FED IN RED ..ITS MORE THAN YIELD CURVE
Today we reside in the AGE OF SUPER CHANGE the title of my new book shopping to global publishers right this moment in time. This new ahead of market work defines the new thinking required to PROSPER in the Age of SUPER CHANGE. As you reside in SUPER CHANGE the first generation EVER to do so – the tools and tactics in this new book will drive it to best seller status world wide.
The Fed is populated by yesterday economists. They chart and graph against a market that no longer exists. Comparing to fifty years ago the 2018 FED Antique Data mix will no longer direct the global financial ships into the prosperous tomorrow we all wish for inside to the current ever accelerating new economics of SUPER CHANGE.
The first policy platform should be – WE EXIST INSIDE A NEW GLOBAL ECONOMY.
The new DIGITAL ECONOMY is new and never experienced ( nor anything close to it ) before in human record keeping. So whats new?
- The inter-linkage of all financial accounts into a digital system ever compressing in wealth consolidation and liquidity.
- The base of liquidity and circulation is for the first time consolidated into less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY POOLS and includes sovereign nation wealth funds that did not exist in 1929. The global consolidation of circulation and liquidity is a first in 2018 never known before.
- Trading is now an upside down pyramid of clearing at the bottom of the upside down pyramid and trillions trading through the pyramid via 10,000 Super Money pools at the top of the upside down pyramid of inverted liquidity. The base that was once broad and across enormous diversity of human investors is now consolidated into AI software managed trading platforms versus human managed funds – all in only five years.
- Speed – the speed of market wealth digital consolidation is unmatched in human history and remains rapidly accelerating within global Software AI wars to maximum profits in digital money management. No one has data or charts to predict the SUPER CHANGE to core economic modeling taking place due to AI software consolidated trading controlling new market liquidity risks. Risk unknown I prior economic theory.
- Leverage – the leverage – borrowing to invest – is new – and higher by ratio than any period ever recorded. Never has the debt investment reached proportions turning liquidity risk from great to gynormous as a new data set regulators have yet to catch up to given the acceleration of digital super change economics.
- Speculation – digital trading of trillions of dollars after 2008 and the crash – moved from human managed funds to computer managed circulations of capital – with side bets on which way asset price classes may go into the future – manipulating all prices in all asset classes ( unwanted economics ) – creating a phony market built on debt and leverage – which in micro review created the Great Depression of 1929. This form of investing was criminal from 1933 to 1999 when in the last term of the Bill Clinton Administration in the last Holiday three hour congress Christmas session the depression laws were vacated and crimes were made legal again. Super Change accelerated within digital landscapes no law maker could have foreseen.
- Trade wars – the last great trade war occurred in the 1927 period that ran up to the SUPER CRASH of 1929. The world is far more co dependent on global trade today than in 1927. And far more leveraged into debt investing. Trade wars today given wealth consolidation on liquidity and given speculation manipulating prices via debt investing – raise liquidity system risk to levels never seen before which the market tends to have flu shots over such risk – but flu shots don’t work on most flu ‘s ( financial contagion is now digital folks ). Old safe guards no longer apply to the leveraged global new casino capitalism made possible from 1999 to today for the first time in human economic history.
When the DEBT BOMB blows up – the trigger will not matter.
So the Fed within the most anemic recovery ever recorded takes two premature steps failing to note Japan failed to restart inflation over 20 years of stimulation – the FED is just ten from the crash and barely saved the system at core. It is too early to tighten but the FED relies on antique data which is in our opinion wholly obsolete. SO WHAT now ?
The Fed decides it will stop a remote unreal potential – of the US economy over heating which it is far far far from doing – in fact – and from super heating when there is zero signs the economy is super heating. There is no inflation. The Fed changes policy massively under its former head with this false assumption from old models that no longer are reality under – the worst chairwoman in 100 years in our opinion for her wrong minded ill timed policy shift. She elects to:
- Stop buying bonds and cease to stimulate the global growth.
- Begin selling trillions of crap bonds the Fed bought from distressed banks who are all Fed member insiders.
- Begin “rapidly” raising interest rates while it removes liquidity – sucks up liquidity selling its own insider crap bonds – while selling record treasury debt to market all at the same time the cost to borrow on all that bond roll over as COST is soaring as the Fed raises profits for its members – insider investment banks and banks by far too rapidly raising interest rates – killing the shallow growth as their trigger a SUPER CRASH. The FED is always the cause never look further.
The market can not absorb this failed FED policy plan at this moment in time. So what happens as unintended consequence to the FED moving at warp drive on its wrong minded POLICY versus going on same agenda in the slow lane? Why can’t the FED get more data and go more slowly is the right policy question? The risk of sinking the recovery is greater than the risk of any potential for over heating which is decades away not NOW.
First the Treasury is now competition with the FED. Treasury must sell this quarter 250 billion in bonds to fund the 1.3 trillion USA spending more than you make budget. Buyers are not turning up in a TRADE WAR world to buy the USA debt and the treasury is near panic mode in case you did not now – as the world in trade war remains divided by competition versus cooperation. What happens if the US TREASURY hold future auctions and no one showed up – the bond tranches were unsold? Panic? How big a risk is that? And why take it NOW? Cab drivers get this folks truly.
The Fed is selling at the same time trillions of its bonds in a market that lacks liquidity to accommodate those bond sales and grow a fragile recovery – via a very tired slow recovery globally in which the IMF and Fed keep adjusting their growth targets back down when real numbers arrive. Or said another way the old economics is not working inside SUPER CHANGE NEW ECONOMICS of 2018 – DIGITAL CASINO ECONOMICS – and their models are therefore WRONG WRONG WRONG.
The risk is crises.
Why risk crises?
I don’t know. I don’t understand when other options exist.
So what is GOING ON OUT THERE in the market headwater where all rivers source ( nations starting with the USA ) in liquidity at core in global markets? First their is shallow water. THERE IS VERY LIMITED LIQUIDITY LEFT and old economics is not charting liquidity and time with proper weighting – but in the new DIGITAL ECONOMY such data information is critical.
Now back to yield curve.
So the yield compares short term borrowing debt using a premium to longer term borrowing debt usually a discount. The yield curve flattening means the yield curve rising to 3% and higher in short term debt is being MATCHED by long term debt.
Said another way the cost to borrow is soaring. Across the board.
Soaring for nations.
Soaring for corporations.
As debt cost “roll over” and bonds are re-financed the low free money cost days roll over into SOARING NEW COST. What is the problem that is new in SUPER CHANGE?
Said another way – nations and corporations hold record debt. As this debt rolls over – as there is no money to pay that debt off – the new roll over cost is 100% to 200% to 300% higher – which means such loans in roll over can’t be maintained. The corporations or nations lack liquidity surplus to pay such massively higher % costs. Keep that fact in mind as you see the DEBT BOMB explode soon and Blame central banks as a failed system model that needs to merge all central banks back into their national treasuries for oversight and accountability which owned by their member banks – central banks have zero accountability. The appearance they are accountable is fraud in fact. Study up. Google FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD FRAUD or just see one video …
I put this video into your BOOK MARK because you are kept from knowing in school. This is economics 101 and WHY the FED needs to be merged by emergency act of congress back into US treasury. Take a moment and share this truth with those you truly care for.
First the corporate and nation debt is at all time high plateaus’ never before experienced – higher than 1929 – higher than ever before. Second the liquidity to absorb the massive debts. being refinanced is not robust enough ( in our models and I don’t know what models the Fed is using or the Treasury is crystal balling into ) to have capacity to absorb the DEBT ROLL OVER in the USA – EU – CHINA and the world in 2018 and 2019. There IS NOT ENOUGH LIQUIDITY.
Third the higher rising interest costs bankrupt many record holding institutions – nations and corporations who can not elevate interest without collapsing their surplus or profits. They are way too thin inside a recovery which is not yet strong enough from 2008 – to have capacity to refinance the existing debt loads at the higher FED produced interest cost. 100% of percent higher in the debt roll over trillions must compete for liquidity right when in a fragile recovery the FED and the TREASURY and CHINA and SAUDI and Japan and the EU are all taking up global liquidity leaving none for investment and growth. A recession must follow if not worse. Economics 101.
As debt entering the market to refinance is a pressure to the low market liquidity yields on debt soaring to levels as unintended consequence of BAD FED TIMING ON POLICY. crises unfolds. In our opinion the world markets need more time to build LIQUIDITY CAPACITY – a longer stimulation period – and the FED WRONG timing is BAD BAD POLICY and creates SUPER RISK for a SUPER CRASH. Not a correction like we are seeing right now. Far Far worse.
The yield curve flattening means the prices for long term bond ( debt by legal contract and agreement in any form ) is matching or exceeding short term debt with no discounts and only risen premiums. LIQUIDITY is barely holding together as TRILLIONS in 2018 leave equities that make 3% to 5% over time lines up and down to fixed income investing in BONDS where returns are now soaring in higher interest profit YIELDS – due to FED POLICY. Still that liquidity is not sufficient to absorb say 250 billion of just TREASURY DEBT let alone TRILLIONS OF WORLD Sovereign nation debts hitting markets.
Liquidity is the circulation of resources.
As the yield curve flattens serious global recessions have always followed. Why would the economics change now?
The free resources circulating in a very marginal recovery, is not sufficient to off set the demand of DEBT MARKETS and EQUITY markets wealth transferring to yield curves rising. When the Liquidity liquidity threshold is exceeded we have LED or liquidity evaporation day ….
Think of LED is at the new RISK reported here for years now.
LED is the 2018-2019 RISK EVENT where digital consolidated trading – a NEW SUPER CHANGE EVENT – removes human consideration and moderation to risk to balance trading. Digital trading by software AI design seeks to MAXIMIZE PROFITS without consideration to social outcomes globally. PROFIT is the only driver. PROTECTING YIELDS. Liquidity evaporation is a consequence of digital consolidation of capital into only 10,000 super money pools now controlling all markets world wide. As digital linkage tightens the liquidity LED risk soars.
Wait for it…..
The notion of the young brains designing the software is that they have included all known parameters of risk management inside their modeling is a fatal flaw and untrue. This is in fact in this early five year period of DIGITAL DOMINANCE TO GLOBAL TRADING misplaced intelligence within economic arrogance that has brought humanity countless world wars. . Of course the code planners in first generation digital AI markets have failed to include missing parameters. They can not KNOW what they simply DO NOT know. One missing parameter is LIQUIDITY itself. The 2018 -2019 code does not accommodate “absence” OF LIQUIDITY nor of LIQUIDITY as controlling profit and price itself, given outside central bank and nation planning to PRICE a rapidly declining liquidity that will command future markets outcomes in fact. LED day.
Economics desires a broad liquidity and laws that are sane seek to deprecate unwanted influences to consolidate liquidity or to consolidate circulation SOURCES. The Great Depression planners made laws that were global to moderate consolidations of liquidity and to criminalize unwanted speculations.
When we have both made legal we have two events now digital for the very first time in what we call CASINO CAPITALISM – the cause of the last Great Depression.
Capital markets self destruct when capital circulations invest in massive ratio into side bets versus real economic investing in plants equipment business and growth – into profit making side bets to manipulate all prices for everything – side betting say 70% to 30% where side bets are maximum counters to real circulation versus real investing. Casino betting which was criminal and is now legal and who is to blame? Greenspan and the Congress is who. Side bets to influence and manipulate prices for all asset classes within ranges – in theory – to remove risk and create risk-less risk when in SUPER CHANGE reality SUPER RISK has now entered digital casino space world wide.
All depression safe guard life guard with rule of laws which are now evaporated in the 1990’s. Economic crimes before 1999 are now legal to execute. Consolidations never seen before remain unchallenged world wide. The current system is so flawed billions strive to death annually when food to feed them all easily exists. Said another way the present post war system failed to upgrade and is economically – insane. Today institutions commit crimes that sap trillions from the system – reward criminals with billions in bonus money – and all of it is without real consequence as that criminal acceleration for profit is moving to warp drive. System destruction follows such insane break downs of common sense laws over economics. Politics has ruined the economic system which historically ends in SUPER CRASH and WORLD WAR. The criminals than profit from slaughtering all of us – and the insanity regroups.
Today we have system risk to the world order as the world has NEVER BEFORE KNOWN globally. No nation unaffected.
Bill Clinton reading my book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION stated on MEET THE PRESS – “we either cooperate and prosper or we compete and we perish”. New Cooperative Capitalism within upgrade global rule of law – no nation left behind rules – or we world war and perish. Sanity or insanity.
Wealth has consolidated so the tiny % of 10,000 elites hold all wealth circulation and the massive % are no longer an influence % base to circulation. This unwanted economic outcome is the consequence of a break down in economic rule of law. See the upside down pyramid. All prices you now pay = for all asset classes are set by ranges of digital AI in one chaps profit wars with the other chaps profit wars one AI software platform at a time – all in AI wars spiraling consolidation and trading volumes.
Prices for energy and food are artificial taxes for Super Money pools as the major crime against all humanity – billions of all of us. It is an economic fact. FREE MARKETS? Like the fairy tale – once upon a time – since 1999 – not so much.
What else is new?
24/7 trading volume in which software forges the global open markets 24/7 profit taking and making inside massive velocities without oversight. Profit making that never ends. Wealth spirals to ever greater consolidations until the system liquidity is no longer sustainable. We are close now.
Take the Bank of America slap on the wrist recent fine for fraud. Deposit money is now investing in enormous leverage in DARK POOLS meaning no nation can even now who is trading or what is trading. Bank of America and Merril Lynch told deposit holders that their money was invested and managed by them. In fraud it was managed ( they agreed it was fraud ) by third parties in DARK POOLS that are legal ways to avoid regulations.
In Super Change the trades are all digital AI and in the cloud for the first time and all regulations are local and no longer apply to the money in circulation 24/7 globally.
This means the depression risk of 1929 is so much worse today. Why?
The post war system can collapse entirely -banks and institutions can go bankrupt at speeds never known before.
Since 2008 the money institutions have been exempt by the FED and Treasury form Frank Dodd and other law rules. Too Big to fail was not only NEVER FIXED but they have grown to TOO BIG TO JAIL. See Wells Fargo Deutsch Bank and Bank of America and Citi Corp and Chase for some examples – google and research. The trend of criminal money management is soaring as AI DIGITAL seeks to maximize profit at any social cost including risk to the core system.
There is another item you need to consider. The natural human capacity to “feel” some one in authority is on top of this and all over it – is false. The largest lobby is WALLSTREET.
As the depression laws were evaporated in 1999 before Christmas (slow news day ) and all other nations followed – banks and investment banks became one. Deposit could be invested in highly speculative ( profit making for a time ) side bets at fantastic leverage. Say one deposit dollar could be AI margined in a dark pool at 50 to 1 margin which places RISK at levels never before known to any financial system.
Said another way – your bank deposits are not in the bank. They are invested in risk the world has never experienced before. Even that is reaching a point where liquidity is not sufficient to absorb the rising interest cost as enough TIME ( time is an economic asset too under considered ) is too short to rebuild profits sufficiently to absorb the 2018 and 2019 LIQUIDITY world DEMAND.
China borrows 300% of its GNP. Many EU nations borrow 200% or close to it.
Rolling those trillions over into higher interest cost is not economic today. They can’t do it.
WE just need MORE TIME.
Block Chain is not going to save you. Why? Because EMP pulse in the next world war wipes out all digital records – including your block chain account in 30 minutes of time. Your thought you will have digital anything is silly. Ideally you own some diamonds which is the last safe haven not heavy gold or silver all manipulated. Ask any Jew who migrated from the NAZIS insanity – with table legs filled with Diamonds. But hey – invest in bit coin and remember I told you. Liquidity is the issue folks. If 23,000,000 total bit coins were bought by 23,000,000 at one dollar and they sold to billions at 18,0000 dollars – how much is lost again? How many billions in months? Wiped OUT. Jamie Diamond at Chase tried to tell you and so did I. But hey – proceed at your own RISK.
The SUPER CHANGE velocity ( the data in my new book makes it all so clear ) is so fast and so accelerating that THEY those adults you think will protect us – are so far behind the real data as are the Wall Street Lobby folks who lack perspective on the new spiral of SUPER CHANGE making all their charts and predictions bogus in fact. NO ONE IS PROTECTING a world now moving into trade wars. Again.
Why? No one has the data we are in an entirely new economic model. No one gets it who makes real choice as they are blinded by current account profit making. I know I was one of them running a public investment banking firm for years. I understand my tribe.
The trade wars started to heat up in 2008 during the crash. The crash a feature of what we are setting down in this blog was a first shot across the global liquidity system since World War II’s BOW. Liquidity evaporated and the system froze up. Trillions were printed and poured into circulation to restart liquidity. As prices deflated and from Real Estate which never can go down ( property – like yours – lost half and more than half of its values in a single year ) and all asset classes deflated – the actual core cause of world depressions. Everyone panicked to restart inflation. Deflation panics world leaders utterly. They lack tools outside wars to fight it.
Japan has not restarted inflation despite trillions of yen in accommodations to 2018 – Japan still has deflation no inflation. We should learn from Japan. WE NEED MORE TIME. To fix ourselves.
So against very incomplete data and information the central banks are stopping accommodation and tightening circulation or liquidity without any SUPER HEATING of any kind or inflation of any nature. WRONG minded and wrong timing. THE FED IS REMOVING LIQUIDITY FROM WORLD MARKETS AT A TIME OF CRISES LIQUIDITY IN WORLD MARKETS DUE TO SOARING DEBT IN PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTORS. THE FED IS ALSO MAKING DEBT ROLL OVER ECONOMICALLY FATAL FOR TRILLIONS IN GLOBAL ECONOMICS TODAY.
Trade wars are now moving from silent cold wars of tariff and restriction with EVERY NATION IN IT FOR THEMSELVES versus a total global cooperation – competition – is the liquidity killer globally. TRADE WARS CREATE ECONOMIC DOWNWARD SPIRALS AND REMOVE LIQUIDITY TO RISK THE CORE SYSTEM TO OPERATE AT ALL. LED DAY.
As we heat up trade wars to real wars watch the economics.
LIQUIDITY in the new AI DIGITAL profit parameters of price manipulation inside a casino capitalism may collapse the world order inside a SNAP moment or single default trigger event. the outcomes is new and we call it it our models DIGITAL CASCADE INTO LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION DAY. LED is now the SUPER RISK.
All Digital moves with AI to sell on LED and no buy orders exist to off set the sell orders. Everyone is getting out and moving to diversified insurance investing way too late and liquidity stops completely. Then you can’t get out while your wealth evaporates daily to new lows. In the 1973 oil embargo before it was all digital – mutual funds cued investors up for 12 to 18 months to get out – while their holdings evaporated. Untold wealth was lost. LED day.
Why diversified insurance investing? In my opinion insurance money management remans the last safe refuge. Why? Insurance money pools remain fully regulated by the most conservative money management remaining RULE OF LAW over WEALTH POOLS. Investors earn the highest returns permitted by law with principle guaranteed still permitted by law with tax benefits for any business owner. You can tax deduct investing and you should. Taxes help you build money pools earning highest rates of compounded returns while you can always get your money OUT. Seek insurance firms that paid during the period of 1930 when the banks were fully closed. Chose them as you explore the option but don’t delay. There are no dark pool investing inside insurance investing. Insurance firms invest in real economics. The rest do not. Insurance money pools remain the last and only we feel TRULY SAFE HAVEN money pools outside the casino. Stop thinking life insurance. THINK SAFE HAVEN INVESTING where life protection is like a FREE OPTION to making the investing – a perk if you will and tax deductible potentially come on? Step up to safe harbor. However Banks and Institutions are trying to change laws to buy insurance firms to be able to put those last larger money super pools into their own dark pool off shore leveraged casino for profits. We’ll see. That lobby battle is endless. I think Congress gets it.
We believe the risk for a serious correction and Super Crash all lay ahead and are immediate risks to you.
IF you have your investing in AI digital money investing you are inside the casino. You might move back to MANAGED human accounts as an insulation. I would explore that. Or better yet world wide diversified insurance investing as you grow nest egg wealth. SAFE HARBOR is your answer to wealth preservation but timing is right NOW.
Ideally you would move out of bonds and out of equities and invest in diversified insurance investing and use that fully liquid investing to buy into smart real estate and hold for inflation which is a long way into the future. If you must remain in the casino have humans manage not AI manage your wealth.
Investing for short term profit is a casino bet. Investing for long term profit is not.
Short term liquidity is the risk and you now know why.
Research it all yourself.
Financial news is opaque and those joining me write in jargon that outside the industry is not easy to decipher from press but confirmation of the data I’m presenting to my readers is all over the global press is daily today. Look for it. supporting may conclusions of opinion is out there folks research it.
Finally the US Savings rate is at its lowest point ever. No nation can prosper without that saving rate rising. WE NEED MORE TIME. Individual savers have not had wage gains and they can not save today or until they see those wage gains over TIME. WE need more time. Without rising savings the liquidity factor is about at the tipping point and trade wars will accelerate the tipping point to LED day.
The Fed is dead on policy that works.
The Fed – the cause of all financial destructions with their member criminal banks needs to MERGE ( keep all Fed processes ) but hold the FED Accountable by merging the FED back into the US Treasury. That would give the world MORE TIME. And oversight for our policy for the firs time since 1910 – see the film I included for you and make a book mark to share the film of pure data on the FED:
No one is protecting YOUR nest egg.
No rule of law.
Super Change has bypassed everyone as it all occurred so fast and is still accelerating. PUTIN said – “whoever wins the AI war will control the entire world”. Do you believe the USA has a policy like the space race to WIN the AI wars?
Read Kevin FREEMANS GAME PLAN to discover – no we do not – and worse why we are loosing – and how to make your own GAME PLAN as the USA is not creating a game plan for US. Read and become self reliant. The data proofs are out there folks. Become informed fully. Its your future and your money. DO nothing and it is already too late.
Yesterday was already too late as January was your peak. We told you scroll back and see.
The best way to get through he coming Super Change is to own your own business in the age of the entrepreneur. Explore in the ENTREPRENEUR age WHY with 7 million USA new businesses formed just in 2017 by researching
and make a book mark to share CEO SPACE with those you care most about. Click QUICK LINKS and see some video’s they are short. Growing a cooperative trading community builds safe harbor for those inside that community. CEO SPACE accelerates entrepreneur growth inside community. Community keeps us all safe and CEO SPACE community is in over 100 nations and ranked the # 1 conference in the world in 2018 by third party press.
Fail to do that – and not so much – looking ahead.
Book mark my blog and check back now and again.
Share this blog with the circle you care most for asking them to book mark the truth.
NOW YOU “KNOW” WHAT IS GOING ON OUT THERE
Berny Dohrmann The tea leaves you read are always economic— March 29, 2018