LETS PRETEND SAUDI IS INSIDE A CIVIL WAR THREE WEEKS OLD:
Part of the traditional wealth of the nation, leadership of the nation, entitled royalty and military in the nation, 70 years immune and outside the law, are now arrested. If you are held at the Ritz and hung from the ceiling and tortured with instruments and electricity to get your “confession” and your “wealth” in the hands of the 32 year old King, purge his enemies and consolidating his power. Human rights? We back horrific leadership and we label those who are not so bad as horrific. Why does the USA back losers? For the money? The billions in weapon orders? A policy to keep the Arab world divided – which is failed policy 50 years ago – but hey lets keep failure going. Why? Because THAT IS THE WAY THE USA ROLLS YA ALL – THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE:
- North Korea
- The EU
Should the USA wake up? Realign the world? Reset the stage and lead a new world order? Comment here. What do you think about?
- Should the USA meet Iran and make a deal a real deal?
- Should the USA meet North Korea with Putin and make a real deal?
- Should the USA become the largest oil producer in 36 months as policy?
- Should the USA lead in alternative energy and moving petroleum consuming engines for transportation and electricity to natural gas and hydro gen and heat from the core whose technologies we dominate with wind solar and tidal technology?
- Should the USA balance Saudi with other alliances and not March to the drum beat of the new inexperienced 32 year old King now in civil war with enormous risk he and the monarchy itself can survive as old and new cultures policies and traditions class in Saudi Arabia. The Gulf is aligning with IRAN or SAUDI and in that choice the USA or Russia. We are loosing via failed old THAT IS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IT policies – mindless processions.
- Should The USA Meet winner King Hussain with Putin and make a deal and rebuild Syria and work for the people really – millions of people?
- Should the USA Meet North Korea with Putin and welcome them into the family of nations and make a peace treaty and deal related to NUKES which are never not ever going away in North Korea? What makes the USA and the world a safer space? All a 90 day change the world with superior policy. We fail to do this why?
Why doesn’t Trump make a deal with Castro and Venezuela? Why are we entrenched in labeling Cuba while Mbs in Saudi is torturing his opponents to steal 100 billion of their wealth. How many of Saudi elites will be killed or missing? What about their families? What about their circles? Interesting circles like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and others close to an advising those arrested – are out to lunch on friendship – years of business together – and support for those arrested. NO longer dinner guests? All this double standard is being NOTICED by leaders and wealth all over the world.
The enormous shift in loyalty – alliance – wealth – investment – flow – channels – is all in flux. Will MBS win and come out the strong new King? No one knows nor can they predict. Will the Super wealth being tortured – labeled – diminished – humiliated – in their powerful circles – create a unity to kill MBS as his offense to them IS A KILLING OFFENSE make no mistake about that? If you believe MBS is controlling at age 32 all the moving parts of this civil war in SAUDI – our blog was the first to accurately define for the MEDIA PRESS AND THE WORLD – as they catch up to what is REALLY GOING ON OUT THERE. Will the Monarchy survive?
How does the CIVIL WAR effect the ARAMCO offering – a dicey high stake high risk offering given the lack of audit transparency to the real state of Saudi oil wealth and reserves?
How serious is the financial crises in SAUDI? The oil crash and failed oil policy has created a red ink in debt nation losing its credit rating as its own borrowing costs soar and its need to borrow spiral into a DEBT BOMB in the Gulf. What is Saudi can’t pay its bill and a deleveraging spiral occurs. OPEC members will BLAME SAUDI as Gulf conditions worsen further politically economically religiously.
The West does what? Do we stabilize or de-stablize? DO we help the people – the tens of millions – REALLY HELP – or do we continue the 1950’s THAT IS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IT POLICY?
What is really going on out there is the energy lake of the world – is engaged in a high risk gamble. Current policy jacks up Oil at year end as consumption of oil products tanks. The ramp up at these prices of America output from 10 million barrels each day to 20 million barrels a day as AMERICA becomes the # 1 Oil Producer larger than Russia or Saudi – IS inevitable due to failed OPEC/SAUDI market share wars which the USA won and Putin and Opec lost – at the largest wealth shift in modern times – back to the USA.
Couple that to USA dominance in low kilowatt unlimited core of the earth HEAT electricity – replacing all oil electricity – and endless supply shifting trucks autos and transportation ( Planes and trains and things ) from oil to electricity faster than OPEC can blink – will now cause supply to mushroom in 2018. Those who went long on the oil uptake at year end 2017 will experience a new bear blood bath in 2018 – without a GULF destabilization or war. Which is HIGHLY LIKELY as the issues discussed in our recent blogs spiral out of control.
What is the USA DOING actually?
Firing Tillerson. Perhaps the best in that office ever.
No new policy.
We are sucking our USA crack pipe of orders for military gear from Saudi’s Ass – which we would replace with Syria and Iran orders to name two – and marching down our 50 year failed USA POLICY in the GULF – THAT IS THE WAY WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE IT. Failed in:
- Saudi – from day one
- Failed in Iraq since day one –
- Failed in Lebanon
- Failed in Yehman
- Failed in Qatar
- Failed in Libya
- Failed in Iran
Thanks to the brilliant King and Queen of Jordon we have done a little better there because we tend to listen to their wise counsel. We may fail in Egypt too early to say. We failed in Pakistan and pay them a trillion to screw unto us before we screw unto them. Everyone knows this: USA OLD MODEL POLICY IS A FAILURE. Now continuing those policies from Cuba to Venezuela is counter to the world order that is IN OUR OWN BEST INTEREST.
So watch the GULF. The big risks right now are:
- The Gulf to the markets with unforeseen events unfolding
- The potential for war with North Korea as a pure distraction to the failure of other policy set forth here
- The debt bomb in China exploding into a very hard super crash in 2018 or beyond.
The greatest longest boom in history is in its 9th inning. But we have time and we have more up bubble.
The Wild Card became MBS and the new 32 year leaders ruthless SAUDI play with military – elite royal – arrests – and a network of the military and secret police crushing MBS opponents in every possible manner and all at once. Will that purge that has worked for Chairman MAU and Stalin work in Saudi in 2018?
Too early to know. Too many balls in the air. Anything can happen.
So the RISK on REMAINS HIGH from this civil war unfolding.
We’ll keep you all posted on the main event – always economic ….
Berny Dohrmann – DEC IS ANOTHER NEW MONTH ON ITS WAY