OIL SUPPLY WORLD WIDE IS SOARING – DEMAND IS FALLING:
Since the dramatic and unprecedented advances in production and manufacturing of the Industrial Revolution from the late 1700s to the early 1900s, humans have been digging up coal, oil and gas for energy.
Except for the introduction of nuclear power based on uranium in the 1950s and 60s, nothing has changed. Today, coal, oil and gas remain the primary sources of energy, fueling human activities around the world.
But the recent and rapid decline in prices of alternative energy sources like wind and solar, and the plunging cost to store them presage a very different future on the horizon – one in which fossil fuels go the way of the dinosaurs, and where in the next 10 years we will see more changes to the energy industry than we have seen in the past 100.
To begin, America only recently achieved its position as the largest producer of oil and gas; a rise made possible by hydraulic fracturing, commonly referred to as fracking.
Even the cost of 3/4 of the planets oil and gas ( under water ) is dropping so that massive off shore finds are annually coming on line into the mix and no end in sight against a price – only phony speculation has up at 75 dollars and after the silly spike – will fall – to the 50’s and stay there if not lower. Its been 29.00 as a low since 2014 and only speculation by Saudi and OPEC investing into future markets wildly on 50 to 1 margin leverage falsely bids the price up but that bid is not sustainable because of these facts. Pure and Simply boys and girls.
Controversial among environmentalists for the danger of environmental contamination many argue it poses, fracking has nonetheless revolutionized the energy industry by raising supply and lowering gas and oil prices.China is Fracking and Africa is Fracking the entire world is going to FRACK right when demand is falling off a cliff never to return ever again. Oil is like Dinosaurs unaware this was their last feeding – ever.
This process of energy extraction involves drilling down into the earth, where previously inaccessible energy reserves can be harvested, essentially fracturing rock to release the hydrocarbons inside.
One major result of the adoption of this new technology and the dramatic drop in gas prices it has produced is the hollowing-out of the U.S. coal industry, reduced from a 35 billion-dollar industry in just 2011, to a 3 billion-dollar industry in 2017.
Using this dramatic shift as an example, we can see the role cost plays in driving the direction of the energy industry. Consider now that solar energy, which has become steadily more competitive as its scale has grown, has gone from producing electric power at $179 per megawatt hour (mWh) in 2009, to $50 per mWh in 2017.
At this rate, solar energy has already undercut gas ($60 per mWh), coal ($102 per mWh), and nuclear energy ($148 per mWh) in cost.
Similar strides have been made in harnessing wind energy sources, with onshore wind costing $40 per mWh and offshore wind sources in 2017 priced at $60.
Posing zero threat to local communities and environments, offshore wind sources are already being adopted by cities like New York, where a contract was recently signed to build an offshore wind farm off the coast of Long Island that will provide power to millions of homes in the nation’s most populous city.
Dramatic price drop
Extensive use of wind and solar energy requires large-scale energy storage to handle their intermittency. The dramatic drop in energy storage costs, from $3000/kWh to $170/kWh in about 20 years, has made increased storage capacity possible, mainly through the development of the Lithium-ion battery.
For the same reason your new smartphone can hold a charge longer, wind and solar energy are fast emerging as a viable and reliable way of powering the entire economy.
Oil and gas will still have a market, though a reduced one, in supplying feedstock to the petrochemical industry for making plastics, and in air and sea transportation, where renewables or batteries are unlikely to be competitive. The drop in demand for oil and gas will, therefore, lower prices and drive out high-cost producers, including most deep-water wells and tar sands.
With power increasingly coming from a large number of intermittent sources and from energy stored in batteries, and with consumers increasingly generating their own from solar panels, the utility model is fast-changing.
The process of passing power from large generators to consumers will not support the complex power systems of the future without utilities taking a more coordinating role.
For these reasons, it is possible and increasingly likely that beyond the middle of this century fossil fuels will play little or no role in producing electric power in advanced economies. And if electric vehicles gain ground, as many in the auto industry expect, the future will be largely free of fossil fuels.
The next decade will be an exciting one for the energy industry, and for those who worry about climate change and the environmental impact of our energy use.
The GREAT REBALANCING of the cost of everything – energy – is taking place – oil king for 100 year is out and planet friendly endless energy – is in. By By Oil betting to profit on oil – why its humbug.