MY PREDICTION REMAINS STATIC SINCE SUMMER 2016:
Since the 1980’s when I sold my public Investment Banking firm ( globally ) and founded CEO SPACE the world’s leading Entrepreneur CEO community I’ve made a lot of predictions. Almost 100 of them. I’ll be wrong. I’m sure. I predicted the crash of 1987 – the dot.Bomb crash of 2000 – the 9/11 recession – the 2007 melt down. Our tribe of CEO’s uses the information we provide as one source of data to effect safety and keeping their money from harms way. We always error on conservative economics.
We predicted the current boom as a FOOLS RALLY. We noted as you all make lots and lots of money – you can lose all of your nest egg and with margin trading so easily provided more than all of your money. Truly.
WE have stated the SPRING of 2018 is the danger period. WE have stated a third party global shock event would trigger the CASCADE into the correction. We suggest debt is the issue and the bond market is the problem.
We have provided chart and graphic information in this blog over more than a year now to support our continued caution on the 9th inning of the boom. Next August this boom if it lasts will be the longest highest boom since the 1929 depression super crash.
We have noted the Congress stimulus to world markets via a tax reform for the USA given the FED is tightening money ( we feel prematurely and with huge risk ) the boom could go forward for years. Without the stimulus of tax reform the correction is far more immediate.
Even with the stimulus will we get through the spring? We will find:
- Record year end profits
- Surprising retail up bubble
- Across the board year end good news
Then we feel 2018 – not so much.
As the first quarter results come in – a tax lag will occur – until the new congressional policy – what ever that potential may or may not become – takes some time to effect market result into.
During this time – an unknown time – as we are in entirely new financial modeling like no time in history – within a casino super bubble unlike other models – as all Asset classes are effected by price manipulation and unwanted system speculations. This current global model is not sustainable and is unhealthy economics.
IF we have time we may be able to moderate the downward effects of the Super Bubble.
Debt is the unknown.
If Venezuela defaults ( not in the world best interest ) or any debtor nations starts a BOND CASCADE of debt defaults given the record Mount Everest of bond debt ramped up in this boom – the correction can be ferocious. Digitally instant.
If we get through the Spring sans a third party shock event – we may propel a boom forward three to five more years with tax reform.
Without tax reform stimulous the vulnerability of the markets is truly off any prior chart.
We have North Korea instability and unknowns.
We have an Israel Iran war potential or a Pakistan India war potential or a China Sea war potential. All 2018 risks no one is factoring in at all.
We have Russia controlling oil policy world wide not OPEC and tomorrow we find out what that means near term.
Feel secure “They” will handle what ever comes up? Who is they? The US Navy has billions in repairs from ships navigating into crashes. Then they crash the ship trying to get it home for repairs. Again. That THEY is going to fix everything? They can to steer a billion dollar war ship in broad daylight.
Anyone go to jail for negligence costing US tax payers fortunes? Nope. We go to jail for life the third time we steal a snicker bar in California.
The system is out of whack.
Wells Fargo steals untold millions criminally to make bonus money. Anyone go to jail for this large theft? No. Corporations are increasingly criminal with fines factored I as a cost of criminal activity. The multi nations faced with a. crises not of leadership but a crises of integrity make the Mafia look like kindergarten for crime.
The world is at highest risk ever until the world gets its integrity culture back. We have to cooperate and trust each other or we go to Super Crash and world war.
Do you see anyone avoiding the march toward war?
Pounding weapons on your hairy chest is no longer a policy as a way forward. No that is stupid and immature leadership world wide.
So who protects us from risk of a SUPER CRASH?
Oh that is easy. No one. No one is IN CHARGE of THAT.
Should some one be in charge?
Yes but politicians run the economics and until the economics run the politics which typically occurs after a war – millions die because politicians do not understand economics. That is the cause. Ignorance. Not intention.
We all are hostage to world events.
The risk for a correction is economic and historic.
The time is now to the spring. If we make it we are globally so lucky. If not make a plan to protect your profits.
It is high now.
Berny Dohrmann – WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON OUT THERE
PS: Like musical chairs when the correction occurs so many will be out first. If your not one of them you lose.— November 29, 2017