OPEC THE FAILED CARTEL
As Saudi brings their IPO on their ARAMCO consortium for state oil auditors are seeing if the 260 billion barrels of oil, that costs six dollars to bring to port, is real or not. Global buyers are not likely to buy into the high oil IPO price that Saudi seeks to get a trillion dollars to re-tool their economy from oil to something else. Further SAUDI jaw bones they have supply under wraps – and world glut is now reducing. All of this falls under a dishonesty that my readers across the world need to appreciate.
So how does this dishonesty work. Really.
First the CARTEL – OPEC – is a group of producers with different agenda’s and politics. The SAUDI construction was to create a MONOPOLY on OIL so that they could artificially control market price at HIGHEST POSSIBLE LEVELS for producers as they force nations and buyers to pay MORE than they ever should for energy – the cost of everything.
Second this phony pricing which worked for years created a horrible social hidden tax from fair market price so that billions of developing nation poor could not rise up or enjoy full partnership. SAUDI has held back the entire world economically over any other influence creating recessions boom bust cycles and horror world wide to secure ungodly profits consolidating to the few oil producers against the billions of all of us. Cartels are evil and distort core economic market forces to present advantage to elites who legally are permitted to manipulate prices to their advantage and where energy is the manipulation the evil is absolute to generations of poor who lack resources forward mobility and medicines that depend on lower prices for the cost of everything.
Third the glut is Saudi caused in their cartel economic weapon of mass destruction where they dumped oil as American Oil Shale and new discoveries out paced Saudi market share. Said another way more market share of customer base has moved away from OPEC with more costly to refine oil products to America and non Opec Suppliers like Brazil with lower cost oil and lower cost to refine oil in ten years than in the past 50 years combined. OPEC has dropped prices from 120 plus dollars for each barrel ( their cost to lift is six dollars ) to 37 dollars or 80% plus drop since 2014 – seeking to totally CRUSH America Shale production.
America invented technology that made Shale profitable at 37.00 dollars and rose to 10 million barrels a day during this time taking even more MARKET SHARE from OPEC members. Opec Members ( not dumb ) are giving lip service to Saudi but are leaving OPEC in fact if not by contract by pumping more. They are now preserving their market share in an on going market share war Saudi has lost utterly. They have invested untold billions in lost revenue, gone into the RED INK as nations with Opec due to lost revenues while their core customers are pissed off and leaving as Cartels continue to try to manipulate their energy cost to ungodly high levels all over again. Any talk about humanity – fair market balance – restoring market balance – is fraud and seeks to stimulate speculative buyers to go long on oil and artificially move the price up on each Saudi PR move versus real market reality.
The oil market is not fooled.
OPEC is now irrelevant and largely in each new move seen as a joke.
In the past weeks OPEC visited Russia and stated “that we have no concerns about American Shale production”. The following week record shale growth was reported. OPEC then solicited AMERICA to be RESPONSIBLE and join the cartel to cut production ( lose their market share advantage and momentum clobbering OPEC ) and to join the Cartel – itself unAmerican and frankly in America illegal . Price manipulation like OPEC is a CRIME under American laws.
American needs to remain friends with producers all over the world as our allies. This should include Iran who is not our enemy Iran is Saudi’s enemy. We go along for that ride. They pay us billions in trade to keep the faith. I think that policy is flawed. We can be friends with neighbors who disagree religiously and politically as we do world wide today. That IS in our own best interest.
So OPEC says today we are keeping out options open and we are ready to extend cuts into 2019.
Opec is facing a set of data that is a lie. The real data is that the world is moving away from oil to power transportation ( 70% of all oil use ) faster than OPEC models allow for. They go bankrupt if they allow for those real numbers. Every manufacturer of cars trust and planes has electric cars coming. Electricity is moving from fossil fuel at speeds that are total disruption to oil out put and demand. Natural gas, new clean burning coal, wind, tidal, and solar are producing % of electricity in trends that off load oil demand so dramatically that super money pools are reporting ( this week ) that they are not going to buy into ARAMCO . Seeing yet another failed SAUDI ECONOMIC PLAN AND POLICY ( they have all failed over a decade since the crash all of them ) Saudi is selling % of Aramco in advance to investors like their largest buyer China – we assume in China smart guarantees on both supply velocity over 30 years at prices that reflect real market lows to their advantage for their ownership of AMACO. We assume these deals will continue as the full IPO can not be sold in today’s climate.
Enter the game changer. HEAT from the earth core is a never varied energy source that never fluctuates in value and no cartel can control it. New technology leaders the champ in the USA in the MID WEST has 80 patents that allow heat to be delivered to your home – your office – your city your state or your nation – at a cost per kilowatt that makes OIL obsolete. The fastest growing new energy source to create electricity is EARTH HEAT using new safe non polluting cheap and available under your feet everywhere – energy. This technology is by far the most energy disruptive technology since whale oil – kerosene and oil itself 100 years ago.
The speed this technology is coming on line is disruptive. We predict in ten years the tipping point of moving transportation ( 70 % of oil use ) to non polluting transportation in sea planes trucks and cars will be dominate. Oil transportation is dying out and dying off. While Open against demand being SHATTERED and its phony numbers being crazy – like 100 million barrel use by 2020 – please. China is moving to HEAT ENERGY faster than any other source and OPEC’s largest customer is dying off. They have to die out oil to reclaim air to breath and they are ahead in doing so. OPEC gets its numbers internally to support markets that are too smart to buy in. OPEC is losing its most important market share – not oil – but investment. The reason is criminal behavior and the largest longest energy fraud in humanity history.
Nations are no longer amused. They are gaining energy independence from the GULF. Saudi needs a new policy. WE brought them one last year – hand carried to the crown prince by insiders – but derailing the insiders this early was not possible. Now the policy has failed we will see if our Forty Years of Gulf expertise can help them reconstitute a success from a tragedy economically.
A revolution in low cost forever heat energy from the earth – that has no radiation – can’t spill – has zero environmental impact – no CO 2 – only helps the earth and powers say America for 30,000 years with the most fantastic growth use of energy models can define all without any oil at all. We lead in this space. A revolution in low cost energy the cost of everything.
This fuel revolution makes the US DOLLAR KING in the world plus the growing experts of millions of barrels every day 300 million barrels each month growing to one billion barrels month of lower cost lower to refine oil taking OPEC member customers away forever.
Economically Saudi and Opec are susicide packs for oil producers. The sun rose on OPEC and has long ago SET ON OPEC.
It is 2017 TWILIGHT for Opec as they kiss the sun good bye. Forever.
The investors of the world are well aware of the REAL NUMBERS. We predict:
- Aramco audits will come in lower than Saudi representations.
- Oil demand math will show we are right.
The Oil surplus will rise into 2018 and the market will drop.
The oil drop will go up and down for a short time then go down and stay down to 35 as a range and eventually to 10 dollars where oil will still make profits for producers. We submit new technology for oil shale will make oil shale profitable at lower and lower prices year after year.
OPEC has lost criminal cartel control of their desire to artificially MANIPULATE energy cost to the people of the world at a premium tax that benefits their elite few against the billions of us all. This is not morally defensible.
So when you read their words and statements it is not about rebalancing it is about trying to restore MANIPULATION ON PRICE.
Do you want THAT?
Investors seeing all this data are now RUNNING OUT OF OPEC. There is a run of investment capital out of OPEC producer models as a risk reward that makes no economic sense today.
There is a wild car when OPEC hemorrhaging money worse than all nations on the earth – desperate – can move to WAR. WAR disrupts supply and creates OPEC upward price artificially – but at what human cost. The cost of death and destruction for the greedy few against the many? The cost of greed for the greedy few against billions of us?
No one can predict tomorrow in the short term. Long term and not that long at all OPEC is dead on arrival war or no war. And you know why.
BERNY DOHRMANN – AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH UPON THE COST OF EVERYTHING …