HALF THE YEAR IS PASSING – MAY 1st WEEKEND REPORT
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HALF THE YEAR Is passing you buy in May.
OIL & REAL ESTATE
As an investment banker economist we believe oil demand self serving projections are bought paid for and wrong. Why?
We believe a transformation in oil supply is taking place. Consolidation normal to this level of a cycle is missing. In fact diversification in supply from growing shale technologies moving from China and mature in USA is opening NEW PLAYERS into the role of significance. Old players acquire new oil lakes or they perish.
Demand suggested to peak in 2050 is we feel in fact peaking right now. By 2030 demand will have dropped by levels oil forecasting has no new model for. The kilowatt hours moving from BTU oil and related fuel generation is plunging across the world. The most significant % of rising energy outside oil as source is dramatically expanding as to % and the GAP is widening.
So massive new oil supply is flooding the markets.
Historic down bubble in growth demand and over all demand is presenting forward contraction against flooding supplies.
Cartel criminal price controls as crimes against 7 billion human’s for elite greed agenda’s is a historic passing as market rate pricing plunges oil from the last CARTEL INFLUENCE ( ever ) in 2018 to the 50’s to stay there.
Long bets on oil will crash and burn in wild fires.
Short and Super Shorts on oil will make vast lakes of profits.
Oil is transforming from cartel control to market rate control for the reasons set forth.
Leverage in oil will reflect these economics and calls on credit on the wrong side of the bet will accelerate energy price moderation world wide for decades. The end of the criminal elite pricing scheme is upon us all – creating FULL PARTNERSHIP for nations across the globe.
The GIANT OIL TRANSFORMATION is taking place. Those betting in yesterday will lose it all – those betting on the future will win in fact. Thats our opinion for the coming 18 month tug of war on price controls.
REAL ESTATE – THE MOTHER OF ALL ASSET CLASSES
Manufacturing shelter an work spaces for humans, is the back bone economic of nations outside food – food production movement and packaging to market. Automotive manufacturing is next. Education is a tie. Nothing happens until humans learn something.
Today in Australia to Asia record credit is driving record real estate. The price rising reflects massive leverage into constructions. Entire cities exist in China with no one living inside them. No one.
This SUPER BUBBLE can not end well.
When the economic climate of expansion, taking place in Asia through rising debt – first 80% of GNP – than 15 years ago 170% of GNP and today over 300% debt to GNP for ten solid years – again this leverage Super Debt Bubble can not end well.
As the climate from the debt rubber band super cycle reaches a break point and the expansion economies of Asia Rim move to contraction recessionary economics to rebalance accounts – the depth and scale of the REAL ESTATE CRASHES certain to hard land in Asia are the tip of the economic ICE BERG. Why is that?
Well WHY is that the SUPER CRASH IN ASIA REAL ESTATE will land when owners require to refinance. The upside down trillions in lost property value — against negative carry cost in higher interest rate to finance or refinance – drive the spiral down down down the Rabbit Hole Alice.
DOWN DOWN DOWN….will this fall never ever end Alice wondered?
The SUPER CRASH in forward Asia Markets will be caused by a sudden CRASH in Real Estate. The REAL ESTATE hard landing moderating decades of abuse in these accounts economically, will push record BANK DEFAULTS INTO A CASCADE that will turn into a run on capital out of ASIA and their banks. The Banks will likely fail and go bankrupt. The state will be unable to save them. The total cost will exceed 100 trillion dollars US and take 30 years to recover from without war – faster with war.
Is there a way to get out of this tunnel without hitting a train?
Yes. With SUPER BONDS and a core shift in Asia monetary policy. Without both however there are zero options.
As no one is working on the SUPER BOND solution and policy change to integration new modeling – the hard landing is coming and the end does not turn out well for any of us world wide.
Credit abuse to drive economics must rebalance over time.
Today the digital markets SUPER CRASH economic rebalancing at speeds no one has experienced before.
It is our opinion that with the best intentions and no on truly to blame the forward risk to the world order – is CHINA – experiencing a hard landing and a SUPER CRASH triggering a first bankruptcy of nation in the digital casino capitalism. The ripple will effect us all to our tap root in economics.
Accounts must rebalance.
There are solutions to all this pain …but no one is exploring those solutions – YET.
For nations seeking SUPER BOND Options as a way forward contact Hughs and Hubbard leading sovereign bond to market law firm in DC and chat with senior partner Roel Campos about the SUPER BOND Option for your nation.
Or wait for the other shoe to drop. Its a size 11 Texas size cow boy boot with dust flowing up like an economic hydrogen explosion.
Berny Dohrmann – May 1st – SPRING FORWARD FINANCIALLY $