TWO WEEKS IN SAUDI – CIVIL WAR TIME
Saudi as reported on this Blog has years now of failed economic policy. Their policy with OIL – crush shale – drop prices from a peak of almost 140 dollars a barrel to 37.00 dollars a barrel in an oil crash in 2014, resulted in market share wars. Shale was not crushed. US Oil production rose from 3 million barrels each day to 10 million barrels a day and is rising to 20 million barrels a day and will soon pass Russia as the worlds # 1 producer and Saudi # 2.
Soon the worlds largest oil producer will be the USA with Russia # 2 and Saudi ( maybe ) number 3. Saudi has lost the market share wars.
Economically speaking – Saudi failed policy is the biggest financial disaster in modern times. Their policy planners lost untold billions of state Saudi income, to lose customers who will never return. In the old world there is a RUN ON Saudi Arabia. Customers are leaving Saudi forever as their bully boy supplier. Who wants customer service like Saudi? Threats and price manipulation? See you later SAUDI Chaps. Oil is running out of Saudi to never return. Trust me – Saudi economics are far far from what they where when their failed policy kicked in. Today Saudi economics are in pure full on crises with no sure happy ending.
When you think of Oil Prices think of Venezuela. The largest pool of oil larger than Saudi. They have had declining production all year. They are now at the lowest output in years as they crash into billions upon billions of global loan defaults 200 million last week alone. The Entire silly community model of an economy is reaching the tipping point of IMPLOSION. The Bond Defaults of up to 60 billion dollars will be temporary as the political upheavals will resolve over time and the oil will flow again. Market Disruptions could trigger economic CASCADE AND SUPER CRASH so worth watching closely and we are DAILY. But for a time there is a move out of Saudi and Venezuela ( heavy crudes ) to the USA lighter cheaper to buy cheaper to refine Crude. There is a run on oil patch suppliers. Customers will never return.
Russia looking on at Saudi failed economic policy has cost themselves untold revenue, increasing loss of customers and market share as they remove oil from the market just to raise their own price to those same customers – the customers are not amused by price monopoly and price gauging they call OIL REBALANCING. Control of a cheap renewing resource – the EARTH FARTS AND SHITS OIL AND GAS AND THERE IS NO LACK OF SUPPLY OVER DEMAND FOREVER AS IT ALL RENEWS – high prices is a criminal conspiracy of economics that is corrected by free markets.
We think Putin is foolish truly to remain in OPEC or to participate in a year more of cut backs and lose even more customers. REALLY? Russia is way to smart for that so consider Russia is going to lip service and pump and will be in effect OUT OF OPEC having been hurt so badly financially BY OPEC. Putins one mistake this last year was OPEC.
Saudi is in a blood bath of red ink and lacks CASH to operate its current budgets and forward budgets as we reported here since 2014. The Saudi economy is totally crashing inwardly. The nation economically is a an absolute mess following the worst advisers they pay 100’s of millions to get screwed by. Its interesting to watch the money merry go round.
Saudi cash strapped and borrowing massively is about to have its credit rating dropped. Long long over due. This CASCADES into rippling higher Saudi Borrowing costs – long over due.
Saudi is now trying to get missing cash by stealing that missing cash.
They have arrested their richest royals and leadership and now this last 72 hours their wealthiest military generals and commanders nation wide. This PURGE is about stealing money and smashing opposition to the new KING 32 year old MBS. The moves against those always immune under the Saudi law is a civil war. A coup of one tribal set over another. The Purge is without mercy and ruthless by the new king. Everyone see’s how ruthless the new King truly is now.
Today those ‘arrested” are offered freedom or death really if they turn over 70% of their wealth to the KING. This is stealing. It is stealing 100 billion dollars. Which is the King’s game plan by the way. Lacking coin of the realm. Move into your opposition and steal it and seal your powers at the top. Your with me or your dead – so the King Said.
Now those losing 100 billion DOLLARS of their wealth are not doing so with rose petals falling from the sky. They are not pissed. They are at WAR as a class against the new King. They will wish to kill him. And have their tribe take over power. A Civil class was is two weeks in and just staring. This is far far from over and SAUDI Power factors are choosing sides with ever tighter fears and secret policy activity from the KING. Saudi is turning into a full on police state which it already was but now NAZIS in ROBES have all the powers from the KING and they are using those powers just as the NAZIS did – taking you in the night from your homes.
So Saudi is engaged in a HIGH RISK POLITICAL set of moves that seeks to unite power under the new 32 year old King Mbs. If successful the New King will move the nation into war with Iran in our opinion. For various economic and political reasons. Iran seeing this unfold may act first while the King is weak and distracted. Creating a REGIONAL start of a real world war III. So a full on REGIONAL SPIRAL into war is taking place now in the GULF Regional States even while Saudi is inwardly focused into its own civil war preparing for the Iran war.
This is what is REALLY GOING ON OUT THERE.
The events unfolding in Saudi and the Gulf are massive sea change events. There is no way to know how these events will turn out. Enormous forces and powers are now at work in Saudi.
Military loyalties and factors will be tested.
Those once powerful are now being diminished in power and wealth. Defanged.
This is a full on spiral of a major CIVIL WAR in Saudi. Religious leaders are lining up against the KING reforms and changes. Massive political waves are moving toward all Saudi shores some will be larger waves.
As once this war which is just starting is over Saudi will go after IRAN. Iran has the military superiority. By far. So that move would be in our opinion SAUDI SUICIDE. However Iran may not wait for the move. If they ( IRAN ) move rapidly they can take over Iraq and Saudi in two months. Should they wait or should they charge through the gate?
No one can predict it.
Iran than of the take over Iraq and Saudi wins as they then own the largest energy resource in the world and is a world power to be reckoned with. Better than having the BOMB just take the oil from the 32 year old King and remove the KINGDOM once and for all. Iran has everyone worship without contest – Christian Sunni Shite every faith. Saudi – not so much.
Sunni Saudi is “dealt” with by Shite Iran action on this matter should IRAN act first and how long will they wait for Saudi to attack them? How long indeed? In todays world Iran has a pure opportunity. Will they take it?
Could it happen?
What is going to stop IT from happening if you follow the economics?
Personally while Saudi is focused inward would Iran open another front that is outward?
The massive sea change taking place in Saudi today is Gulf Wide and forcing the Regional players dominated by Shite versus Sunni populations to make choices of who will win the 2000 year old contest on these issues.
No one knows.
No one can predict.
The west has no involvement as it is totally regional without our input desired or required by the local players.
We have to watch.
Ultimately we just have to watch.
As Saudi failed policies unfold and continue in the most massive policy failure of modern time of any nation we know of.
Berny Dohrmann – The Knowing WATCHER in The USA