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My last post of the year on MARS for America – Mutually Assured RECONSTRUCTION STRATEGY I ask all my readers to READ – to share – to repost and to DO THE 5 to do items suggested. It is our prediction we have a sixty month window count down to secure every American world defense and court of final resort dollar invested by American citizens with a DIME INVESTED for insurance to the entire defense game plans. MARS speaks for itself and we ask you to savor the economy of words for an enormous improvement in USA defensive superiority for 100’s of years within a single IP we are advocating to the planners and decision makers who are the DIFFERENCE MAKERS. Thank you for American readers for helping out. Your help DOES matter.
READ MARS our last post of the New Year save for our first post of the NEW YEAR – you are reading today.
OUR PREDICTIONS FOR 2018:
If stability to world events in distribution of goods and services could preclude unforeseen volatility we would look to 2018 to be the best economic expansion year of all time. We moderate this HOPE and this PROMISE from market fundamentals, to advance specific cautions. These cautions include:
- ETF digital training may be distorting global markets into a speculative casino capitalism outside national regulatory frame works of the past. Unknown new manipulations to asset price classes provide Super Bubbles in asset price classing and debt world wide that may burst. When is unknown but the risk is rising for the burst of the global SUPER BUBBLE.
- The Super Bubble in all asset classes and global Debt is spiraling out of any historic pattern. The expansion this August if it unfolds without declining would be the longest global economic expansion in all markets in RECORDED HISTORY. As a correction is typically linked in time and severity to the length of the precessing boom and the height of that boom period, one can from past history expect a substantial eventual correction across market spectrums.
- De-linkage a historic first time ever DE-LINKAGE of bonds, stocks and asset class influence on traditional groups and asset classes is now broken. We suspect the DE-LINKAGE breakage is due in part to the innovative never experienced before FED SUPER DEBT POLICY and its experiment to remove that accommodation to economics from the system. No one knows how the system will globally reply or what final outcome will be. All prior charts now DE-LINKED for the first time EVER – provide no clear GPS path to predict the future markets. Experts are flying blind truly for the first time in digital casino capitalism history.
- Fed Policy – As the Fed is operating an uncontrolled experiment ( along with all global central banks ) to preclude a world depression and system collapse ( 2008 -2010 ) – to stimulate growth ( 2011 -2018 ) and to remove stimulations from the market ( 2017 – 2018 ) while in theory the market growth is now self sustaining. But no one knows unintended consequence. WE PREDICT “IF” the Fed raises interest rates to aggressively in 2018 and 2019 they may trigger a SUPER CRASH in world markets due to independence now on economic core fabrics. The DEBT LADEN World accommodating with FREE MONEY and borrowing has across a % of that debt and it remains a very HIGH % – inability to sustain debt at rapidly rising interest refinancing costs. A contagion or CASCADE ( new in economics ) is now possible at speeds we have never witnessed before. WE PREDICT the FED has under valued this risk aspect of their new policy moving forward. We feel TIME is the critical asset and MORE TIME to accommodation is required to destabilize NEW DIGITAL market spaces in all nations.
- Energy – Energy is the core cost of everything – to make it – package it and transport it and recycle it. ENERGY markets are in a shift where 100 Year Gulf output dominance is being supplanted rapidly by USA output dominance as it was in the 1800’s that drove the industrial revolution. Further rapid demand fall off for oil as supplies soar, from thermal heat energy, American patented cheap hydrogen from water energy – SEE HYOX SUPER WATER – Tesla – Solar – Wind – Tidal and more in natural energy – unlimited environmentally pure NATURAL GAS all USA leading – may drive a price volatility in markets – driven entirely by terrible speculation structures once illegal – such that wild cycling on energy valuations may work to -de-stablize all market investing moving forward. From pipe lines – on and off again to new supplies and distribution trunks the market is changing at a velocity energy has not experienced as a new AI and robotic ENERGY REVOLUTION is unfolding. The merry go round on energy innovation is picking up velocity and where this merry go round of new stable cheap inexhaustible supplies of energy stops no one can predict today. The market is in utter transformation as AI rises and no one can predict the outcome other than to suggest OPEC is fully obsolete and a total fraud today and the demise of OPEC is also picking up speed. As that implosion vacuum fills with new supply leaderships, we suspect new volatility in markets in 2018 and 2019 with great losers and winners. The old norm is dying and the new normal is not grounded fully YET. Rip tide in energy in 2018.
- Terror and Political Unforseens – you an’t seen nothing yet. The notion ISIS and radical Islam ( which is not a religion or political belief system – but rather a form of human insanity – an expression of competitive thought extremes – a human insane impulse where any diversity is punished versus celebrated – is strong alive and spreading. Insanity – rage hatred and vengeance spreads much faster than the flu and far more rapidly than sanity which is cooperative – joy – love – and bliss. Competition is force and always requires justification and reaction. Cooperation is POWER and never requires any response whatsoever. Competition effects a few of us. COOPERATION ( Power ) effects all of us all of the time as sanity versus insanity. Terror the ultimate INSANITY ( being IN HUMAN – a lack of humanity ) will in its insane state – gather strength and momentum to attack the sane. All living things die hard. Ideas die hard. Insane ideas die hardest. Now circled by the growing sanity of cooperation insanity is dying. As it nears termination it will predictable act out in catastrophic ways. These 2018 and 2019 instabilities can effect markets at a time of maximum exposure to risk.
- Mark Risk – Charts and graphs tell us that the historic 400 years of price earnings ratio’s in sane markets – are now insane. Worse in multiples and not supported by sane economics – across all asset classes. For the first time markets are fully price manipulated outside the old regulatory frame works. My book Redemption the COOPERATION REVOLUTION presents a 2018 bible of economics on this topic. How to G 100 re-tool the regulatory frame of the first fully digital market space in human history. Today digital trading is manipulating prices to levels thought of as insane by economics of 2007 and 1927. The Depression speculation bubble did not include the scope of all asset classes into the worlds largest SUPER BUBBLE EVER. These manipulations are software against software in an absolute AI Cold War across nations, hackers, and criminal agencies and markets. All never known or experienced before. In less than 10 years a NEW CASINO CAPITALISM underwritten by evolving ever improving software platforms at WAR FOR PROFITS with other software platforms within ever advancing real AI. Who wins the AI wars will rule the world as Putin suggested in 2017. We agree. As the new never seen before CASINO CAPITALISM software world economic markets outside nation or central bank influence or controls – is advancing into new lions and tigers and bears we note as the software moves ever forward toward OZ along the yellow Brick road of risk-less risk ( an oxymoron in markets ) the risk for my readers – the risk for you and for “I” – remains SUPER DEBT BUBBLES. As nations and institutions in soaring interest rates rising from a decade of ZERO FREE MONEY – adjust – many are too leveraged to accommodate the higher interest rate costing. They will fail. The failure can be catastrophic in SUPER DEBT BUBBLE MARKETS. The CASCADE OF SOVEREIGN NATION DEBT DEFAULTING and unforeseen in New Year 2018 institutional DEBT DEFAULTING within the SUPER DEBT BUBBLE – commencing with CHINA – is a CONTAGION RISK to the entire system from we believe SPRING 2018 forward. Will the USA TAX STIMULUS be an offset to central bank tightening economic liquidity within the system to re-balance the system in growth over time? This is the single unknown that is the RISK barometer we would micro managing watchfulness upon in the NEW YEAR.
With these unknowns, now KNOWN, my readers have the dichotomy of choice. On the near term the Tax Stimulus in the USA – the largest in 100 years – should propel first massive stock buy backs and ramp ups within the Lower money cost of the moment further casino manipulating stock prices to engineering price trading levels. Unknown is the speed and velocity acceleration and momentum or VAM that the benefactors of tax reduction will invest in economic plant, equipment, repatriation of capital and up bubble to USA core economics long term.
IF VAM is retarded by other unforeseen outcomes to tax policy the risk to the economy grows larger. The USA DEBT will become a counter weight to growth. IF VAM is patriotically self realized as a response to the trust of CONGRESS to the private sector – the outcomes may reduce USA debt burden and secure a prosperity that may unfold for three to five more years creating the longest boom cycle in recorded history.
There are risks to this model and we have informed you of those risks. The outcome in 2018 is predictable – NO ONE CAN PREDICT. Within these new variables as we now go down the yellow brick road along new economic modeling the world has no prior history to predict from within. Keep that sentence in your primary thinking as fact.
Finally we suggest having first reported in October globally that APPLE is in pure crises – that:
- Apple may influence the entire market into a route.
- Almost a dozen class action suits are approved by courts against Apple for untold billions in damage due to the Stealth upgrade Apple produced ( basically a lie to its customers ) that slowed old phones down.
- Apply quality has been slaughtered by Tim Cook whose personal income went up 46% by massive millions in 2017 – while Apple released the worst hardware and software in memory.
- Enormous BRAND TRASHING has moved millions to buy other brands as Apple is losing MARKET SHARE due to quality saving to boast Tim’s personal income – and failed policies by Tim Cook, that is the destruction of Apple core trust with its enamors customer base. It will take a decade to repair the damage Tim Cook has created inside the 2018 CRISES IN APPLE MANAGEMENT only repaired when the Board appoints a replacement to Tim, at a Steve Jobs level of culture and innovation genius.
- Until then we fear unfolding APPLE ROT will influence the entire Technology field with a thank God for Besos and Amazon leadership. The crises is one of INTEGRITY Tim. The courts will decide very likely Tim Cook’s integrity SUCKS. An Apple first since Job’s – BRAND SLAUGHTER by Tim Cook.
As an Apple Shareholder – I type on a new current maximized MAC BOOK PRO with three fixes so far and they tell me they can’t really fix it because the flaws is a permanent manufacturing quality flaw from China. My new IPHONEX is so buggy I can’t purchase from the App Store – it locks up as Apple never did and fails – constantly to execute – and wrong screens etc – in the 5th upgrade to fix all this within our massive user complaints on record ( including my own multiples ) suggesting an APPLE IN 2018 CRISES.
First the released god awful buggy hardware and software.
Then they failed to inform us with integrity and explain any fix.
Then they lied.
Now we – all of us – no longer trust them as we once did. All those wonderful cause related devoted employee’s destroyed by the CEO Tim Cook and a Board who allows it to continue . The market is wising up. The Press is wising up. While year end sales exploded for Amazon and Tim Cooks income exploded say 46% in 2017 alone – Apple stock for shareholders like “me” fell 5% at year end while everyone else set records. We predict with Apple you an’t seen nothing yet as these scandals overwhelm Tim Cook. What has been secret is becoming public. Tim it is time for YOU TO GO.
Everyone we predict will see that unfold in 2018.
That is what is going on out there in record freeing weather in the USA Today – 17 below zero with wind chill factors – some of Canada is today colder on New Years than the North Pole and colder than MARS. Think about that.
So as the big ball in the Big Apple home to my investment banking years and a second home New York CITY for this 5th generation San Franciscan – we retire a record all time boom year 2017 into a rising up ramping up tax reform benefited 2018 year – and all of its hope and promise. We have North Korea coming to the table – Iran imploding from within – Russia wishing to cooperate with the USA – and a reason to enjoy a very HAPPY NEW YEAR in every nation of the world – with surprising less violence in the world and less murders in New York City than anytime in 50 years. Think about THAT trend for sanity. Despite what you read day to day – violence reported in real time – is by data tracking going DOWN.
Peace is going UP.
The world is cooperating as never before and that trend toward sanity ( the leaders are reading my book REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION – the stuff of Nobel Prizes ). Competition is retarding as a mind thought form. Insanity is in decline.
2018 does not look like another good year.
2018 looks like – despite the risks on board – a truly GREAT YEAR for 7 billion of the citizens of the world village.
I wish you effortless abundance, every possible dream, contentment, and the celebration of YOUR OWN NEW YEAR.
Berny Dohrmann – Final Report on WHAT IS GOING ON in 2017…..
HAPPY New Years & Thank YOU !~
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