FAILED OPEC MEETS MONDAY:
Monday is just a discussion. In September comes the policy vote when SUEPR MONEY returns from vacation.
Saudi exports whet UP in June and we suspect most OPEC members are now cheating. Why?
To preserve market share.
Saudi has to preserve market share.
Monopoly manipulation of core price to world commodities is never economic sense in free open market driven economics. Commodities are way down. They will all go up IF inflation returns and deflation is removed.
Oil is plentiful to demand which is falling. Against rising supply and falling demand any commodity price goes down.
OPEC wants to artificially influence market price for their own greed. This is costing OPEC members untold billions of dollars as market price shifts from OPEC clients to NON OPEC supply sources forever. This is the largest market shift in modern history.
OPEC failed policy to influence and control world price – is a failed policy model that requires a new model for their security in market share. We have tried to consult to them at the top but that process takes years not months. We are working on it.
OPEC will try to talk the market higher.
We are simply watching the failed policy unfold as the power prestige and influent of OPEC wanes and its own members are leaving as their market share trumps what they see as failed policy making by leading member Saudi. Opec make in the end inside a market share global war on the price of everything – energy – fertilizer – pesticides transportation and containers – all from Oil- is hostage to the market share war taking place.
Will Iran and Saudi enter into a real war from their economic wars. Iran is just starting to return to the markets after the USA and EU world agreements. That is a good thing for us all. Iran is so smart. Will they bow to lose market share just as they get some back. Saudi took their prior market share. Now they are getting it back. Many old clients are returning by the billions of dollars. Saudi loses these billions. They lose market share to Lybia pumping more as they return and Nigeria pumping more as they return.
Monday Saudi will explore Iran Libya and Nigeria capping their market share explosion back – at some ceiling. Why limit their people’s money right when they require that cash most? To help Saudi preserve their market share in global market share wars. Iran see’s the policy of OPEC and SAUDI as a truly failed economic policy. They win with market share. Why stop their winning?
Saudi that requires their blood bath of lower prices – to levels their planning never considered ( just as in Sub Prime on real estate ) – and in the new market share wars, they need first to stop their own market share blood bath while selling we make more selling less at higher prices – which has proven a failed model – as they make less selling less at LOWER PRICES that will not go BACK UP and they lose critical market share in the failed policy forever which we wrote about first last summer. And 50 Times since. Iran and Saudi are reading this blog.
Monday will Iran be polite and consider and explore and do nothing but pump and gain market share. I would advise them to do just that and Nigeria and Lybia. Especially knowing Saudi cheated and increased exports in June and in July. If they are rising production to stop market share defeat why do other OPEC members even remain IN OPEC. Today it is as we wrote here in global trade wars – EVER NATION FOR THEMSELVES. It is the nature of the economic times we live within.
The world customer base for oil hates OPEC. They would like free real market freed from artificial monopoly control and the larger markets will insist on it and they are. The result is the markets for oil no longer pay attention to OPEC. They are buying nation to nation and deal to deal where market share flows as it always does to WHO as a supplier takes CARE of their customer best. Better service better prices win. The old model is forever destroyed the new model is being executed and evolving. The largest change in the PRICE OF EVERYTHING – energy – is taking place right now.
We the people largely have to watch. The market is in charge and OPEC is not in influent any longer. OPEC may break up over all this failed policy. Their members win as they do individually. IN the NEW oil markets.
Saudi is loosing untold money to Iran as Iran lost years ago untold money to Saudi. In market share shifting. Full circle. These old enemies have been at war for 1000 years. The old feuds are raw open and driven by economics of the oil economic changes. Every nation in OPEC is now in the future for themselves. What is best for them as individual nations noting OPEC is a failed antique model that has lost its core capacity to influent market anything. Each nation must follow future policy that is best for their people.
Saudi speaks but no one is really listening. It seems like they are united with political outputs and sound bytes. But in real exporting no on is listening as they all are racing for opportunities to win in the new evolving market share wars.
Take better care provision in service and perks to your customers and give them best pricing long term and preserve our own market share. Forget OPEC failed policy it has cost OPEC members a fortune already while others including the USA gain enormously. Soon the USA will be the larger supplier not OPEC. Now non OPEC producers supply the vast Marjory of oil and OPEC can’t change that as the % of OPEC supply against ever falling demand is itself FALLING by % year after year. That trend picks up speed Monday if OPEC members individually shoot their own market feet off.
We all see the decline of OPEC which the market no longer takes seriously. As seen by prices going down before their meeting. They have lost their standing. 2016 and 2017 rewrote the rule book the core box top rules for world markets. Traders are in market share buyer markets – and sellers had better secure market share or perish.
We do not believe OPEC total % of oil flowing into markets of falling demand against soaring supply can return influence of half a century ago into the future. We believe OPEC is a thing of the past. In this new post OPEC world – Saudi needs to focus on their market share and not price. To prosper and survive.
Berny Dohrmann – KEEPING THE OIL LIGHT IN PERSPECTIVE AS OPEC Meets yet once again in yet another PANIC EMERGENCY meeting of the tribe of oil producers losing their market share while they have pointless meetings.
PS: Keep in mind Saudi and Iran old enemies are in economic war first and a possible shooting war yet to come – and Iran is no longer amused over loosing market share to Saudi and Opec members. They are just returning to markets and their future is bright as they do.