PUNDITS ARE IDIOTS AND SO ARE YOU IF YOU LISTEN TO THEM
Against all the Pundit input, we told you:
- Oil would go down when they said it would only go up – and why.
- We told you the dollar would go up regardless how experts suggested it would go down
- We told you the markets would go down despite how the experts told you no way they would be 30,000 DOW by now.
As my blog readers from the 1980’s still clicking know – the accuracy of the work provided here – has helped those who take action to preserve their nest eggs a bit better informed which is the only outcome of this work. A public service to you our world wide readers.
For others of our readers – and we so appreciate your sharing this blog with your email lists – to make a favorite or subscribe which is always confidential and fully free and helps our counts to the world markets – thank you – we know that you just wish to KNOW what is REALLY going on OUT THERE as you read the news daily which you also know is so bought and paid for these days.
In the end I am a retired investment banker economist – educator and author stating an opinion you can agree or not agree with. I have no ax to grind with anyone. My work here is data and my own chart conclusions of my own global team based research and my teams input and no one else just my opinion – as final answer – and although global in perspective as we do serve clients world wide at CEO SPACE and we are the # 1 ranked business acceleration conference by third party press in 2018 – still it is just my opinion – the buck stops with me. Use the input with other expert and licensed input traditional to your future taking any action and never rely on one source for anything – always a good rule. Always my recommendation.
ECONOMICS TO CONSIDER: and my opinion as set forth here – hope it makes sense to you today and this weekend Feb 8th:
- The markets have changed at fundamental core and will not go backwards. The money supply was 10 x in 2010 and free money which continued down to 5X where it is today as supply of money tightens. The lake of money supply is being reduced by central bankers and is competitive in price today as cost of money in a reduction of lake shore line – rises – money cost will be rising into the 2020’s for a long while.
- Free money to preserve the system globally is over. That age has ended – get used to that folks. It is not coming back.
- The USA – Asia – the EU require CAPITAL CIRCULATIONS to advance their forward economic GROWTH – made possible by free money. With reduction of the money lake cost to propel growth moving forward is gong to SOAR. Beating those rising money cost will now drive markets.
- The supply of money from Central banks is now in this growth cycle – contracting. What does this create? The money lake shore lines are moving from flood tide to money draught. Business can feel it everywhere . We are in the rip tide of changing tides of money tidal forces – free money to normalization in all markets.
- Contracting money supply creates a steady rise and competition to get capital circulations to propel growth of nations and the cost to business now rises continuously for years. The free money era which manipulated a phony equity and bond price is going to normalize and the valuations made possible by FREE MONEY are going to moderate as you see they are today.
- Meanwhile the US dollar as world reserve currency is supported by the US Treasury and Federal Central Bank. Neither are supporting the dollar. Why? Fair trade. As nations use unfair trade practices layered in to global markets over decades the USA has unsustainable NEGATIVE trade balances to our account – we buy in deficit spending more than we sell – as our sales are precluded by trade barriers of protected nations for decades. Now the USA is allowing the US dollar to fall in markets making US goods like OIL much cheaper in fact than say non USA suppliers. This creates a carrying cost to other nations ( economics 101 ) and an advantage in rebalancing US trade. By policy until trade agreements are reset from the post WORLD WAR II subsidy era – coming to a close in 2018.
- Ultimately the strength of the US dollar rises when interest rises – today the Dollar has been so strong for ten years paying zero interest to store money in US dollars. Now you can earn 3% to store money in US dollars – that is not a hedge that is smart. So super money pools are leaving equities in price rebalancing from free money periods – to firm and rising US dollar assets in bond markets – to rebalance portfolios. As this is trillions moving the rebalancing of super money portfolios – the process will take some time. The dollar is rising even while those supporting the dollar federally are hands free to the world markets. This speaks oceans of how strong the US dollar truly is globally.
- The US dollar in the end is backed by low debt – a 12% home loan compared to other nations against the US asset base – in its lowest appraisal of current market value as to USA core asset to debt – and soaring oil output where the USA will in 2019 move from a marginal oil producer in 2006 to the # 1 nation exporting oil ( sold in US dollars ) in the entire world – this year we move ahead of Saudi and the Gulf producers next year we move past Russia presently the # 1 oil producer where the USA is the # 1 oil asset producer on earth. Our oil elevation in out put has NO END TO IT and we will I predict marginalize the gulf and Russia and the US dollar will be stronger than GOLD itself. Finally the USA and its dollar is backed by food and food production as the one and only nation that can feed all its population – and the entire planet if called upon to do so and still plow waste into the sea. We pay farmers not to farm. Our financial dominance in all aspects of global finance, our inventions of Ai and the the future of innovation, our TWO HOUR WHOLE FOOD DELIVERY VIA PRIME FROM AMAZON are all innovations of IP that create DOLLAR CAPITAL SOARING VALUATION making the Chinese phony currency inside their SUPER BUBBLE about to SUPER CRASH actually – a play money worse than Monopoly money on any one’s game board. SHAME ON THE IMF for including a phony currency in their tribal basket – soon to be such an embarrassment to them as I predicted the day they bowed to politics versus economics with Communist China’s failed economic system phony as a two dollar bill. No the USA DOLLAR will remain the world reserve currency for all the trust and confidence and asset backing of the world. Did I mention our forward budget deal and the US MILITARY as a global asset behind the US dollar – oh yes and that – the strongest military known to humanity ever. Thank you VETS you make our dollar the back bone of the entire world now and for your grand children children children. The pundits said the US dollar would lose world reserve status before 2018. I said humbug do not listen to these “end of world” folks who have been saying stuff like this since the America Revolution. Folks – track record is something you can rely on – being right and why – just THINK for yourself. The pundits are trying to get you to buy their doom and gloom stuff that costs you fortunes. Just follow the real markets its all economics and YES YOU can advance your own economic literary right here – day to day. Your doing so right now.
- DISINTERMEDIATION – big word but old timers like me know it so well. The economics of vast capital circulations moving from zero interest asset positions into markets globally are now RE-BALANCING profits from frothy equity valuation to high rising fixed interest profits that competitive to over priced equity make profit taking sensible for AI today in February to the Summer. At zero interest the US dollar postures were still a safe haven the safest paying nothing whatsoever. Orderly bond markets unfolded for ten years at ZERO INTEREST PAY OUTS. Today at 3% interest moving to 5% interest the rising Tsunami of over priced equities which became too frothy even with such solid foundational earnings – as to historic chart multiples – now see PROFIT TAKING for balance sheets for 10,000 super money pools controlling over 65% of all core market activity within casino capitalism and a fully price manipulation activity – the dog not the tail in new software economics – which at only 35% and shrinking rapidly is grand mother investing and you – the 35% – such that these profits are not returning to BUY IN THE DIP for the first time in 10 years – because these profits are earning 3% or higher in US treasuries or tax free bonds. REBALANCING PROFITS by software calls to market.
- Finally the way the real market works the Treasury and the Federal reserve board approach their super money pool PARTNERS that draw funds at the FED WINDOW and ask them – by phone – up close and personal to the chairman CEO – to profit take and move peak profits and gains into treasury markets which are larger in 2018 and 2019 at auctions by 100% than 2017 – trillions more globally – because the profits moved to soaring fixed income no longer ZERO in returns to high yields with no risk at all in volatility -with the absolute warranty in the world today – and the move RIGHT NOW works to benefit us all with system stabilization – to all their other profits entirely. So they advance their software WEIGHTING NOW AND MOVING FORWARD IN TIME from the zero interest decade into interest yield bond fundings that have been languishing to a degree to the equity accounts which world wide is now rebalancing – from Sovereign Nation Fund investing to super money pool investing world wide. It is part of normalization – are you seeing how these phone calls are working and re-balancing accounts and profit taking? If your grand ma it is a scary time. The kids reporting the news and their pundits are idiots really in my opinion. Economics is simply understandable as to what IS really going on out there.
Hey why not share this blog with those on your email list you just know need to read this over the weekend of Feb 9th 2018 to make sense of the world we reside within.
This re-balancing this GREAT RE-BALANCING of core economics to markets removes the froth factor from equities, resets price earnings ratios to fundamentals – re-balances core economics globally – avoids a SUPER CRASH in markets by moderation of price in a more orderly correction of 15% to 25% over longer time lines – somewhat greater than a 10% correction your pundits are suggesting. Given the trillions returning into the USA for factory plant jobs and economics at home before the ENORMOUS REBUILDING infrastructure yet to come – given the multi year BUDGET the congress is now approving with higher debt ceiling for the USA defining a new age of stability in the USA – with soaring tax revenues from the forgoing – Trumps Teams theory of self funding tax reform appears to be already correct and working. Economically a blessing for democrats as well as republicans. Congress did what was RIGHT FOR AMERICA versus grid lock into what was WRONG FOR AMERICA and we should add value to the system stability factor.
As we have stated the wild new frontier in these core economic issues, is brand spanking always upgrading SUPER AI SOFTWARE from less than 10,000 super money pools controlling trillions in global circulation without a human consideration outside software pre set parameters – one chaps software making profits against another chaps software – in the AI race of our time. It is no longer the old slang advertising copy phrase MINDS OVER MONEY the apply to price manipulation ranges – it is CODE OVER MONEY. Its all software code today by % of trading VAM – velocity accelerations and momentums.
This means that CYCLES – volatility as we find our new level for the super money pool equity lake – is between 15% to 25% off the peaks. How long it will take in roaring up and roaring down days we’ll have to see. The new normal of 1700 spikes up or down is just that – new SOFTWARE NORMAL and means nothing really.
As the new equity lake level settles eventually to NEW NORMALS you will see we predict:
WE NOW PREDICT FROM THIS DATA AND OUR OPINION:
- A period of volatility replacing stability you saw in prior years.
- A consisted new equity lake level until the new adjusted floor in price earnings levels RE-BALANCES to fundamental economics.
- A period for new stable growth driven by fundamentals from that period forward.
- A return to more normal global markets of balance between equities and fixed income assets as market rates in fixed income normalized.
- A period of fantastic investing and growth in America which will spill over to every nation in the entire world as the engine of prosperity is up bubble for seven years
- A re-balancing of energy markets where OPEC is no longer a factor at all – and low cost alternative energy coming on line now – replaces oil demand at a level unseen since the 1800’s.
- A global prosperity and continued compression of ALIGNED NATIONS into ever more sane cooperative alliances versus competitive contests – diversity will be increasingly celebrated versus punished breeding a cooperative global capitalism to underwrite the unborn prosperity of generations to come.
- Human invention and discovery will restore the planetary cooperation from the current competition with environment as we move to our role of galactic discoveries.
- Longevity will be a consequence with floating cities that sustain environmentally conscious 100’s of billions of self aware humanity and AI as new specifies.
The AI revolution is our next AGE. Beyond the industrial revolution for human kind as new species assist us to grow and collaborate.
Digital Manners my new book picks up where futurist Alvin Tofler Author of FUTURE SHOCK and others – left off. Coming in 2019 as 2018 release SUPER CHANGE -HOW TO PROSPER IN THE AGE OF SUPER CHANGE – which engages this economic dynamic for your own personal prosperity at home space and work space. A global best seller we are confident and Digital Manners we suspect the hottest new Studio in Hollywood ramp up this year will turn into a feature film that will alter consciousness and nations more than AVITAR as we think differently and rise to our amazing fuller potentials together.
So this phase of movement from FREE MONEY over ten years to restore the global system is nor moderating to normalcy over time and the markets are within the GREAT REBALANCING.
My advice as an economist of some stature to the central bankers – is – go slow in your leadership execution – you have more time than you suspect – inflation is to your risk factor today – your risk factor is sustained deflation – ( see Japan 20 years later ) – and any mis-step that sustains deflationary pressures versus more generous time lines to assure re-inflation works and is sustained world wide is your major risk. Circulate this item at central bank economist decision making – for it alone is the 11th commandment today in 2018.
Mis-step by central bankers is more of a risk than a geo political event and their G 100 Central Bank conclaves can not be frequent enough to assure consensus in NO NATION LEFT BEHIND POLICIES globally because in the new AI trading world of CODE OVER MONEY and software controlling ranges of market prices in all asset classes – a mis-step by central bank planners is the ONE GREAT RISK in the unfolding new economics.
Berny Dohrmann – THIS IS WHAT IS GOING ON OUT “THERE” TODAY