Vitol, Glencore and Trafigura together trade more than 17m barrels of crude oil  the cost of everything and refined fuels every day, according to company statements and industry sources, handling daily volumes equivalent to more than half the Opec cartel’s output.

Their rapid expansion, up from a little over 10m barrels a day in combined oil volumes in 2014, underlines the rising influence and power of a trading industry that for decades tried to shun close scrutiny. Together with Gunvor and Mercuria, the other two top-five independent oil traders, they account for 22m barrels a day. Thats just the top FIVE FOLKS – which drowns OPEC in the world markets as 2017 insignifigent. Truly. The ball game has new market share rule books. 

We have reported to you today the OIL  market is about MARKET SHARE in 2017 and 2018. Market share is where those  22 million barrels a DAY are landing – to which customers – to which nations – on what terms of contracts long term and short term? Today Saudi – foolishly as we wrote last year and this – jawboned market speculators to drive prices up to above $ 50.00 for the space of less than a month. This silly failed price pollicy back fired as we said it would – were Saudi with prices plunging  has lost untold market share and invested billions to other OPEC member benefits to LOSE THEIR KINGDOM’S MARKET SHARE ( forever once its gone ). OPEC members want Saudi to continue to squander their wealth by subsidizing them to take further market share from Saudi. This fools game is going to SHATTER OPEC completely.

We warned you. Oil could plunge into the $ 30.00 and below  something range for an extended time. The world is DROWNING IN OIL as we have reported to you for years now. The right price will find its MARKET SHARE that is oil economics today. A new set of box top rules all about protecting market share. Saudi is a slow learner. How long before they see their policy is FAILED POLICY economically?

Opec has lost all control on the supply side. They no longer matter. AT ALL. Did you look at those top five trading 22 million barrels a day – now add in the next 50 leading traders. Where does OPEC matter in that market share placement machine?

Their own members are profiting as Saudi pays billions to allow other OPEC members to virtually STEAL market share and customer base from SAUDI who is paying them to do so. It is insane. Saudi can not:

  1. Drive producers to stop production
  2. Influence the world oversupply
  3. Determine price
  4. They can lose more of their market share
  5. Market share that will never return to Saudi

If Saudi extends the artificial price idea to rebalance supply by cutting their own profits and flows to the market – their own members will steal their market share. Russia has played Opec as if they were children. Profiting by the billions offering Saudi instability and using their windfall oil  money to bring down the Kingdom. Does Saudi not see the sword is double edged and the writing has their King’s name upon it?

So the insanity of oil oversupply in markets is not stoppable. Oil has gone from 115.00 a barrel to under 40 dollars a barrel in a finger snap of time. The speculative temporary bubble price for oil as never a market supply demand issue. The world is drowning in oil supply. There is more than enough oil to meet all demands. Oil right price is being driven by MARKET SHARE ECONOMICS and the rebalancing is tearing the foundation economics of SAUDI apart. We are confident this market share failed policy and hemorrhage is going to impact Saudi Aramco Offering IPO price in the markets – that may become one of the largest failed underwritings of all times. We’ll see.

Today policy is not on the side of OPEC. The future is a divided bitterly feuding OPEC fighting for market share while the BROKER INDUSTRY who really control market share today – over 22 million barrels a day they alone decide WHO GETS MARKET SHARE – is the new OPEC .

Opec is a dead on arrival concept in 2017 and giving it weight on energy investing is to risk a great deal. There is no real OPEC. Economically – it is every nation for themselves period. And Saudi is starting to see that clearly in their own wallet.

The Brokerage spiral is now the  MARKET SHARE WARS  which are fully  on and OPEC is divided and never to be united again. Saudi is losing the market share wars. New winners are rising including the USA.

OPEC is a joke economically and  no longer matter and the world market place knows that.

Oil the COST OF EVERYTHING – its a new ball game folks in 2017.

You now know why based on the data.


Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the oil lamp light on for your wallet …





Mnuchin is the head of the most powerful money machine on Earth the United States Treasury. Today Munchin is marching to the Trump ( et ) and immediately deflected the pain of NO GAIN on Obama Care into the EASE OF TAX REFORM.

The Ease of Tax reform?

Does one think the republicans who defected to the democrat side – the republicans who have more conservative views – more demanding views – of tax reform or any other legislation will now lock step like Nazis in Suits to vote for the Tax reform Package? Do you believe the fragile majority is, in fact, a myth? Do you believe the fragile majority has SHATTERED and the required votes to DO ANYTHING are just not present? Congress is as it has been for 25 years – dysfunctional. Locked into ideological bifurcations that have no resolution.

Does one think the TAX REFORM PACKAGE will be suddenly embraced by the democrats? Do you think twenty out of the republican camp will not vote for TRUMP further shattering the majority “illusion” of the election itself?

So the TRUMP MYTH has created a 10% equity lift since November of trillions of dollars in valuations – all based on change – massive immediate 2017 change – that would inspire business growth – investment – and job creation. None of that is happening nor does it appear that is likely to happen this year or even at all. We have called the rally a FOOLS Rally that will sucker punch grandma and school teachers and regular everyday folks like a blow to their gut when the reality sinks in.

The hope and the promise are not taking place. As the SUPER MONEY and their software that controls the world casino accommodates the ONE TRUTH – those who delay protecting their pay are going to have a bad hair day. First out wins. Those who delay – pay.

This run on the global market space on phony value is going to move beyond speculators to moderate as accounts rebalance. Said another way a BLOOD BATH is about to unleash. Remember you read we predicted this – precisely – to Spring 2017. Say since last summer if you scroll back in time – over and over again and again. Warning you all. Telling you what to do to SAFE HARBOR your nest egg out of harm’s way.

So now we follow Mr. Mnuchin’s other munchkins right down the yellow brick road on tax reform – as our next rabbit out of a hat – singing the song all the way down the path – follow the yellow – follow the yellow – follow the YELLOW BRICK ROAD – dancing and singing until those poppy fumes put us all the sleep and the WICKED WITCH of real economics allows us to wake up to reality where there is no yellow brick road any longer.

Mr. Mnuchin’s curtain is torn open by too ( the world press and hard data ) and the Congress is less likely to pass massive tax reform than they were Obamacare. The congress is fatally divided. The polarization records President Obama saw in his administration – as seldom ever seen in history – are now WORSE. Further a run on republicans – meaning a run on Trump support – is taking place as subgroups grow dissent against a Trump teamwork that excludes rather than includes the majority of congress in the first place.

Trump follows George Bush with a Congress culture – if you’re not with me your a terrorist against America. More and more reject such labeling and are flipping the finger to the Trump Team. Growing collaboration, growing cooperation versus competition – is huge work – involves enormous compromise – and requires a political skill the Trump Team may in fact lack – as a culture even with the best intentions.

So the Market we suspect will NOT BE AMUSED THIS WEEK. The SUPER MONEY is going to KNOW those slow to GO are going to SHOW loss. Protecting assets by being first before the worst is the market global March of SUPER MONEY. If you see a course correction in the FOOLS RALLY – you will know as they say in Alice and Wonderful and the feast of the oysters – THE TIME HAS COME. THE TIME HAS COME.

We suggest the attempt to make the DISASTER Of the Obama Care legislative loss to the Trump Administration this Friday a yawn versus a global SCREAM of agony – is historically naive. The markets get it. Trump’s agenda is NOT HAPPENING. Euphoric stock valuation is temporary insanity and those who delay protecting their own pay are going to have a very bad hair day. The first gets out before the worst. WHEN does THAT mindset become the course change? Watch . It is the old mantra – ask not for whom the bell tolls for with your money inside the FOOLS rally ….the bell tolls for thee.

So drink up. Buy into the spin. Sing out loud – FOLLOW THE YELLOW BRICK ROAD and put all your cash and money in.

I and others are out entirely and in all cash.

We’ll keep a light on for you.



PS: Nothing personal on Mr Mnuchin’s work and policy – economics – notes congress is fatally in grid lock. No new normal Folks that is the reality and the news. 




In political management,  one does some things and one does not do others. If one squanders political capital you can go politically bankrupt quickly.

Last week with a republican congress on its first big vote, the republicans defected in record numbers. 100% of democrats were set to vote against the TRUMP Obama care legislation they themselves passed a few years ago. The loss on this critical first big item was MASSIVE by the numbers. So they pulled it – they were forced by thier own hand to pull it.

The impression is:

  1. Trump fails to appreciate how congress works or how to get things done in congress a congress his party controls.
  2. Now an anti-trump republican group is growing. In congress and its powerful.
  3. I think Presidential legislation is going to have grave dysfunction in Congress which I’ve reported on in my blogs.
  4. I believe Congress authored legislation may get through but will Trump sign their stuff  or veto it as not his cup of tea? Uncertainity has no increased dramatically.
  5. The TRUMP euphoria creating the FOOLS Rally can become a bloodbath starting this week as the truth settles in.

Congress is going to remain dysfunctional.

Trump is unpopular with a 17% approval rating itself political capital exhausted into bankruptcy. To govern.

The IDEA that Trump would reset America economically is impossible without congress. Congress is not supporting the TRUMP game plan and IDEAS. His own party is not supporting Trump. That is now so CLEAR to the world and to America. A vast majority of American’s not the elecorial college LOVE THIS dysfunction. They are banking upon it.

The democates wish to DESTORY TRUMP and their first efforts worked – just let Trump destory himself.


It is early in the game to be sure. Trump is a quick learner and I respect his ability to coordinate inside a team of experience and re-tool against the political box top rules he frankly is still learning. The idea TRUMP would destroy the establishment and rebalance the establishment is itself naive. SUPER MONEY controls the politics in all nations. I don’t see THAT changing anytime soon do you? Can Trump learn to be a GREAT AMERICAN POLITICIAN as if he can not learn THAT how does TRUMP make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN?

Trillions have been bet on market run-ups to all-time record high’s since last October based on the TRUMP EFFECT. This umbrella is filled with holes now and the acid financial rain is making everyone in America very wet indeed. Trillions of dollars are now on the wrong side of the economic BET.

We know Trump has LOST CONTROL of his own party in Congress. That is a fact.

The style and methods did not only NOT MAKE A GREAT DEAL they shattered any deal making at all. THAT is a FACT.

The loss is made worse by expectation. The rookie Trump could easily have set expectations much lower with so much preservation of POlITCAL CAPITAL. How? For example, he would have said – I have no idea if this first new model will gain the traction to begin the process of correcting Obama Care but I have hope it is the start of something that will lead to a final smart outcome. Anything like THAT.

To suggest – you either vote my way or you get Obama Care forever – was the tone. They chose Obama Care. Like the majority of congress flipping the bird to President Trump.

The fall out is worse. Now the idea – the HOPE AND PROMISE – of a functional republican congress is lost. Congress sent the word back. Congress IS IN CHARGE Mr. President and you work with Congress on OUR TERMS of you get more of the same.

That is the political capital of Monday. As you all know Trump doesn’t take any threat or lesson and say – lesson learned. He will step in front of it.

He has the public to think about.

The public is thinking – Trump said he was wired tapped to derail attention from serious charges of lying to his team related to RUSSIA influencing the election – which everyone knows they did. They do that everywhere. Nothing new there.

Trump has now serious inquiries that are SERIOUS about the wiretap false claim as the RUSSIAN ISSUE has not even started YET.

How will Trump make up with congress? Can he? Will he?

How dysfunctional will congress be? We suggest VERY DYSFUNCTIONALly.

What real legislation and economic growth can unfold without Congress? Any? Really?

One thing is CERTAIN from all this which effects the FOOLS RALLY. Any notion of financial explosions of growth from Trump is not going to take place soon or fast or have any effect THIS YEAR. Soon HALF THE YEAR will be GONE.

So the trillions on the wrong side of this bet are going to protect their capital. Soon we think.

When that happens…


Berny Dohrmann – waiting for the OTHER SHOE TO FALL – I’m off to the EU





China ended its annual political convention with a PRIORITY for control of financial system core risk. This itself defines how BAD the risk IS.

The first volley is to punish banks for dealing in shadow banking. To keep up the loan and profit velocity, China financial institutions are using assets the central banks increasingly is disallowing. The unintended CONSEQUENCE is that banks sell off assets. Some lenders went into default positions ( as the assets they used as core resource were disqualified ) and the central bank was FORCED to inject liquidity into those systems. Interactive bank lending and bond price sets are soaring.

My prior Blog reporeted on Shadow banking and its effects due to digital circumvention of fiscal regulations.

One target was and has been over two years cooling the SUPER BUBBLE of the China housing market – skyrocketing within unsustainable valuation’s much like the rest of the world experienced earlier in this decade. Planners fear  SUPER CRASH in the system.

Debt is the issue. Downpayments on second and third home loans have now been substantially increased. Lenders are engaging SHADOW BANKING to resolve the issue in virtual and digital joint ventures that defy regulators on the conventional books. The Chinese central bank is engaging old tools and old tactics to ratchet down the property SUPER BUBBLE and the CREDIT SUPER BUBBLE.

However these policies – to date – have failed. The real estate market is soaring and the bubble is in a spiral that has no end in sight in 2017. The CONTROL OF RISK is including new punishing tools to banks who fail to follow central planner directions. The unintended consequence here, is that banks dump bonds and core assets to secure liquidity against credit controls, and STOP MAKING LOANS. The economic break is also unwanted.

The unfolding CHINESE experiment is new financial history. No nation has engaged this level of debt to income ratio, nor had the majority of its capital circulation occur in digital space, outside regulatory ease of conventional review assessment and control. Lacking real time digital assessment tools – nations including China – are behind real time events and when they review the issues the CRISES has already occurred. Will the Central Banks in China continue to furnish unlimited liquidity to assure the system does not lock up? Can the upside down pyramid of bad loans shown as good and current assets, against real assets liquidity and income continue to wobble and remain in place?

Will a SUPER CRASH occur via contagion and panic in China?

That remains the 2017 and 2018 risk related to China economics.

We have long warned that China economics are not sustainable at 300% debt to GNP to drive economics. We also have reported that there are serious asset class SUPER BUBBLES in China economics. Finally. we have warned the trillions in non performing loan bad debt must work out of the system which will create a rebalancing of accounts.

Kicking the ball down the street as leadership does year to year makes it all worse when the SUPER CRASH hits.

Historically such economies always result in a  SUPER CRASH.

We continue to hope for the best as we are concerned for the worst.

Berny Dohrmann – China First Quarter Review – Just IN March 2017

PS: Off to the EU tomorrow to work with heads of state.




Aitan Goelman, a partner of the Zuckerberg Law firm and THE FORMER OBAMA head of enforcement for the multi TRILLION DOLLAR class of assets known as structured assets, which includes the derivative markets, the swap markets, counter party agreements and settlements, and much of the new ETF market space, is NOT a HAPPY CAMPER. Aitan resigned to make way for the new TRUMP TEAM, ripping out the guts of the experience at the top who really knows what is going on in world markets.

Aitan suggests there is a MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MISCONDUCT in futures, options, swaps and related derivative markets, that goes undetected.

OF the 350 MILLION  trading records landing on the CFTC ( not counting a larger number at the SEC ) desk every single DAY – the CFTC is under funded to data mine and prosecute the criminals. In two cases Aitan failed to bring last year in his last year the two cases if he brought the criminals to court would have consumed a full year of his operating budgets for enforcement across the landscape.

Lets look at this issue in the following summary way to begin:

  1. The CFTC and the SEC have in “after inflation dollars” had a net DECLINE in their funding budgets after Frank Dodd. Said another way the two agencies were given the largest new mandate to regulate financial markets by Congress, without a doubling of their budget that is required in order to execute the congressional call to regulate.
  2. The crash of 2007 took place in large part because stake holder trading that drives economies – investment in plant infrastructure venture growth and jobs – is not 2.7 trillion a year – slightly up from 2008 – while speculative and price manipulative trading that adds zero to economies – driven by no regulation – and leverage – is 440 trillion annually. Manipulating price is now a larger market than demand and supply economics.
  3. The laws regulating industry were created when trades where in paper fifteen years ago and cleared by traditional movement of paper. Today in only a decade the trading is digital with software platforms manipulating markets for which regulators have no OPPOSING Software.
  4. The laws are all LOCAL the trades are all IN THE CLOUD. No regulation.
  5. The agencies of nations are in software wars using old obsolete software that fails to review the data in real time and to block abuse in the system.

Goelman the most knowledgable regulator to hit the DIGITAL PATCH yet  saiid the CFTC empowered by Frank Dodd to regulate the rampant speculation, lacks the funding, and software and IT manpower to review the 350 trades a day landing on their desk and to take action against the global abuse and greed.

Goelman stated this week that:


Lets look at this in plain english. The price of EVERYTHING is the target of SUPER MONEY. Following the crash of largely Real Estate that stopped LIQUIDITY and account CLEARING in financial systems between nations and account balances, where did the fantastic POOLS of SUPER MONEY GO? The first generation of software had create new markets. Structured assets. These assets could manipulate the PRICE OF EVERYTHING for the first time since the depression when the abuse took place from credit pouring into speculation trading. Today software makes such abuse of the system much greater than the depression years of the 1920’s.

The commodity Modernization Act passed by a UNANIMOUS ACT OF CONGRESS ( see 60 minutes clip on that ) tore down all the depression laws. Now your grandmother’s deposits in banks, owned by investment banks, can and would be invested in price manipulation ( speculations for profits ) upon the PRICE OF EVERY ASSET CLASS. Commodities, corn sugar wheat rice everything – and currencies – and trade itself plus all stocks and bonds.

Said in English – the trading in a side bet – just a bet like in Vegas – as to WHICH WAY a future price might go – is controlled by SUPER POOLS in structured assets or derivatives. Think of derivatives as just AN AGREEMENT in which fantastic money makes bets and pays off on these bets up or down in a time frame. The new asset class is now driven by software. The software can move prices up and down and regulatory agencies have lost control of digital trading.

Stake holder trading – buying a stock or a bond – is regulated by local agencies like the SEC. Commodities and derivative agreements by the Commodity Future Trading Commission CFTC both needing a doubling of their budget with regular growth annually to keep pace with the SUPER MONEY investment to GO AROUND the regulations.

The GO AROUND is largely achieved as LEGAL THEFT.

Legal THEFT takes place under NEW LAW via shadow banking – which is off shore institutions, commercial clearing firms – trading platforms and firms, dark pools, and a host of developing each year new ENTITIES designed to reduce tax and maximize profit by BETTING into CASINO CAPITALISM.

In the CASINO CAPITALISM the software manipulates prices of EVERYTHING which has done two things in a decade since the dot.bomb speculation and meltdowns and the crash 2008 to 2010.

  1. Casino Capitalism adds zero to growth of economies as capital circulation is inside th e casino profit making versus stake holder longer term investing.
  2. Casino Capitalism creates a system abuse serial driven by fantastic leverage and credit – say a bank deposit dollar may trade fifty dollars or 50 to 1 on leverage – illegal under local laws – but possible inside the GLOBAL CANSIO – facilitating ever larger asset classes to buy back stocks, manipulate price, and add zero to real growth of economics. The regulatory frame work has lost control of the digital market place in only a decade.

Goelman reported last week his one regret on his watch as TOP REGULATOR in America was that the massive amount of abuse is not having action taken to stop the enormous spiral of speculations.

Think of scale on regulatory mission. The Frank Dodd regulations attempted to expand the CFTC regulatory oversight, from a 50 TRILLION dollar futures market place into a 400 TRILLION DOLLAR new asset class market space it is charged to regulate WITH a huge decrease in the CFTC budget. The CFTC charged to develop tools and new trained experts to regulate ever changing market asset classes ( agreements ) required a doubling and tripling of budget.

But Doff Frank passed with a net cut back in the regulatory budget. The SEC and the CFTC need a DOUBLING OF THEIR BUDGET which CEO SPACE is lobbying for. However the financial lobby makes our work like spit into the wind as the financial lobby from the CASINO is now the largest voice in all national capitols.

The laws are local. The trades are in the cloud unregulated. The PRICE OF EVERYTHING is fully manipulated for greed today.

We have suggested for five years that the solution is:


Technology requires the largest RE-THINK of regulatory frame work since the Great Depression. Without that COOPERATION between all G 100 nations the platform to regulate will continue to fail. The end result due to system abuse debt and leverage within the speculation BUBBLE is always SUPER CRASH – world depression and world war.

If capital circulation were redirected into stake holder investing the ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS ECC  could return depression laws as a firewall to unwanted system speculations – where:

  1. Short selling is a crime.
  2. Future side betting is a crime.
  3. Capital would have equal access to stake holder bets
  4. World trade would be fair and full partnership for all nations
  5. The insanity of the present CASINO model would stop by law

If the CLOUD digital CASINO CAPITALISM continues the entire system remains at risk. The largest HIDDEN TAX is paid by all of the peoples of the world and they have no clue.

Price is manipulated in the world CASINO.

Elite SUPER MONEY is 1% of the population and controls and owns more world wealth than 99%. This is unwanted as a system model for economics and it is always inherently unstable economically.

The elite SUPER MONEY in the system is the FEW against the many or upside down economics. As the SUPER MONEY controls the POLITICS ( law making ) the Casino is insulated by the laws that protect them. Frank Dodd has so many LOOP HOLES that the law does not apply to THEM. Legal Theft is constructed into the laws.

As the core issues are economic and complex the public has no clue.

This is the SOURCE versus the symptom of all problems in the global market place. Goelman suggested looking at a 1.6 billion dollar SEC enforcement budget, over a smaller asset class group, versus a CFTC regulating the 400 trillion speculation industry, at only 250 million in total annual budget is insane.

The spiral of capital to manipulate prices is endless. There is no regulatory frame work that is working. REGULATIONS ARE BROKEN as the market has gone digital. The SEC and the CFTC need double their budgets because the dollars we spend are repaid at 10 to 1 in profits as they develop NEW TOOLS & NEW TACTICS – TO REBALANCE ACCOUNTS for economic versus speculation market re-sets. The idea of giving these two agencies new mandates without massive new funding is folly.

The world system at core is broken.

Without the largest RE-THINK of the regulatory frame work the system globally will fail. Due to system abuse. When the leading regulator in the world tells you this week his regret on leaving is the LEGACY OF “MASSIVE” ABUSE taking place in the core market of trading derivatives – futures – swaps – and related asset classes – criminal abuse – Ponzi scheme abuse – all unchecked in the overall market at numbers that when the musical chair stops – which is a WHEN not an IF event – the system fails world wide.

You can feel Goelman’s frustration to as he defines, as top regulator, the financial system IS broken, the regulations are NOT working and the SYSTEM lacks the software tools and enormous upgrading to get current and stay ahead of the software wars in financial trading.

The world markets are now a giant CASINO controlled by one SUPER POOLS software against and another without oversight YOU thought was present but it is in fact NOT OCCURRING.

Keep in mind this is the CAUSE the SOURCE Of SUPER CRASH – the digital trading AGE has outgrown the regulatory frame work and no one at the G 100 is making a call for a REGULATORY RE FRAME TO REBALANCE TRADING ACCOUNTS.

This then is the CAUSE of SUPER CRASH at its source – a lack of WILL to take on the Super Money.

Berny Dohrmann – Explaining the truth behind market phony price states