BLACK SWAN EVENT – TARIFF’S ?
In my popular book on Amazon – often backordered and sold out – REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION – I detail economic history for 2000 years competitive capitalism – a modified economics for feudalism which remains:
- Consolidation of wealth which negatively effects circulation – where 1% own more wealth than 99% – a system instability.
- This creates a melt down event due to a first liquidity event. We experienced our 1927 moment in 2008.
- This creates TRADE WAR SPIRALS between still consolidating wealth of nations further effecting global circulations.
- This historically creates a BLACKSWAN or tipping point – where the unstable SYSTEM cascades into SUPER CRASH and global circulation freezes – the system itself core fails.
- Economic accounts rebalance via world wars – the last great rebalancing being World War II only 70 Plus years ago.
Today there is a great rebalancing in the world circulation and wealth. Digital casino capitalism now controlled by software for the first time in market and in human history – creates an unimaginable speed to wealth consolidation via global merger. The impact on circulation risk – or CR – is higher than 1929 to 1933. The laws passed in 1933 to assure we never repeated the causes of the depression:
- Rampent market speculations where the % of trading in which way assets classes may go – like a casino – versus stake holder real economic investing was by ratio many time greater in side bets – to the real market – as it is now only worse – due to digital betting.
- Rampent debt and leverage to fuel the ratio to the highly speculative betting over real economic risk taking as a great blur took place as to the real risk aspect of all such side betting.
- Regulations controlled the economic betting but regulations did not control the side bets. Depression laws made such side betting crimes. In 1999 Congress tore up depression laws and made such side betting legal. Now the velocity of side betting as in 1929 is leveraged beyond depression leverage – and manipulates all asset classes price ranges. There are even pools of side betting further winding up the system failure points as to forward liquidity all outside any regulation. Laws are local the trades are in the cloud.
- Circulation and liquidity are features of less than 10,000 money pools where the market is more than 75% circulation from less than 10,000 super money pools and 25% base line circulation from global spreads of buyer groups – a Black Swan event effects all the market liquidity in 90 seconds digitally a new way to collapse liquidity to zero.
- The climate to permit higher ratio of debt – say 50 to 1 margin trading – never seen in 1929 and other factors of a Super Debt Bubble all largely unregulated – present system core risk globally.
The pattern of capitalism outlined in REDEMPTION which presents solutions before time runs out to world law makers and leaders who seek economic education – has reached the breaking point. The spiral of trade wars is now tightening.
The economic challenge to policy makers globally is that SUPER CHANGE has passed their ability to both understand or adapt to the rapidly changing frame work of digital global circulations.
The core economics however never Change as we march toward a global system rebalancing via a SUPER CRASH ( always historic economically ) system collapse – and world war to rebalance. The world is marching into world war via competition and competitive thinking versus cooperation and collaborative thinking.
Tariff policy is the end of TRADE WARS rising from simmer since 2008 to full boil globally. Rational defense of the trade war spiral against a consolidation of wealth to system circulation instability is of no consequence to the developing SUPER CRASH and total system failure due to unresolved debt rebalancing globally.
As politicians find it far to painful to rebalance debt system abuse over time the favored process is SUPER CRASH and a period we call BLAME GAME and a world war to resolve responsibility by distraction to CORE CAUSE – politics leading economics versus economics leading politics. Bam the system fails in 90 seconds. Digitally for the first time.
A BLACK SWAN event is a trigger event that switches all market orders in digital space for 10,000 SUPER MONEY Pools to sell, with zero buyers – and trillions spiral the markets into SUPER CRASH world WIDE. All financial institutions fail all at once when this event trigger occurs.
Runs on banks occur and banks – bankrupt – close.
The GREAT REBALANCING BEGINS.
Is it wise given the system vulnerability to evoke TRADE WAR TARIFF policy as a potential near term BLACK SWAN to move the DOW to 6400 from a current level?
The risk that a global trade war will BLACK SWAN the next SUPER CRASH and WORLD WAR is higher than anytime since 1929. Without such an event the world can enjoy five to seven years of expansion.
Depending on what President Trumps team really executes – within a higher understanding of the RIPPLE RISK will dictate the pathology of the past – or something new.
The problem remains politics running economics versus economics running politics. For those who wish FULL CLARITY on today’s events I recommend you have the circles you love and wish to assure create SAFE HARBOR from the developing economic STORMS – read REDEMPTION the COOPERATION REVOLUTION at Amazon. I would not delay long on that for your own safe harbor plan.
BERNY DOHRMANN – ON WHAT “IS” GOING ON OUT THERE
PS: President Trump made many jokes last night at dinner – it was funny – sort of like when Nero fiddled and Rome burned to the ground kind of funny…….given this blog..the 10,000 SUPER MONEY pool managers and heads of nations – folks they have read my book and are moving to protect themselves in down markets to follow.