The Democratic Party is in MOMENTUM. Their work took a RED STATE for decades and turned that state Blue. All the kings horses – Trump and Bannon – could not put Moore ( Humpty Dumpty ) back together again. Done deal. 51 Republicans to 49 shrinking on Trumps watch first year. Not good.
As the mid year elections can return Congress to the Democratic Party and if it is by a landslide upsetting more RED STATES this year – the Presidential Election to follow in a couple years will be at risk for a ONE TERM Donald Trump President. His legacy will be entertainment and a minor footnote in history.
The Republican Party is not asleep to all this and the battle is going to be titanic coming up. For votes and the WAY OF AMERICA. The future of the United States. Perhaps no more important voter election in modern times for the entire world.
The slam dunk tax reform could still derail entirely. If it does the market in our opinion will punish the outcome. If the tax reform passes the market will reward the outcome. There is no greater agenda for the prosperity of the entire world in the balance. You are all reading the details so I will not repost them here. The battle is occurring through The Weekend s the HOUSE OF CONGRESS and the United States SENATE in joint conference committee hammer out a final resolution which if they pass THAT it moves next week to the President of the United States.
As politics is driving economics versus economics driving politics no one – no expert – no authority – can predict outcome. We will have to wait and see as so much can and will happen between now and then. This coming week is two years in political time. Long days and nights.
The future of the economic recovery lay in the balance as the Fed moves to raise interest rates – again – without knowing this all important outcome on the economics. The Fed said today that they did not THINK in THIER OPINION the tax reform would pay its own costs. This is OF COURSE. As the largest US Gov cost is payment of interest to the national debts and the FED who collects the interest is raising the interest cost – they KNOW the cost of this larger item will soar. They create the pain. All of the pain. In all ways an always. Its economics.
Digital currency is NOT MONEY. This digital first generation product IS A Ponzi scheme. Why? Well there are 23 million bit coins by declaration at launch. Could the launch authority issue more coins. You bet. Will they? No one knows.
Meanwhile floods of naive ‘investors” are speculating in the digital betting. The value of ever rising demand against a fixed supply creates price rises that are based on no value. Of any kind. Bitcoin could go to 1,000,000 and higher as we reported here.
Buy low and sell high. In anything.
Liquidity is the issue in this digital casino. When the manipulation super pools of money cash out – the little guys won’t be able to get out. You and me. The BIT COIN will crash every day for months and no one will buy your coin as it sinks and sinks and sinks. That merchants except the coin at outrageous values means merchants can and will go bankrupt when he liquid of this game of MUSICAL CHAIRS stops the ay you take your chevy to the levy and the MUSIC DIES.
When their are 100 million sellers and no buyers the BITCON PONZY dies. IT may be some time before the world is fully engaged and in so the the loss is trillions and the entire world economically can be effected by this SUPER BUBBLE of wealth transfer into digital no value.
If I made money win bit coin – I would take my profits and laugh and laugh to the bank returning to real money and currency. If you believe the first generation of digital currency is the bomb you’ll be blown up.
Now the second generation of BIT COINS is coming of age next year and will be based on value that is missing in BIT COIN. The first generation is a board game. The second generation of digital currency is much better constructed and forged on economics that bit coin as a Ponzi model lacks. One day you’ll say we told you so.
All the economic masters I know agree with me. The non economic idiots do not. I vote for me.
OIL – THE COST OF EVERYTHING
The war between Iran and Saudi is spiraling up and no abatement appears thus far. Saudi’s civil war has the nation in flux. Uncertainty is rampant and no one knows how the merge go round will stop. We are all watching.
OPEC members are cheating and pumping more oil. Oil is in surplus over demand this winter as we said and you’ll prices fall and tumble in the new year as the true surplus is known. The 400,000 barrels of the two week or so UK leaky pipeline fix is nothing and over in a snap. America alone has offset this supply drop with new supplies. Opec cheating is picking up the dip. The SURPLUS over demand is real.
Demand is not rising as everyone fake news reports. Demand is falling at a pace the supply group never anticipated. So oil as a commodity is over priced – way over priced – as are all asset and commodities due to lack of global regulation on speculator Super Money pools manipulating price.
The tax reform if passed won’t immediately trickle down to anyone we suspect. We see massive record all time STOCK BUY BACKS. Institutions will transfer tax money that was paid to the United States to buy back their own stock manipulating share prices to the market. This will create a further false value in the value SUPER BUBBLE spiraling up to never before seen levers. Levels ever touched in 1929.
Keep in mind at almost zero interest stock can be acquired with economics of low cost to massive repurchasing in the billions to manipulate share price to the market space. Eventually this economic imbalance must be restored in a global rebalancing. This does not end well.
Digital casino price manipulations rely on new generation software never before tested over time in any market place. The elasticity of the software is moderated by unknowns the software code considerations can never fully anticipate. This creates a LIQUIDITY SUPER RISK.
As the Super Price and SUPER DEBT bubbles collapse the illiquidity of the system may collapse finally the global system at core ( banking as banks are then bankrupt ). This likely outcome is not even considered as a core consideration and remaining tools exist to protect the system from this risk.
Say Russia cuts the under sea fiber cables? Internet and global financial transactions stop. Takes say one hour globally. Who could say it is Russia – North Korea – Iran or any “ran”? It can’t be repaired in any simple time frame.
So risks exist that:
- Low technology cable cutting ends the system as we know it today.
- High technology software attacks on our markets end the system as we know it today.
- Geopolitical upsets create market CASCADE in which liquidity stops in a panic like the world has never known and the system we know dies.
There are many more risks that keep me up late into the night. Which is why we advocated MARS – MUTUALLY ASSURED RECONSTRUCTION but no one is listening to -common damn sense – today.
The Rand Report published this week that in a war it is now likely – after ten years of the USA cutting military spending – and our enemies rising military spending that our enemies are passing us in war weapons and Rand Report states the scales have tipped the USA may lose a war with Russia and or China unless we catch up. They indicated that North Korea may win if we fought them. Or Iran.
Outcome is now no longer certain.
Can we catch up?
Will Congress pass a real budget something they have not done in years? Will they increase military investment as Defense Secretary Mathis argues – the United States can always afford SURVIVAL.
No one knows.
Which is why we reported Congress ( ROME ) Fiddles while the United States Burns. Starting with the California Fires the experts say they can’t rule out terror. ISIS soldiers only need a match .
So against the issues we face today the risks are higher than the market price across the board warrants. We suspect the market will remain a PEACOCK. Lots of frothing feathers and no real meat.
That is what is REALLY GOING ON…this weekend – OUT THERE.
Berny Dohrmann – KEEPING A LIGHT ON FOR YA ALL
PS: The Prince announced the wedding for May so following that in the UK is the fun part of the weekend news. Congratulations to the Royal Family. Sanity reigns there at least. GOD SAVE THE QUEEN !— December 16, 2017