OPEC – IS IT FALLING APART COMPLETELY IN PANIC ???

OPEC – IS IT FINALLY NOW FALLING UTTERLY APART 

 

Opec Members have simply had it with Saudi and Opec failed policies. So lets look at the failed Saudi OPEC Policies over the period 2014 to now:

 

  1. 2014 oil is $ 120 dollars a barrel due to cartel manipulation of price.
  2. American Shale Oil rose to shatter OPEC monopoly and influence bringing cheaper easier to refine crude to markets and stealing OPEC customer market share.
  3. To crush the American Oil Shale industry OPEC led by Saudi turned on the spigot to all time record flood the market with oil. This shattered the price to 39.00 dollars from 120 dollars a price SUPER CRASH of oil now in massive over supply of demand ( a failed policy ) – we are talking a crash of almost 90% of the price of 2014 by failed Saudi policy.
  4. This created a lower profit for shale from America which rose from 2014 from two million barrels a day to 10 million barrels a day from 2015 to 2017 – a short time to become more influential than OPEC. Today Saudi cuts supply in November by 600,000 barrels a day at their target price of 60.00 dollars ( which utterly failed ) losing three billion dollars a day to force their own customers to leave.
  5. Russia and other OPEC members are losing market share to customers buying now from America and non OPEC producers who supply draw’s OPEC. Their failed policy to REBALANCE OIL MARKETS which means to manipulate a phony supply demand price cartel tax on the peoples of the world – is seen for what it is – criminal taxation of the development nations of the earth. OPEC is shattered and shattering on pure economics.
  6. OPEC members are cheating. No OPEC member wants to follow the idiot  Barkindo and his failed Saudi jaw bone with dentures and no teeth as OPEC no longer controls sufficient supply to do anything but to pay a trillion dollars – which they have to lose their own market share.
  7. OPEC sought to CRUSH SHALE PRODUCTION by lowering price so they could not producer. American invention used technology to make profits at the lower price and took the oil drilling rigs and shoved that rig right up Opec’s economic ass hole. Which is bleeding red ink in all Opec nations. They are in the RED and bleeding red ink if they subscribe to opec membership and follow the  Barkindo idiot savant economic plan of the most hated oil minister in 100 years. Saudi has lost the war by failed policy.

The market knows this.

The market is smart.

The market knows the MARKET SHARE WAR has been won by America and non OPEC member production.

Today –  Barkindo on his prayer rug – blinked before Allah and the entire world. Making the King of Saudi Arabia look even more enfeebled than he is. We caution the IPO coming from SAUDI is going to end up in falling market share and falling prices and failed policy the worst IPO loser of the century. Watch as time passes on that item.

So today what took place that changed everything? Again look at the history.

Barkindo oil minister sets up a failed plan to crush American oil Shale Production.

Last WEEK not sometime in the distant future the Saudi King from Russia and  Barkindo the idiot economic failure for Saudi and Opec – stated in the press – WE HAVE NO CONCERNS ABOUT AMERICAN OIL SHALE PRODUCTION.

Today a week later what does the PANIC we told you was REAL in OPEC tell you?

TODAY  Barkindo SAID – TO OUR FRIENDS IN AMERICA SHALE PRODUCTION ( WE TIRED TO CRUSH OUT OF BUSINESS IN 2015 2016 AND 2017 WITH ABSOLUTE RUTHLESSNESS ) – HEY COME ON – JOIN US TO REBALANCE OIL AND CUT BACK SO WE CAN GET THE HIGHER PRICES WE WANT CARTEL MANIPULATION ON VERSUS MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN FREE MARKETS THAT AMERICA STANDS FOR. HEY COME ON JOIN US YOUR ENEMY. CUT BACK AS WE HAVE NO BULLETS OR OPTIONS LESS. AND IF YOU DO NOT JOIN US – WE THE RED INK GOING BANKRUPT NATIONS PRODUCING – WE WILL DO SOMETHING” DRASTIC IN 2018 SO YOU BETTER JOIN US – WITH THAT THREAT LIKE A TRUMP TWEET ON THE TABLE. HE WE ARE NOT IN UTTER STAMPEDE PANIC MODE WHERE OUR MEMBERS ARE ALL LEAVING AND OPEC IS BREAKING UP BUT OUR LAST CARD IS HEY AMERICA WILL YOU JOIN US AND GIVE UP FREE MARKET VICTORY TAKING OUR CUSTOMERS FROM US FOREVER AND RETURN THEM TO US AND STOP TAKING YOUR BILLIONS WHILE WE LOSE OUR BILLIONS – IS THAT OK AND WILL YOU DO THAT TODAY FOLKS?

 

NOW  Barkindo is an absolute idiot economically. He has cost OPEC its entire forward membership. OPEC IS FALLING APART. Members are going to leave to preserve their economics and their economic market share. IF they don’t leave they will lose market share ( at any price ) and never get that market share back.

Nations and customers are FURIOUS at the manipulation. They do not want REBALANCING of Energy at 120 dollars a barrel by artificial greedy manipulation of the few against the many. They OPEC members need to pressure market share – making profits at any price by selling more not less oil.

Oil is GOING TO BE IN SURPLUS and Saudi has lost the market share wars. They are going bankrupt at todays’ price due to their internal budgets, failure to crash those budgets when oil price crashed, and they now long term must adjust – and if the continue to cut back by billions a day – they accelerate their own bankruptcy as OPEC members. That is economics 101.

Today OPEC blinked.

Barkindo on his prayer rug asked Allah to inspire America ( Christians by the way ) to STOP SHALE OIL PRODUCTION which is doing what?

  1. Shoving up OPEC’s ass for trying to destroy the American industry.
  2. Beating OPEC at their own game and trashing OPEC on the score board.
  3. Controlling global market price splitting oil markets Into two prices – phoned OPEC pricing at 57 dollars a barrel down from 59 and American pricing at 49 dollars a barrel dropping from 54 for a day or two.
  4. Raising oil market share to 10 million a barrel and rising to 20 million a barrel a day and OPEC knows that – OPEC knows America has the largest oil reserves on earth making OPEC look like a dying lake.
  5. American Oil Shale industry is making the dollar stronger – rebalancing unfair trade with the world in the American trade export accounts and fast and forever taking MARKET SHARE from OPEC with easier to refine oil and cheaper oil and this victory for America is endless.

Asking a FREE TRADE NATION to cartel manipulate prices to penalize the development world from China to Africa for the advantage of some Gulf economic failures trying to monopolize oil like the 1970’s embargo – is not repeatable. Turning oil off would only make America absolutely dominant in market share. THE NON OPEC MEMBERS are prospering at the enormous cost of the FEW AGAINST THE MANY – the failed economic policy of OPEC since 2014 and before frankly.

OPEC has failed in all its models.

OPEC had its opportunity for success and by its own policy has set its people in a struggle now economically that will not be easy to get out of and will consume decades to REBALANCE not oil but their own economies. Russia needs to DEPART FROM OPEC for one reason. SURVIVAL and the prosperity driven by its own return to market share trashing the relationship with an economic child  Barkindo who has bankrupt ideas bankrupt IP and today showed panic on his prayer rug with his global admission of utter total failure for the Royal Family.

If I where the Kings son and heir apparent I’d use the phrase from Alice and Wonderland  Barkindo off with your head. How many trillions does one man cost a nation and his failed team and advisers?

We offered to set them on the right path. We hand carried proposals to the heir. But no one listened and now we have the failure at such extreme panic that OPEC ‘begs on its knees” for AMERICA to cut back and join OPEC.

Now this causes the market share war and market markets to simply laugh over two martinis lunches from New York to Hong Kong to London. The press and comedians are going to have a field day with this one. I hope this blog reaches Saturday Night Live writers – hey send it to them.

Barkindo one man has made OPEC a joke to the world.

Barkindo one man has destroyed OPEC influence and relevance to oil markets.

Barkindo has shattered OPEC confidence its only membership glue.

Barkindo has OPEC members leaving in droves as you will see in 2018.

Barkindo destroyed OPEC.

Barkindo one man announced the end of OPEC today with his prayer rug on his knee plea to American shale Producers to please oh please cut back to rebalance ( manipulate price for our cartel profit against the world ) and can you do that today as we are bleeding to death over here at OPEC.

There is no tweet – no moron comment – no history like today with this one man  Barkindo who will shatter CONFIDENCE in the ARAMCO underwriting and IPO in free fall pricing like oil itself. To say the plans of a nation are destroyed and shattered by only one man is to understand the failure of  Barkindo policy to oil markets.

He rolled the dice and he lost.

America gutted him and OPEC intestines are falling onto the pavement and its 120 degree’s over there.

LOSER.

Barkindo is a moron and a loser in classic economics so predictable from each step by economics 101 and any text book. This is not rocket science.

So OPEC customers want to pay less not more for oil.

OPEC customers are furious the cartel wishes to tax them for their own profit account.

Opec customers have choice now and do not need OPEC now or in the future.

OPEC customers are strategically buying around OPEC and moving supply long term and now short term to NON OPEC suppliers.

The HUGE WINNER of the MARKET SHARE WARS with OPEC hammering them all along that path is AMERICA.

The United States of America is NOT going to JOIN OPEC or HELP OPEC and only an idiot would do what  Barkindo the moron did today – which is a public display of ABSOLUTE OPEC PANIC as they free fall beyond any control and have no end in sight how to repair their own internal budget as customers are leaving them now as a RUN on the OPEC BANK.

The longer members oil bankers stay with  Barkindo and the OPEC OIL BANK the more they will lose depositors running on their accounts. So the way to secure oil banker deposits is to publicly announce you are LEAVING OPEC and focusing on your customer services at market prices satisfying customer need not  Barkindo need.

The longer you stay in the failed OPEC OIL BANK the greater the velocity of market share RUN ON YOUR BANK will become because your OPEC BANKING CUSTOMERS are FURIOUS at your interest charges for your product and are all moving to full oil banking services with far lower interest charges for the future.

Barkindo its economics.

So today was the final PANIC. PANIC is public.

Everyone knows. EVERYONE.

OPEC has lost its CORE VALUE AS A CARTEL and now BEING an OPEC member is toxic for your nation and future. Day by Day you are loosing so much MONEY until you announce to stop the RUN ON YOUR OWN BANK you are leaving the TOXIC FAILED OIL BANK now sinking into historic oblivion and obsolesce.

Barkindo the moron failed to understand that economics always rebalances from market manipulation and abuse. Debeers if fighting mass manufacturing of perfect man made diamonds – always plenty and never rare with prices only controlled by cartel. Now price is beyond cartel control as Diamond markets deflate and rebalance. Oil is rebalancing to economic market forces of plentiful supply as the earth frats and craps oil and gas – there is no scare supply. Or costly supply.

ENERGY the COST OF EVERYTHING has taxed nations to the bone by artificial greed and cartel pricing. OIL “IS” rebalancing and OPEC has nothing to do with it. Saudi the “swing producers” are loosing 600,000 barrels a day – where those customers are moving to America – and Saudi never gets that business back. They are not rebalancing anything but their own bankruptcy and budget.

Oil is in free fall as we reported.

OPEC is going to shatter and oil price is going to range 35 to 45 dollars.

OPEC pricing is dead on arrival.

Barkindo soon will be too we suspect. One man costing trillions to oil bankers from a totally failed policy. When does the money hold  Barkindo responsible and install a customer service market share minister as the OPEC model is failed.

It is every nation for itself as oil bankers and OPEC members are such losers for staying in the most failed cartel in history. INCREASINGLY OPEC oil bankers are seen as pure criminals trying to regain a tax on the poor and the development nations taxing billions trying to rise to full partnership but unable to do so because a few profited from 120 dollar a barrel of energy cost for their own greed at the enormous cost of nations developing as ENERGY IS THE COST OF EVERYTHING ELSE.

Today solar – wind – tidal – and natural gas which burns clean and makes lower electric cost – is with atomic power – fueling the world energy grid away from oil and more and more transportation is moving from oil to electric as demand peaks are going to fall off a cliff and oil can never be manipulated by OPEC or any supply cartel as a crime really – because today the supply oil bankers are not OPEC members and are the dominant and rising market share retiring OPEC oil banker market share the longer they force their own customers to RUN ON THEIR OIL BANK.

So now you know the truth of 2014 to October of 2017 when  Barkindo on his beggger prayer rug threw in the towel for his 82 year old King and stated – HEY AMERICA YOU CUT BACK so we can rebalance ( criminally move prices to high so we can stay out of bankruptcy as nations ) and America – having been hit by economic motors and missiles from OPEC for years – watched the economic mushroom cloud over  Barkindo – had a good laugh and invested as never before in MARKET SHARE SUPPLY GROWTH to utterly run on OPEC OIL MEMBER BANKS and destroy what remains of their final existence.

Barkindo gambled and lost the entire war.

America won.

The United States is so much STRONGER at 3% growth now rising to even higher – because of our THANK YOU to  Barkindo the moron economists and oil minister that personally DESTROYED OPEC as we reported here – for some time with data and the press fails to report the news with OIL advertising and underwriting for all press the ultimate spin to information on the earth.

Toxic.

Environmentally the one and sole cause of CLIMATE CHANGE.

Killing life on earth for greed and profit.

Being slowly retired.

By demand…..

Market supply demand and customer service define oil markets from NON OPEC membership today.

Those who leave OPEC will prosper.

Those who remain will be in economic pain that becomes unimaginable.

Economics leading politics or politics leading economics.

Economics always wins.

Barkindo and his tribe always lose.

Today OPEC is one word – LOSER !

Berny Dohrmann – You can read the tea leaves properly now on OPEC

Being RIGHT “OVERNIGHT – IS GRATIFYING

OPEC – OIL – THE COST OF “EVERYTHING” 

 

Oil is not rare or scarce in any way. Oil price has been a feature after World War II of monopoly price controls, much as with the Diamond Markets and DeBeers controls. In the 1980’s market control shifted in digital power trading to SPECULATION AND MANIPULATION. This global loss of OPEC price control shifted price to market speculation in which “traders” made oceans of profits the Producers never saw – while to be sure an unholy alliance of producers into profit making INSIDE the speculation market took place creating profits for producers from rising prices and profits from speculation trades INSIDE the market. No one went to jail as this hidden tax upon the price of EVERYTHING was levied upon the hard working peoples of the world. Consider oil is the base stuff of:

  • Transportation and its manufacturing
  • Energy in general from lights to factories
  • Materials from anything plastique or related from containers to parts and goods.
  • Fertilizer and pesticides without which 50% of all food crops would disappear.
  • Movement and storage of food to market including containers.
  • Aero Space materials
  • Defense and its operations and materials along with powering over 1.2 million vehicles and aircraft
  • Air transportation for the rest of us
  • So much MORE

So the industry of petroleum is an economic ESSENTIAL. When digital trading and SPECULATION began to control prices regulators had lost their ability to regulate because the laws are all LOCAL and the digital trades are all in the unregulated CLOUD. A G 100 new regulatory scheme is called for – one which we have written about now for five years – where the G 100 COOPERATE versus COMPETE inventing a frame work for mutual sustained prosperity. It is not hard. It just requires a mind set.

As special interests profiting from the lack of regulation fund the mind set of most politicians the present system of competitive capitalism and competitive communism is flawed – sustaining an elite class against the interests of the multitudes – us.

The current system has not changed since Rome. The social classes remain:

  • Royals who by birth and wealth underwrite national agenda’s
  • The merchant class who petition and seek access for favors from the Royals.
  • The serf’s – the multitudes – who are wage slaves living in JoBs – just over broke.

An economic system that WORKS and provides mutually assured prosperity – MAPS – is the revolution I call COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM and that I have outlined in my world publication now at Amazon – REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION. A blue print for a new economic global revolution that is bloodless and reformative and in which everyone of the CLASSES today WINS. There are no losers save competitive mind sets who wish to dominate for the pure insanity of that thought form. Those minds are dying while sane minds are thriving around them. And they know it.

Back to OPEC. Yesterday I gave you the OPEC TRAP for the cost of everything. That economic trap goes something like this:

  • Opec wants permanently higher prices
  • Demand is falling supply is rising
  • Scare propaganda supply will fall and demand will soar is a lie
  • Lies no longer work as data is on line
  • The supply is soaring against a falling demand
  • Five miles of ships reside off shores of consumer nations with no place to store oil
  • Oil DROPPED 2% over night – as I predicted YESTERDAY
  • Experts were in all news saying the best investment is to buy oil
  • I said – NO WAY
  • If Opec raises prices customers will leave OPEC and buy from lower cost supply
  • These customers will never return to OPEC
  • New supply sources are plentiful and growing
  • North America at a specific price of $ 45 to $ 50 can produce more oil than OPEC
  • Other sources coming on line have more supply than OPEC
  • All against a falling demand that will fall forever now
  • Oil is as a premium product – from market realities – deader than a coffin nail
  • Oil as a commodity priced by the market will seek a price level that sheds the HIDDEN SPECULATOR TAX of the last 20 years.

Saudi wanted to remove speculation from the market. This has been done largely as an unintended consequence of their own policy to preserve for customer base in a new and long lasting MARKET SHARE WAR that is on going and long lasting. Today at any price the game is to buy and secure MARKET SHARE inside a world DROMING IN OIL.

Attempts to spin the oil markets with media and manipulation of data will not work as the data is on line and the market is not about to LOOSE MONEY in wild bets that won’t work today to manipulate and control prices.

So we have a history of:

1900’s to 1950 – Market controlled oil price via laws of supply and demand – oil was low cost and energy was low cost – propelling the highest rise in human living standards in 10,000 years.

1950 to 1980 – OPEC monopoly controlled oil price – more uniformly matching supply to demand with artificial premium prices built in – modest tax – upon all people – greatest wealth transfer to OPEC members in the history of economics of all time.

1980’s to 2014 – SPECULATOR price manipulation with huge premium prices shared between producers and market speculators – largely shadow banking – all unregulated with fantastic leverage – the largest hidden tax upon the people of the world since Rome by percentage.

2014 to 2017 – MARKET CONTROLLED PRICING as the price of oil now in huge surplus over demand, a complex basket of factors, permanent, ripped control from speculators due to LOSSES, as thier game no longer worked financially, and neither suppliers or speculators can return premium pricing to the real economics of oil pricing which has returned to SUPPLY AND DEMAND pricing removing the hidden tax upon the peoples of the world.

We reported to you yesterday OPEC was TOAST. It is trying to keep an APPEARANCE it has relevance when in fact it no longer has even influence upon oil pricing. Its members including Saudi Arabia are in serious recession downward spirals because of the data we have presented to the world – above. The history never lies.

Data never lies.

Media does and speculators feeding media lie.

Saudi announced they will NOT even ATTEND the OPEC meeting on Monday. Their attendance would bring them into the final destruction of their own credibility. OPEC would fail to cut back on supply. Supply will over supply world demand throughout 2017 into 2018 and beyond. Any other representation is a lie.

Oil can not return to premium pricing without supply interruption caused by war.

Without war and even with war oil will be plentiful due to American endless supply streams at 50 dollar oil or above – where much of the world market will shift to North American supply over Gulf Supply.

Trump will turn on North American oil, like no generation in human history. More oil will begin to flow from America on shore off shore and in global discoveries than at any time in modern history. Trump promised to make AMERICA ENERGY INDEPENDENT. This is a world game changer and a Gulf economic game changer.

We have proposals into SAUDI to reform their economics where McKinsey after 100 million of investment and more is a Gulf SCANDLE with enormous political capital beings squandered. Why? Such institutions who train Fortune middle managers on performance have zero capacity to revolutionize economics for nations. My father has done so for Korea, China, India, and much of Africa and made sure when I assume management of his teams, I had the background experience and his legacy to reform nations rapidly on the integrated master planning and execution basis. As I don’t charge the going rates my low price point makes our integration a slow decision process – but it always comes on line because all other options fail and cost TIME more than MONEY. We save both. So we are hopeful to breed COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM to replace oil as the driving economic in the Gulf where human capital elevates a permanent sustainable economic THRIVE IN FIVE-year approach to economic hope and promise.

So the Saudi’s saved tons of embarrassment by stepping back from DYSFUNCTIONAL OPEC where the world appreciates “lip servvice illusion to cut backs” is a lie. You can’t increase production in 2016 by two million barrels a day – cut back by one million – and suggest you really cut back. You just cut a part of the OVER SUPPLY and the SUPPLY pumping over demand continues after the cutback. The market is not entertained by lies. The price is punished by lies.

It is more stable and reliable to avoid third party speculation and OPEC intrusion into the supply-demand markets – where the battle is the MARKET SHARE WARS as to who will get India, China, Asia in general, Africa long term, for energy supply. America may be the enormous winner as the COST OF EVERYTHING owned by America is the largest total supply on earth, and is underwriting the American Dollar against phony currencies like China which no one see’s as anything but a disaster about to take place.

China will HARD as in SUPER HARD crash now that they have kept their declining economy from total crash by spending borrowed 300% more than they take in as income annually for years. You can not economically borrow 300% to gross income for years and fail to have a SUPER HARD LANDING. The old rule applies. What goes UP must and WILL come DOWN. BAM.

Super CRASH. Caused by China whose communist leadership failed to heed any of the warnings or help from IMF, World Bank, and others including the USA and EU.

Marching to their own failed communist policies established by history to destroy nations and economies in nations why anyone chooses COMMUNISM is beyond me as an investment banker economist. It is the worst economic form of system modeling for the many while the elite use violence to retain power.

In 2017 China has as does Iran THE GREAT FIRE WALL where their people can only see the world through their filter. Iran is much freer and their people can get on FACE BOOK. In China, they can not. Way to go Iran.

Iran is pumping oil like they deserve to be back which will translate in 2017 to prosperity jobs and the end of hard hard times for IRAN. Good policy moves nations bad policies decline nations. Inspired leadership is modeling for the many against the few versus the few ( elites ) against the many. Which is GOOD ECONOMICS. Long term.

So OIL the COST OF EVERYTHING is going to get less costly.

Economics nothing else for some but not all of the reasons set forth here. A bad investment bet is to bet on oil rising. Bad bad bad and as it has since 2014 the bet that has cost market speculators over ONE TRILLION US DOLLARS in LOSS.

Whoever wants more of THAT or thinks they can return to the old speculator driven markets has lost touch with core economics and is playing by an outdated obsolete rule book today.

Market forces control price and will for the long term. Manipulation from fringe producers like OPEC and influence from any producer or speculator group is not going to work. Regulations are coming to make sure and the market has already made sure.

I’m Berny Dohrmann and I’m sticking with my already proven out message. My latest prediction against all the experts in Media last week was proven correct – OVER NIGHT. I just told you WHY.

Berny Dohrmann – on the COST OF EVERYTHING – keeping a light on just for YOU