FED THE ECONOMY KILLER – 2020
The economics of the world are driven today by debt. The debt load in 2918 remains:
- All time record high commercial loans
- All time high record real estate marginal loans
- All time high car loans
- All time high student loans
- All time high government debt state and federal globally
- All time high institutional loans
- All time high corporate loans
- All time high merger acquisition leveraged buy outs
- All time high stock buy backs – much debt leverage
- All time high margin trading in bonds and equity accounts
Now consider the majority of this Mount Everest of debt must RE-FINANCE between today and 2020. As these loans “roll over” into Fed Interest rates not 100% higher – not 200% higher but 500% higher and more than when these loans originated inside free money policy – for ten years – how do you see marginal stressed borrowers rolling over trillions into 500% higher money cost – or is this just me shouting spit into the wind for you?
Within all this – failed fed policy – as the Fed economically needs to normalize market rates over 25 years not 25 months – the failed current wisdom will do what it did in 1907 – and in 1929 and in 2000 and in 2008 – it will create a world wide SUPER CRASH and we think the risk for a full on depression. The trigger economics will include:
- Wild Debt CASCADING DEFAULTS globally over say a time span of less than 72 hours
- Liquidity Evaporation Day (LED) Day – that freezes markets up.
- Massive Cascading failure of financial institutional backbones – banks close ( again ).
Why? Failed Central Bank Policy. Central Banks are lobbied monopolies – private stock firms – for profit firms – owned by banks and investment banks ( in secret with zero oversight or reporting ) with a congressional 100 year old license ( an 80 page act of congress before the phone internet or computers ) that grants the phony named FEDERAL ( nothing federal about the Fed ) Reserve Board ( has no reserves ) Board ( it bores me ) – exclusive rights to print our money for interest profits. We have suggested ( for five years on this blog ) that all central banks and their processes in a REAL TIME INTERLINKED DIGITAL MARKET be merged back into their treasuries – for oversight audit and accountability – now utterly lacking. That policy ( conflicted to make profits at any cost of their shareholders – the banks – and to bail the banks out ( with our tax payer money when their shareholders make bad bets like 2018 by 11 trillion dollars ) – the only outcome is bankruptcy of nations. Merging the FED back into Treasury is the common damn sense answer but you know they kill you for suggesting THAT direction in fact.
A billion here a billion there and soon we are talking about some pretty serious coin – not bit coin either.
So now the FED raises interest rates 100% in too short a time for the enormity of the DEBT ROLL OVER coming up like a giant debt tsunami world wide – China – EU – the World and the USA make no mistake about that.
Meanwhile the rush to move 10% of non human “managed account trading” or commonly called ETF or Electronic Fund Transfer – when truly there are 1100 instruments in this market space – but in summary – over less than ten years of time – the 400 year history of paper markets and human management of trading – has moved to 90% of all trading is controlled by less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS all AI software at full on economic war with other AI SOFTWARE for mindless profit in the shortest time frame.
AI is spooling up for un heard of historic volatility in the BOND MARKETS next as traditional bond and indexing markets in fixed income go CRAZY now triggered again by FAILED FED POLICY – the cause of all wars and all crashes. LEARN FINANCIAL HISTORY FIRST AND ALL OTHER HISTORY SECOND and you have knowledge and power to safe harbor yourself. Make your own game plan your nation has none and the FED is a mindless profit machine without conscious or social borders in its policy mandate.
The first rule of economic education is to learn the following sentence:
FED POLICY IS ALWAYS A FAILURE AND CAUSE OF EVERY OTHER FAILURE AND ALL BOOM BUST CYCLES AND THE FED CONSISTENTLY DELIVERS ONE PRODUCT – LIES.
Once you learn that sentence you wake up economically. Perhaps from the first time from a University education which is simply NOT.
So lets review history again together shall we – for the economic reality check in:
- The Depression of 1907 and 1929 where caused by the FED.
- The Failed interest policy created volatility
- The zero interest policy created speculation in markets where speculation on WHICH WAY an asset would go was many times larger than the entire market itself – prices were manipulated past any sane valuation.
- Insane borrowing and leverage built up SUPER DEBT BUBBLES.
- Trade wars spiraled up which combined to insane rate rises by the Fed favoring only its own shareholder banks – greed the only need – the tipping point was reached and the world went into global depression and WORLD WAR 1 than a short time later WORLD WAR II.
The Failure of CONGRESS world wide to MERGE THEIR CENTRAL BANKS back into real oversight and regulatory oversight – their STATE TREASURIES – has brought us to a worse economic moment in 2018 as we move forward. Because:
- The speculation market is many times the scale of 1907 and 1929 due to DIGITAL LEVERAGE which has 440 trillion dollars manipulating prices of 3 trillion of economic stake holder ( the real market ) for investment.
- The Debt SUPER BUBBLE is larger than 1907 and 1929 by a huge scale.
- A Global Trade War is heating up just like 1907 and 1929 which created ultimately the collapse.
- The tipping point to Super Crash was Fed failed policy and soaring interest rate charges
- We have zero retention of economic history and repeat the pattern with every more onerous weapons.
Russia with Super Sonic weapons can WIN a war with the USA Today make no mistake about that. For the first time. Still we play dice with economics. That cause wars.
Within all this old history we have NEW HISTORY which includes these data points:
- The scale of debt is digital and beyond any history leverage known to markets
- The markets are now traded with consolidations of 1% own and control more wealth than 99% of 7 billion of us – and the consolidation is manipulating prices through digital trading for the first time with AI not humans controlling the outcomes – while prices are manipulated in a casino capitalism of wild speculations to profits – the end of the tipping point to world collapse economically.
- Once again world regulations no longer apply as Digital trading is in the cloud and regulations are local only and no longer control capital flow dynamics.
The world has never seen DIGITAL AI management of all capital flows. One Sovereign nation fund say Norway with over 1 trillion under management with AI software – is betting against say Iran’s AI software and Russia’s.
Oil the cost of everything is bid up so high by a cartel monopoly of criminals against humanity – such that the US PRESIDENT today tweeted that OPEC was NOT GOOD – once again. Prices for oil are coming down as SAUDI opens spigots up before the USA really turns up the heat to that market – the cost of everything is coming down.
Still the BOND MARKET with interest soaring by unimaginable % rate hikes in time frames never known before – to create insulation of the enormous DEBT CASCADE OF DEFAULTS that will occur from nations and commercial properties and debtor institutions and Debt SUPER POOLs turning from AAA to absolute CRAP as they did in the BIG SHORT of 2008.
The insurance on the digital market has no reserves and is fraud. So like 2008 the crash will involve AIG’s and the like only no nation can now bail them out – the FED will be DEAD when this all occurs. Will CONGRESS FINALLY Hold the REAL VILLAN RESPONSIBLE and MERGE THE FED BACK INTO US TREASURY BY AN EMERGENCY ACT OF CONGRESS?
Sanity in economics versus insanity.
Gold is way down and dropping. Gold is now good actually.
Silver is best.
While everyone is investing in the base camp of Mount Everest in prices that are insane – price earning ratio’s driven by stock buy backs from free money- and tax refund free money – leveraged into MA’s and consolidations like the world has never known before – the Federal Trade Commissions allows all the consolidations to proceed – and looses if they challenge – so onward to the summit where everyone is BLOWN AWAY.
My readers ask me and experts globally – WHEN? No one can say WHEN.
Trade wars now ratcheting up have always triggered with rising interest rates in historic models – SUPER CRASH and DEPRESSION GLOBALLY followed by world war.
WHY WOULD THIS BE DIFFERENT?
The instability we worry about includes:
- The now unstable bond market of Italy.
- The equally unstable debt market in China.
Today capital is FLYING by trillions of dollars out of Italy and out of China. Economically we don’t see a process by which Italy is not forced ( and better off ) to opt out of the EU and move into its own currency – resetting its debts. Its recession and declining incomes, its soaring debt cost, and its elderly population lacking any entrepreneur climate to create growth – spells massive debt defaulting cascade – a trigger that hits France with 330 billion in Italian loans but it spreads to equally fragile Span and across the entire EU – like a debt wild fire.
China is worse. Italy is faced with an EU that is declining economically and Germany has fallen off a cliff all year – long before the TARIFF and trade war event kicks in to them. Germany is the EU largest exporter. Those exports will be fatally hit by America creating EQUAL TAXES to how they tax us all these years. Mearkle tells the entire EU facing its own destruction from Italy to get TOUGH ON THE USA collectively.
Meanwhile Trump is not going to fund 80% of NATO COST defending the EU when the EU won’t pony up to defend itself. The decline of NATO SPENDING would in a trade war destroy the EU. The EU currency has crashed against the dollar and is still crashing. The economy in the EU is in decline. Down bubble.
The US is soaring. Before infrastructure and with infrastructure soaring for decades.
The Dollars is soaring – exploding – with each FED interest rate rise. We told you to buy dollars in the low trough and that the dollar would soar – when everyone stated in the media the dollar was challenged as a world reserve currency. We said NO the DOLLAR was the one and only back stop and we told you why. Right again. For our readers with memory.
EU borrowing cost is soaring before trade war. With trade war the EU we don’t believe can survive at all. Selling out of EU’s soon is going to be safe haven – dollars are more important than gold. Those who trade in EU’s for dollars NOW have the GOLD MINE those who wait – will have the “wish we listened” mind set.
In our opinion.
So we see good times rolling along but risk financial storm clouds gathering. These clouds include:
- Massive capital outflows from nations effected by trade wars.
- Massive capital inflows to America and her markets all of them
- Stress in the EU as debt super bubble crashes now loom
- China and Italy triggers to watch for in debt cascade – all to occur with no warning and with massive world ripples.
- The EU under stress to survive politically and economically – economically we just don’t see it. The EU is drowning in UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT we see only Super Bond Theory as a potential solution. Soon to become TOO LATE to apply.
Everyone is playing in the casino capitalism having the party of their life time. Those who sell out ( sell HIGH and buy LOW ) and place their nest egg into diversified insurance investing – may miss some peaks – will never suffer from the lows – and will stay in the highest return permitted by law with guaranteed principle and you have life insurance “thrown in” to these superior money management modeling conservative MINDS OVER YOUR MONEY.
If you want to KEEP YOUR MONEY safe from loss potential – move soon or now to diversified insurance investing as we have outlined here for two years.
If you want to stay GAMBLE inside casino capitalism you may experience what the majority of gamblers experience – regret and loss.
You know why. Play at your own risk.
The world is about to change and the final marker has been in the 1907 depression and the 1929 depression – rising interest rates too fast and trade wars which smashes the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE and wild market speculation into massive prolonged deflation and economic deleveraging.
In my opinion blinded by greed, policy fails to appreciate that both communism and competitive capitalism as box top rules for the world are FAILED MODELS pure and simple.
A new economic model we call COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM we feel will replace both – either after the SUPER CRASH and wars or if enlightened and cooperation versus competition rises – before.
It looks like we are matching toward and into WORLD WAR III – digitally started in 2008 – continued through AI warfare since – and soon to follow economic collapse into a real resource war globally. No one can predict what the other side of that will look like outside a horrorific period for humanity – because we just could not get along .
Sanity versus insanity.
Remains the problem in all system modeling.
Competition is INSANE at every level.
Cooperation is SANE at every level.
Protect yourself no one else will and timing IS everything.
BERNY DOHRMANN – Spitting into the hurricanes winding up 2018