THE FED – DOES THE LIGHT BULB – GO ON ?
The two unemployment numbers. The LIE number that the USA is now at 3.9% unemployment or the real number that the USA is down to 7.8% real unemployment today? Either one the FED may finally be getting the light bulb on in economics.
Oil is the only inflation. I argue that OIL should be removed – as its a cost of everything product that is wildly manipulated in price by speculation. The Real Price for oil in todays supply and demand market without Iran phony politics – is – 50’ish per barrel. A crash in oil is coming for a number of reasons in economics:
- New discovers awash the world in oil and gas – the world is drowning in oil and gas. Plentiful. Renewing. Ever cheaper to bring to market.
- The supply tanks are filling to over flowing in the glut that never ends – ten years and you an’t seen nothing yet.
- Every nation is in it for themselves – Saudi and OPEC are laughed at behind closed doors and no one takes them seriously anymore.
- No matter what Trump does Iran is not going to sell less oil it is going to sell even MORE OIL. It needs the money.
- Iran doesn’t matter because the coming ten years crash DEMAND as the entire world moves off fossil fuels for power – moves into alternative now less costly kilowatt hour power – with the biggest crash in OIL demand in 100 years against the world being flooded by too much oil against a nose dive in demand globally.
All the speculators and all the kings men can’ t put economic oil Humpty Dumpty back together again – can’t be done economically. OIL as a commodity had its day in the sun …but the sun also sets. What goes up NEWTON was so amazing – ALWAYS COMES DOWN.
Short term politics and speculators may spike a hike -but that is greed and not real inflation and will not last.
If you take oil out of the matrix the FED sees deflation. The FED is smart enough to realize we are stuck in Japan stagflation and we need TIME and stimulation to – re-inflate. There is a fragile recovery. Earnings look good. Employment is going back up but its slow folks not roaring not fast and not what even economist expect.
To tighten and normalize is appropriate if taken as a decade or longer view not a 18 month view – but safer an 18 year view. The Fed needs to re-signal the market they are going to moderate normalization over time.
A slower pace – two hikes a year – is enough – and achieves every item on the goal list. The idea that a runaway inflation is building is now clearly false as we reported here. The world economic is not strong enough to survive in the DEBTS of today untimely normalization. Economic suicide results if attempted by the FED. The Fed will stop the recover dead. And still may by miscalculations.
The factors that concern markets are always longer term. The markets ( money protecting itself from harms way ) is always right. Signals are always right. The signals are clear. THE FED IS TOO EARLY TOO ABRUPT TO FAST on normalization policy. If continued the FED will make the world economy dead.
A real risk to the entire system failing will rise exponentially. Why? Because the Fed profiting its own shareholders ( banks and investment banks who own the Fed – keep that idea in your head when you think the economy could end up dead ) – have pressure from their greedy owners to hike up their profits ( interest on money ) faster and faster.
The bankers are making enough – more than enough. They pay us 1% or zero to store our funds with them – and they lend us our own money at 7 to 8% interest rates or up to 35% on credit cards with late fee’s. Pretty good racket.
They can lend 11 to one on every dollar they get. Talk about a Ponzi scheme. Who thought up that model?
So today the FED seeing that without oil there is zero inflation or wage stress to rise wage levels inflating economics. 11 trillion invested and still no real inflation. Deflation is taking place. That ought to really scare the Fed.
So miscalculate and its already too late.
The Fed is a group of ladies and gentlemen who put on their pants like you and me. They work for their shareholders who control the FED as a privately owned stock firm with a contract with the USA via an 80 page act from congress 100 years ago – terrible legislation. Merging the FED back into Treasury makes all the sense in the world and is an idea that is catching on – blog argued here for half a decade as my readers well know.
The risk to the world system failing is FED misguided policy. The dozen Fed influencers – ladies and gentlemen like you and I – having no special knowledge or powers – they have the same precise data we see. How they chose to interpret that data is influenced by shareholders who make more money and profit if interests soar faster.
The conflict is obvious.
Today in any open debate Congress would not empower a third party NGO to print money at enormous cost to nation. We would print money for free as we always did from founding forward by the US Treasury until the 1900’s. Then we side contracted money printing to a private bank owned stock firm. Independent without reporting accounting audit or even responsibly to nation.
Alan Greenspan former Fed Chairman once stated…
” there is no power upon this earth that can influence modify or change a decision or policy we at the Fed undertake…”
WHY would a check and balance nation breach its own constitution and contract with zero check and balance the policy and printing of money to a group of criminal banks?
Banks charged with crimes who pay billions making trillions from the crimes – no one goes to jail – and these banks own the shares of the FED. If criminals own and run the Fed ( really ) what then do you expect of the FED as a bought paid for and controlled by the crooks as to out comes?
We advocate the FED be stopped from destroying the economic fabric of the world as it did in raising interest too high too fast – creating trade wars that sunk the world in 1907’s world wide depression in 1929 world wide depression – in 2000 DOT.BOMB speculation bubble via debt investing and again in 2008 via trillions in loans profiting their criminal bank CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDERS – doing nothing to stop each speculation bubble they caused.
To tighten too fast is bad economics.
There is zero inflation with oil removed from the mix.
The FED light bulb may go on as it precludes action that hurts in the end its own members. This time if the FED MIS CALCULATES we believe Law Maker staff who read this blog – will and fast – consider emergency legislation to merge the fed into Treasury. Such legislation would include:
- All Fed Process and policy making continue unchanged inside the USA treasury.
- The US General Accounting office ( finally ) audits the Fed now inside Treasury books for a final accounting.
- The debt owed to the Fed is calculated and the USA issues 100 year SUPER BONDS and pays off the Fed entirely and retires that final national debt to the crooks – over 100 years of time putting the USA in the black versus red ink in 18 months.
- The Fed reports the Treasury and is accountable.
- Checks and balances and Treasury printing money without interest charges – creating. a sustained USA in the RED with 300 years of forward prosperity.
Or not. Keep things as they are and pile up more USA debt and interest paid to the Fed and their criminal bank shareholders. DO THAT – if that makes sense to you you as voters.
In the MID year vote in candidates who have a FED POLICY moving forward . After all you have the power folks. USE IT.
in every country use it. Same in every nation today.
Merge Central Banks into state treasury for the reasons set forth. We are in real time digital Information Age. Markets need the truth. The markets regulate Treasury monetary policy in real time and no third party ripping off nations should be contracted to print money to what end? Their own profit.
Then look at real track record. All financial disasters have been central bank miscalculations due to greed conflict of interest to the real shareholders who in total secret – own and control the Fed just as shareholders do with any stock ownership company. Nations can not even audit who – The Who – owns what shares – as that was all firewall in the 80 page act of congress. Written by bankers and their attorney’s.
One day HOLLYWOOD will make a movie about the FED and when they do that film – the eyes are going to be opened. Perhaps I’ll write a NOVEL – THE FED IS DEAD. To become a screen play.
The truth about the FED being secret as the majority of American voters believe the FED is a institution of the federal government. That is not true in fact. Using the name FEDERAL is a form of fraud to the American people and they should begin research on line to see how true the facts are. Educate yourself voters.
The truth shall set you free.
Today the Fed may have the light bulb coming on ..we’ll see. If they slow the pace of normalizing – the markets will strengthen. If they do not the markets may weaken fast.
Thats the RISK ON …as always its all eyes on the Fed for good reason. Their track record. 100% failures no wins.
Berny Dohrmann – Opting for a FED merger into USA Treasury