HALF THE YEAR IS PASSING – MAY 1st WEEKEND REPORT
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HALF THE YEAR Is passing you buy in May.
OIL & REAL ESTATE
As an investment banker economist we believe oil demand self serving projections are bought paid for and wrong. Why?
We believe a transformation in oil supply is taking place. Consolidation normal to this level of a cycle is missing. In fact diversification in supply from growing shale technologies moving from China and mature in USA is opening NEW PLAYERS into the role of significance. Old players acquire new oil lakes or they perish.
Demand suggested to peak in 2050 is we feel in fact peaking right now. By 2030 demand will have dropped by levels oil forecasting has no new model for. The kilowatt hours moving from BTU oil and related fuel generation is plunging across the world. The most significant % of rising energy outside oil as source is dramatically expanding as to % and the GAP is widening.
So massive new oil supply is flooding the markets.
Historic down bubble in growth demand and over all demand is presenting forward contraction against flooding supplies.
Cartel criminal price controls as crimes against 7 billion human’s for elite greed agenda’s is a historic passing as market rate pricing plunges oil from the last CARTEL INFLUENCE ( ever ) in 2018 to the 50’s to stay there.
Long bets on oil will crash and burn in wild fires.
Short and Super Shorts on oil will make vast lakes of profits.
Oil is transforming from cartel control to market rate control for the reasons set forth.
Leverage in oil will reflect these economics and calls on credit on the wrong side of the bet will accelerate energy price moderation world wide for decades. The end of the criminal elite pricing scheme is upon us all – creating FULL PARTNERSHIP for nations across the globe.
The GIANT OIL TRANSFORMATION is taking place. Those betting in yesterday will lose it all – those betting on the future will win in fact. Thats our opinion for the coming 18 month tug of war on price controls.
REAL ESTATE – THE MOTHER OF ALL ASSET CLASSES
Manufacturing shelter an work spaces for humans, is the back bone economic of nations outside food – food production movement and packaging to market. Automotive manufacturing is next. Education is a tie. Nothing happens until humans learn something.
Today in Australia to Asia record credit is driving record real estate. The price rising reflects massive leverage into constructions. Entire cities exist in China with no one living inside them. No one.
This SUPER BUBBLE can not end well.
When the economic climate of expansion, taking place in Asia through rising debt – first 80% of GNP – than 15 years ago 170% of GNP and today over 300% debt to GNP for ten solid years – again this leverage Super Debt Bubble can not end well.
As the climate from the debt rubber band super cycle reaches a break point and the expansion economies of Asia Rim move to contraction recessionary economics to rebalance accounts – the depth and scale of the REAL ESTATE CRASHES certain to hard land in Asia are the tip of the economic ICE BERG. Why is that?
Well WHY is that the SUPER CRASH IN ASIA REAL ESTATE will land when owners require to refinance. The upside down trillions in lost property value — against negative carry cost in higher interest rate to finance or refinance – drive the spiral down down down the Rabbit Hole Alice.
DOWN DOWN DOWN….will this fall never ever end Alice wondered?
The SUPER CRASH in forward Asia Markets will be caused by a sudden CRASH in Real Estate. The REAL ESTATE hard landing moderating decades of abuse in these accounts economically, will push record BANK DEFAULTS INTO A CASCADE that will turn into a run on capital out of ASIA and their banks. The Banks will likely fail and go bankrupt. The state will be unable to save them. The total cost will exceed 100 trillion dollars US and take 30 years to recover from without war – faster with war.
Is there a way to get out of this tunnel without hitting a train?
Yes. With SUPER BONDS and a core shift in Asia monetary policy. Without both however there are zero options.
As no one is working on the SUPER BOND solution and policy change to integration new modeling – the hard landing is coming and the end does not turn out well for any of us world wide.
Credit abuse to drive economics must rebalance over time.
Today the digital markets SUPER CRASH economic rebalancing at speeds no one has experienced before.
It is our opinion that with the best intentions and no on truly to blame the forward risk to the world order – is CHINA – experiencing a hard landing and a SUPER CRASH triggering a first bankruptcy of nation in the digital casino capitalism. The ripple will effect us all to our tap root in economics.
Accounts must rebalance.
There are solutions to all this pain …but no one is exploring those solutions – YET.
For nations seeking SUPER BOND Options as a way forward contact Hughs and Hubbard leading sovereign bond to market law firm in DC and chat with senior partner Roel Campos about the SUPER BOND Option for your nation.
Or wait for the other shoe to drop. Its a size 11 Texas size cow boy boot with dust flowing up like an economic hydrogen explosion.
Berny Dohrmann – May 1st – SPRING FORWARD FINANCIALLY $
THE SPRING CORRECTION – WE NAILED IT
This January my tribe of investment bankers thought I had lost my data and my mind. I continued to blog report data to support a Spring 2018 serious correction. January the market ran up more in one month than it runs up in a full year. Is that frothy enough?
We held fast citing error in central bank tightening – too soon too fast – and chart data. While the First Quarter is producing momentum earnings – the financial storm clouds had already taken out the SUNSHINE.
Guidance from those reporting all those earnings continued to note that the first quarter was the 2018 bell weather and forward earnings would be SOFT. The best is behind us now.
The expansion sinking to almost recession grade now – may take us to August when we have an all time historic record TIME FRAME for a growth bubble.
Inside this growth bubble are super bubbles – super bubble in bank loan pools or structured asset pools – super bubbles in asset class’ like Technology where Apple is far too high priced coming out of crises and a failed super cycle launch – losing its reputation in a number of critical brand areas. Brand building takes years. Brand slaughter takes one hour live TIM and you sure did that. Google Face Book and the rest facing regulatory head winds globally and shrinking margins ( if any one tore apart first quarter earnings ) such that forward value needs to moderate from peak – which is being done today.
Speculators will use STOCK BUY BACKS which at today’s ratio was a crime under pre 1999 laws – as manipulating stock price and value by stock buy back sucking up capital that could otherwise be invested for innovation and long term market growth. Capital invests in stock buy backs is a temporary stock price manipulation. Today the market is underwritten by stock ratio – to the all time peak earnings to share price ratio in recorded human history – exceeding all past abuse. Stock buy back in record 100’s of billions is why. Capital used to manipulate price and abuse the system itself at core. Until a RE-REGULATORY RE – THINK unfolds the digital casino capitalism of the world today is without a cop to police greed and abuse of the system price points. Allowing a Wells Fargo or so many others to FIX LIBOR – to commit garden variety fraud and earn 100 billion on those frauds and then pay parking meter money fines – and the criminals who brought you all that crime – they enjoy warm meals and their clubs – and no one goes to jail.
Both are late.
Capitalism can always afford survival.
Today Home Land Security begins with protecting the Financial system of the United States. Without a major congressional upgrade of the SEC and Commodities trading institutions – which should be combined into one SEC SUPER AGENCIES with a budget many times its present budget – to digitally police a digital world today – the system is at RISK. We are all at risk.
The Correction – driven by the largest drop this spring in EU confidence – in investing – in downward GNP adjustments – in Germany leader in EU taking hits and revising GNP down – Asia seeing head winds that are blocking its ability to expand and grow moving forward in 2018 – the profit taking – re-balancing portfolio’s on slightest news all driven BY AI SOFTWARE in the Spring not by Human perspective and judgement – is sinking markets.
Today some of the top TECH Stocks had the big boards suspend trading. In the past that would open Thursday to Friday with a total crash full on flash trade short everything ….
We see the correction – advancing until there is a new bottom floor on value.
Then as earnings entrench – and new normal is understood this summer – and especially if oil crashes back to 50 dollars – the world expansion should move into 2020 with 30,000 DOW.
However if Central banks continue to error and misevaluate as they did last year and this year – and raise interest rates to fast too frequently and by too much- versus patient graduation over a decade minimum and oil stays t 75.00 or above – the double cost to DEBT REFINANCING for every sovereign nation and their companies – and the higher cost of everything for energy and oil products – will create a head wind that derails the FRAGILE global recovery.
A condition then exist for SUPER CRASH say in 2020 when we know the outcome of these forward policies and the mid year election.
SUPER CRASH is a risk to monitor against
- Central bank aggressive and error ridden policy to normalize far to fast against economic demons that no longer are factors at all. Soaring interest creates soaring debt default cascading into the forward markets .
- Oil price manipulated by a few against the many – cartel gangs – for their greed – jacking up the cost of everything for no reason at all. Soaring oil and interest rates push the world into recession and economic contraction. Circulation of capital slows to a trickle.
- Geo Political triggers – the mid year election – can by itself married to 1 and 2 push the world into SUPER CRASH and Liquidity Evaporation Day. No nation comes out of LED without re-balancing economic accounts and war.
Why risk it?
Coordinated policy between nations is missing.
Trust was breached by markets moving from paper to digital so fast regulatory frame works could not keep up. Criminal manipulations created billions for a few in 2007 and then SUPER CRASH globally almost sunk the entire system completely. IT was close far closer than any of you truly realize. Read Secretary PAULSON’s BOOK and you’ll learn just how close – the day he cried and prayed in a parking garage.
That tearful day is a CAKE WALK against the speculation ramp up within financial institutions, the consolidate of wealth circulation, and the digital landscape of all markets and asset classes in 2018 versus 2007.
The top don’t see it coming. Why?
They believe their smarty pants internally have invented risk-less risk. A theory of trading ranges digitally. That theory is untested new and we submit flawed code. Buggy virus code. If you believe your buggy code is flawless though – you run it. Till it crashes.
Only this time it crashes all world economic institutions beyond any recovery – a real WORLD WIDE DEPRESSION.
We see that risk.
In audiences I where I survey thousands upon thousands of business owner CEO’s annually – I ask by a show of hands:
- Who believes we did not learn anything from 2007 and they are still doing the same stuff?
- Who believes the markets have gone digital and the regulatory laws are all designed for paper transactions?
- Who believes laws are local and trades fall outside local and exist in the geo politics of the off shore cloud itself?
- Who believes we are seeing unchecked risk rise for a super crash and system collapse?
- Who believe the time frame is five years or less – probably two or less unless things change?
Now when 70% to 80% of hands are raised in affirmation to all five questions – from Main to Seattle from San Diego to Miami from Jamacia to the UK from India to Being – I conclude the CEO small business owners GOT THIS COLD TURKEY.
The smarty pants running everything are deluded as there were in 1907 the the great depression that brought us World War I due to Fed failed policy – and again in 1929 when the Fed free money created the largest speculation bubble in economic history and brought us WORLD WAR II. Again in 2007 when the Fed supported its bank and investment bank shareholder ( thats right the FED is owned as private stock firm by the folks they are suppose to regulate – an insane policy itself ) – THAT the theory was in 2007 Real Estate could never go down really – no models existed for it going downward where in criminal banker models – and then real estate CRASHED.
Tax payers of nations then bailed out with a trillion in grants the inside central bank shareholders so banks would not go bankrupt – as they were all bankrupt in 2008. The Fed bought the worst crap and the worst bets they just gave grants to them.
If you read my blog on this – the Senate asked the FED who got 11 trillion of tax payer money. The Fed Chairman reported – 1000’s of members banks of the Fed. The Senate Chairman asked – will you tell this oversight committee by list who got the money and how much each of your member banks consumed of tax payer funding bail outs? The Fed Chairman said – NO SIR.
The Fed exists outside control accounting veto of oversight. Oversight is a fiction a fraud.
American’s are fed education to keep the truth and facts away from them. Economic education is far from transparent current or of standard and quality to involve voters in power to reform and upgrade.
Ignorance keeps the average income at below 60,000 in America and assures THE CITIZENS OF THE WORLD are wage slaves and just over broke JOB in their j.o.b’s – just over broke. One pay check away from disaster.
Can a modernized system of COOPERATIVE ECONOMICS – paying inflation adjusted incomes to every man and woman separately of today’s value of 65,000 each – so that – folks could work and earn lots more – or explore education arts and pursuits and circulate money creating an economic rebirth of full partnership for all?
Can education upgrade to assure the world celebrates diversity as first thinking art – and by culture dispels any punishment for human diversity. Hate expressions become social outrages – a form of insanity?
The world wakes up and is sane all of a sudden.
The problem is the world is asleep – fully competitive – and practicing insanity from K – 12 to Higher Education. We culture glue insanity.
Today insane smarty pants brains believe casino capitalism is safe, is risk-less risk – and is taking up to 50 to 1 leverage never known before to leverage the market price via manipulation in speculations. The speculation market is now the base of the pyramid many many times the point now upside down of economic stake holders – buying real assets and holding real assets. This wholly upside down pyramid smarty pants build and continue to consolidate base by 100’s of trillions in 10,000 super money pools – looks like 1907 and 1929 only far far worse in system abuse globally.
In past abuse of systems the inter-link between capital money pools was far more isolated. Today the risk link is shared and if China for example hard lands into debt default cascading – DDC – the entire system can go bankrupt.
The IMF has warned about this risk 15 times in 24 months.
The smarty pants running all the money think that is old foggies who have zero currency into the evolving AI markets.
Today the world in competition and distrust and negotiation – versus cooperation trust and collaborations – is unfolding a multi trillion dollar global AI WAR. President Putin correctly stated that THE NATION THAT CONTROLS AI will control the world.
Russia – just alerted our team they have stolen a current cruise missile and are using our technology to hammer us back now.
Today we ramp into SUPER SONCI WARS. In the past 70 years destruction was assured by counter strikes by super powers. It would take several hours.
Today with modern AI consider real eelf aware self learning AI that can steal all data base information because it simply smart enough to do that. It accelerates the super sonic war so strikes can and will in the evolving model:
- Strike total devastation first in 30 minutes then in three minutes.
- Somewhere in the three minute strike if AI can with new sensors in 3 minutes take out all enemy counter strike capacity – then that AI wins and rules the world.
Which is why we have lobbied for MARS. Mutually Assured RECONSTRUCTION that assures a 30 day rebuild of nation from any and all such strikes. MADD IS OBSOLETE moving forward without MARS.
But the smarty pants have the buggy software – THATS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IT – marching through their brain computer.
The world order post WORLD WAR II is now in SUPER CHANGE.
No one can predict who the leaders on the other side of SUPER CHANGE are going to be.
In a global reframe into COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM we sanely collaborate to get to the future together – no nation left behind. SANITY.
Without a Global Reframe it is every nation for itself – marching toward unknown risks – and the old system may collapse and require a new system on the other side of war – versus doing it all peace fully.
Now consider the likely short term:
- The Correction bottoms in the Spring.
- The summer claws back values.
- The 18 month rise up soars with one election outcome crashes with another.
- The RISK of SUPER CRASH to follow that elevates or moderates depending on Central Bank and election outcomes.
- Geo-gpolitics are a wild card like China Debt.
Mis-steps are so dangerous today.
Our advances in AI are ripped off by digital warfare and sovereign nations at digital war with the USA. The 2008 crash was a sovereign nation digital weapon fired at our markets. in case you did not know that and read that data the hour the attack began right here on this blog.
Could another economic weapon only worse be fired at the West Say all power and data disappears and no power comes back on. What happens ? If you think we are ready for that – think again. Smarty pants believe that can never happen.
We believe the Trojans are all planted waited for a digital firing switch.
We’ll see who is right.
Meanwhile we think what WILL happen is:
- Growing cooperation between nations.
- Correction of this Spring ends at a new bottom.
- Claw back up is steady and on going.
- With election and infrastructure legislation the boom can go on for years.
- Without Both – a serious recession in late 2019/2020 early – with a volatility roller coaster in between.
So thats the view and the date to consider carefully.
We have suggested exploring getting OUT of the DIGITAL CASINO at the next peak high – and move everything into diversified insurance investing. Explore that option with your licensed professionals and shop shop shop – as plans vary wildly on quality and returns. Get your best proposal and act.
Or ….join the majority who report…..why they told us and told us.
Berny Dohrmann – TELLING YOU ALL OVER AGAIN
PS: The smarty pants on Wallstreet and in lobbies are smart to be sure they are just plain consistently WRONG and the cost is what they never pay for…..we all pay for that error…..
CHINA THE WORLDS WILD CARD !!!
What could go wrong?
Well let me tell you what has already gone wrong.
China is a commuist economy. That means transparency as known in western market space does not exist- at all. Is Chinese currency worthless. That is the ultimate end game question.
Today we have a ten year recovery from the worst melt down and recession since 1929. The recovery is FRAGILE and not strong yet.
China had to devaluate its currency to stay Ihe game at all.
To sustain order and growth the two communist respected agenda’s they infused untold money following the crash into infrastructure. The problem is the Chinese system is opaque and outside customs of tradition and regulations.
So the loans developed from thousands of banks and tens of thousands of shadow bank lenders. Today 500,00 billion is known to be bad loans not repaying their principle and interest. This number however is a tip of an ice berg in China financial sectors.
The 20 TRILLION DOLLAR shadow banking industry is murky to say the least. In recent years the banks have packaged their crap loans and sold those as good performing real assets to shadow bank syndicates and banks around the world own those note packages today.
The problem – which I keep writing about related to the DEBT BOMB is liquidity. If the musical chairs of passion these bad loan packages around comes home to roast – meaning economics always rebalances from system abuse – banks will have to write off the bad loans.
Which many experts believe is untold TRILLIONS of Dollars. This sum is not manageable by communist central bank planners educated at Cambridge and Harvard. It has gotten away from the central planners.
Today the growth in CHINA is 300% borrowing over what they ear in GNP output. A year for ten years piling up.
The bad loans to build out infrastructure are not being repaid. The IMF has warned about all this 15 times in 24 months – which we report right here on this blog.
The musical chair game has stalled any rebalancing. The tipping point economically is a whisper away now.
A TRADE WAR is the tipping point and AI software knows that. IT is that smart – say – smarter than I am with more data than I have.
You GOT TO KNOW WHEN TO HOLD THEM is a blog I wrote on this topic – did you scroll and read it.
So here is Trump at the poker table. He sells 130 billion to China each year.
China and XI at the poker table sell to the USA over 500 billion each year. That is 20% of the entire Chinese economic system by itself. Just that. And we influence another 30% among our allies.
Trump has a full house at the poker table – five to one we buy from China more than they buy from us.
Who negotiates from strength of the DEAL? Really ?
Five to one.
XI gets this.
The USA in a real trade war sinks China. China goes bankrupt in.a cascade of debt defaulting and a market roar out of CHINA with trillions in capital leaving CHINA. A trillion has already left folks. The RUN on China is part of today’s market space.
Liquidity in China is drying up even before the USA pushes its chips onto the table ( all of them if needed ) and says WE CALL.
You got to know when to FOLD THEM.
FULL HOUSE ( 5 to 1 ) over say XI and communist holding two two’s. Trade WAR?
China can’t pay its garbage removal – water clean up – or basic services. The military crashes into the dust in China Trade Wars.
No one wants this for the Chinese People. Or the World overall.
No one. Especially Trump who understands all this and respects XI trying to lead his nation out of the mind field of debt and the 10,000’s of institutions that drive debt to support the economy over all.
All that is required is FAIR TRADE. A reciprocity trade where trarriff’s are opened versus closed to each side. China will prosper in FREE OPEN TRADE not decline. America trade accounts will balance and re-balance slowly over time and the markets will go WILD. Which is what we expect.
But in POKER folks your tells give you away.
The facts and who holds what are known.
USA Full house.
China two two’s.
Trump and XI have audiences all around the table to please. Politics versus economics while the tipping point is a whisper into the future. Any mis fire and the tipping point is RIGHT NOW.
Trump has to bet.
XI has to match.
Trump has to keep those chips moving to the center of the table.
Xi has to match.
Trump has to be careful when to CALL.
When he calls ( trade war ) China falls. The Tipping point.
If XI can fold into long term free trade and fair trade the outcome is mutual prosperity for a new cooperation between all players.
XI has powerful forces that want to “go against AMERICA” now feeling ( falsely ) they have capacity economically they in fact lack.
The USA has powerful forces on TRUMP suggesting the time to PUNISH CHINA is now – which is actually a huge recession and market risk for the USA as we lack capacity to do that step without consequences that are horrific for the world buying all those bad debts – wipe out could span the globe as the IMF warns. The entire system is at risk here – says the IMF in 2018. The entire system.
On miscalculation at that poker table.
Not in the press is all the moves each sides is telegraphing in private to the other to moderate through the POWERFUL FORCES who lack all the information. Powerful on both sides non the less.
The IMF warned this week the critical card in the game is TRUST. If TRUST which XI and TRUMP have together as leaders – can be built upon to slowly impact the POWERFUL FORCES influencing the game daily – outcomes could be MAGIC.
If not – the tipping point is a whisper away. In all outcomes the USA wins but not well and not as if we have magic and a miracle from the poker game.
5 to 1.
We hold ALL the CARDS.
That is a fact.
Now the issues is – can China save herself?
New policies are required.
As there are no alternative options we have to wait.
Imbalanced trading – 5 to 1 – is not sustainable economics for the USA. WE are at the end of economic subsidy to China. We have to now have economic parity to continue. SO rich and positive for China moving forward.
In politics one must draw on the 11th commandment ….
…never assume leaders will do what is their own best interest – say see Hitler or Stalin or others history has marked for GPS today…..
IT all boils down to Kenny Rogers in America folks – regardless of your position over money today….
….you got to know when to hold them and you’ve got to KNOW when to fold them…….
Timing is everything in the art of the DEAL’s today.
Iran is getting a boast and Saudi is getting a kick in the knee’s today. Another set of cards here.
Folks – we have time. But time and the tipping point are coming to a point in tomorrow no one would wish for. We are that close.
Berny Dohrmann – THAT IS WHAT IS GOING ON OUT “THERE”
EARNINGS SOAR – STOCKS DO NOT – WHY?
So what is up.
Earnings this year are up 18%.
Many firms way ahead of expert estimates.
Average earnings up 11% best ever since 2008 – already.
Stocks up 1%.
Investors don’t care.
What is de-coupled today?
What is new?
Something is new?
No chart no history shows this model. None.
So what do we KNOW for SURE?
- The world market movements are not AI software controlled by trillions – small investors not in those pools and most are already – are no influence on market prices.
- Earnings are pulling the sling shot back. RECORD 2018 earnings after profit taking and portfolio rebalancing by AI itself – are massively taking profits.
- AI is “worried” about unknowns of TRADE WAR POLICY.
- AI is aware the central banks are tightening monetary policy with soaring interest impacting BOND YIELD and AI is rebalancing massively from equities to bonds – in what is today after ten years the GREAT RE-BALANCING – never experienced before.
- Capital accounts remain so CASH HEAVY a tidal wave of investing in the Bottom of this SPRING CORRECTION we correctly predicted over a three year time frame into January. Accurate to a fault against all other forecasting.
We see Apple down 64 billion in worth in ten days.
Our Blog tells you to buy in the Apple Dip ( which is far from over yet until the news of earnings is reported and then the run on the news bottoms this cycle on Apple ). Buy on that dip – check with your licensed expert on that item. Always with their input never mine. Just explore opportunities to buy low and sell high. If you ask do I take my own advice – yep bought Apple in the dip myself. My blog tells you why this weekend. Your decision of course.
What else do we know. Central banks are rising interest into a debt world at record debt for nations and corporations. The higher interest for many over debt burdened is not sustainable at the time to refinance those trillions in loans. Decade default cascade is a factor AI software is “considering” as a risk to equity investing.
If the central banks – and it is a big if – as their failed policy is 100 year historic and a 100% track record – they not once get it right. They error and that causes a wave that sinks all ships. Today IF the central banks define NEW POLICY to normalize market interest rates over twenty years slower and more gradually than any time in history – we can EARN OUR WAY as a global economic community out of this mess – maybe – and if they keep the normalization over five years – too quick – too much – far too rapidly – that wave as it is now – will sink economic growth.
Already against record earnings down grading in GNP is taking place by 1/3 to 50% across nations. This downgrading is a CONSEQUENCE of Central Bank rush to normalize too fast too soon within failed central bank economic policy.
Central banks seek to fight global inflation. That is a good thing.
However sustained multi quarters of real inflation can accommodate such inflation policy slowly and in consequence to real inflation.
Today we have only OIL in a phony baloney price path – manipulated by elite cartels – that is not sustainable. Oil will crash to the 50’s and zero inflation will result – in fact DE-FLATION the central bank largest HORROR will unfold. Central Banks need policy to accommodate Oil the cost of everything else is temporarily in a speculation bubble that will soon crash and normalize. Central bank policy removing oil from inflation can move much more moderately and deliberately with world fragile recovery in mind.
Today the national security of the entire world is largely economic. Central banks acting together as they do can better coordinate policy. Policy moving forward must be job # 1 – keeping the world economic system safe. Job # 2 is inflation based on multi quarter sustained real inflation rising not blips and graph spikes that are aberrations and mean noting to real Global inflation. Balance in policy is required with new modeling and economic global adjusting. The old antique models are creating today’s pain – in our opinion – needlessly.
The result of BAD and FAILED central bank policy that requires a re-frame by very smart folks who see the issues clearly.
Much more important is the urgent need for a G 100 Economic Constitutional Conference for the entire world – to over three years forge a world TREATY nations ratify for FAIR TRADE AND TAX POLICY and ZERO TOLERANCE for unwanted system speculations of capital flows. This – REGULATORY – RE-THINK in an AI digital age where capital flows are software imbalanced is prudent. It requires a cooperation reset back to TRUST and SYSTEMS assuring trust is warranted. Without a global REGULATORY RE-THINK the system risks are soaring toward a later SUPER CRASH.
But not yet and not now without geopolitical upsets we can’t see yet. Though they are also possible.
We think the Spring Correction is not over as we reported in our blog this week. You will know when it is over. Buy in that dip if your in to markets as many are.
We think it will roar back and stay roaring when it does.
Be looking for that roar.
Today is an anomaly in the Force.
A consequence of digital market transitioning – and central bank policy fire wall to growth creating unnecessary uncertainty to recovery world wide.
Perhaps they’ll read my blog?
This buds for YOU.
BERNY DOHRMANN – ON WHAT “IS” GOING ON OUT THERE
SPRING CORRECTION – THEN UP UP & AWAY?
Soring Correction – you know the one we told you about precisely to the date line for three solid years. Right again.
Is it over.
No one knows that. Despite record earnings stocks are unlink-ing from everything traditional. When bonds hit higher than 3% now days and weeks away as yield curve the stocks will go down. Bonds will go up. Then stock will de-link from bonds entirely and operate in the new digital casino un-linked from anything but software parameters.
The market today is artificial. No longer moderated by state regulations as the laws are all LOCAL and the trades folks are now in the CLOUD – look ma no regulations apply to US.
10,000 super money pools larger than central bank influences on markets, now control the entire market of price within their software evolving AI – the software wars – taking place across the planet seeking to reduce risk and maximize profit. The problem is the “given”s are a moving target of rule based software – that is much like AI gambling on a Vegas Crap table. Once the proper spin and throw is AI calculated the robot throws but still where she lands no one not even AI can know. Too many unknown factors of air, humidity, crap table resistance, view observation interaction to time and space – and more. Variables the software does not know and was not engineered to calculate.
Now in the larger globally fully dynamic REAL TIME digital market space the AI is taking economics to where no man has traveled before. At VAM – velocity momentum and acceleration no market has ever known before.
Also consider the take over of the human controlled market trading to AI software ( automation trading ) is new – occurring from 2012 to 2018 – a span of five years. The take over – the hostile take over – of all trading price ranges and manipulations to all prices for all goods services commodities everything – is now entrenched into consolidating super money pools lacking diversity of past markets.
Why is this all important?
First as a former CHAIRMAN of a public global investment banking firm myself supported by.armies of stock brokers world wide – where we engineered the most advanced software of that time – we started these wars – and I know as an investment banker economist how the head waters of capital circulations commence and move out. The secret rule books.
There are less than 50 former Chairman CEO’s of significant size publicly trade global investment banking firms around the size of a Smith Barney. Those experts know capital state secrets that are not instructed in any post graduate school in economics in the world. It would require a library to off load it to books. Trust us seems trite but sharing the golden arrow head of the shaft of all the information to the bullseye is what this retired investment banker economist is doing for our readers.
WEALTH CONSOLIDATION CREATES UNIMAGINABLE RISKS TO SYSTEM CIRCULATION ( LIQUIDITY ) AS THE BASE FOR TRADING DIVERSITY IS COMPLETELY AUTOMATED INSIDE CONSTRICTED DEPTH OF MARKET. NO ONE SEES NOR HAS MODELS FOR THE CONSTRICTED LIQUIDITY POTENTIAL. FACTOR IN FANTASTIC CORPORATE AND STATE DEBT LEVELS ( AND CONSUMER RECORD DEBT LEVELS ) WHERE DIGITAL CASINO CAPITALISM IS FUELED BY REGULATORY ABSTINENCE – DEBT INVESTING NEVER SEEN IN TEN THOUSAND YEARS OF ECONOMIC HISTORY – WITHIN WILD SPECULATION FOR PROFITS AT ANY COST BY !0,000 RAPIDLY MERGING SUPER MONEY POOLS CONTROLLING ALL TRADING AND PRICE RANGES BY SOFTWARE DESGIN – A FIRST – IN MODERN MARKET HISTORY – THE FOUNDATION IS DEBT OR QUICK SAND – AND THIS NEW MODEL CAN NOT END WELL……..
Today driven by fantastic speculation profit making and manipulations that were just in 1999 crimes globally, the 10,000 money pools focus on new AI. The AI of today is not self aware. The AI is self learning based on parameters as brilliant as the program team can think up. But in the digital casino and playing on the digital crap table ( global markets ) no one can program in all the parameters. The unseen unintended consequence of programed investing can exceed program parameters as it did in 2007.
Two years ago billions in ICO offerings were not on the drawing board. Now Super Money pools are buying them up. Billions into pot investing. New markets suck capital from real economics into side bars such as coin speculations. No one can predict which Ponzi scheme will shock the global market into SUPER CRASH – but everyone knows that shock will come – it is when not IF.
Also there is digital warfare weapons. These weapons are state sponsored. Say a state with unlimited sovereign wealth funds – leverages 50 to 1 – and shorts say all our financial institutions. Driving prices down to the floor with illegal massive short selling as the driver. Then the short sellers profiting to a trillion short base line industries like GE irrespective of performance. The AI software which is not intelligent – but evolving self learning code within parameters – new parameters every quarter with updates in the 10,000 money pool software wars with trillions invested in managing all the money of the world – trigger to the state warfare short selling. The entire system cascades and flash trade cascade.
Triggers can exceed software parameters. Human’s trading would know how to BALANCE RAW INFORMATION. Software lacks “awareness” or experience for such balancing. The software protects profits and firewall’s loss at any cost. When all software AI is “triggered” to sell – there is no buy orders to off set the selling. The LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION DAY has arrived in minutes versus weeks and months in old paper systems. In a single day the end of our financial system is a RISK TODAY as there are no longer regulatory controls and safety nets – as planners in 1933 never expected a digital market to exist controlled by AI non humans as it is in 2018.
The spiral of VAM – the VELOCITY THE ACCELERATIONS THE MOMENTUMS of the spiral to consolidate super money pools from 10,0900 to 5000 – whoever owns the better AI software will be the buyer the lower performing software will be the seller.
As the upside down pyramid point – consolidates the stability of the upside down economic modeling – is inherently unstable at its pointy base – upside down – and the pyramid wobbles on the quick sand of DEBT that is its foundation for capital levered into the market from the 5000 money pools.
At this point the RISK to system failure utterly rises to when not if.
We are rapidly approaching WHEN NOT IF.
This blog has provided a template for how to fix this flaw in core economics to nation. We know of no other fix proposed anywhere else in the world that is based on sound economic modeling as a way forward.
Perhaps one adopter nation will engage our firm to consult into a consortium of nations to effect the solution and fix.
If not the GOOFY RIDE at DISNEY LAND with arms in the air as we all scream the GOOFY cry at the top of our widdle voices children – YAAAAA WHOOOO – WHOOOOOO – WHOOOIE….all the way down into the ground 12 feet deep and buried the old system you once knew and enjoyed – as it will be dead and gone.
But that is not today boys and girls.
Today we have the final Spring Correction process. Then the ride back up through the Summer into mid year election. Then if the democrats win and impeachment unfolds a SUPER CRASH and enormous correction we won’t get out of for decades. Or if republicans win a 30,000 DOW and a possible 50,000 DOW.
In time frame if that happens – with four more years of Trump – you will see the GREAT AWAKENING in our opinion – AI will become self aware. The most conscious software will take over all market making and trading in a single quarter. The 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS will be in effect one money pool with self aware AI controlling everything. This Software may many times greater than human intelligence – off set human risks in old model software. We have to wait and see if real AI ushers in the final stability to cooperative capitalism with NO NATON LEFT BEHIND – sanity which AI would be versus insanity which is what humans ARE in fact.
Sanity is celebrating all human diversity.
Insanity is punishing human diversity in any form.
System insanity is competitive without integrity.
System sanity is cooperative which is rule based integrity – sane.
Why do we teach competitive thought – the first expression of human insanity is good wholesome and to be continued.
Why not teach competitive thought is insane – to be identified isolated and removed from human culture?
Why do we not teach cooperation is a 10x power over the weaker force of competition to get anything complete or done – sanity versus insanity?
if we guard and protect insanity are we good?
Are we flawed?
Can we fix ourselves?
Do we even want to fix ourselves?
Interested? In this prime first priority for human thought?
Read REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION and upgrade your home space and work space – to switched on turned on spaces in thirty days or less and spread the book as a gift to others you just cherish. The way forward is removal of the virus of the mind – that holds you back. If you don’t know you have a virus you can never remove any virus. First you must know your brain is infected and it is not your fault. Second you must become aware of the virus infecting your brain. Third you must remove that virus. It is not hard. It is just new.
It is called becoming – awake .
I believe the AI markets will consolidate at a rapid pace from now to 2020. Risk will explode as the consolidation of AI market manipulators accelerates. The markets controlled by ever smarter AI will rise up from the Spring Correction into 30,000 and even 50,000 DOW with record pacing volatility along that journey.
A debt explosion will cascade debt defaulting into highly leveraged and now consolidated only 5000 Super Money pools and LED DAY or Liquidity Evaporation Day will arrive. Daily markets will plunge to 6400 DOW – while no one can liquidate or get out all. More world wealth will be lost as the system implodes than in the entire history of mankind.
Rebuilding will consume generations and require world wars to rebalance population demographic infrastructure and economics globally. All preventable but if not fixed soon – inevitable.
So the ALMANAC – get advice from three licensed brokers and invest at your own risk level. Safest bet in my opinion is diversified insurance investing moving forward. Buy low sell high. Monitor debt and risk when investing. You can lose on LED and margin call day – more than everything. MORE THAN EVERYTHING study that risk carefully. Get three licensed broker opinions and chose the safe bet – the safer bet.
Good Luck and good investing.
When in 2020 they look back at the GOOD TIMES and ask did you take action in 2018 – we hope you say – you bet I did – you just bet I did.
Berny Dohrmann – I BET YOU WILL TODAY – YOU KNOW THE WAY