30% MARKET CORRECTION ? MOVE TO DIVERSIFIED INSURANCE INVESTING AND RIDE THROUGH AT PEAK MAKING MAXIMUM:
The IMF the US the experts the World Bank – when they are wrong they are wrong. Their estimates for Global Growth will all be plunging down since the first quarter is so pathetic. Soft is not the word for it.
Now consider the optimism for 5% growth in some markets is silly as we get the real numbers.
First the economics are driven by consumer buying and consumption. Economies grow because the Gov spends, the consumers spend or both spend.
The consumer is maxed out. Their credit lines and credit cards are maxed out. There is no more wiggle room to buy our way forward. While this is all going on the cost of everything ( Oil ) is rising 40% because of greedy cartels not because of supply and real demand. As we have reported the world is downing in oil. There is no shortage.
This is important because right at the time we have had TEN YEARS of zero inflation and a terrible recovery of marginal 2% growth – just – the risk to debt ridden economics is frankly FANTASTIC. Eventually all that debt has to rebalance folks – it is after all economics not politics.
interest rates rising steadily – to fast too soon for economic real sustained growth ( the Fed just creates these mess’s and then creates the next crash ). Honestly I can’t think of one Fed policy over since 1907 that has not been a failure – that they never are held responsible for outside economists who really know the data. For this reason I have argued for years the FED needs to merge back into the US treasury. The Fed you see is the CAUSE.
Already new home sales have declined for months since “normalization” is new FED policy in 2018. The right policy is 20 year normalization not this pace they are on. The economics are far too fragile. Globally.
Further there is no inflation. If you take PHONY OIL PRICING out of the mix – moderating by US soaring output – the dollar rises as the # 1 petro currency – trade deficits are moderating by national policy and by oil exporting. Rebalancing is under way and the Fed won’t go slow. The Fed will pursue their failed policy and the no heed to the market correction.
So the consumer has no way UP to drive growth coming forward in 2018. In 2% growth the multiples of 16 to 19 times earnings are absurd but premiums for Face book and Video chip makers at 25 times earnings and higher – is non economic These rich prices are artificial froth and must rebalance again as economics. The ratio’s are out of all charts and must rebalance and they will.
We have new range trading by software and AI. A never experienced before in markets. I think the correction should be softer but in fact is likely to be larger say 30% ( more ) due to the AI and liquidity glitches in the global trading inter connected core CODE. It is faulty based on incomplete math economically. The thinking that ranges can be contained is false and the blood bath is going to be new and nothing like prior models – due to velocity and global 24/7 trading and speeds and volumes of 10,000 Super Money pools seeking to protect their positions. In absolute terms.
As the new 5 year fully integrated SOFTWARE AI market has yet to experience a 2008 or anything like it – we’ll all have to structure to price, value, global trading – all in young software designers heads without the experience – which is NEW and never known before in global markets – turns out.
As the long positions in such markets enjoy blood baths in the down turn, and trillions are investing in side bets in casino capitalism to manipulate asset class pricing ( which was illegal 1933 to 1999 ) the risk we feel ends badly. The software KIDS as we call them will never learn and only HUMANS or managed traders are apt to out perform the software AI coming up – take HEED Warren Buffet and tribe to this blog.
For five years we have moved from 10% hand free trading for software and AI in global markets to what soon will be 80%. Sixty months. The markets of the world are dominated where every dollar invested is many multiples with credit margin and leveraged trading – and all the smarty pants believe this is risk-.less risk. Loss can be contained.
I find such conclusions mind boggling. I find such conclusions immature for the speed of SUPER CHANGE To global price points now manipulated by software and AI.
Today there is a SOFTWARE “WAR”. Consider that WAR as the start of WORLD WAR III as all wars begin economically and than move to serious protectionism and trade wars before they move to Super Crash and real shooting wars. Looking only at history.
President Putin stated THE NATION THAT WINS THE AI WARS WILL RULE THE WORLD.. As you know Putin intends to win that war but so does the EU and China and the USA.
No one today can predict the GREAT AWAKENING of self aware self learning new species of AI which moves forward without humanity in any context. No one has even thought through how that all unfolds for say “US” – we the people. No one.
Well I have and my new book DIGITAL MANNERS lays it out for you – and surprisingly its not all that gloomy.
Economically I suggest that:
- The global system is inefficient to manage 7 to 10 billion humans across many 100’s of national captains all steering their ships to different outcomes and horizons. Economically.
- A new GLOBAL SYSTEM and new GLOBAL REGULATIONS are required to develop COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM and to replace competitive communism and competitive capitalism both failed models for economics that always lead to world wars.
- The NEW SYSTEM can be brought into existence by COOPERATION between the G 100 nations if they desire it – within three to five years top.
- A Planetary Earth Federation respecting sovereignty of all nations within an ECONOMIC BOX TOP NEW RULE SET that leaves no nation behind – ever – is possible. Outlined in my book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION in detail for national leaders who see the hand writing on the old walls.
- Now all nations operate in revised fiscal game plans, within a global “dollar” that we all share into with sanity as we replace competition with cooperation in our thinking. A higher level of thought itself for economics – a new economic model.
Can we as humanity do better?
Can we top the boom bust cycles of competition?
If we could why would we NOT step into such improvement?
If competitive thought remains the ONE and the ONLY CORE VIRUS on human thought collectively – why would we not move into the integrity of COOPERATION between ourselves and resist the impulse to compete at all? Why would we not care for one another? Why would we not assure we are sheltered and fed and the environment is clean.
Economics under competition operate on a box top rule set of:
Competition to develop maximum profits at any social cost or expense to achieve the profit outcome for elite shareholders …
Cooperative Capitalism develops maximum social contribution while making a profit…..huge difference in principled outcome. PRINCIPLED COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM.
Competition violates human integrity for greed. A system core failure.
Cooperation requires integrity and is self correcting around integrity the DNA of sustained cooperation. A system success.
The old economic theories are simply in error and do not take humanity rising to 10 billion souls where we all need to arrive.
New improved economics modernize the world into a way we can and should find celebration for all diversity of systems nations and humanity and stop punishing what is different and celebrate what is unique and different. Its all OK. Nothing has to change but the economics so everyone prospers collectively.
The first priority of the new economics is human education. Elevating full partnership via education – reformed education – with cooperation versus competition as a basis – reforms partnership for all humans.
The present model is squandering billions of human potential ( us all ) and perpetuating a failed model of uniformity to educate all humans to full partnership with each other including new AI about to be created self realizing and born.
Only a specific educated human a fraction of humanity can even read or understand this blog. Only a tiny % of economists can step out of what they know into what is truly possible outside what they now at this moment.
Economics needs a revolution.
While that unfolds either by war and destruction of the old systems – which is historic again – or without such human slaughter for the first time in our RACE – the HUMAN RACE that has NO FINISH line it comes down to consciousness.
Are we gaining sufficient consciousness to design a partnership that is far better than what we know right this moment? The risk as I see it will be failure to elevate that consciousness in leadership to resolve the transformation from an antique flawed and utterly awful global economics model into a far better way made possible by AI and our inter-linkage today.
I continue to write that where politics leads economic we are doomed to repeat history and no ONE is truly responsible. I use the children”s nursery song – THREE BLIND MICE SEE HOW THEY RUN to example global leaders of over 300 sovereign nations rushing off an economic cliff.
When economics runs politics we win.
When politics runs economics we destroy ourselves in wars.
Our we yet awake enough to chose a higher ground?
For another example consider this item. Humanity has a zero chance to survive. The earth is flying through a rock storm blizzard. The chance we will have geological activity to wipe us all out – or an incoming event that is 100% for sure going to wipe us all out – to no pain to the earth – she’ll just rebirth a new self aware child of herself. She has all the time and we as recent travelers on her – are watching our time run out.
We could channel defense of the PLANET and all nations in cooperative Federated Constitutions uniting all nations – while retaining full sovereignty of all nations – economically. A new system of COOPERATIVE CAPITALISM. The more efficient defense could now deploy systems to preclude incoming events as we restore the earth itself with tera forming to its optimization.
If we don’t are we not insane, as we all die.
If we do we thrive and we can support trillions of humans and terraform earth into the stars bringing immortality to the earth diversity into the universe as we enjoy never ending discovery and longevity.
Is competition to extinction insane?
Is cooperation into immortality sane.
The economics presently are insane.
New sane economics will rise up if we have time.
Meanwhile in 2018 the system globally is running along on unsustainable economic of DEBT to propel nations. This must rebalance.
Inside the economics the SPRING correction we predicted – for years as Spring 2018 – after all it is simple economics folks and we present the tea leaves for our readers to at least protect their own wealth and nest eggs
Those who act will.
Those who stay in the casino will have bad hair days.
Blame will never land properly. Because politics run the failed economic system.
Until we create a REVOLUTIONARY GLOBAL IMPROVED ECONOMIC MODEL for the benefit of all of us -all nations – collectively – we have a lot of pain ahead – within wild ups and wild downs – that are likely to arrive ever more rapidly as the global system destabilizes.
As it must.
Failed economic systems are unforgiving in the end for abuse of economic laws.
As it is low cost and easy to explore the better way it seems insane we don’t even try to explore a better model.
CEO SPACE my institution works to alert national leaders who THINK about such core issues, to options.
It is all about options.
This spring the options are running out of time.
The correction IS coming.
And that – for all the reasons you can scroll through – print page on – share with those you email with – IS what iS REALLY going on out there. As far from the next tweet as you can get to as you THINK for yourself.
There is so much to be done out there. Keeping our kids safe. Assuring Black Lives do matter all lives DO matter.
Really? That is what is the focus of a nations attention? Truly?
Who cares given the world we live in who makes love with who and when any more? It has no meaning to outcome and core economics other than waste. Water of time money and distraction to the real issues we all need to put into priorities. In the PRIORITY list globally the Stormy Daniels from Australia to the EU have no relevance. WHO CARES what happens between adults ?
METOO. That matters as woman need to be safe. Woman need to never be prey.
That is different.
Rule of law is different. Priorities folks.
While I like sit com’s like we all do and entertainment is human relaxation, the White House sit com should be other than an entertainment to the world.
Media from todays press conference 80% at the White House on Stormy Daniels when a 30% wipe out of trillions in global wealth is a risk near term – it seems to me media needs to help us all stay focused on real priorities. Economics not political entertainment.
Competitive Capitalism keeps us focused on scandal and human fragile flaws of just being human we all need to forgive one another for. If George Washington had many mistresses and black children and grew pot – and if John F Kennedy loved Marylin Monroe really – both led well despite being human. Media in those days kept priorities and issues on higher ground.
Can we return to that higher ground?
I think we can and I think we will.
A few of you educated awake beings read and share my blog on THINKING. Higher thinking. Human potential – the real priority.
My passion is to spend the last years of my own life in service to your human potential and no one else’s . Thank you for reading and returning now and again. To media and institutional readers thank you for considering this information and data as another process for your own decision and outcomes.
You are all unbelievably appreciated for reading.
Berny Dohrmann – ON WHAT IS GOING ON …OUT THERE REALLY !