THE REAL NEWS MOVING INTO MY BIRTHDAY MONTH
First the Trump Speech. It was a yawn. A garden variety Key Note any of the past five Presidents could have given. NO inflammation controversy or off script Trump. Good job. Presidential if in media he were not a cartoon character but hey he can’t help those expressions they are just humanity and HIM. Media charisma say compared to Jack Kennedy whom I also knew – say scale of 1 to 10 – Trump is 5 and Jack is 10. Nothing personal just media grading for impact of the image. Today the image is the message unfortunately.
So no rock the boat and the market goes up.
Global funds paired holdings of equities as they see the inflation handwriting on the walls. We expect a 15% correction or 4 to 5000 DOW Points – into the Spring – or we miss it. We think it is pretty likely to correct – for so many reasons – into the Spring by 15% a long long over due technical correction. Then sans a GEO POLITICAL event such as North Korea – we feel is very likely – the world should explode with on going growth.
China is a WILD CARD. Why? Their manufacturing and economic growth has been a down graph since 2000. A 25% Growth is falling into our adjusted from communist lie numbers growth of around 5.2% today. Manufacturing fell in China in January as the RUN ON CHINA we have reported in this blog is accelerating. Capital and resources are moving out of China. When Apple states they are investing 350 billion in the USA why do you think that is – and that is just one of China’s largest employer accounts. Why?
- Protection of forward IP China rips Apple off for
- Protection of supply lines to assure Apple continuity
- Protection from trade wars and tariff’s now likely
- Protection on cost – China quality is sinking and China cost is soaring – no sum game making things in China in forward markets.
Add the APPLE FACTOR into 1000 global firms PULLING OUT – running – out of China – and the China sunset has already economically started. Housing and their Super Debt and Real Estate SUPER BUBBLE we predict will hard land – with a SUPER CRASH in China. Fasten your seat belts as a factor to world markets that has no possibility to predict or forecast outcome to – it is new Frontier time with the most phony currency on earth. In fact China has one best bet – buy as many dollars in this DIP as it is possible to BUY as a national insurance policy for their leadership. And of course SUPER BONDS ( Scroll to read about that final option Chinese policy makers ).
The dollar is a feature of world confidence. The Presidents Speech resets dollar valuation. The Fed today and later this week tells the global market – hey here is how MUCH the USA will be borrowing in the bond markets. Meaning supply is increasing of the bonds, and will the demand buy them out. If yes dollar prices will rise. If not dollar prices will stagnate. The USA landscape profits from a lower dollar selling on fire sale everything American including OIL to nations benefiting from the dollar exchange rate. A high dollar makes USA goods more costly. A Low dollar within UNFAIR TRADE STRUCTURES WORLD WIDE – the trade deals of AMERICAN SURRENDER since World War II – are as President Trump suggests – over and done. As new fair trade deals come into play the US dollar as world reserve currency with no replacement even a remote possibility – will soar. In our opinion the fix is already taking place. Today America is on sale and the world is buying as never before.
Outside GEO POLITICAL upheavals we can not see the world is looking like a global economic expansion for half a decade -within a totally out of control speculator driven market – in which volatility spikes and frequency driven by digital software controlling the market with AI that is not AI will slowly destabilize. As it destabilizes over years of time due to lack of global regulatory frame work for digital non human market trading controlling trillions of trade velocities – the volatility trend will be outside any chart of prior experience in our opinion.
Perhaps the greatest danger of the casino capital market is the manipulated price structure creates an economic imbalance in world trading accounts, while developing SUPER BUBBLES in every single asset class with non excepted.
This condition is new economically and is a death spiral for the world system itself at core due entirely to a lack of GLOBAL REGULATORY FRAME WORK for the transformation of 100’s of years of a paper system – now moved in less than 10 years to a multi trillion dollar daily digital AI software to software system where price is manipulated with regulatory blocks and stops to the unbridled digital speculation taking place and driving price points.
When this SUPER BUBBLE ends we have SUPER CRASH and a LED EVENT the Liquidity Evaporation Day. ( See my prior blogs on these new economic language terms and realities ). LED ends the system as we know it. There is no global fix. No nation can repair the bankruptcy and insolvency chain. Nothing moves. Everyone runs out of everything. Manufacturing shutters and banks are all closed. Now what?
So the danger today includes
- Investor memory – the young decision makers today lack historic perspective of LED days of the past or experience with that modeling. They have no theory to expect or project those realities.
- False Reality – today the AI software and its agencies of decision makers believe once again they have advanced diskless risk investment. There is no such thing. They fail to protect their risk positions seeing no possibility for a Super Crash.
- Super Crash – seeing no possibility for Super Crash the decision makers creating the profits in the present market, less than 10,000 SUPER MONEY pools – believe – that they control risk and trade ranges. They do not believe there is a SUPER BUBBLE IN ALL ASSET CLASES and economically have been blinded by their own data which is actually incomplete and misleading entirely ( see Sub prime ).
- Super Bubble – in ALL ASSET CLASSES via software price manipulations world wide. There has never been a SUPER BUBBLE across all asset classes. As no decision maker in super money pools believes there is a SUPER BUBBLE ( they profited to blindness – same folks with Sub Prime and Real Estate they predicted could never not ever go down ) – they are exposed to the shock and awe of SUPER CRASH as their own SUPER BUBBLE BURST.
- LED EVENT – geopolitics and countless RISK exposures not accounted for in the present economic decision making elevates risk that liquidity will via software manipulation evaporate triggered by Debt Defaulting as the largest SUPER BUBBLE is national SUPER DEBT – as the ripple of interconnected counter party agreements ( as in 2008 mortgage meltdown downs across the world ) occurs – the LIQUIDITY EVAPORATION DAY so stealthy today – becomes so raw and exposed tomorrow.
We have time.
There is lots of profits to be made during the spiral up.
The risk and vocality will rise.
The BOND MARKET remains the wild card due to SUPER DEBT BUBBLES and the CASCADE effect of defaults in that market to equity with an LED event. What the trigger is none of us can see but we know economic accounts so distorted must rebalance globally.
There is a fix for all this but no decision maker is on board yet to undertake the fix and time is running shorter and shorter.
We shake our head and continue to track the data for you.
Hope this all makes sense at the MID week as the FED announces rising supply of USA Debt to market while the fed and others are cutting back on demand to buy that debt. We’ll see how all those smarty pants finds this is going to work out for them.
Berny Dohrmann – WHATS REALLY GOING ON OUT “THERE” TODAY