TO MY BLOG READERS:
I cautioned the rally known as the TRUMP TRAIN is a FOOLS RALLY. Yes you can make and many have made a lot of money in a 30% up bubble in market overall prices. Ranging from Real Estate to Markets price across asset classes has risen dramatically over the very short window of time. But when the SUPER CRASH Hits and it will the profit will turn to loss in a finger SNAP. We have told you how to protect your own asset base. You will not have time if you delay into May.
The math modeling includes the following:
- THE USA has a down graph on GNP growth now under 1% at 07% for the first quarter or the slowest growth rate since the depth of the great recession three years ago. SLOWEST GROWTH IN THREE YEARS under Trump. That is what is REAL.
- Next The Price Earnings of equities and bonds have reached market record high’s that are out of line with market history. The market is hideously over priced and with no risk safety nets.
- The Congress of the United States is divided bitterly, dysfunctional, can not pass a USA budget let alone stimulate economic growth with policies. The dysfunction within an AT WAR divided congress is a cost to the world on policy, direction and economics. There is no way given the DEBT load of the USA that without a switched on turned on progressive CONGRESS passing INSPIRED LEGISLATION that the main engine of economic growth – THE USA – now in down bubble and close to recession statistics can restart inflation from deflation and rebuild economic trust confidence and growth.
- Automotive crashed in the first quarter – durable goods crashed – unemployment rose – lay offs are skyrocketing – retail is crashing Sears and Others may go out of business entirely Toyota says it may not continue as a going concern – wiping out its debt and bond holders – no one is factoring in the collective sinking taking place at core economics while only a handful of technology firms pace stock price earnings ratio’s that frankly are economic insanity. The market soars against all this bad news including the failure of Italy banks – the rising move to leave the EU by France Italy and other member states – the run on the currency and bank in China – the rising debt Super Bubble globally. No one cares and stocks soar based on 80% doing zip and 20% doing a bit better than zip and none justifying today’s pricing.
- Geopolitical instability – Syria with Gas – North Korea ( their ally ) with Gas Germs and Nukes – Russia and China playing proxy wars with Iran and North Korea and the USA to bring the Western financial system down ( they trade short and make a trillion when the market breaks adding their sovereign wealth funds to the cake mix in casino capitalism ) Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, ISIS and terror in general as the next BIG ONE is just a matter of time. Markets are soaring against this super high risk?
So we have reported these data points to our readers. So you have it first.
Now you have that the data point the USA has REPORTED THE SLOWEST FIRST QUARTER GROWTH AND EXPANSION IN THREE YEARS. The Graph of growth from 2014 went up and then last summer went down and is still going down. To what? Recession? Worse?
While everyone is drinking smoking and having a party globally.
So I suggest dance until midnight.
But ask not for WHOM THE BELL WILL TOLL……
For my nest egg children ….THE BELL WILL TOLL FOR THEE.
Berny Dohrmann – Investment Banker Economist
PS: Law makers fiddle world wide while Globally Rome is burning to the ground. Dance until Midnight then………
30 SUMMERS AND COUNTING:
Charts review of 30 summers and counting show less than an 05% average return on investment bets during the summer. Of the 2000 major ETF managers in just the USA 1900 plus will be on vacation retreats licking their profits off the boat dock all summer long.
The rest of the world is worst taking four months off and truly trolling. The big Players are typically:
- Taking profits in May and sailing away for the summer
- Adjusting portfolio’s for the summer “who cares” market 30 charts later
- Sell in May until Labor Day when the big boys come back to play ( and girls )
- Velocity trading depreciates all summer long
- The volume and velocity just lack heart regardless of the news
So the volatility will be dramatic but the outcome is likely to be chart # 31. For most selling in MAY and going away is simply a no brainer. They have MADE THEIR PROFITS in the largest peak time run up following a new President in all but a handful in history. They have those profits locked in. Before the market goes sideways – profit taking seem sin order.
Is this a market correction?
Or is this a pause of volume trading for the summer?
Is this a SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY tradition?
I think so.
Is this a real correction?
Depends on the NEWS and sound bytes after Labor Day when 2/3rds of all velocity trading is going to unfold to January. It will become CRAZY SPACE after Labor Day of that you can be sure. By then congress will define its lack of function or its move into real progress for the nation. We’ll know.
Investors will know.
And the MONEY WILL MOVE.
So watch the timing now as you may see a little rush up then a SELL IN MAY and GO AWAY effect. Don’t get caught in a fools rally.
Berny Dohrmann – FOUNDER CEO SPACE May 22nd Orlando – you should come
So North Korea could be the MOTHER OF ALL PROPSERITIES but NOOOO ! North Korea run by insane brains is blowing up 100 million dollar missile after missile. Rather than be at the bottom of 6 nations on the earth – ranked next to HAITI in GNP they are building weapons for what?
The end game is there is no more North Korea as we know it.
Or the MOTHER OF ALL PROPSERITIES.
Making a deal is so easy and so profitable.
No one wants to change their box top rules just their pathology to invest in end game versus regroup into the big bucks. PROSPERITY or Death?
It is insane to think of Death but there you go and taking a lot of others with them. That is insane brains. You can never assume they will act in their own best interest.
So the USA is gearing up.
The Missile Protection system goes LIVE in South Korea next week.
The North can’t get one missile launch right.
No one respects their rants anymore.
The only thing they offer the world is a failed mind set.
PROSPERITY OR TERMINATION?
Now there is a concept for sanity or insanity.
Never assume the insane will act in their or anyone else best interest. Why? Because they are NUTS that is why.
Nothing more or less.
Berny Dohrmann – Being Hacked by them – but who cares
INVESTMENT BANKER ECONOMIST’S READ DIFFERENT TEA LEAVES
In casino capitalism, all markets are working this way:
- Outside any regulatory control. Laws are blue sky to nations and trades are outside nations in the cloud.
- Software controls all trading all unregulated and without historic precedent.
- Leverage is fantastic with margin accounts the world has never seen before in leverage.
- Trading records are led by a small number of stocks versus the wider number in markets – so the fraction of rare performing stocks lead the entire market place?
- The base of participants in the market is historically at an all time low and the volume of trades is high due to leverage and software to software high volume trading.
- Sofware speculates and manipulates market prices using forward side bets on which way a price may go – betting both sides of the rope to the software construct riskless risk to trading volatility making CASINO INSTANT PROFITS daily in trading accounts. Software seeks riskless risk no matter which way the market goes. Insane.
- The risk remains pure economic fundamentals, super bubbles asset prices bursting, debt bubbles bursting and liquidity disappearing which software has no solution for and managers will not know what hit them when the debt calls rebalance. The system freezes. Liquidity stops in the casino in 72 hours and no plays anymore at all.
- Let us look at the base of participation in the market now at a 1930’s low level of total market players in. Yet the velocity and volume are so high. Why? Well, take 2 of over 18,000 shadow banking hedge funds and private equity firms and related financial institutions. Blackrock at 5.1 trillion in cash under management and Carlye at 4.7 trillion under management. These two entities manage over 10 TRILLION DOLLARS OF CASH. That is TWO FOLKS. High volume trading daily with half their bucks in ETF software trading accounts. China has 2.9 trillion in total cash reserves these two entities have THREE TIMES THE RESERVES OF THE NATION OF CHINA and more than the USA and the FED. TWO. There are 18,000 more in the casino.
So with less participation, THE MARKET using SUPER LEVERAGE ( say you leverage 10 trillion at 50 to 1 what does that trade globally ) all becomes an upside down pyramid. Most of the money is in private small folk savings and cash and is not playing in the market sittng on side lines at the top of the pyramid. The point of the upside down pyramid is leveraging and speculating ( side betting to manipulate volatility to profit daily in high volume software trading inside the casino market ). None of this market has anything to do with economics.Casno Capitalism has to do with casino side bets to make greedy mindless profits at all costs. It does not reinvent in growth or long term anything. This lack of regulatory ovesight and ramp up of out of control speculation since 1999 laws changed under President Bill Clinton, is important, because this is the CAUSE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION of 1902 and 1929. Both depressions. It uses the money for a stock by backs and further price manipulations across all asset classes as pure software manipulations across asset classes. It uses profits to consolidate where the elite fantastically wealthy 1% class get even more fantastically wealthy by the hour as the world middle class goes down bubble in the ocean of failed casino capitalism. Consolidation of wealth has reached a point of economic NON SUSTAINABILITY – an inconvient economic truth the IMF and WORLD BANK fail to present with sufficent full clarity to G 100 law makers.
So let’s look at the first quarter:
- The Fed will release the vital GNP number tomorrow for the first quarter of 2017. We told you it would be near zero growth. This means the growth anticipation of last year and the New Year was a lie and did not take place. We suggest the GNP will be under 05%. Or virtually zero which means we are entering a recession. As the Fed cuts back stimulus under a failed policy that DID NOT WORK AT ALL – inflation is not here -0 deflation is here – and they are now at FED and Gov cutting back spending and selling assets which will raise price costs to grow a business.
- Automotive output crashed in the first quarter – pure down graph.
- Manufacturing – pure down graph in first quarter.
- Consumer buying down first quarter March second month of falling consumer buying.
- Consumer confidence down this month.
So the GNP is declining in America. The main buyer for the world. The main trading partner. The money pool. That market in 2017 is going down and shrinking and stocks are flying UP. Do you see how strange that all is? During this period of the grand picture declining into a recession market, the market itself driven by the forces of casino capitalism and side bet high-velocity money pool software speculations – has SOARED IN VALUE. But only the smallest fraction of stocks have realistic price earnings ratio’s as the market is so hideous over priced today. Now the market is in waves of volatility. The ideal market for the casino to profit all the way up and all the way down each wave of volatility. Software speculation causes the waves keeps the waves moving and profits from all of the waves. Little folks get wiped out. As the waves get steeper and they come closer together eventually the declining GNP effects to world trade itself, will create a super bubble burst in asset classes. This will trigger a debt bubble bursting given the fantastic borrowing and debt the system is carrying from individuals to companies to nations. When the DEBT BUBBLE BURSTS system liquidity will freeze up. The FREEZE will take less than a week – 72 hours maybe. The result will be SUPER CRASH. The world system will be on lock down. The software folks will be loosing so much money and regulators will be in panic having caused this issue, by failure to REFRAME REGULATIONS In a digital market space they lost control over world wide.
The When is the unknown. A year. Two more. Five? How governments cooperate is the issue here. If they compete in trade war spirals as they are today, the end is closer. No one can predict the precise date. We have said the two windows we are watching are – OCTOBER of this year and Spring of Next Year.
Also the SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY Mantra – is rising. Take profits out now and move during the slower summer trading season to your villas’ while super money coasts during the summer with virtually no good returns in 30 summer charts – underpinning the SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY. Some of that is going to begin soon so watch for that effect.
So why does the market soar when there is no real news outside a less than 5% of companies reporting the earnings price share ratio to drive those across the board market rises? The answer is SUPER POOLS OF MONEY speculating in a new CASINO CAPITALISM driven by software fully outside any G 100 regulatory framework – and driving the largest speculative SUPER BUBBLE worldwide in the HISTORY OF HUMAN record keeping, across every asset class from your home and real estate to stocks and bonds and all side bet speculations.
The risk to the system itself is soaring.
I am far from alone in seeing all this. The IMF and World Bank see it and warn us. But the problem is collective solution dynamics. If you rant over and and over on the problem the market can not fix and correct itself. The leadership of the IMF and WORLD BANK need to unite and present consistently a MASTER PLAN SOLUTION. This solution framework has to include these elements:
COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM REFORM: STRESS THE SOLUTIOIN NOT THE PROBLEM
- The largest global G 100 nation rethink of the regulatory framework since the 1920/s, accommodating the new digital market place.
- A three-year ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS to create the first GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONSTITUTION adapted by G 100 nations – with a uniform regulatory framework, tax accommodation and enforcement model, and trade and full partnership and access model between signing nations.
- The framework installs COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM which is fully accountable, fully transparent, fully reporting, and has no systemic secrets all real time.
- Speculation and side bets are made crimes as they were from 1932 to 1999. Moving unwanted software speculations out of the marketplace returns economics to the market and self-grows world economies.
- A level playing field where the SYSTEM RULES self-correct to cooperation and competition ( cheating between partners ) is not tolerated within an INTEGRITY RICH AND RULE SET framework – as the crises are IN INTEGRITY by a failed system model.
It is time to REFRAME the core regulatory system for the world financial markets with all G 100 nations participating in establishing a set of global regulatory and trade rules that is fully inclusive of all. If we cooperate into COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM we all prosper. If we compete into deflation and trade war spirals as we are doing now we all PERISH.
I call upon the WORLD BANK and IMF to think about it.
Berny Dohrmann – SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY – IS MY SUMMER RANT TO YOU
DEFLATION THE SEEDS OF ALL DEPRESSIONS:
Deflation is the downward price spiral of wages and asset classes across all levels. Stagflation is when asset classes and wages are stuck for decades influenced by deflationary spirals from deleveraging the massive credit bubbles that created rises in asset classes over decades. Now imploding into market levels versus speculation levels.
If the markets of today were moderated such that the speculative leverage that is presently at record high levels, were removed as a market influence, the crash in asset class values would be substantial. Speculations to accumulate commodity stockpiles in many nations, to corner markets, to influence supply demand such as in fuels, and influence prices artificially, work out of the system through deflationary spirals. The long-term forces of deflationary economics are impossible for nations markets and policies to offset.
For example, the Japanese Crises of the 1980’s became a deflationary spiral for three lost decades of Japanese sinking growth in real terms. The result has been massive loss of economic powers and employment. There remains no end in sight. Even today Japan has failed with all its trillions in policy investments to reset an inflationary upward counterbalance to the continued deflation.
Oil – the cost of everything – now is the manipulation of monopolies like OPEC. The investment of OPEC nations like Saudi by the 100’s of billions to influence price to upward mobility at targets of 60 or higher per barrel this year have lost OPEC market share of a trillion dollars while dropping the price into the $ 40.00’s. DEFLATION. As Oil bed rocks the cost of food, packaging, medicine, transportation, energy, everything. The deflation of oil from 120 dollars to 49.00 dollars – is not represented by pump prices. Oil has fallen 70% but the pump price is down only 45%. Such counter weights wear out as deflation lingers.
The US has put 11 trillion dollars into its inflationary game plan over ten precious years. We have now lost a decade of real growth and the deflation characteristics of the market are still with us. As free money credit and it’s huge ALL ASSET CLASS BUBBLE comes to a close, the bubbles will burst. This will return market wide deflationary accommodations into the market.
Said another way, asset classes from Real Estate to Equities will adjust price from bubble high’s to market reality in deflationary valuations. If asset classes are spiral downward in value, credit extended assuming asset classes will rise in value, are in many geopolitical postions, disintermediated into super high risk. Bonds and credit bubble defaults must wring their way out of the system to rebalance accounts. This painful process is a feature of longer term deflationary cycles.
Economic recessions tip into depressions globally, based upon the time length of the free money credit speculation price manipulation bubbles across access classes, the ratio of the bubble manipulation and its duration, and the move out of liquidity to support the bubble dynamic in forward ongoing market terms. As margin loans dry up and are called in a downward price cycle of deflation, bubbles burst and real price points begin to unfold in a soaring downward deflation spiral.
Nations have virtually zero financial tools to plan for to offset and to recover or manage downward inflationary spirals as history has shown us in Japan and the GREAT DEPRESSION. World war is economically how nations rebalance accounts and reform inflationary spirals. Very undesired modeling.
Can we while we have time, invent tools and tactics in a new digital fiscal world to combat a massive asset bubble crash, and better manager the next deflationary spiral at a recession versus depression level globally? As an investment banker economist I think YES WE CAN and YES WE MUST but the think tank to do this task work, is not in place and no agency or committee is even working on the core problem.
The world elite class ( Super Money ) knows all this. They profit massively from the BUBBLE until the BUBBLE Crashes utterly. Then they use their wealth to profit massively from the asset deflation. Most inappropriately they alone profit massively from war. A growing community of SUPER WEALTH is seeing the process to rebalance core accounts globally as via a world war. They are planning for a “controlled global depression and a controlled world war”. This idea of a controlled “world war” in today’s dynamic world of super weapons and bioweapons the like of which the world has never used before are so beyond any control that the very idea of a “controlled world war” is itself a feature of some insanity. You can’t make deals and split up the world in some structural economic rebalancing thinking population itself is the enemy of core economics.
On population, the issue is education and only education. We squander brains by loading impossibly bad software on young minds. If we loaded superior software on super learners of today the outcome would be solutions, not problems. For example, GEODESIC DOMES can be constructed under the late engineer Bucky Fuller’s suggested model, to populate cities of millions in the oceans. All self-sustaining and environmentally contributing to the earth. Each city dumb is a park during fair weather and is underwater during storms having no storm damage, no earthquake damage, no environmental damage, no tsunami damage and mankind survives a meteor strike with 100 billion of a population while we move the earth and its life forms to the stars terraforming planets with our new knowledge. Humanity has unlimited capacity and resources if we THINK it all through.
What is broken is the historic financial core system model. Consider this:
- Competitive capitalism – is opaque – nontransparent – filled with secrets for elite super money advantages – consolidates wealth until 1% own more than 99% – and is a failed economic system inherited from feudalism. Too many are not educated are poor and sick and starving when all the resources to fix all that are right at hand. It’s a crime and a sin to fail to improve a failed system model.
- Communism and socialism are worse. The % of poor starving and sick are always larger and the freedom of individuals is always lower. This system model consolidates wealth where 1% own more than 99% and itself is a failed system model worse in many respects for the masses than competitive capitalism.
- COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM within a G 100 Economic Global Constitution of box top rules, is transparent, fully reporting, has no secrets, is self-correcting, precludes unwanted wealth consolidation, maximizes wealth circulations, precludes speculation oary bubbles, and removes speculation from markets and unfair trade practices from markets.
Competitive capitalism exists to advance mindless profits at any cost to institutional power and wealth and market consolidations.
Communism exists to consolidate power to the central state at all costs and to spiral wealth consolidation into state agency and elites at all costs to perpetuate the system.
COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM exists for maximum contribution to a community being served by all entities nations and private public sectors while making surplus or profits in the contribution super focus to the served community with maximize focus. Huge difference.
As Steve Jobs coined – the phrase – WE HAVE TO THINK DIFFERENT if we wish to have superior outcomes.
My book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION is the book of a voluntary movement into COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM for nations. The lawmakers are informed of the box top rules and methods for 12 laws to create the new COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM for nations. The book is now circulating in the world. Those interested in joining the revolution for humanity – we feel as it is core to the economic foundation – the final revolution for us all – to rise and grow into our full potential – just circulate the book to your community. FORM REDEPEMPTION CHAPTERS to vote for COOPERATIVE CAPITALISTIC candidates into office and in a single generation our revolution can and will change the world. For the good and for the better. IDEAS are unstoppable when they are the truth.
Competitive capitalism is a royal class of super-wealthy elites, that take each other’s castles over ( violently ) or by negotiation and threats – just as nobles did in feudalism with knights and weapons – only today the knights and weapons are hostile takeovers with law firms being the knights. I want the bigger castle. This is not being done for maximum contribution to communities served. This is being done for maximum mindless profit consolidation where the fantastically wealthy are addicted to even more consolidations of wealth under their power and control. This system is a flawed system is not good or healthy for people’s nations or the world. It always leads to world war which is fully preventable.
If we cooperate we all prosper together.
If we compete we all perish to together.
Only the elites and Super Wealth ( and not all of them ) will win the wars they are now preparing for.
I know you understand all this. But it is refreshing to have the core truth presented in clear compelling language is it not? Have you seen it all so clearly set forth anywhere else? If not share it for me. With your mail list. Send my URL out and ask folks to subscribe and join the revolution for the truth of it all.
In the end, what you read in the news is spin. All of it.
The truth is financial.
Who is paying for the Wallstreet Journal to be produced or the Washington Post? It is those dollars that are in charge. FOX is not IN CHARGE. If 60 advertisers pull out of the BILL REILY show because the most popular on-air host commanding 450 million dollars of yearly add revenue – has all that cash pull out in ten days – the advertisers paying for BILL RILEY command the agenda and BILL IS FIRED on the spot. BAM. It’s the money folks. The real news is what is the economics behind what your reading. Then you really know. Then you have the truth, not the spin.
So you have to pause and say – what is the financial aspects of this. BECAUSE that is what the lobby work is about that is what the special interest are doing. Following and tracking this is enormous work with teams reporting daily to supply content just for my blog. Which is why it is read by press media financial managers and a growing national leadership group of lawmakers worldwide.
When the really big stuff happens they click HERE to see – what is really going on out there. And we always tell the truth. The whole truth and our readers know and trust this truth. Never political always economic.
Our readers want a better world and collectively want to lead it. They are part of SUPER CHANGE. Part of human revolution made possible by education. By knowing and understanding the CORE SYSTEM TRUTH you never learn in school.
This helps you as a business owner entrepreneur to manage forward safer better business bets. It helps you protect your nest eggs. It helps you in a family and in workspace.
Which is our goal in fostering COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM as the final global system reform for nations?
Competitive capitalism and communism are forms of insanity and are so inefficient it is a sin against all of us the system models are protected and continued without reform. Upgrading these failed system models is the most important work of nations.
Deflation is a spiral started in the system with the second largest economic nation JAPAN in the 1980’s and never solved by JAPAN who failed to completely reform its system as a proper response – now the entire global system of Competitive Capitalism and Communism is locked in a DEFLATION DEATH SPIRAL ECONOMICALLY. This model typically ends with either a bursting of the credit bubble – or a super inflation before the credit bubble burst. When the bubble’s burst the deflation is moved to a depressison worldwide to rebalance accounts. Without a core system reform world war is how accounts are rebalanced historically. All your history is wrong. The cause of all world wars if financial and economic never political. The politics created system abuse when politics led economics versus economics leading politics. COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM self-corrects and precludes politics leading economics once and for all – forever assuring circulation so prosperity is shared appropriately starting with massive ongoing superior software reaching human brains. Lifelong education.
So today we reside in a failed economic system model creating the largest SUPER BUBBLE in human history made possible by fantastic leverage and digital trading outside regulatory oversights.
The bubble will burst.
Until it does though you are inside the longest boom cycle on recorded historic record with the highest upsides setting records. If that makes you feel safe and secure play on. If your seeing what I”m seeing – follow the advice we have presented in our blogs and create your own safe harbor.
Knowledge is power and you have better knowledge today.
Deflation. 11 Trillion dollars later with ten years of full court press all the thinkers and planners for the FED and the central government in America have failed to put inflation and Humpty dumpty back together again. THE POLICY HAS FAILED UTTERLY and a SUPER BUBBLE is what we have today. No one wants to halt the stampede over the cliff as so many are making so much for a second in time. They are drunk with the SUPER BUBBLE as they always are – see 1929.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the TRUTH on BRIGHT just for YOU Today my readers