THE SPLIT PERSONALITY CASINO MARKET
The market is turning out record high’s. Today. The market is turning out record lows today. Across the board. In various asset classes. Then we have third party factors reaching a market tipping point. These factors include:
- Plunging Oil and Deflation as OPEC falls completely apart. I know I know – but it IS falling apart with Russia defecting trust me.
- Venezuela is about to massively default as its imports to dilute its heavy crude have dropped to zero meaning what oil is it going to export it is plunging to zero defaulting now across the board. Trust me. This will shake what? Yes the BOND MARKETS.
- Germany the stronger economy in the EU falling for 18 months is now a mess. Maerkle could not get her government formed and now the President may call or NEW ELECTIONS which would possibly defeat Maerkle all together. Germany is economically sinking and a mess no longer able to lead. So what now?
- Saudi is in civil war internally while the Gulf is spiraling up for a shooting war with Iran and Saudi at Saudi’s invitation given their 32 year hormone flying new King. Saudi can’t win that war.
- China output in Christmas season is 2015 down from 2014 down from 2016 down from 2017. Down. The economy is cooling even while lending is rising to stimulate the falling jobs and economics for the failure of communism. Nothing short of war will re-ignite China economics – Abe knows this as he went through crash and deflation in Japan for 30 years and China is about to move down that slippy slope.
Now we have massive instability and unknowns in Germany economics right when the EU is besieged by Italy voting and perhaps leaving next year – Spain maybe splitting up and unable to pay its debts – leaving France to pay all the bad debts by itself. The Debts of the EU during the coming correction may wipe out the EU entirely. Nation after nation wants out of Brussel control. The EU as an experiment is a flawed economic model as we have reported here and why and is a building economically burning to the ground where the designers now dead failed to put in economic fire escapes. The blood bath this creates is going to be for a time awful.
Meanwhile Russia wants to make money and turning oil OFF is not the way for the world’s largest oil producer to make money. Also Russia MUST stop loosing market share and customers. The failed Saudi oil plan since 2014 is that OPEC members pay billions in reduced output and lost revenue to send their best clients to America and other suppliers to never come back. The MARKET SHARE WARS. OPEC Lost those wars and America and non OPEC Producers won those wars due to failed Saudi planners and policy.
With all this uncertainty we have ISIS still with us and growing along with other terror organizations. We have Saudi moving to destabilize Lebanon by kidnapping their Prime Minister – making him read their statement of resignation and keeping him in Saudi. Again we have Sunni Saudi against Shite Lebanon making deals with Sunni in nation. Saudi wants no deals. War with Iran and Shite sects.
Now return to the split personality of the software against software casino markets of the world. Cascade is when all switches all signals move to sell, and its day after day sell sell sell, and there are no buyers like none by %. This market SWITCH creates Software CASCADE where every day prices dive but no one can GET OUT AT ALL. Liquidity has stopped until the system fails utterly.
That is the RISK ON item we worry about not IF that reality will play out and the smarty pant programers will be caught dead in their binary code – but WHEN IT WILL PLAY OUT. CASCADE IS COMING. The Trigger event we have said is a rippling bond domino of defaults or the Debt Bomb exploding globally. In Digital space it takes now minutes to do what would take months in older space and times.
Our best models suggest we will spiral up in prices and wealth values through year end with the best buying for Holiday Season ever. Retail will surprise us. Apple will surprise us. All into March. If Congress passes the Tax Reform Act the expansion could proceed for years and years in our expert opinion.
If congress is unable to pass TAX REFORM as the required global stimulus needed next – I believe as winter ends and spring begins we have RISK ON dangers for a SUPER CRASH versus a correction. I think the entire world could sink into war and chaos.
Its that big. Economically for the risk factors I’ve set forth here reaching that well discussed TIPPING POINT.
What IS the tipping point for this split personality digitally software controlled market space. Is it before SPRING – SPRING – or after? Is it years from now with Tax Reform.
I’m starting you week telling you that the CEO SPACE UNCERTAINTY INDEX for the layers of new events unfolding we have listed here are soaring. The WEIGHT OF UNCERTAINTY continues to alarm our data folks and me as the UNCERTAINTY SPIRAL is rising like smoke in a tee pee chimney. I”m worried about the continued spiral of events taking place reaching a global TIPPING POINT.
China down bubble in economics is huge and lightly reported.
Germany’s Sunday lack of leadership is huge and lightly reported.
The Economics are moving into 2018 with massive rising unknowns.
That is never secure for a bull market in its 9th inning.
So you know WHAT TO DO.
I’ve told you.
You know HOW to protect YOURSELF.
If you read and scan and DO NOTHING.
When you lose a lot of nest egg remember – I tried to save that $$ for you and I worked really hard to help you preserve every single dollar. I just can not ACT for my readers.
So stay tuned and we’ll keep the best we know in front of you.
Berny Dohrmann – HOME IN TAMPA BAY FIRST TIME IN 60 DAYS— November 20, 2017