WINTER – TRADE WARS – INTEREST – 2018
Some in the news suggest a 30% to 40% correction is coming.
Since Trump announced tariff’s on China – on a dime – China has stopped buying 60 million trade tons of our soybeans. They canceled 10)% of their American orders.
You read today the terrible trade mountain – we sell less than we buy from others – going broke economically safely and slowly – where months make up quarters quarters make up years and years finally make up decades then we are truly and utterly fucked – economically. If things do not change.
Trade wars are the final step, following fiscal debt speculations to alter markets into casino’s driven by debt, in which real shooting wars and world wars break out.
Trump the leader who dictated his own doctor report – that in his words stated – Trump is the most healthy President ever elected to the office. Trumps words dictated Ito his own Doctor report. This is the leader bringing you – congressionally approved and Lawfully signed by President Obama – hey we don’t honor our contracts – no reason to trust here – here is another reasons why not to trust the USA.
So we just had the first report where trade with the USA rose and trade deficits fell – in say Seven years. But much of that was soybeans. And all soybeans to our biggest buyer have stopped already because of why – Trump Policy on trade war.
I’m not saying the policy is right or is wrong. None of that.
I’m reporting economic consequence to the policy – is instant – unlike other historic periods, because it is based on oil.
We just had record US earnings across the reporting period – best record setting level of growth – productivity rises – trade surplus lowering versus rising and all taking place when?
While 60% of the USA was buried under snow and ice. The soils in our garden states average around 30 degrees to cold to plant inside this extended winter. Still small business confidence remains at record high levels. Going into what?
The spring. The Sunshine. When that 60% of winter effective productivity comes roaring back or America and eat world. WINTER has impact business and economics – but the records are still being set. What happens in October when they report on the summer figures. It will be pace setting we expect.
A trillion dollars has REBALANCED in the recent weeks. This means portfolio’s lopsided in equity investing or side bets which way and asset would go – have moved the side bets to bonds while investing in bonds to make their bets come in 7 to 11. Roll dice.
WHn a trillion dollars I a short time moves from equity investing to balanced fixed income ( bond ) investing the market takes its time to recover from that capital riptide moving – ebb to flow. Ebb to Flow.
RE-BALANCING will continue into the summer. The dollar is soaring in value. The bond market is soaring in opportunity. The ever higher interest rates give choices to capital to be-balance portfolios – take some profits and re-balance positions.
Fed rising interest too fast too soon will tipping point the market into correction territory. The wild card. No one knows. No one can predict. A mis-step by the FED is the most significant risk to the stability of the entire system moving forward.
All the news was good today – except for ELron Musk at Tesla sinking his own share – we submit so he can buy them at lower prices himself – a manipulation stock watch should tag to monitor. What a horrible disconnect from responsibly to shareholders . The ARROGANT CEO in todays capital co dependent market requires capital manners and Musk was ill mannered to say the least. A lot of us supporting Musk were more than disappointed. Horrified is more like it. I was thinking….is he taking something…what meds is he on?
Save for that incident the market is doing well. Oil is falling as we said it would. Soon the crash. Aw we said it will and it must. Those holding Long at Saudi’s jaw bone request will get slaughtered. As they are today as stock piles world wide are filling back to the brim. The world is drowning oil. Demand is falling off a cliff and OPEC is a criminal institutional cartel that is losing fortunes
We believe the ABSENCE Of WINTER will move USA markets to new highs. We believe a correct following those new highs is possible, based solely on Fed Aggression in interest rate rising on phony spin about inflation where with oil removed from the counter is NO INFLATION AT ALL.
Berny Dohrmann – ON WHAT IS GOING ON MAY 3rd 2018