OPEC – IS IT FINALLY NOW FALLING UTTERLY APART
Opec Members have simply had it with Saudi and Opec failed policies. So lets look at the failed Saudi OPEC Policies over the period 2014 to now:
- 2014 oil is $ 120 dollars a barrel due to cartel manipulation of price.
- American Shale Oil rose to shatter OPEC monopoly and influence bringing cheaper easier to refine crude to markets and stealing OPEC customer market share.
- To crush the American Oil Shale industry OPEC led by Saudi turned on the spigot to all time record flood the market with oil. This shattered the price to 39.00 dollars from 120 dollars a price SUPER CRASH of oil now in massive over supply of demand ( a failed policy ) – we are talking a crash of almost 90% of the price of 2014 by failed Saudi policy.
- This created a lower profit for shale from America which rose from 2014 from two million barrels a day to 10 million barrels a day from 2015 to 2017 – a short time to become more influential than OPEC. Today Saudi cuts supply in November by 600,000 barrels a day at their target price of 60.00 dollars ( which utterly failed ) losing three billion dollars a day to force their own customers to leave.
- Russia and other OPEC members are losing market share to customers buying now from America and non OPEC producers who supply draw’s OPEC. Their failed policy to REBALANCE OIL MARKETS which means to manipulate a phony supply demand price cartel tax on the peoples of the world – is seen for what it is – criminal taxation of the development nations of the earth. OPEC is shattered and shattering on pure economics.
- OPEC members are cheating. No OPEC member wants to follow the idiot Barkindo and his failed Saudi jaw bone with dentures and no teeth as OPEC no longer controls sufficient supply to do anything but to pay a trillion dollars – which they have to lose their own market share.
- OPEC sought to CRUSH SHALE PRODUCTION by lowering price so they could not producer. American invention used technology to make profits at the lower price and took the oil drilling rigs and shoved that rig right up Opec’s economic ass hole. Which is bleeding red ink in all Opec nations. They are in the RED and bleeding red ink if they subscribe to opec membership and follow the Barkindo idiot savant economic plan of the most hated oil minister in 100 years. Saudi has lost the war by failed policy.
The market knows this.
The market is smart.
The market knows the MARKET SHARE WAR has been won by America and non OPEC member production.
Today – Barkindo on his prayer rug – blinked before Allah and the entire world. Making the King of Saudi Arabia look even more enfeebled than he is. We caution the IPO coming from SAUDI is going to end up in falling market share and falling prices and failed policy the worst IPO loser of the century. Watch as time passes on that item.
So today what took place that changed everything? Again look at the history.
Barkindo oil minister sets up a failed plan to crush American oil Shale Production.
Last WEEK not sometime in the distant future the Saudi King from Russia and Barkindo the idiot economic failure for Saudi and Opec – stated in the press – WE HAVE NO CONCERNS ABOUT AMERICAN OIL SHALE PRODUCTION.
Today a week later what does the PANIC we told you was REAL in OPEC tell you?
TODAY Barkindo SAID – TO OUR FRIENDS IN AMERICA SHALE PRODUCTION ( WE TIRED TO CRUSH OUT OF BUSINESS IN 2015 2016 AND 2017 WITH ABSOLUTE RUTHLESSNESS ) – HEY COME ON – JOIN US TO REBALANCE OIL AND CUT BACK SO WE CAN GET THE HIGHER PRICES WE WANT CARTEL MANIPULATION ON VERSUS MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN FREE MARKETS THAT AMERICA STANDS FOR. HEY COME ON JOIN US YOUR ENEMY. CUT BACK AS WE HAVE NO BULLETS OR OPTIONS LESS. AND IF YOU DO NOT JOIN US – WE THE RED INK GOING BANKRUPT NATIONS PRODUCING – WE WILL DO SOMETHING” DRASTIC IN 2018 SO YOU BETTER JOIN US – WITH THAT THREAT LIKE A TRUMP TWEET ON THE TABLE. HE WE ARE NOT IN UTTER STAMPEDE PANIC MODE WHERE OUR MEMBERS ARE ALL LEAVING AND OPEC IS BREAKING UP BUT OUR LAST CARD IS HEY AMERICA WILL YOU JOIN US AND GIVE UP FREE MARKET VICTORY TAKING OUR CUSTOMERS FROM US FOREVER AND RETURN THEM TO US AND STOP TAKING YOUR BILLIONS WHILE WE LOSE OUR BILLIONS – IS THAT OK AND WILL YOU DO THAT TODAY FOLKS?
NOW Barkindo is an absolute idiot economically. He has cost OPEC its entire forward membership. OPEC IS FALLING APART. Members are going to leave to preserve their economics and their economic market share. IF they don’t leave they will lose market share ( at any price ) and never get that market share back.
Nations and customers are FURIOUS at the manipulation. They do not want REBALANCING of Energy at 120 dollars a barrel by artificial greedy manipulation of the few against the many. They OPEC members need to pressure market share – making profits at any price by selling more not less oil.
Oil is GOING TO BE IN SURPLUS and Saudi has lost the market share wars. They are going bankrupt at todays’ price due to their internal budgets, failure to crash those budgets when oil price crashed, and they now long term must adjust – and if the continue to cut back by billions a day – they accelerate their own bankruptcy as OPEC members. That is economics 101.
Today OPEC blinked.
Barkindo on his prayer rug asked Allah to inspire America ( Christians by the way ) to STOP SHALE OIL PRODUCTION which is doing what?
- Shoving up OPEC’s ass for trying to destroy the American industry.
- Beating OPEC at their own game and trashing OPEC on the score board.
- Controlling global market price splitting oil markets Into two prices – phoned OPEC pricing at 57 dollars a barrel down from 59 and American pricing at 49 dollars a barrel dropping from 54 for a day or two.
- Raising oil market share to 10 million a barrel and rising to 20 million a barrel a day and OPEC knows that – OPEC knows America has the largest oil reserves on earth making OPEC look like a dying lake.
- American Oil Shale industry is making the dollar stronger – rebalancing unfair trade with the world in the American trade export accounts and fast and forever taking MARKET SHARE from OPEC with easier to refine oil and cheaper oil and this victory for America is endless.
Asking a FREE TRADE NATION to cartel manipulate prices to penalize the development world from China to Africa for the advantage of some Gulf economic failures trying to monopolize oil like the 1970’s embargo – is not repeatable. Turning oil off would only make America absolutely dominant in market share. THE NON OPEC MEMBERS are prospering at the enormous cost of the FEW AGAINST THE MANY – the failed economic policy of OPEC since 2014 and before frankly.
OPEC has failed in all its models.
OPEC had its opportunity for success and by its own policy has set its people in a struggle now economically that will not be easy to get out of and will consume decades to REBALANCE not oil but their own economies. Russia needs to DEPART FROM OPEC for one reason. SURVIVAL and the prosperity driven by its own return to market share trashing the relationship with an economic child Barkindo who has bankrupt ideas bankrupt IP and today showed panic on his prayer rug with his global admission of utter total failure for the Royal Family.
If I where the Kings son and heir apparent I’d use the phrase from Alice and Wonderland Barkindo off with your head. How many trillions does one man cost a nation and his failed team and advisers?
We offered to set them on the right path. We hand carried proposals to the heir. But no one listened and now we have the failure at such extreme panic that OPEC ‘begs on its knees” for AMERICA to cut back and join OPEC.
Now this causes the market share war and market markets to simply laugh over two martinis lunches from New York to Hong Kong to London. The press and comedians are going to have a field day with this one. I hope this blog reaches Saturday Night Live writers – hey send it to them.
Barkindo one man has made OPEC a joke to the world.
Barkindo one man has destroyed OPEC influence and relevance to oil markets.
Barkindo has shattered OPEC confidence its only membership glue.
Barkindo has OPEC members leaving in droves as you will see in 2018.
Barkindo destroyed OPEC.
Barkindo one man announced the end of OPEC today with his prayer rug on his knee plea to American shale Producers to please oh please cut back to rebalance ( manipulate price for our cartel profit against the world ) and can you do that today as we are bleeding to death over here at OPEC.
There is no tweet – no moron comment – no history like today with this one man Barkindo who will shatter CONFIDENCE in the ARAMCO underwriting and IPO in free fall pricing like oil itself. To say the plans of a nation are destroyed and shattered by only one man is to understand the failure of Barkindo policy to oil markets.
He rolled the dice and he lost.
America gutted him and OPEC intestines are falling onto the pavement and its 120 degree’s over there.
Barkindo is a moron and a loser in classic economics so predictable from each step by economics 101 and any text book. This is not rocket science.
So OPEC customers want to pay less not more for oil.
OPEC customers are furious the cartel wishes to tax them for their own profit account.
Opec customers have choice now and do not need OPEC now or in the future.
OPEC customers are strategically buying around OPEC and moving supply long term and now short term to NON OPEC suppliers.
The HUGE WINNER of the MARKET SHARE WARS with OPEC hammering them all along that path is AMERICA.
The United States of America is NOT going to JOIN OPEC or HELP OPEC and only an idiot would do what Barkindo the moron did today – which is a public display of ABSOLUTE OPEC PANIC as they free fall beyond any control and have no end in sight how to repair their own internal budget as customers are leaving them now as a RUN on the OPEC BANK.
The longer members oil bankers stay with Barkindo and the OPEC OIL BANK the more they will lose depositors running on their accounts. So the way to secure oil banker deposits is to publicly announce you are LEAVING OPEC and focusing on your customer services at market prices satisfying customer need not Barkindo need.
The longer you stay in the failed OPEC OIL BANK the greater the velocity of market share RUN ON YOUR BANK will become because your OPEC BANKING CUSTOMERS are FURIOUS at your interest charges for your product and are all moving to full oil banking services with far lower interest charges for the future.
Barkindo its economics.
So today was the final PANIC. PANIC is public.
Everyone knows. EVERYONE.
OPEC has lost its CORE VALUE AS A CARTEL and now BEING an OPEC member is toxic for your nation and future. Day by Day you are loosing so much MONEY until you announce to stop the RUN ON YOUR OWN BANK you are leaving the TOXIC FAILED OIL BANK now sinking into historic oblivion and obsolesce.
Barkindo the moron failed to understand that economics always rebalances from market manipulation and abuse. Debeers if fighting mass manufacturing of perfect man made diamonds – always plenty and never rare with prices only controlled by cartel. Now price is beyond cartel control as Diamond markets deflate and rebalance. Oil is rebalancing to economic market forces of plentiful supply as the earth frats and craps oil and gas – there is no scare supply. Or costly supply.
ENERGY the COST OF EVERYTHING has taxed nations to the bone by artificial greed and cartel pricing. OIL “IS” rebalancing and OPEC has nothing to do with it. Saudi the “swing producers” are loosing 600,000 barrels a day – where those customers are moving to America – and Saudi never gets that business back. They are not rebalancing anything but their own bankruptcy and budget.
Oil is in free fall as we reported.
OPEC is going to shatter and oil price is going to range 35 to 45 dollars.
OPEC pricing is dead on arrival.
Barkindo soon will be too we suspect. One man costing trillions to oil bankers from a totally failed policy. When does the money hold Barkindo responsible and install a customer service market share minister as the OPEC model is failed.
It is every nation for itself as oil bankers and OPEC members are such losers for staying in the most failed cartel in history. INCREASINGLY OPEC oil bankers are seen as pure criminals trying to regain a tax on the poor and the development nations taxing billions trying to rise to full partnership but unable to do so because a few profited from 120 dollar a barrel of energy cost for their own greed at the enormous cost of nations developing as ENERGY IS THE COST OF EVERYTHING ELSE.
Today solar – wind – tidal – and natural gas which burns clean and makes lower electric cost – is with atomic power – fueling the world energy grid away from oil and more and more transportation is moving from oil to electric as demand peaks are going to fall off a cliff and oil can never be manipulated by OPEC or any supply cartel as a crime really – because today the supply oil bankers are not OPEC members and are the dominant and rising market share retiring OPEC oil banker market share the longer they force their own customers to RUN ON THEIR OIL BANK.
So now you know the truth of 2014 to October of 2017 when Barkindo on his beggger prayer rug threw in the towel for his 82 year old King and stated – HEY AMERICA YOU CUT BACK so we can rebalance ( criminally move prices to high so we can stay out of bankruptcy as nations ) and America – having been hit by economic motors and missiles from OPEC for years – watched the economic mushroom cloud over Barkindo – had a good laugh and invested as never before in MARKET SHARE SUPPLY GROWTH to utterly run on OPEC OIL MEMBER BANKS and destroy what remains of their final existence.
Barkindo gambled and lost the entire war.
The United States is so much STRONGER at 3% growth now rising to even higher – because of our THANK YOU to Barkindo the moron economists and oil minister that personally DESTROYED OPEC as we reported here – for some time with data and the press fails to report the news with OIL advertising and underwriting for all press the ultimate spin to information on the earth.
Environmentally the one and sole cause of CLIMATE CHANGE.
Killing life on earth for greed and profit.
Being slowly retired.
Market supply demand and customer service define oil markets from NON OPEC membership today.
Those who leave OPEC will prosper.
Those who remain will be in economic pain that becomes unimaginable.
Economics leading politics or politics leading economics.
Economics always wins.
Barkindo and his tribe always lose.
Today OPEC is one word – LOSER !
Berny Dohrmann – You can read the tea leaves properly now on OPEC
SAUDI ARABIA LOOSING THE POWER TO TAX THE PEOPLES OF THE EARTH
Opec led by Saudi Arabia is like.a sword fish fighting for its life with a deep sea fisher men like approach where the sword fish on its tail fighting for its life ( OPEC ITSELF ) throws its stomach out of its mouth so great is its effort to survive in the sea it used to know. Versus the new economic hook OPEC is now caught on ( crashing market share ). Loosing massive market share forever from the GULF and paying to lose it. How long will it take for smart OPEC suppliers to see the tragic economics of a failed SAUDI policy. BACK TO THE FUTURE? Far from it. OPEC IS DEAD like the sword fish slowing being reeled in to be butchered.
Opec was 20 years ago the high 70 % of world oil supply.
Today Opec is only a magical 30 % of world oil supply. And falling.
OPEC has one forward future. EVERY NATION FOR THEMSELVES and a full utter break up of OPEC. SHORT THAT MODEL. DO THE MATH. GEO OIL SUPPLY is in SUPER CHANGE and has changed more in 24 months than 24 years and the pace of discovery Trump and others opening never ending new supply as demand growth moderates on all charts and stalls – South China Sea to US coastal finds – OPEC margin of supply is falling like NIAGRA falls and the super money is betting on OPEC BREAK UP today. You heard that first here.
The nail in the coffin. Failed Saudi Arabia POLICY where OPEC Members PAY BILLIONS by cutting back to have their market share stolen from them at their own loss. ECONOMIC INSANITY as a policy. HOW LONG BEFORE NATIONS GET THE MATH MODEL?
During is MONOPOLY MANIPULATION YEARS Opec created a ruthless HIDDEN TAX upon the economies of all nations and the peoples of all nations. This HIDDEN TAX for 20 years was the most distorting economics ( as oil IS the cost of EVERYTHING – because it makes fuel for crop transports so we and livestock an eat – it makes pesticides without which half the worlds crops fail – it makes transportation containers and medicine delivery systems from IV tubes to syringes and of course it makes fuel we just burn up forever to move around versus other options and we burn it up to make electricity ). As the price of oil reached 100.00 creating the largest WEALTH TRANSFER of nations in a single generation – all the while the world is drowning in fossil fuels the earth simply is farting out year to year – and the impoverishment of nations who over decades could not prosper due to OPEC manipulated phony oil prices. Their % of market share allowed them to do this while no nation went to war with them given the oil firms that lobby nations made huge partner profits on destroying a generation globally. Fiscally.
The largest sin of modern times has been the manipulation of oil prices by a cartel.
Nations lost decades of prosperity with wealth transfers to the GULF that imbalanced all world economies at great harm to the core system of nations and the world. A small number of elites of SUPER WEALTH became fantastically more wealthy through policies of the FEW AGAINST THE WELFARE OF THE MANY in all nations including their own long term. Why does the Gulf Wealth end with 40% youth unemployment? With massive impoverishment with the FEW are so fantastically consolidation their wealth privilege advantage and powers over the FEW. How is that GOOD? How is that RIGHT? How is that of Allah or any God? How is that not why it is – a form of insanity. Competition is a form of insanity where all diversity of class and variety between humans is punished. SANE BRAINS are COOPERATIVE with zero competitive thought where all variety between humans is CELEBRATED versus punished. Only insanity creates this economic damage to the entire world system for the FEW AGAINST THE MANY. Competition is the thought form of insanity – learn this if you learn one thing from reading my blog over time.
As the mistake OPEC Made in their GREED MACHINE and MONEY GLUT engourging themselves thinking it would never not ever end – at 120 dollar per barrel oil prices “END” – lasted for some years – a blip in time – the world elevated supply globally until the % Opec controlled globally was less than 35%. Today Oil has fallen from $ 120.00 a barrel oil to low 40’s last week or over 70% in a matter of 36 months. IS ANYONE SEEING THE CHART HERE? The biggest fall recent falls since OPEC CUT BACK SUPPLIES WHICH WERE TOTALLY MADE UP BY NON OPEC SUPPLIERS AND MORE .
During this loss of all advantage they once enjoyed by creating unsustainable market share advantage – the market share shifted. Today Opec has lost 70% of their market share as the price of oil REBALANCED outside MONOPOLY and SPECULATOR INFLUENCE.
In the old 20 year old of OPEC market share dominance, speculators could bid the price of oil upwards or to any price by taking forward positions in oil. Today the issues related to forward OIL Price revolve around:
- Ever declining market share for OPEC members, now picking up incredible momentum by utterly failed economic policy of OPEC to stop their delivery of falling market share – while their massive % of supply in NON OPEC supply % advances their MARKET SHARE to % diversity OPEC can never – not ever – reclaim. As this MARKET SHARE chart advances staying LONG in OIL is a financial death march for billions. Why do they do it? Speculators wish to return to their profit making market manipulation days and failed to appreciate the rapid time shift to MARKET SHARE or that the NEW OIL PRICE model is MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE and OPEC is loosing all of theirs forever.
- Today the day before MOTHERS DAY Opec aggressively seeing Oil sliding toward the 39.00 Dollar Range which Oil will pass through soon in my prediction – CUT MARKET SHARE TO ASIA. Oil rose a bit Thursday. ASIA will shift MARKET SHARE buying within the GLOBAL TRADE WAR taking place today. As they make this shift to the 70% of oil suppliers that are NON OPEC you will see OPEC market share move toward the 20% range from 70% only a blip in time ago. Their planning investment and modeling is FAILED ECONOMICS and those advising OPEC have cost those nations including Russia a trillion dollars in wealth and climbing.
- The supply of oil is soaring world wide. The on line supply from growing drilling rig counts for immediate market share shifting a trend going on for 20 years – has crushed OPEC who made every possible mistake trying to extend a model that died 25 years ago and will never rise from the dead.
- Opec Nations are growing in debt and operate in the RED INK fiscally. They can not survive as they once were budgeting within 40 to 30 dollar price range. Today deep sea oil and shale oil are profit making at 25 a barrel and with new technology and AI it may drop lower than that – there is no come back for oil.
- World demand for oil is changing and moderating and the growth of demand models have all been wrong and the shallowing of demand with soaring non OPEC supply as in record 10 million a barrel a DAY supply of sweet crude from the USA is taking market share from OPEC forever – now shifting to the US dollar which will soar because of the wealth under the dollar from the largest oil reserves that make OPEC look like losers. They ARE Losers in the board room.
- The hidden tax on the peoples and nations of the world are forever rebalancing wealth world wide.
- OPEC has FOREVER lost any control to manipulate prices and its public PR jaw bone bludgeons to the market only make speculators money on the 72 up and downs as the markets always roars back to REAL SUPPLY and REAL DEMAND.
The price of oil will go down down down like ALICE in the Rabbit hole – watch. Remember you heard this in 2015 2016 and 2017 HERE and you made a ton if you followed our reporting which you always hear here FIRST. We reported on why Comey was fired. Then all the PRESS of the world were filled up with our BLOG news. We reported on OIL and the price fell next day.
So today – OPEC plays a FAKE NEWS CARD that is cutting back ASIA on Oil by more than they said earlier. That is a lie as SAUDI production this year is UP over their agreements – so where are they moving that surplus ? They are not stupid as they cheat on their own membership. No hand knows what the other hand is doing.
The world is in MARKET SHARE WARS or TRADE WARS. This creates the nightmare of all nations DEFLATION ECONOMICS. This creates a SUPER CRASH ( eventually ) and a world depression and world war typically. Which we think nations are preparing for as their debts are no longer sustainable and you all know that if you do any math on it at all. My readers don’t buy into so called NEWS presented for ENTERTAINMENT and what is known as PACKET WEALTH 0r viewer replies to ADS in their own FAKE NEWS WARS to keep EYE BALLS on every growing number of channels. Or to get liberal – middle and right groups and far left and far right groups divided into their own channels and slamming those views to keep those eye balls to ever buy MINDLESS CONSUMER CRAP.
News real information is on line. The smart crowd of all political belief’s wants REAL NEWS and the TRUTH and they’ll filter that news into their own action. Investors ( our CEO tribe and their investment houses and press ) who dominate this blog readership world wide in over 140 nations – want REAL NEWS and the TRUTH reading this blog for over 30 years. Sharing this blog with awake readers of their tribes who we seek to serve tirelessly within our economic research. We report data – investment banking economic data – without any political agenda of any kind. Ever.
So OPEC is beyond STUPID and we can not believe PUTIN is allowing this unless he pays lip service to cut backs and is selling like crazy to protect RUSSIA Market share – why would they PAY BILLIONS ( being totally broke ) to FOREVER LOOSE RUSSIAN MARKET SHARE? Would YOU do that if you could keep market share at any price?
So OPEC see’s stocks fall in America. And says their cut backs are working.
This is FAKE NEWS and a BIG LIE.
The truth IS that Asia is moving MARKET SHARE that OPEC and primarily SAUDI leading OPEC is having OPEC members pay ungodly loss in revenue to force their own customers to leave them forever. The customers have easy options in bidding wars over the 70% of OIL SUPPLY that is NON OPEC and rising as OPEC decline in market share is IRREVERSIBLE and picking up terrible momentum for OPEC nations losing the market share.
As I have reported OPEC IS PAYING BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS OF LOST REVENUE TO SEND THEIR MARKET SHARE AWAY FROM OPEC MEMBERS FOREVER. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A MORE INSANE ECONOMIC POLICY SAVE WAR.
The MARKET SHARE WAR over the COST OF EVERYTHING has been accelerated and lost by Saudi economic suicide policies that are stupid, more costly than any insane economic policy but war itself. The Gulf Stability given their debt, their move to diversify away from oil ( which now they must accelerate ) and their inability to manage budgets without higher oil prices, impossible given their declining market share and failed policy – which they seem insane bent to continue – further accelerating revenue declines to all OPEC nations – though cheating will advance and accelerate – as well – such that OPEC must crash economies – budgets – massively downsize and law off. Readers against press ignorance in their reporting today – probably think this economic is insane itself.
Folks OPEC is so debt ridden that oil prices at today and lower ranges BANKRUPTS OPEC MEMBERS across the globe. They have no options given their debts if they PAY OUT LOST REVENUE TO FURTHER LOSE MARKET SHARE IN THE MARKET SHARE WARS. They are like a whale in a sand lake where the water has dried up and there is no forward rain coming in the long draught and the flopping around appears to be life when the whale is dying in fact. Economically speaking.
OPEC Is dying inside its own sand due to wrong sided policies. OPEC needs to PROTECT MARKET SHARE at all cost regardless of price or bankrupt. Watch as economics fails to forgive stupidity. OPEC is trying to manipulate prices as in 1973 where even a total embargo would only accelerate their own bankruptcy and loss of market share.
I wrote in 2015 and 2016 and 2017
OPEC IS DOA – DEAD ON ARRIVAL !
Control of price is no longer having anything at all to do with OPEC. All OPEC is doing is sending its own customers out the door forever – paying for them to leave – and giving speculator wind fall profits when they jaw bone markets with economics that have no basis in reality.
The supply draw down in America was market factored. The reasons for the draw down are:
- Seasonal normal supply as during every year repeating expected patterns occur.
- Refinery seasonal down time to repair – is over and peak season during the summer is seasonally on point.
- Supply will go down then come back. Opec has nothing to do with it. Why?
- Opec cut backs are completely over come by NON OPEC supply off setting those cut backs to the market. The supply of oil is greater this instant in 2017 than it was before OPEC decided to pay to lose its own market share ( an insane economic move by a stupid stupid policy ).
- Open is using POLITICS to drive economics but ECONOMICS is now in control not political manipulations. In OPEC world and politics almost always fails in driving success to economics.
The world has moved through the stages of 5,000 years of base line economic history that unfolds as follows:
- Following the most recent global wars prosperity unfolds and elites consolidate wealth world wide until in all leading economies 1% own more wealth than 99% ( and consolidation continues ) creating enormous system instability economically speaking.
- This system wobble ends with a melt down globally with the last Super Crash 2008 as a consequence of economic consolidation and removal of stability circulation.
- The system then spends years of ever greater consolidation for the winning SUPER RICH, while the world moves into distrust negation and a spiral of TRADE WARS.
- A contagion event due to debt abuse occurs ( always ) as a consequence of imbalances to accounts from losers in the spiral of trade wars. and a bigger SUPER CRASH and global depression due to DEFLATION SPIRALS no central bank can over come as circulation is no longer adequate to sustain growth in a stable economic model. The old model is broken beyond repair.
- The world prepares for and moves into WORLD WAR to rebalance economic account when the FIVE TO DIE cycle begins all over again with a new post war prosperity.
As this 5000 year never varies economic modeling is INSANE why do we not revolutionize a new model we call COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM? While we have time?
The elites are blinded by mindless accumulation of consolidating wealth and power for endless gratifications and see any system reform as threat to their franchise on wealth. This mind set is insane and holds the people of the world hostage.
The system is broken beyond repair.
The system managers are insane and do not see the value of revolution to the core system model benefits them long term.
They chose in many cases risk of destruction and death from war such that the winners are the new elites. That insane pattern of thinking and emotional capital must be upgraded to revolutionize systems.
Billions are hostage to 1000 at the top. Who are without knowing it by majority insane.
Will sanity win?
It does not look like it as we see patterns repeat in Saudi Arabia and OPEC paying untold wealth to lose market share forever and utterly fail to rebalance supply and demand no matter what summer week to week data shows – watch the annual data and weep. THE EARTH IS DROWNING IN RENEWABLE OIL AND GAS.
OPEC has no influence on price other than a speculator sake to make software profits that disappear in a matter of hours. You’ll see.
Oil in the 30’s?
You heard that first hear in 2015 now everyone is reporting the news.
Berny Dohrmann – KEEPING YOU OUT FRONT ALWAYS
PS: Today for the first time ever SAUDI reported the sad math and numbers of the failed policy stating they are LOOSING MARKET SHARE….this falls under given my many blog economics on this data …DUHHHHH ?
MID-MARCH READINGS I WANT EVERYONE SHARING
Last year we told you to expect an insane election year FOOLS rally that would set prices already at record high’s, inside a record boom length period in time, where the higher it goes the longer it waits to correct the more SAVAGE the ultimate SUPER CRASH.
We noted the world markets were in a casino of speculative market pricing where all asset classes were now in a speculation fuel BUBBLE.
We told you this Spring ( that is Sunday folks ) the downward pressure would reach a tipping point. IT has been going down all week – pretty solid as we made that prediction last year against all experts we can find online or offline. We were right. Again. For our long time readers, this accuracy is now expected.
We also told you OIL, contrary to the world experts was not going anywhere. The notion OPEC was relevant somehow was wrong and that OPEC had lost influence control and credibility over the oil markets of the world. The day of OPEC is over.
We noted it is not longer a price war it is now and for years been a MARKET SHARE WAR. The foolish recent move to PRICE CONTROLS failed. What HAS HAPPENED is that Saudi has paid a price to let its other market members profit as Saudi loses market share and others gain the Saudi market share ( forever ). This was not a solid economic move. Why? Because politics led economics.
So the USA is now producing 9.1 million barrels A DAY. This market share on our side is soaring. And we have only been exporting for less than 12 months in fifty years. Our output is just soaring and nothing is going to stop that output. Also, our reserves in a nation have RISEN ( soared really ) for 9 solid months without let up. The USA is setting record after record of RESERVES OF OIL GLUT. While production is SOARING cutting market share from EVERYONE ELSE more rapidly than ANYONE ELSE. Said another way Oil will PLUNGE through the 50 dollar range and move to 42 dollars or below. Saudi will have to stop PAYING FOR OTHERS TO STEAL THEIR MARKET SHARE. Their strategy is no longer working. Everyone is taking advantage of them. Today they stated their market position was LIMITED IN TIME on reduced pumping. SAUDI MUST JOIN THE MARKET SHARE WARS OR DIE ( financially speaking ).
SUPER CHANGE is speeding up. We thought things were going to slow down and return to a new normal. They are not slowing down. They are continuing to speed up at every faster pace. What we all need to do is to CALM DOWN TO CATCH UP collectively.
Oil producers outside the USA from Nigeria to Russia are in new frontiers to plan budgets, and remodel their economies around decades of cheap oil. Without a world war or even with it – Oil is too abundant to finance old models for producer nations. Russia can’t afford to pay its bills and one would WATCH OUT FOR WAR as a way out of their PETRO nation crises. Putin’s failure to reform the communist system, economically, to diversify into entrepreneur national interests versus a single PETRO NATION with crashing prices and demand – has moved RUSSIA down in GNP by 80% in only sixty months. Failed policies are so punishing for the masses of everyday people while the 1% own all the wealth. Insane systems must rebalance eventually.
So the tipping point for a big correction is coming. Can the market go up some more – you bet and I suggest it would base on computer software manipulations.
However, as these items occur:
- Endless derailment of massive inflation coming – by the FED – raising interest rates every single opportunity and more aggressively on rates than anyone saw until something BREAKS LOOSE like a recession – WILL RATTLE MARKETS.
- Tepid growth in the USA running around 1% in 2017 is too weak to secure price ranges of all asset classes.
- Reality – many of Trumps HOPE CHEST items will take longer or NOT BE DELIVERED AT ALL and that reality check – will derail the markets entirely.
When is the SUPER CRASH? I can’t predict THAT other than to say its soon – by next Spring or sooner ( anytime ).
When is the market correction – Now to October is my best guess with all the King’s men and all the King’s horses trying and trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
Meanwhile, RUSSIA moving next generation cruise atomic weapons into the EU theater does threaten Nato and is a violation of a treaty. Things are escalating.
North and South Korea are two trains at full speed charging into a head-on collision. Even China is worried now. Trump asked for MILITARY OPTIONS against North Korea. They might not wait and do the FIRST STRIKE. Then what?
China is in meltdown and riots are breaking out everywhere as controls get tougher and tougher – none of which are working. The CHINA DEBT and housing asset bubbles must SUPER CRASH and they will. When is all we don’t know?
Greece is about to default.
As dollar values soar with higher interest African South American and other developing nations in Asia will be unable to pay debt and defaults will begin to contagion through the system as the World Bank and IMF warned.
The good news is: what? Fake news is all. The economic recovery following the 2008 crash SUCKS and is THE WORST recovery ever. Period. Despite trillions poured into the markets to avoid depression. What a mess.
The policy has failed.
As the shells move around the table and the politicians ask the voters with this big ass grin – who has the pea? Which shell has the pea? Do you know? How about YOU? Do you see it? All the while moving the shells. DO YOU. Do YOU see the Pea?
Perhaps there is no pet any longer if there ever even was.
Berny Dohrmann – KEEPING THE PEA ON JUST FOR YOU
TURKEY IS PREDICTABLE: GOBBLE GOBBLE GOBBLE
So Turkey has a coup. Who caused it? WE believe and stated Russia caused it and blamed it on the USA. Erdogan suckered in by Russia – depreciates his USA relationship – executes weapon and trade deals with Russia – the USA failed policy never see’s it coming – suckered right in by Putin ( well done President Putin ) – and once again the USA is on the mat gasping for air.
Meanwhile guided by Putin in PROGRAM style purges – Erdogan is moving all of his opposition out. The question …IS TURKEY STILL A DEMOCRACY …rings valid. Turkey is now free to join the war with Syria against the KURDS liberating ground from ISIS and in the middle as there is no love lost for Syria while all this is going on. Turkey wants larger boarders taking land and moving map lines in Iraq and in Syria to the advantage of Turkey.
The USA is on the mat gasping for air never seeing it all coming.
Russia of course is playing CHESS with the West while the EU and America play Checkers saying King ME and hi-fiving one another. Russia is having a great laugh now.
So NATO and the EU vote today to x out Turkey as a new Nato Member for all the reasons we just stated and Russia being under the Turkey hood. Erdogan lusting for the billions in jobs and dollars pouring in from a NATO alliance, and of course the WEAPONS he would then have access to ( and which Russia could steal ) is not entertained by today’s NO VOTE by Brussels. No siree Bobbie.
So Erdogan goes live and public around the world stating – hey you idiots – if you keep breaking your promise to Turkey, Turkey will open the gates to the EU and send the 3,000,000 plus immigrants from SYRIA right forward on to you – you EU guys feed them house them give them education health care and jobs. We will bankrupt you. NATO or BANKRUPT.
Again the EU and American are on the mat gasping for air.
Russia is holding Putin’s hands up in the victory dance having successfully marginalized the USA from Gulf and Mediterranean policy making in 2014 in 2015 and in 2016 where each round in the prize fight Putin wins and Obama loses like he has NO CLUE at all. THAT is success and America is down for the count. Like we just don’t get it. Never see it coming.
But Putin has us in damned if we do and damned if we don’t. THE NO VOTE ON NATO blocked an important Putin strategic plan. Though the EU is still in DISCUSSIONS with Erdogan – keeping that immigration door closed but now Erdogan led by Putin as a Russian PUPPET in effect – will attempt to get massive concessions more to get into NATO.
Erdogan keeps his USA cards open and on the table allow our bases to bomb his enemies – ISIS – but keeping a watch they don’t bomb Putin’s side too much….with hands off orders on Putin’s team winning for Syria as the USA is on the mat losing and gasping for air – never seeing Putin coming. Good Job President Putin you win on all rounds.
Although President Trump is going to be a worthy CHESS PLAYER coming up next. For the fight is far from over. Far far from over.
Winning is all about who wins last not who wins first President Putin. So hold those hands up and happy dance around the ring. There may be a moment you never even see it coming. We’ll see.
Meanwhile, Erdogan believes he is in charge of his nation as he creates a TURKEY dictatorship. And why not. They tried to kill his wife and children only weeks ago – why not consolidate his power. The opposition made their mistakes and now they pay the consequence in that part of the world. What would we all expect? Fair play?
The coup was not fair play.
So democracy – is an idea that exists in the eye of the beholder. Does the USA have a democracy? Where 2,000,000 more voted for Hillary than voted for Trump but the electoral college goes to TRUMP? Is that fair?
The voters are on the mat and they never saw it coming as they gasp for air.
The world today is not fair nor is it honest.
We the people long for integrity and seek only that. We only wish leadership would tell the truth faster.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the truth on just for you this weekend
OPEC – OIL – THE COST OF “EVERYTHING”
Oil is not rare or scarce in any way. Oil price has been a feature after World War II of monopoly price controls, much as with the Diamond Markets and DeBeers controls. In the 1980’s market control shifted in digital power trading to SPECULATION AND MANIPULATION. This global loss of OPEC price control shifted price to market speculation in which “traders” made oceans of profits the Producers never saw – while to be sure an unholy alliance of producers into profit making INSIDE the speculation market took place creating profits for producers from rising prices and profits from speculation trades INSIDE the market. No one went to jail as this hidden tax upon the price of EVERYTHING was levied upon the hard working peoples of the world. Consider oil is the base stuff of:
- Transportation and its manufacturing
- Energy in general from lights to factories
- Materials from anything plastique or related from containers to parts and goods.
- Fertilizer and pesticides without which 50% of all food crops would disappear.
- Movement and storage of food to market including containers.
- Aero Space materials
- Defense and its operations and materials along with powering over 1.2 million vehicles and aircraft
- Air transportation for the rest of us
- So much MORE
So the industry of petroleum is an economic ESSENTIAL. When digital trading and SPECULATION began to control prices regulators had lost their ability to regulate because the laws are all LOCAL and the digital trades are all in the unregulated CLOUD. A G 100 new regulatory scheme is called for – one which we have written about now for five years – where the G 100 COOPERATE versus COMPETE inventing a frame work for mutual sustained prosperity. It is not hard. It just requires a mind set.
As special interests profiting from the lack of regulation fund the mind set of most politicians the present system of competitive capitalism and competitive communism is flawed – sustaining an elite class against the interests of the multitudes – us.
The current system has not changed since Rome. The social classes remain:
- Royals who by birth and wealth underwrite national agenda’s
- The merchant class who petition and seek access for favors from the Royals.
- The serf’s – the multitudes – who are wage slaves living in JoBs – just over broke.
An economic system that WORKS and provides mutually assured prosperity – MAPS – is the revolution I call COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM and that I have outlined in my world publication now at Amazon – REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION. A blue print for a new economic global revolution that is bloodless and reformative and in which everyone of the CLASSES today WINS. There are no losers save competitive mind sets who wish to dominate for the pure insanity of that thought form. Those minds are dying while sane minds are thriving around them. And they know it.
Back to OPEC. Yesterday I gave you the OPEC TRAP for the cost of everything. That economic trap goes something like this:
- Opec wants permanently higher prices
- Demand is falling supply is rising
- Scare propaganda supply will fall and demand will soar is a lie
- Lies no longer work as data is on line
- The supply is soaring against a falling demand
- Five miles of ships reside off shores of consumer nations with no place to store oil
- Oil DROPPED 2% over night – as I predicted YESTERDAY
- Experts were in all news saying the best investment is to buy oil
- I said – NO WAY
- If Opec raises prices customers will leave OPEC and buy from lower cost supply
- These customers will never return to OPEC
- New supply sources are plentiful and growing
- North America at a specific price of $ 45 to $ 50 can produce more oil than OPEC
- Other sources coming on line have more supply than OPEC
- All against a falling demand that will fall forever now
- Oil is as a premium product – from market realities – deader than a coffin nail
- Oil as a commodity priced by the market will seek a price level that sheds the HIDDEN SPECULATOR TAX of the last 20 years.
Saudi wanted to remove speculation from the market. This has been done largely as an unintended consequence of their own policy to preserve for customer base in a new and long lasting MARKET SHARE WAR that is on going and long lasting. Today at any price the game is to buy and secure MARKET SHARE inside a world DROMING IN OIL.
Attempts to spin the oil markets with media and manipulation of data will not work as the data is on line and the market is not about to LOOSE MONEY in wild bets that won’t work today to manipulate and control prices.
So we have a history of:
1900’s to 1950 – Market controlled oil price via laws of supply and demand – oil was low cost and energy was low cost – propelling the highest rise in human living standards in 10,000 years.
1950 to 1980 – OPEC monopoly controlled oil price – more uniformly matching supply to demand with artificial premium prices built in – modest tax – upon all people – greatest wealth transfer to OPEC members in the history of economics of all time.
1980’s to 2014 – SPECULATOR price manipulation with huge premium prices shared between producers and market speculators – largely shadow banking – all unregulated with fantastic leverage – the largest hidden tax upon the people of the world since Rome by percentage.
2014 to 2017 – MARKET CONTROLLED PRICING as the price of oil now in huge surplus over demand, a complex basket of factors, permanent, ripped control from speculators due to LOSSES, as thier game no longer worked financially, and neither suppliers or speculators can return premium pricing to the real economics of oil pricing which has returned to SUPPLY AND DEMAND pricing removing the hidden tax upon the peoples of the world.
We reported to you yesterday OPEC was TOAST. It is trying to keep an APPEARANCE it has relevance when in fact it no longer has even influence upon oil pricing. Its members including Saudi Arabia are in serious recession downward spirals because of the data we have presented to the world – above. The history never lies.
Data never lies.
Media does and speculators feeding media lie.
Saudi announced they will NOT even ATTEND the OPEC meeting on Monday. Their attendance would bring them into the final destruction of their own credibility. OPEC would fail to cut back on supply. Supply will over supply world demand throughout 2017 into 2018 and beyond. Any other representation is a lie.
Oil can not return to premium pricing without supply interruption caused by war.
Without war and even with war oil will be plentiful due to American endless supply streams at 50 dollar oil or above – where much of the world market will shift to North American supply over Gulf Supply.
Trump will turn on North American oil, like no generation in human history. More oil will begin to flow from America on shore off shore and in global discoveries than at any time in modern history. Trump promised to make AMERICA ENERGY INDEPENDENT. This is a world game changer and a Gulf economic game changer.
We have proposals into SAUDI to reform their economics where McKinsey after 100 million of investment and more is a Gulf SCANDLE with enormous political capital beings squandered. Why? Such institutions who train Fortune middle managers on performance have zero capacity to revolutionize economics for nations. My father has done so for Korea, China, India, and much of Africa and made sure when I assume management of his teams, I had the background experience and his legacy to reform nations rapidly on the integrated master planning and execution basis. As I don’t charge the going rates my low price point makes our integration a slow decision process – but it always comes on line because all other options fail and cost TIME more than MONEY. We save both. So we are hopeful to breed COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM to replace oil as the driving economic in the Gulf where human capital elevates a permanent sustainable economic THRIVE IN FIVE-year approach to economic hope and promise.
So the Saudi’s saved tons of embarrassment by stepping back from DYSFUNCTIONAL OPEC where the world appreciates “lip servvice illusion to cut backs” is a lie. You can’t increase production in 2016 by two million barrels a day – cut back by one million – and suggest you really cut back. You just cut a part of the OVER SUPPLY and the SUPPLY pumping over demand continues after the cutback. The market is not entertained by lies. The price is punished by lies.
It is more stable and reliable to avoid third party speculation and OPEC intrusion into the supply-demand markets – where the battle is the MARKET SHARE WARS as to who will get India, China, Asia in general, Africa long term, for energy supply. America may be the enormous winner as the COST OF EVERYTHING owned by America is the largest total supply on earth, and is underwriting the American Dollar against phony currencies like China which no one see’s as anything but a disaster about to take place.
China will HARD as in SUPER HARD crash now that they have kept their declining economy from total crash by spending borrowed 300% more than they take in as income annually for years. You can not economically borrow 300% to gross income for years and fail to have a SUPER HARD LANDING. The old rule applies. What goes UP must and WILL come DOWN. BAM.
Super CRASH. Caused by China whose communist leadership failed to heed any of the warnings or help from IMF, World Bank, and others including the USA and EU.
Marching to their own failed communist policies established by history to destroy nations and economies in nations why anyone chooses COMMUNISM is beyond me as an investment banker economist. It is the worst economic form of system modeling for the many while the elite use violence to retain power.
In 2017 China has as does Iran THE GREAT FIRE WALL where their people can only see the world through their filter. Iran is much freer and their people can get on FACE BOOK. In China, they can not. Way to go Iran.
Iran is pumping oil like they deserve to be back which will translate in 2017 to prosperity jobs and the end of hard hard times for IRAN. Good policy moves nations bad policies decline nations. Inspired leadership is modeling for the many against the few versus the few ( elites ) against the many. Which is GOOD ECONOMICS. Long term.
So OIL the COST OF EVERYTHING is going to get less costly.
Economics nothing else for some but not all of the reasons set forth here. A bad investment bet is to bet on oil rising. Bad bad bad and as it has since 2014 the bet that has cost market speculators over ONE TRILLION US DOLLARS in LOSS.
Whoever wants more of THAT or thinks they can return to the old speculator driven markets has lost touch with core economics and is playing by an outdated obsolete rule book today.
Market forces control price and will for the long term. Manipulation from fringe producers like OPEC and influence from any producer or speculator group is not going to work. Regulations are coming to make sure and the market has already made sure.
I’m Berny Dohrmann and I’m sticking with my already proven out message. My latest prediction against all the experts in Media last week was proven correct – OVER NIGHT. I just told you WHY.
Berny Dohrmann – on the COST OF EVERYTHING – keeping a light on just for YOU