VOLATILITY AI SOFTWARE PROFITABLITY:
Many unknowns plague the Spring Market space. These unknowns include:
- Economic war outcome of Central Bank normalization policy – too soon and too fast for profits in market to absorb – the disintermediation between BOND YIELDS now soaring and the market declining yields – which may produce a real Spring correction that is lasting.
- One Off Inflation – Oil the cost of everything at price war with market dynamics – CARTEL OR SUPPLY DEMAND – tied to Fed policy which creates a future dollar soaring and a summer OIL crash – if that occurs – the forces of Central Bank policy may be offset by tax policy hitting markets and equities return to bull market till 2020. No one knows. No one can predict.
- Trade Wars for real – inflation rises which central banks want – and ACCOUNT BALANCES which the US TREASURY called on the IMF this WEEKEND – to moderate – begin to actually moderate from unsustainable trade imbalances between nations to a new post world war II scheme – in which no nation is left behind and FAIR TRADE replaces subsidy trade following the war periods. No one knows. No one can predict.
- Debt Default cascade ( our big fear ) due to record debt at consumer corporate and nation levels – with a spiral up in Debt that is so record breaking and historic – the debt avalanche can not sustain refinancing at higher interest rates. This for sure creates SUPER CRASH and world catastrophe in all market spaces due to error in central bank policy on time and graduation modeling in economics – going where no man or system has gone before – AI Globalized software trading which is without mercy for error in policy.
- Infrastructure – health care reform – entitlement reform and tax reduction II – if passed following mid year elections going republican – as a moderation to rising interest rates – and a stimulation to replace FED removal of stimulation too early – or if democrats win congress in mid year – NOT SO MUCH and risk on for SUPER CRASH just a matter of when spend to the end policies fail and system crashes.
We have HOPE the mid year election will display BACKLASH. The largest back lash is from the cross over votes on the President having his attorney searched like a KGB at 3 AM versus a due process collection of same information. The police state action has rattled all American’s and miscalculates the following.
The SPECIAL PROSECUTOR is not the ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE United States OF AMERICA.
The Special Prosecutor has a narrow mandate from the office of the ATTORNEY GENERAL to investigate Russia collision in the Federal elections of the President and Congress.
The Special Prosecutor does not have “legal authority” to now at his own justice abuse of due process and mandate open his investigation to STORMY DANIEL – Election Abuse – or any crimes for say Donald Trump’s attorney. Those outside the SCOPE OF THE OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR – whether you hate or love Trump – is wrong. That scope of other issues of law is the purview of the ATTORNEY GENERAL and the department of Justice not the Special Prosecutor. Upon finding NO ABUSE or collision in the election the office of the SPECIAL PROSECUTOR should retire or be retired. The on going “witch hunt” which is today is political – outside mandate of due process – and demonstrating the absolute need for JUSTICE REFORM Hillary and Trump both have stated is defacto urgent for our unborn generation.
This creates as American voters are SMARTER than spin doctors believe and “we all get IT” the real IT is bigger than WHO is in office – we get THAT. BACKLASH is when we vote in a congress of replicants that can govern and give us jobs, peace , infrastructure, and reforms to balance our budget in fact through American 5% Growth. We have done it before and we can do it NOW. Again.
The issue is for the world…..WILL WE DO IT?
The growth of record earnings are not able to sustain stock equity valuation rises, against rising bond market yields, in complex economics, which never lie. As the GNP falls, due to political not economic head winds, as the economy driven by wrong minded FED policy cools too soon too rapidly – the shift of trillions from equities going on now to bond higher safe yields bets ( not taking into account the higher risk of DEBT CASCADING DEFAULTS From ever higher interest ) – the markets are in for a wild ride.
If we had to bet today and we don’t – we would say;
- The markets will continue to correct in the SPRING PROIT TAKING from historic record highs to profit accounts with new % of capital moving to bond investing this Spring. Disintermediation of portfolio betting.
- The markets will stabilize this summer.
- The markets will rise into 2020 to 30,000 DOW and even 50,000 DOW over five to seven years – IF the congress goes Republican and if not – risk on – and these records will not be realized in 2019/2020.
- Following a bull summer forward period as the market rebalances the overall market will rise with the wild card of democrats winning and impeaching the President – a time money waste – that blocks legislation until the new President is elected.
- A 2019 late or 2020 SUPER CRASH driven by errors in global central bank policy – of tightening and normalizing on a schedule of sixty months that should have been ten years or longer in duration of graduations. The error can drive DEBT DEFAULT CASCADING inside a software AI global market to Liquidity Evaporation Day ( LED ) upon which the system itself freezes all trade stops and the every country for itself creates a system melt down worse than 1929.
We have suggested moving out on peaks to diversified insurance investing is the safe strategy for this period. If you wish to bet in casino capitalism with margin investing your capacity to “lose more than everything” rises in proportion to your strategy.
Today software and 10,000 Super Money pools control all liquidity and capital pricing and market activity. Wealth is consolidation to unsustainable levels. The illusion software moderates trading ranges fails to consider the parameter LIMITS OF SOFTWARE early generational designs, and digital war fare technologies on economics of nations – in which risk-less risk as a theory driving market makers today is a false assumption, as it was in real estate in 2007 – but far worse today. Why?
Leverage. The DECADE of global free money as diluted market diversity within capital pools manipulating prices outside regulatory frame works of nations. Today greed has no accountability by regulations developed for the centuries of paper trading markets versus global software managed markets a – five year shift that the world has never known in economics before.
We have lobbied in our blog, well read by treasury and leaders globally to initiate a G 100 ECONOMIC GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS. To develop a three year – hosted on the BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII most free of politics – an economist reform to GLOBAL TRADING RULES all nations ratify into final treaty over sixty months. Just this work would stabilize all markets. The mission is fair trade and NO NATION LEFT BEHIND within rule based trading.
Transparency and RECIPROCITY TRADE LAWS developed from this Congress of the G 100 World leading nations – defines – automation in all nations adjust MATCHING TARRIFF”s so that any nation inside the EGEC TRADE RULES automatically conforms in the global trading treaty nations. Those who raise tariff’s know everyone else matches those tariff’s – by automated software the TREATY requires of nations signing the new treaty. This way nations by rule of trade – conform to cooperate versus compete.
Further the NEW COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM presented in the Bible on this topic – the publication REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION at Amazon – creates a G 100 that care for one another versus profit and exploit one another. Maximum care and mutual respect under new rule of trade laws in digital space globally – versus todays screw unto others before thou are screwed unto insane trade policies we all inherited from others long dead.
Todays trade laws and regulations are fully obsolete.
We all need to modernize them.
We do this incrementally over enormous time lines.
Or we perish economically and then we do it.
Which way as Alice put her hand in wonderland on her head eating her tiny cake – which way ?
No one knows yet.
Berny Dohrmann – SUNDAY REPORT April 22nd 2018