THE REAL NEWS MOVING INTO MY BIRTHDAY MONTH
First the Trump Speech. It was a yawn. A garden variety Key Note any of the past five Presidents could have given. NO inflammation controversy or off script Trump. Good job. Presidential if in media he were not a cartoon character but hey he can’t help those expressions they are just humanity and HIM. Media charisma say compared to Jack Kennedy whom I also knew – say scale of 1 to 10 – Trump is 5 and Jack is 10. Nothing personal just media grading for impact of the image. Today the image is the message unfortunately.
So no rock the boat and the market goes up.
Global funds paired holdings of equities as they see the inflation handwriting on the walls. We expect a 15% correction or 4 to 5000 DOW Points – into the Spring – or we miss it. We think it is pretty likely to correct – for so many reasons – into the Spring by 15% a long long over due technical correction. Then sans a GEO POLITICAL event such as North Korea – we feel is very likely – the world should explode with on going growth.
China is a WILD CARD. Why? Their manufacturing and economic growth has been a down graph since 2000. A 25% Growth is falling into our adjusted from communist lie numbers growth of around 5.2% today. Manufacturing fell in China in January as the RUN ON CHINA we have reported in this blog is accelerating. Capital and resources are moving out of China. When Apple states they are investing 350 billion in the USA why do you think that is – and that is just one of China’s largest employer accounts. Why?
- Protection of forward IP China rips Apple off for
- Protection of supply lines to assure Apple continuity
- Protection from trade wars and tariff’s now likely
- Protection on cost – China quality is sinking and China cost is soaring – no sum game making things in China in forward markets.
Add the APPLE FACTOR into 1000 global firms PULLING OUT – running – out of China – and the China sunset has already economically started. Housing and their Super Debt and Real Estate SUPER BUBBLE we predict will hard land – with a SUPER CRASH in China. Fasten your seat belts as a factor to world markets that has no possibility to predict or forecast outcome to – it is new Frontier time with the most phony currency on earth. In fact China has one best bet – buy as many dollars in this DIP as it is possible to BUY as a national insurance policy for their leadership. And of course SUPER BONDS ( Scroll to read about that final option Chinese policy makers ).
The dollar is a feature of world confidence. The Presidents Speech resets dollar valuation. The Fed today and later this week tells the global market – hey here is how MUCH the USA will be borrowing in the bond markets. Meaning supply is increasing of the bonds, and will the demand buy them out. If yes dollar prices will rise. If not dollar prices will stagnate. The USA landscape profits from a lower dollar selling on fire sale everything American including OIL to nations benefiting from the dollar exchange rate. A high dollar makes USA goods more costly. A Low dollar within UNFAIR TRADE STRUCTURES WORLD WIDE – the trade deals of AMERICAN SURRENDER since World War II – are as President Trump suggests – over and done. As new fair trade deals come into play the US dollar as world reserve currency with no replacement even a remote possibility – will soar. In our opinion the fix is already taking place. Today America is on sale and the world is buying as never before.
Outside GEO POLITICAL upheavals we can not see the world is looking like a global economic expansion for half a decade -within a totally out of control speculator driven market – in which volatility spikes and frequency driven by digital software controlling the market with AI that is not AI will slowly destabilize. As it destabilizes over years of time due to lack of global regulatory frame work for digital non human market trading controlling trillions of trade velocities – the volatility trend will be outside any chart of prior experience in our opinion.
Perhaps the greatest danger of the casino capital market is the manipulated price structure creates an economic imbalance in world trading accounts, while developing SUPER BUBBLES in every single asset class with non excepted.
This condition is new economically and is a death spiral for the world system itself at core due entirely to a lack of GLOBAL REGULATORY FRAME WORK for the transformation of 100’s of years of a paper system – now moved in less than 10 years to a multi trillion dollar daily digital AI software to software system where price is manipulated with regulatory blocks and stops to the unbridled digital speculation taking place and driving price points.
When this SUPER BUBBLE ends we have SUPER CRASH and a LED EVENT the Liquidity Evaporation Day. ( See my prior blogs on these new economic language terms and realities ). LED ends the system as we know it. There is no global fix. No nation can repair the bankruptcy and insolvency chain. Nothing moves. Everyone runs out of everything. Manufacturing shutters and banks are all closed. Now what?
So the danger today includes
- Investor memory – the young decision makers today lack historic perspective of LED days of the past or experience with that modeling. They have no theory to expect or project those realities.
- False Reality – today the AI software and its agencies of decision makers believe once again they have advanced diskless risk investment. There is no such thing. They fail to protect their risk positions seeing no possibility for a Super Crash.
- Super Crash – seeing no possibility for Super Crash the decision makers creating the profits in the present market, less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY pools – believe – that they control risk and trade ranges. They do not believe there is a SUPER BUBBLE IN ALL ASSET CLASES and economically have been blinded by their own data which is actually incomplete and misleading entirely ( see Sub prime ).
- Super Bubble – in ALL ASSET CLASSES via software price manipulations world wide. There has never been a SUPER BUBBLE across all asset classes. As no decision maker in super money pools believes there is a SUPER BUBBLE ( they profited to blindness – same folks with Sub Prime and Real Estate they predicted could never not ever go down ) – they are exposed to the shock and awe of SUPER CRASH as their own SUPER BUBBLE BURST.
- LED EVENT – geopolitics and countless RISK exposures not accounted for in the present economic decision making elevates risk that liquidity will via software manipulation evaporate triggered by Debt Defaulting as the largest SUPER BUBBLE is national SUPER DEBT – as the ripple of interconnected counter party agreements ( as in 2008 mortgage meltdown downs across the world ) occurs – the LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION DAY so stealthy today – becomes so raw and exposed tomorrow.
We have time.
There is lots of profits to be made during the spiral up.
The risk and vocality will rise.
The BOND MARKET remains the wild card due to SUPER DEBT BUBBLES and the CASCADE effect of defaults in that market to equity with an LED event. What the trigger is none of us can see but we know economic accounts so distorted must rebalance globally.
There is a fix for all this but no decision maker is on board yet to undertake the fix and time is running shorter and shorter.
We shake our head and continue to track the data for you.
Hope this all makes sense at the MID week as the FED announces rising supply of USA Debt to market while the fed and others are cutting back on demand to buy that debt. We’ll see how all those smarty pants finds this is going to work out for them.
Berny Dohrmann – WHATS REALLY GOING ON OUT “THERE” TODAY
WHAT “IS” GOING ON OUT THERE? JAN IS WEARING OUT
What we told you so far:
- We told you the BOND Market would derail the equity market and why.
- We told you the dollar would soar and it is only just starting.
- We told you Apple would falter and carry the market lower because Apple is in crises and Tim is caught lying – shattering trust and slaughtering the Apple Brand in 2018
- We told you to beware of the SPRING as the market would correct
- We told you to buy low and sell high and to run out of this market space as manipulated casino capitalism where real world models no longer apply.
There are less than 2000 billionaires in the world today. These billionaires control more growth in wealth and wealth than most nations over 7 trillion and rising. The inequality of wealth distribution is a fatal economic system flaw. Why? Liquidity consolidations create systemic economics and risk nations are powerless to moderate in such a flawed and lop sided economic model.
We just keep on doing it and we never fix a system where law makers are largely bought and paid for ..as you know…and they will not vote against their money consolidators to reform the system. Warren Buffet stated years ago – the world is engaged in serious class warfare and unfortunately my class IS winning……
Terms of Endearment:
LEE – Liquidity Evaporation Event
LED – Liquidity Evaporation DAY
CASCADE – Digital switching from buy to sell globally in all markets all at once by AI – no humans involved.
SUPER CRASH – the markets no longer work to clear goods commodities and services as everyone is selling and there are zero buyers the markets seize up and trade suspends and stops. Banks may fail as accounts are rebalanced ( they go bankrupt ). World wide.
ILLUSSION: the public reality that systems in their nations are ahead of the issues – have controls in place to resolve all risk moderations to the system itself – when in fact the nations are powerless to influence or moderate market collapse today.
CASINO CAPITALISM: A market place in which technology for trading ( every asset class you can think of or name including all structured asset classes ) are manipulated by software, in ranges, that influence and control profit making as long as liquidity remains at VAL levels. When VAL falls off Casino Capitalism triggered by digital versus human trading aI and software can evaporate all liquidity as no prior market has ever seen before.
VAL – Velocity Accountable Liquidity – the minimum range threshold to assure sufficient buyers exist to accommodate sellers like the last two days of market transactions where when LSA arises the market freezes and the problem compounds ( via software ) in seconds.
LSA – Liquidity Standard Accounting – a system of accounting I invented to track global liquidity across asset classes – with normal ranges and STRESS RANGES Liquidity Stress Authority which is LSA1 and LSA 2 to alert our teams of pending LIQUIDITY stress which in todays digital markets can compound to DESTRUCTION in seconds not even minutes. If AI software switches to all selling globally and there are no buyers within LAR traditions the market fails.
LAR – Liquidity Acceptable RANGES. To our knowledge no one is tracking global market LIQUIDITY ACCEPTABLE RANGES to maintain orderly markets with software digital velocities of today. As the spiral of base to the market is now an upside down pyramid – with less than 10,000 super money pools controlling, manipulating price, and dictating all global market terms, software against software, the ANIMAL SPIRITS believe they have absolute risk removed and acceptable risk under management. In fact the problem is now far worse than the Great Depression of 1929 and we suspect will surprise than stun the powers to be when SUPER CRASH appears out of no where.
VADS – Velocity Acceleration Days where markets manipulated entirely by software soar to record highs and take profits to record lows as volatility is more common and extreme in forward time frames.
LABS – Liquidity Accounting baseline securities. Global assessment of liquidity base lines for all asset classes world wide to determine the increase in liquidity baselines – increasing system stability overall or the massive decrease in the trading base to the market at core across base lines of liquidity – shrinking market stability by ratio’s that are exponential.
LARS – Liquidity Acceptable Ratios’ which when range violated serve as a canary in the mine that a SUPER CRASH is now endemically closer to the systemic rebalancing economics always requires eventually – all accounts out of balance will re-balance which super money pools and their experts ignore at their enormous peril.
FRE – Forced Rebalancing Economics
So we Track information that includes INVENTIONS we do not see in current super money pool and public policy. It is if they are full speed ahead on the TITANIC ( the world economy ) and they fail to appreciate the economic rebalancing required to imbalances in accounts ( the ice berg they are approaching at full speed ahead ) has sufficient weight to over come their theory and Super Crash the system into failure and FORCED REBALANCING ECONOMICS. Super Crash.
But this ..is…NOT…..it ! No where near it in Jan 2018. And I”m the one that predicts a real correction sustainable around SPRING and if we miss that longer correction we are good to boom for years.
SO we have a little corrective profit taking at the end of January balance sheets. What? Software commanded and rippling. A little greed is all that is going on right now. Look MA ( Jack Ma ) there are no human’s involved – its all software and AI today – first time in history and your feeling the VADS have arrived if you follow my inventions economically and new rules for the digital casino economics – then your on board here and way ahead of the Ivy League know it all economists – just a little wet behind the ears historically is all. They try so hard but the market has warp driven into new digital economics their prior education failed to prepare them for at all. They are in new warp drive trying to forecast with the keys to their VW.
That ends with – how is that working out for you boys and decision makers? You all got this ? This brand new never before ever experience market space? Oh really?
Today’s software will see buying opportunities as record earnings rise up this week from the final record consumer buying quarter world wide. Buy in the dip will make this a software blip.
In our opinion.
EXXON announces it will spend 35 billion on US upgrading. The total from tax reform passed this month has passed 1 trillion dollars from off shore returning to HOME SHORE for investment in jobs plant and economic upgrading in the USA. We suspect a five year boom from up to 5 trillion being invested due to the tax break inside America. That wave is pretty challenging to argue with -IS it is too much money too fast? We’ll see.
President Trump will tell us the state of the UNION is STRONG tonight at prime time as the PITCH MASTER throws us his best sales lines to market a 1.5 trillion dollar communication, transportation, deep sea port, to transportation system retooling to make the USA the envy of the entire world. While defense spending is raised. Because with all this investment the tax revenues of the USA are soaring. Just soaring.
As Defense Secretary Mathis informed Congress – noting the studies showing the USA would not a win a global war today – its close – as our commander and leader stated – as head of Joints Chief’s of all Commands – AMERICA CAN ALWAYS AFFORD SURVIVAL.
North Korea can Nuke us this year. Which is suicide for the inside team as North Korea has its own LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION EVENT taking place now. Will China and Russia keep North Korea afloat to finance Nuking the USA? Probably. It is asymmetrical warfare and we are loosing the first battles across the world. All well reported here.
The issues related to global markets is all about:
- Traditional values – the ratio of making a risk investment and how long that investment will return with profits based on current and future earnings of that long term bet.
- Traditions of liquidity or the LAB – larger liquidity accountable baseline Securities. Since World War II the global markets have moved into the cloud when all regulations are local to their nations. Digital software now controls the markets with a Base moved from tens of millions holding the large % of the trading velocity to less than 10,000 super money pools controlling the larger % of trading volume. The upside down pyramid accelerates risk of a forward SUPER CRASH.
- Traditional bond and equity market disintermediations taking place this week in fact. A matter of charts and history in markets.
Fully explaining 1 – 2 – 3 is complex and global. There are sufficient “givens” for a University post graduate class at Harvard in this data mix and the data mix is changing as never before in history.
A final thought today. The market is price ranged controlled by software and AI. AI trading against AI. Brokers – Super Money Pools – Sovereign Nation Funds – and everyone trying to be the FUND OF FUNDS ( my buddy Barny Cornfield never got that right either for anyone old enough to remember and recall historic market space SUPER CHANGE ).
The markets have gone through the most vast structural change in ten years form 2000 years. The markets of common outcry and floor trading specialist making a market are gone. Virtual. Digital. The experiment of cloud based – outside all nation regulatory frame works – price range manipulation of markets – in a casino capitalism like the world has never seen before is why buddy David Stockman and hero economist wrote you last year – GET OUT OF THE CASINO WHILE YOU STILL HAVE TIME. Then he presented his case in point.
For those who love roller coasters you are going to next witness VOLATILITY ACCELERATION DAYS – VADS. The frequency of volatility is going to increase as the digital market reaches borders and capacity to maintain price ranges now challenging software parameters.
The profit driven mindless software will improve and be moderated by the VAD’s to accommodate a softening of VADS. The adjustments to the software will now ( take it from a software designer from Silicon Valley also an investment banker economist ) make more frequent with ever more peaks to the valley’s of the software induced vocality. The stable markets of the past several years are relatively quiet from the past.
The future will be new record highs and new lows on VAD days. The VAD will become the new normal so that YOU are used to the VAD accelerations and fail to appreciate the overall casino market is becoming inherently more unstable globally.
The trigger for the impending SUPER CRASH is a DEBT BOMB EXPLOSION. One firm in China is now experienced a debt liquidity melt down. That firm is too many billions behind in lease payments world wide to report to you as the total sum is staggers and skyrocketing. The firm is selling assets like a building on fire but the tens of millions coming in are to slow and low to effect the tens of billions behind due right now. If this debt bomb in China cascades the SUPER CRASH is more close in than more far out.
Global SUPER DEBT BUBBLES are the cause of all world depressions.
This next one will be no exception.
The failure in Communism and Capitalistic nations to join Kings and cement a G 100 nation Economic Constitutional Congress to upgrade a single GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM which moderates consolidation of wealth, is fair trade with no nation left behind, and which precludes unwanted debt or asset class bubbles is a three year upgrading the brains and master minds can march us forward into.
The lack of solution is not ideas and IP.
The lack of solution is a lack of WILL by the super money pools that buy and control nations.
Political WILL is lacking.
One inspired leader could carry us all forward in cooperation, trust and systems replacing distrust and competitive impulse as insane. Cooperation is the future. Competition is world war and untold repeating of past human history.
Are we that insane today? That manipulated?
We are all about to truly see.
In my opinion the markets will recover from the present software profit taking and forged to 30,000 DOW, 40,000 DOW, 50,000 DOW and up to 100,000 DOW over five years of unimaginable wealth spiraling and global prosperity ( if the DEBT BOMB does not go off ). To be sure there will be enormous VADS along that path which won’t phase super money pools but which can wipe out grand ma.
So buyer beware.
Buy low and SELL HIGH.
The stock market is a casino.
Put your nest egg in diversified insurance investing.
Put your Vegas money on any bet you chose win loose or draw.
Hope this helps on what IS going on OUT There today.
Berny Dohrmann – Right Again – I did tell you – yes I did & often ….
BUY IN THE DIP …ANDYOU MAKE SOFTWARE A BLIP
APPLE IN CRISES SERIES: JAN 29th – STOCK FALLING
In October and monthly since, you have read FIRST and read here that Apple is in crises. Why? The answer in a three letter word – TIM.
We wrote first about the crises at Apple.
We wrote first that Tim – in the old Al Gore line – buddy it is time for YOU to go.
We wrote first here – it is not just about earnings and the utter truth that Apple has ben lying.
See the problem is not:
- The unfolding software problems Apple can not fix
- The unfolding hardware problems Apple can not fix
- It is the underlying quality control cost reductions that have led to the biggest BRAND SLAUGHTER as Tim takes Home tens of millions in bonus pay and the institution is forever damaged at the Apple Core. Why?
Apple market share was a feature of the COOL FACTOR. Apple was not another phone computer or gadget. No way.
Apple was “THE” Phone the Computer or the Gadget.
Not in 2018.
In 2018 Apple is a commodity like Microsoft or Google. The others have caught up. What separates Apple is a very thin digital virtual line you can’t even see in 2018 with Apple Glasses. Maybe Google glasses.
The others have caught up and have their own COOL FACTORS now stripping Apple of the honor of even being first.
Apples triple the price home SIRIR compared to leader Amazon and Echo is a joke on feature comparisons or ease of use for the money. The questions rises now for millions why buy Apple?
If there is no remaining COOL factor why pay more?
Famous customer service has no answers for the countless software glitches.
The genius bar can no longer fix their hardware design flaws reaching consumers from Apple quality control being stripped of what once it was famous for.
The Chinese are making a better featured ranked phone for half the price and Apple’s response is to delay the sale of such phones in the USA as they lose market share at Apple in the EU and ASIA where the BETTER H PHONE IS AVAILABLE.
Millions of users we will call “THE BASE” are now aware – and they are leaving Apple – and forever.
Because the one thing that took the COOL LOYALTY AWAY lays at the BOARD OF DIRECTOR LEVEL. They Board watching all the melt down live from the Keynote last September ( rehearsals catch those errors Tim Boy ) and forward – Apple did an un-Jobs ( and I knew Stephan in Silicon Valley where I built my first empires ) –
- Apple did not apologize – until it was way to late to its users
- Apple was unable to fix the problems – and lied to their users
- Apple lied to their users directly or by omission.
- Apple failed to take responsibility and tell the whole truth
- Apple quality control was changed and reduced obviously and god awful flawed software and hard is being released for profit that Tim can report.
- Apple is being punished for such practices by the market space
The Stock is plunging in Apple – I know I own it. I predicted the stock would plunge in my on going Blog Series reported before any media – all bought and paid for which Apple Pay – advertising – failed to report until just a tepid report coming up “today” as we move to February from September when all this was known last year?
Today Apple is off a bit on its sales forecast. Some say BY 50% or half? Does Tim have a claw back from the failed Apple Core ( its own Board ) for the tens of millions when deceit lack of competency and management that slaughtered the # 1 brand in the world – harms the culture the core product the brand and the core CULTURE which is the cornerstone of the Apple Future in all markets?
The consumer trust in APPLE has been Shattered by Tim altering quality control process – checks and balances and taking profits from the one area only more resources need to ever flow into – the protected zone.
But quality delays buggy launches.
Which one takes the hit on for the brand excellence.
If not – then the cost of say half a trillion dollars must be paid – and by whom?
We stay as the shareholders pay this cost they sack the BOARD and install a management that will tell the truth faster.
We all enjoyed that in the past – one of the big items Steve Jobs invented – tell the truth to Apple users faster especially if a mistake is made.
If you lie faster you get – not so much in stock price.
Not so much in Apple store sales.
Not so much in anything.
To be sure Apple liars will stay true to THEIR NATURE.
They will bury the rot at the apple core – in earnings accents on services ITUNES and other subscription services even while their main engine – IPHONE is off 5% ( a killer in any market ) off 10% ( terminal in any market ) off 15% – death in any market – off 20% – or off say 25% say a GE or IBM Moment in any market – but off 30% or off 40% or off 45% but folks off 50% at Christmas with your main product – off by the margin and % this Tim SIN team is off – is beyond terminal. Its use anti aircraft guns on Tim and His Team – Rocket Boy style – because he has slaughtered the Apple brand and share price.
My readers are clear.
The Media has been bought and paid for by Apple Pay and has not fairly reported APPLE IS IN CRISES and there is ROT AT THE APPLE CORE.
50% off on earnings – at Holiday Season – really ? Are you kidding me?
All the dollar advantage of a lower dollars is NOT HELPING APPLE come back.
Now the crises at APPLE reported here in clear four-color data and facts, is going to effect millions of loyal innocent shareholders who will find they can’t believe the change in Apple values about to come to you from now through this Spring.
When you want to write some one and you take up a Pen –
Don’t write TIM.
Write the Chairman fo the Board for Apple that they need a Management change to assure the cause ( Apple Rot at the core of Apple ) does not infect more of the barrel at Apple.
What is at risk now is the barrel itself – but apparently this investment banker economist ( not because I”m so wise and experienced which I am but because I’m so old over so many decades and have seen it all before ) – is what is AT RISK IS – the entire BARREL AT APPLE.
Watch as the COST OF APPLE ROT now rots the share price.
Berny Dohrmann – Thanking Tim for Brand Slaughter into February
THE US DOLLAR – TRADE WARS – AND THE TRUTH
Lets start with economics. I am most comfortable on that side of the Fake news – gossip – and hear say she said he said – stories of these times we live within.
Follow the money.
So after World War II – the USA WON. The Soviet Union and the EU would have perhaps LOST if it were not for the USA blood guts and frankly money.
The victor gets the spoils of war.
Our spoil was – that the currency that as driving world economics the London Pound the prior reserve currency, the Pound Sterling – was in inflationary need to rebuild economics. The MARSHALL Plan helped the UK first and the entire EU second. The Marshal Plan was build to rebuild Germany and later Japan, from utter devastation as economic holes in the world.
The World Reserve currency means what? Lets consider what it means:
- All global trading is settled in US dollars – meaning every nation has to have enough US dollars or trade their currency into US dollars to pay for say energy or food imports. Further a cost to make that conversion and to keep your printed money in dollar based reserves exists known as the carrying cost or carry trade as it extends.
- The USA pays less for everything which is acquired with US dollars and everyone else pays more.
- The US dollar has been the only currency with sufficient
- ( depth of circulation and liquidity globally – trillions in the system
- System liquidity the system to settle trades at the trillions taking space in real time seamlessly
- the last refuge of safety due to the strength of the USA asset value to its debt and its economic diversity to its total output which is always rising
- Confidence within the strongest ( by far not even close to others ) economic machine humanity has ever known or experienced.
4. The US dollar is the court of final safe harbor in times of world future knowns
5. The US dollar is further made safe haven by the support of the largest military power the world has ever experienced in human history which continues to step away from all others by a large safety margin.
So the US dollar is at a multi year low. Why?
Have you noticed various trade deals are being re- constituted world wide?
Do you believe trade since world war II has been largely subsidized ( by the USA at great cost to the USA ) and that moving forward a new FAIR trade to the USA side of trade must be installed which is not a political issue it is an economic issue. Lets look at it this way.
- We are in a world trade war that began the crash of 2007 and is a spiral becoming more public and savage economically.
- The trading partners would like another basis to settle trade that does not make THEM – so CO DEPENDENT on the USA as a buyer and as a DOLLAR FINAL COURT TO SETTLE TRADES as the US dollar “IS” the world reserve currency.
- Holding money in dollars since 2007 has paid ZERO INTEREST. This zero interest has made it cost money in real terms to hold reserves in dollars – although this is a snap shot of time in the market space. Why?
- Dollars being low in value – off sets weight of unfair trade pricing and practices. American goods and services becomes massively affordable seen by rising US exports from energy to food to technology and services – a graph soaring since 2015.
- In negotiation the dollar being high makes every other nations goods LOWER COST TO US – your toaster – your wash machine – your car from outside the USA or anything from clothes to customer service in india or the Philippines. When the dollar rises the USA goods cost more ( which is just fine inside fair versus unfair trade systems ). When trade deals over decades are so antique – weighted and financially advantaged to everyone BUT the USA – making their goods so low cost and their taxes and cost to bring American Goods in – is not a two way street – and is staggering in time and money cost to DO BUSINESS in Asia or EU for American firms – where it is snap your fingers for their firms to come to the USA. One way to negotiate better trade deals is to keep your US dollar LOW – which also makes debt borrowing for USA in dollars – low – lowest ever – while TIME is on our side as GNP is soaring asset value is soaring and trade is soaring and the profit to the USA or the DEFICIT is falling – millions of Americans no longer use food stamps or un employment or even social security because they have GREAT And ever BETTER JOBS and careers that excite them. As millions stop spending Government social capital and start contributing taxes and government reserve capital the US dollar gets stronger and stronger and TIME is helping the USA to rebalance trade world wide.
In the Trade wars of 2018 and 2019 the outcome remains country to country versus huge regional deals. In the Regional Deals the system model must be fair and if it is not the USA is not only not playing with that unfair nation they are going to stop BUSINESS AS USUAL since World War II protocols and put on stiff duty and tax to sell under priced goods into the USA creating a level playing field instead of a 1950 tilt not in favor of the USA for decades. This is being worked out by all parties and is not political. This is a process to assure the US dollar remains the world reserve currency for 300 more years of time.
First be clear – there is no alternative to the US dollar as an economic system model. The Communist in Russia, and Beijing have a phony economy model of lies and false reporting that when the SUPER DEBT BUBBLE rebalances, will wipe both off the map echoically. Hard landings for their people – who were lied to financially – and decades to restore their full partnership as they SUPER CRASH which they will. Its economic not personal or political.
The EU is drowning like a row boat in a hurricane of DEBT that has no end. The EU can not rebalance the debt of Greece let alone the massive ice begs of Italy Debt or Spain’s Debt and so many more. It is economic sewage – a economic first generation home ( the EU system model and box top rules ) that is now even now burning to the ground – where the system designers never put in sprinkler systems or fire ESCAPES – all the while having nice mostly meals telling the EU community just how well their debt financed NON ECONOMY is doing out there. The EU will de-evolve into something we suggest will be second generation and improved – or drift into wars. As is historic to rebalance debt accounts of nation where too many nations are in fact like China – actually bankrupt. If you reported accounting like say a Fortune Firm does – but nooooo shudder fake news to do that economically in our life time. War is more acceptable to telling you all the truth. Heck they make fortunes on war.
Today the consolidation is IMF verified to hover around 18% own more wealth than 82%. In some nations 1% own more wealth than 99% which is always a pre war moment of the economic death spiral in which options to fix the issues ( economically ) are beyond politicians and war is the manner in which blame is shed the public never understands the true issues, and the economics reset via war to victors if there are any.
Now then lets reap my children.
First – we are in a protracted trade war to rebalance global box top rules and agreements for world trade.
Second – this is a highly undesirable every nation is in it for themselves competition – versus a Cooperative Capitalism – where the G 100 collaborated within a NO NATION LEFT BEHIND new global trade scheme. Outcomes are typically high volatility and growing geo political instability.
Third – the threat to any existing order is learned from Greece and Rome. Those nations led the world due to leadership in military invention and weapon superior designs. They both fell in half a decade when their enemies they labeled with fake news at the time as barbarians when they were far from that – acquired the WEAPONS OF ROME. Ask yourself how safe is the entire system economically when the barbarians own the weapons of Rome and the superiority of the weapons GAP ( in AI and innovation ) shrinks to inshgifigance. Is this the reason last week scientist closed the DOOMSDAY CLOCK to now only seconds not minutes until a human extinction event ( look it up ).
Four – Can new tools to collaborate which Trump discussed last week at DAVO”s as the theme message to all sovereign nation leaders – resolve FAIR TRADE without WAR and with inclusion for all? A first for humanity if we can get there.
Fifth – If we break down in trade or if we continue to spiral 1% own more wealth than 99% we reach a LEE or Liquidity Evaporation Event in which the old system dies economically which itself becomes a trigger or shooting wars between have not nations an have nations over history time lines.
So how does one predict.
Well one first realizes the most powerful institutions the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board and their global alliances and friends control all the money all the rules and all the systems. If they support the US dollar – trade in vast dollar reserves for other currencies – or buy up dollars out of the market and build up reserves in dollars that pay for everything as the store of value that beats diamonds and oil – the dollar goes down or goes up and trade moderates for the USA down or up as they do it.
So lets make some predictions knowing our accuracy since the 1980’s and here goes ( again ) – always consistent for you:
- We predict NAFTA and Asia and related EU trade deals will rise up as will others.
- We predict as FAIR TRADE advances – American will lead the world economically into a new age of prosperity and mutual abundance.
- We predict a market correction is likely this SPRING. A a solid correction to rebalance ratio’s of pricing that are insane today.
- We predict a good solid crash in oil prices. Everyone is long. No one is short. LEE will occur and the over supply will be clear in weeks ahead. Watch how many lose billions on the wrong side of this silly speculative bubble.
- We predict over one trillion dollars flowing back into the USA for plant, jobs, invention, within a trillion dollar infrastructure rebuilding the USA will be able to fully afford modernizing USA cities and creating the first SMART NATION versus smart city and the result of THAT we predict -will be the most massive global rising period of abundance in the 2020’s of human experience ever. If we get the cooperation wrong all bets are off and we have wars. If we cooperate and collaborate seeing sanity versus insanity in our methods and processes we win – billions of all of us win.
Economics require consideration of financial wild cards. The current world system lacks regulatory frame works to manage out of control digital super money pool manipulations of trade and asset classes. The worst wild card is these two national pressures the majority of sovereign nation’s now face:
- Debt burdens from decades of layered debt that failed to result in economic growth to pay off the growing debt Super Bubble.
- Infrastructure capital required to advance the nation to sustaining growth which economically provides surpluses sufficient to maintain prosperity and stability in the nation.
Our team is advancing to Sovereign Nation’s a new class of bond – known as SUPER BONDS via Roel Campos at Hugh’s and Hubbard a leading bond legal agency for sovereign nations. The SUPER BOND INVENTION concentrates all debt into one debt SUPER BUCKET and concentrates ( with conditions and requirements of course ) forward infrastructure into yet another bucket, which both SUPER BUCKETS are in fact financed by the swimming pool we place them into called a sovereign nation SUPER BOND. The Secret sauce of the SUPER BOND allows sustained economic prosperity for demographically challenged economic like Italy and China, with instant favorable outcomes.
SUPER BONDS may be the one new OPTION that precludes the old model of world war to rebalance Economic abuses in the global system. When you read the superficial histories of what caused World War I and what Caused World War II and what causes any war – we read with different glasses. The Fake News of historic text books is nothing more than national propaganda. If you wish to be uneducated buy into the pablum and get a beer a pizza and watch a sports game. Have fun. Be happy.
If you want to KNOW why every war since city states in Greece or throughout all o human history were caused – let me tell you – it was all economics and imbalances that over time built to a point the only political way forward was war. It is never Muslim versus Christian in the Crusades – it was always economic in fact.
When you appreciate all wars are preventable but all wars require options that are unseen and unknown.
Hitler gained power economically with insane box top rules to sustain economics. A master race is a form of insane concept. A master faith is a form of an insane thinking error. All humanity must be celebrated in diversity – and all competitive expressions even in disagreement of values and ideas – we must be sane versus competitively insane. Competition punishes all diversity and has no respect for diversity. Cooperation celebrates all diversity and never punishes diversity expressed in Fatih, creed, color, politics, economics life style, or any form of your expression that does not pose a threat of harm to my circle because you respect and celebrate say that I’m Christian while I celebrate your Muslim and seek to have joy learning from you versus every punishing you in any form. Sane versus insane. Read my Book if this calls to you REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION which frankly is all about economics – your own from home space to work space to nation space.
So as economic opinion it is our opinion:
- The market will correct this Spring and go up over years of time to 100,000 DOW.
- The Dollar will rebound into FAIR TRADE and stun the world.
- Energy will fall in price and wipe out billions on the wrong side of the bet – a bit insane really.
- The USA will lead the nations of the world into a new age of prosperity.
- The USA may do all this with Trump over two terms or the USA may go political – and one term Trump – and no one can predict because the MID year elections are the outcome. If Trump picks up ten seats there can be no successful impeachment as any impeachment would fail and Trump will well know that. If Trump loses ten seats and the Democrats decisively win in the mid year all bets are off for the process to one term Trump. Which will be politics running Economics versus economics running politics.
Now then a BIT TO DO ABOUT NOTHING.
The POT calling the Kettle Black.
So the USA meddles in all elections around the world from May in the UK to tapping Maekle’s in Germany’s cell telephone thank you NSA courtesy of Snoweden. We tap the phones of our best buddies and allies and secretly use that information. We use social to influence everyone’s election.
All nations do the same to us. Nations support the candidate they think will be most friendly to them. What is new about that? Those efforts have zero effect on the outcome of an AMERICAN Election. The notion a US candidate conspired with a foreign nation and criminally stole an election is fake news – a SET UP – and truly a shame for our people. All of us. When you lack real bullet – shit in your hand and throw your shit into the other guys face. Monkey’s do that. Should we running nations? Should 500 of the Congress divide into this form of shit throwing or not? Can we not do better than that.
So the billion spend on this entire matter – is truly legally – a tragic moment in the USA. Who cares of Bill Clinton got a blow job working late – it is none of your business folks. All leaders deserve a private personal life – we did not elect Saints because there are none. George Washington was a ferocious womanizer so was Mark Anthony – today they would have to RESIGN. Powerful men and powerful woman have used those powers for sexual and financial gratifications throughout all time. Abuse in this area is never RIGHT but stopping it is not going to take place from tabloid news. Not with human beings.
What is the issue.
Trump is President.
Trump won. Not by a little. By a lot.
His disrespect from those who hate him is not American a value.
Disagree with Trump – but respect him in your disagreement.
Respect the office of the President over any individual in that office.
Today America institutions and systems are in a reform phase. The side that wants things just as they have been -not upgraded in the age of Super Change – are bitter entrenched and die hard to secure NO CHANGE ON THEIR WATCH. Those once in a generation upgraders who wish to improve and upgrade the system – as both sides have all political interests with them – are passionate and totally committed. The sea change between the UPGRADE OR DO NOT UPGRADE mind sets has become predictably polarized truly bitter and dis-respectful one side to the other.
Non issues rise up around the real issues.
The USA is booming during all this change leadership I a messy democratize debate that will take years to unfold to its final positions.
The Tax change is bringing so far a trillion dollars of investment into the USA just in the first quarter of 2018. Trillions more will follow from nations and companies all over the world. The rising tsunami of investing will create a DOLLAR WEALTH that you can take to the bank.
SHORT TERM DOLLAR DROPS ARE DUE TO US POLICY TO MAKE AMERICAN GOODS FAIR TRADE UNTIL NEW TRADE AGREEMENTS OFFSET ANY SUCH NEED. IF YOU WILL NOT PLAY FAIR WE WILL MAKE IT MORE COSTLY FOR “YOU” TO TRADE WITH US – SIMPLE ECONOMICS.
The USA is producing more oil than any one but Russia – and we are passing Saudi this year – probably this quarter – then we will pass Russia. The USA will move from Obama energy policy continued and expanded by Trump to in just ten years rise from 15th oil producer to the # 1 oil producing nation on earth – and stay there. As energy is the cost of everything why not just economically look at the dollar this way.
THE DOLLAR IS UNDERWRITTEN BY THE # 1 SUPPLIER OF ENERGY TO THE REST OF THE WORLD WITH NO END IN SIGHT FOR HOW STRONG THAT MAKES THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY BY AND OF ITSELF.
I is my economic position that the USA DOLLAR Is what every citizen in middle class world wide requires – where 5% of your personal savings should be – and always remain – US dollars as a store of value. Looked at over time the US dollar buying power is in every nation what you want in your pocket.
Nations will increase not reduce their dollar holdings because they are smart frankly. Today they can buy those reserves cheap. If they miss that dollar cost average window the dollar will rise to levels inflation economies know so well.
Today the DOLLAR IS A DOLLAR STORE.
Nations we predict will flood into dollar buying between now and the Spring and the DOLLAR is going to SOAR IN VALUE to levels not seen in years.
Take all those economics to the bank as you try and sort all the moving parts out. Folks from immigration reform to infrastructure the USA is upgrading and THAT is a Re-INVENTING OF AMERICA that is being done by democrats and republicans working together – there is far more of that than the news owned by SUPER MONEY is letting you understand.
In fact we feel the NEWS secretly Is the real crime – news with an outcome – news that is delivering a political position – that is a crime in fact to those lacking discernment as to how SUPER MONEY MANIPULATES your information. That crime is far worse than any reports about Russia doing anything in the social space folks Give me a break – THINK will you.
Respect the President you do not agree with. Express your views with respect in our system.
Stop patronizing and viewing dis-respect. Spin. Manipulation.
News is influenced by SUPER MONEY as a commercial product. Fire-walling that trend and rolling back that trend is what I feel will eventually rise up.
What is wrong with America will be corrected.
But what is right about America.
What is right about America is 300 million of US versus 500 of THEM.
Berny Dohrmann – Respecting the US dollar for all the right reasons
OIL – THE COST OF EVERYTHING IS ENERGY AND FOOD PRODUCTION – BASED ON OIL PRODUCTS
The American drilling rig count is way up over last year. The output from America is about to pass Russia and Saudi Arabia. America in the shortest time frame is about to become the LARGEST WORLD OIL PRODUCER.
With the non opec discoveries that drawf the GULF total reserves – with the rising out put of OIL globally – why is the price so much higher in 2018. No one saw it coming.
I still believe the price for oil is fully manipulated in casino capitalism. I also believe that oil economics is about to change forever. The most massive shift away from OIL USE is taking place to other models of energy the cost of everything.
Oil’s value is not to burn it up. No. This precious material makes 1100 products and is responsible for fertilizer and pesticides without which 50% of world food crops would not exist. Oil is too precious to burn out.
- CEOSPACE is introducing low cost hydrogen fuel from water that creates environmentally endless fuel for planes trains and things, from ships to your car from water. All power will be made from this model due to lower Kilowatt costing. So that is here now.
- Natural Gas is renewable – a fart from the earth – and lower cost to make power than anything else. We are shifting from oil to natural gas.
- Alternative power – taking market share from oil world wide at a pace that is renewable environmentally sane and appropriate.
- Earth Heat technologies – the lowest constant energy cost to power all humanity needs for thousands of years is under your feet – low cost – technically resolved and now rising world wide taking market share from oil.
- Breeder reactors – we are about to use SUN energy that is safe endless and self replenishing for unlimited low cost energy.
- Quantum differentials – no heat no environmental impact – and low cost endless new energy from quantum physics that is game changing for humanity.
- And more and others coming on line as you read these words.
Oil is an energy of insanity and the past.
The industrial revolution was a humanity game changer..
The new AI revolution is the coming humanity game changer.
Energy is effected by the new AI wars.
Oil is as a commodity:
- Price manipulated by cartels for greedy profits a hidden tax against 7 billion people most of them starving to death for no reason at all but elite money making. Insane systems we inherited and lack appreciation for how to revolutionize them into something far more sane and efficient.
- Plentiful abundant more supply than demand all over the earth and seas.
- New discoveries replace depletions stacking up reserves
- Economic policies protect entrenched industry and fail to provide low cost refinery and output supply to moderate greed and profit.
- Obsolete economic policies protect profit making for entrenched interests.
- INSANE global energy policy in trade wars between nations versus SANE cooperative and collaborative global energy policies between nations.
For example, what if the USA formed a NASA like agency to producer and distribute cheap oil products as a national security item. Oil would plunge to under $ 1.00 a gallon at the pump. All nations could then develop and feed their people.
This is not going to happen as oil wealth is protected in the current economic scheme of the FEW AGAINST THE MANY. Competitive capitalism and Communism are failed economic systems that permit casino capitalism and organized crime in the form of cartels who profit from supply controls for greed. These two failed economic systems are the cause of all world wars and human mirsery ( economic system failure ) as these two systems are at core based upon a pyramid that looks like this ( Draw one and label it ):
Bottom : Punishment ( your fired or shot )
Center – EXPLOITATION ( get the most from wage slaves for the least )
This human system in trade wars between nations is INSANE ECONOMICS.
My book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION you an acquire on Amazon – defines the solution we call COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM and how we can all get there without a world war.
The people of the world – all – at least in the 140 nations our service extends at CEO SPACE to a person – WE THE PEOPLE OF THE EARTH FEDERATION ALLIANCE – EFA – ( 7 billion say of US ) want a better way.
WE WANT A BETTER WAY.
So today – the dollar is falling as I wrote in my prior blog on Davos – to off set I trade war those who would act in financial warfare against the interest of the USA and its alliances and people. The trade wars are heating up as Trump is now engaged fully in winning asymmetrical warfare ( economic and digital warfare ) against the USA and its allies.
Gloves are off.
Huge changes are coming.
The old rules and models including oil are going to change.
Oh you may see volatility in oil like you have not seen in perhaps ever Huge spikes either way.
In the end OIL is GOING DOWN – and you’ll will come to see this prophetic item become gospel as economics. Own one economic sentence outside fake news from billions spent by oil monopolies many nations -to assure you buy the lie is reality and reality is a lie – this is the truth not the lie:
….the earth shits and farts oil which is fully renewable 200 year old wells are full and replenished – the EARTH IS DROWNING IN OIL while they raise prices as a tax against all humanity in 2018 which holds back 7 billion wonderful spirits from their full potentials world wide…for the profit of the few against the many which economically is always immoral unethical without integrity and fully INSANE……..
So oil IS going up in 2018 and the reason for it going up is speculation and manipulation that is a crime against all the rest of us. America is the tipping point in the trade war that will bring oil prices down as the dollar soars after trade wars rebalance from todays unfair insanity among nations at economic and digital war.
Berny Dohrmann – Ah what IS really going on out there – follow the $ $