has economics to consider. If oil due to political consequence between the nations rises when the world requires low cost energy to develop and sustain prosperity for its peoples – starting with food security a product of oil price – the first economic reality is oil PRICE versus oil supply.

Moving forward oil supply is the post world war II politic.

If that model continues we are in a high risk for economic stress points.

The new model should be PRICE of OIL versus supply. Securing a world inclusive right price for a plentiful fuel is required. At worst the USA should move to produce oil and control price along with allies as a policy finally blocking – the FEW AGAINST THE MANY with cartel artificial price control. Today the world worries about 300,00 barrels of Iran oil a day – which should be rightfully 1 million barrels a day. The USA will rise up 10.4 million barrels a year to over 11,000,000 barrels a day – non opec suppliers will raise up over 300,000 barrels a day in the coming period – offsetting IRAN going to ZERO – which is impossible.

So sanctions – how can scansions impact IRAN?

Well as sanctions go – not really very much. Decades of Sanctions have not impacted IRAN Economics. Could Iran be far more prosperous. You bet.

If Iran wants a Nuke they can make one in 36 months or less. They can use plans from rocket boy or ally Pakistan who exported their nuke plans to Iran anyway. Starting it all.

So what did POLITICAL THEATER DO?

Well first – we are not told by Israel how long they have had this trove? Say five years or longer? just in? WHEN? That is a big item to review reality against.

Iran says – all this was fully disclosed to the UN before the big Iran deal was reached which our Secretary of State Kerry negotiated to final form – over much pain pressure illness and commuting.

Teams of all NATO allies signed off on the treaty.

These are the best brains we got.

Was it perfect. Of course not. Iran is threatened by Saudi and they don’t have reassurance their government will be respected. The trade that they hoped for after the deal never came. The USA Saudi ballet worked against the deal with Israel from day one ink drying to stop trade – delay trade -which Iran saw dealing in bad faith.

Iran says – we stopped our stuff just like we contracted to do. Of course we kept our files and have our research like any nation who would not. We were never required to turn them over or to destroy them.

Israel ( from Iran’s view ) today – was just bored by Israel losing untold millions in munitions and many deaths – and then at Prime Time the other shoe drops with the INFORMATION DATA TROVE. Israel does its POLITICAL THEATER ( best in the world folks ) to label Iran a LIAR.

But is Iran a liar?

What lie?

They said they didn’t have a secret nuke program when they did. So secret nuke programs are state secrets of course they lie. Do we lie about how the NSA spies on us all – you bet. Do we disclose our real latest EMP and related digital war fare weapons – of course not. Do we lie – about our assignations – political influence on elections world wide and more? Do we lie? Does the EU lie. Does the leadership of nations lie?

So there are expected – so what lies.

There are bomb shells change the game lies.

So lets review:

FACTS:

Israel – love those guys – but I love all the gulf teachers who have made me better than I was before they taught me – too.

Israel says – here is this trove days before Trump – and Trump should can the Iran agreement.

Israel makes it harder for France to broker EU support to stay in the deal.

EU folks like Germany are now pouring over the INTEL and we assume our three letters folks already have it at Langley and are doing the same. Very smart brains are up late and over time for a sprint to the 12th to advise the President. What is really in that stuff.

It seems to be as Iran states it is:

  1. Old stuff – related to before the agreement was signed.
  2. That they stored their files after shutting down – what did we expect – the agreement ALLOWED them to of course preserve the billions invested into the research to that date in time.
  3. The Iran leadership stopped nuke development cold.
  4. Inspectors confirmed the cold stop – period – scouts honor.
  5. Iran says they disclosed this trove detail and it was all fully discussed nothing new at all here.

Israel Political theater timing says with a billion watching for sure Monday PM and now on it world wide – with all the consistent name calling – WE HATE THESE GUYS AND THEY ARE EVIL LIARS>

Iran say – yawning – SO WHAT – really – thats wall you got – old news. We have complied fully and we deserve full partnership from the nations that signed with us – why are we not trusting versus suspicious.

Syria – Israel says Iran is setting up permeant shop. Iran says we can’t wait to leave after helping our neighbor defeat terror. Years in with more manpower than the USA and more deaths than anyone but Syrians – last two months the Capitol of Syria was bombed again and again by a suburb. Like West Virginia to the White House. The DC folks in Syria were rally passed off and drove their resources from Russia and Iran and USA and Syria in mass to take the terror OUT completely – and radical muslim’s left by the thousands. The blood shed and horror was not SYRIA’ s choice – they agreed to the CEASE FIRE the Terrorist used to consolidate and attack.

Here is s fact. The Terrorist lie. They also can create gas attacks to frame Syria which is what Syria says. We don’t have the facts back from the world committee’s investigating YET. Russia says do not judge them based on terror input please. We did and we do though.

Who is really right?  Hassad says we ARE NOT USING THESE WEAPONS why would we – we are winning decisively why would we risk the wrath of the world – why? Those weapons harm.US not the enemy ? No one believes them and Saudi is spinning against Iran and Syria and funding the terror killing USA troops. Now that as a fact ask the King of Jordon for his take on this paragraph. The ruler in the Gulf that is in integrity and who never lies. Not ever. Trust the King gf Jordon first as mediator to these facts.

So Saudi wishes the Iran deal broken and the price of to soar. Its entire nation is on a the brink. In RED INK borrowing to fund. They are about to offer ( in my opinion ) a pure fraud public offering on ARAMCO to the world sucking in untold wealth to temporarily hold them over. The Puppy King has vision plans that have no basis in profit making to sustain the nations forward wealth if Oil dropped to $ 50.00. Bucks. Which I’ve told you after spiking into the summer the crash will be enormous shock to Saudi but not to Iran. Iran is going to elevate output to over 1 million barrels a day – in our opinion it is only time till they do. This will depreciate Saudi influence economically and in oil supply globally.

The oil war is real and it is on and the war is economic.

Saudi wants to depreciate Iran.

It is working to ramp oil price up to fuel is Aramco stock offering and to fuel new debt to underwrite massive infrastructure projects. The economic race is what wars come forth from.

We suggest Saudi and its political economic interest and Iran and its political economic interest – derail the tension. How?

  1. They agree by May 12th to hold an IRAN SAUDI ECONOMIC SUMMIT to establish a REGIONAL TRADE PACK where no muslim nation is left behind in Region.
  2. To stablze the Region between the two leading powers on forward policy.
  3. To advise Trump to stay in the IRAN deal until the Summit fruits are known.

This can’t happen because it drops oil prices and Saudi wants destabilized brink of war in the GULF or wars to assure oil prices rise to over 100 dollars a barrel – which moves the entire world into a sinking recession and economic contraction while a few make some bucks – but that fails. As the world contraction occurs against OPEC falling apart – which over market share – customers not wanting to bay bandit criminals higher price for their elite few to profit against 7 billion of humanity having to pay blackmail phony prices for energy – the cost of everything else.

OPEC and non OPEC producers will flood the market with oil to keep market share and price wars will create MARKET PRICE FOR OIL.

What we are seeing is the END OF OPEC.

OPEC is an illegal oil cartel of producers trying to maximize elite profits against economic fair market pricing for oil. OPEC controls a shrinking % of world supply and now lacks powers to long term versus short term spikes manipulate oil prices to stability at artificial price points.

Faced with economic stress in Saudi LAND from 50 dollar fair market price for oil – SAUDI fighting for survival of its Kingdom – at any cost must manipulate oil prices higher. It is working to do so on policy that like policy from 2014 is TOTALLY FAILED and only the final crash is waiting for the market blood bath of those holding long in oil – buying into spin and propaganda for profit making and failing to think the forward facts through completely.

Economically.

Fact – the world is drowning in oil.

Demand is going to fall – the rate of growth in demand which no one reports correctly IS FALLING and has BEEN FALLING FOR YEARS. Demand is in a backslide which never ends now.

Price can not be cartel manipulated in a supply drowning the world in oil. We are drowning in oil The Earth farts and shits oil and gas and old wells renew – the earth is making oil. More oil energy than we can ever use is being made by the earth energy factory. We are burning oil and coal ever more cleanly – getting more energy out of less than any time in history – a trend just unfolding today.

It is crazy to favor participate or give political capital to those few against the many who would manipulate the cost of everything inside the world’s fragile recovery – to record new highs – for the elite few greed against the many.

Risk. Will Saudi have a Puppy King assignation or COUP? Will the Kingdom fall to a new form of government. Will the SAUDI present form of government – now in full out CIVIL WAR – while tribal factions the west has no clue about – recently arrested in 2018 – insulted – 100 billion stolen from them – move forward with salutes to the Puppy King who insulted them and took their wealth which unchecked is going on to this day?

Can all the PR in the world remove this inside civil war risk?

Bombs and missiles are falling in the Saudi Capitol in more frequent targeting. Saudi blames IRAN. But is it Iran? Or is it others who bought from IRAN reselling ? Saudi is funding wars against Iran that is fact. Why would Iran not defend itself? Who could fault them. Why again are we taking sides in a dispute spanning say 1000 years of time? Is this our fight to understand or take sides in. Why are we not friends with every single nation in the GULF removing ourselves from politics and remaining economic pure and simple?

When Saddam said – hey I’ll leave and you guys win – let me and my family depart – we would not let them and went to war. WHY? Weapons of Mass Destruction? Humbug. Who lied then?

So are we the people of this planet to be spun and make choices based on LIES.

The Iranian people are good people and they want full partnership with the world. They do not contrary to popular belief hate AMERICAN’s or the EU or any of us. They are wishing for full partnership.

Leaders are paranoid – and with good damn reasons.

So is the world marching forward to wars? Why? What is the real reason?

All of this is fact to help you think about todays’ political theater this way.

PUBLIC POLICY Is impossibly complex.

Leaders are fed good and bad information.

Leaders to the best of experience and competency charged to weight that information and to weight all sides and all perspectives to make POLICY that is secure and economically benefiting to the future of their nations alone and collectively with their partners.

The outcome is never right wrong or perfect.

There is no one answer.

Our advice. THINK FOR YOURSELF. Use the internet to get all the facts off shore and on shore to your nation. WE do that in our blog reporting. Global perspective always economic.

The Gulf is a mess begging to calm down into peace and prosperity That is in everyone’s best interest.

We do not see the present public MANIPULATIONS back and forth as of service to the people of the GULF the nations and the long term outcomes.

is Iran Evil? I don’t think they are.

Is Saudi evil. I don’t think they are.

Can both do better – I truly think they can and they should.

Will they?

We will see – right now it is a mess getting frothier and TRUMP has to part the Red Sea all over again – calm the waters – or bring on the storm clouds.

We’ll all know MAY 12th how our leaders land on public policy.

Berny Dohrmann  – THINKING OUT LOUD TODAY FOR YOU ALL