THE HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET IS DOWN FOR LAST TWO WEEKS !
The last two weeks of September have been wind sheer for stock markets . If we look at historic trends the market of today would have to drop 40% to reach fair market value. Said another way the market of 2017 looks a lot like the frenzy of 1999 when the market crashed in the 2000 Dot.Bomb crash that corrected all markets. The markets are going to have pull back from this frenzy. But it may not be right NOW.
Blog Data. The market has fallen 70% of the time ( and folks that is still far from 100% of the time ) in the last two weeks of September leaving a 1.5% average negative result due to the drops. Is a new wave of volatility about to hit the markets? You know year end balance sheets are being modeled now and profit taking may become more than profit making for the big money planners and that is a RIGHT NOW end of quarter exercise. Bam.
So the Fed is about to unwind its 5 trillion dollar crap asset portfolio it piled up in the Great Recession. The problem is that this has never ever been done.
The limited modeling of even close comparisons 100% of the time ( and thats right 100% of the time ) created a recession. Why?
Financial illiteracy. The glasses folks look through fail to see the economics really.
The Fed stops buying market crap to filter the market plowing liquidity into the global market space. Now the Fed has to sop up more liquidity. It occurs under their plan in three stages so near term 50 Billion Dollars a MONTH is taken from global liquidity. If you appreciate data you scratch your head and say how does that in a fragile recovery time out? You mean right now where the massive base of small cap companies are in negative growth and struggling and only the high cap companies have 9% growth . The much more massive base is 1.5% down bubble in small business space – where CEO SPACE leads. Data can never be ignored economically.
Bookvar one of my own favorite analysts reported today – “I wills cream from the highest mountain if I am wrong the Fed raised interest rates and sells it’s portfolio and the market still grows and expands…versus recession plunges”….yahoo way to call it.
September has been the worst monthly return for the S&P since 1950. The bulls think it is all humbug and have reasons in the casino capitalism you read about here that market manipulated prices will continue to rise and they may.
At month end to compound issues with Korea and terror and storms on oil supply and more – comes another hurricane – and Congress Cyclone releasing their draft for tax reform. The leadership says “we can get this done in 2017”. We don’t believe it can get done any time soon.
So if your in the hope boat and data is not a guide for you – bet on risk and buy at the all time highest market cap prices in world history.
If you believe in buy LOW and SELL HIGH – now is the day to get OUT OF THE MARKET and move into diversified insurance portfolio’s for five years. You will miss the Super Crash but you will not care nor will you lose.
I’ll keep presenting data and you do it as your gut tells you. But remember if the herd always stampedes off a cliff why not cut out as a leader into safe harbor. Find a nice save cave and ride out the financial storm clouds rising every higher until we get circulation vacuum and a financial tornado hits – FORCE 5 to the markets. Bam.
I’m just saying…..data is worth considering …..1950s to today with zero fed tampering as we have RIGHT NOW in this SEPTEMBER.
Berny Dohrmann: Helping you know what IS going on OUT there….TODAY