AMERICA AND NON OPEC SUPPLIERS IN MARKET SHARE WARS
In 2013 Opec made the game plan to crush America Shale Oil production, than a fraction of what shale oil is today. OPEC had a budget floor of 60 dollars a barrel. Opec brought the price from 120 dollars a barrel – a phony cartel tax upon the 6 billion poorest people on earth – so they could not afford food. down.
The price went under 40.00 dollars a barrel or over 80% drop by 2016.
Then a strange thing happened.
America kept producing.
America found technology AI and robotic ways to produce shale in record output at 37.00 dollars a barrel. So today averaging in closer to 50 dollar range still down 65% from 120 a barrel – and far under the 60.00 dollar floor the CARTEL requires to pay its own bills – America is soaring in production.
The DUC production – drilled and wells standing still till prices stabilize at prices the DUC wells can profit handsomely from is not counted in the America production numbers today. That sum of out put is large and the market is not getting how big the DRILLED UN-PRODUCTIVE CAPPED WELLS DUC WELLS are in the USA.
Today America is passing 10 million barrels of shale output a day.
America has vast reserves of conventional oil both on shore and off shore. Trump is opening up massive off shore reserves that are profitable in the 30 dollar range.
OPEC states which is a pure lie a fake news a spin to move oil prices up from the speculators who control vast sums and bid oil up and or down in bets on which way the price of oil will go. Oil is no longer controlled by buying and selling oil by demand and supply of oil. Oil price is controlled by super elite money pools, structured assets, and hedged pools of oil bets – super pools blending those side bets and super duper pools blending those pools all with leverage and debt the likes of which no casino ever had before for OIL its the cost of everything.
The OPEC folks came out this weekend touting that Oil demand would rise and rise to 100 million barrel a day demand by 2020. This is such a lie. In fact:
- Oil demand is falling like a sledge hammer and the OPEC folks do not know what to do.
- Opec has taken its best customers and told them we are going to cut back your supply China and we are going to raise your price from how you could otherwise buy oil.
- China has said we’ll do all that if you go off US dollars and sell us your higher priced more costly to process oil in Yuan our currency going off the Dollar global world standard. OPEC has not decided yet. America is all over this.
- The result is a TRADE WAR a market share war – where customers with far lower cost oil that is far cheaper to process are taking GULF and OPEC crude customers away from OPEC forever for the first time since the cartel to manipulate oil prices was created.
- Make no mistake the cartel exists to maximize oil prices for its own greed and members – manipulating the world price – for its own member gain. Oil should be 10 dollars a barrel and the world would enjoy market supply prices free of cartel influence and developing nations could DEVELOP with low cost energy. The tax upon the nations of the world has been the worst sin of economics of modern times and should be made a crime and those who manipulate oil prices should go to prison. Oil is the cost of everything.
SO Oil demand is skewed by hurricanes and passing events now normalizing. This means glut or supply back up will rise and rise all winter into next spring. OIL we bet will ( without geo global instability ) drop in price as output rises from nations in OPEC who are cheating or exempt and outside OPEC. What is rallying happening is OPEC MEMBERS are no longer willing to follow SAUDI FAILED POLICY to pay billions to lose market share forever. This model has failed and Saudi has failed. The OPEC Saudi chaps are talking up a storm but the market has no respect for their lies spin and fake news any longer. They have the real charts and the real data.
Oil is a demand item in which:
- More energy is being produced by non oil sources than any time in modern history.
- The move away from electricity from oil is fantastic and oil energy power is going off line at record pace to natural gas clean coal and other alternative sources from wind tide and solar in record killorwatt hours at lowest prices oil can not hope to match.
- Cars the 75% of all oil market – are moving to electric away from oil at a pace the world has never seen before – cars trucks and planes all moving from oil to not use oil by 2020 at % levels that impact supply.
Not only is demand for oil not going to reach 100 million barrels a day by 2020 as OPEC lies suggest – this fake news for anyone with data and charts is a joke. Oil is a human extinction item that elevates CO2 to a level all life as we know it perishes – an event that repeats in EARTH TIME over and over as CO2 and earth temperature rises. Humanity survival means we have to accelerate moving from the crime of mis-using oil for purposes that are frankly insane. Moving our ass around on asphalt road ways.
Hyper Loop – and ships powered by hydrogen from the water they float in are on the market today. OIL is a sinking ship and OPEC is under water today. Saudi is bailing with the only tools it has left – public release of fake news to move market price. They have to get out of ARMACO the Ponzi public offering of the century to transfer their oil wealth at a price before it crashes utterly and use that money to try and re-invent a non oil model for their economics. The race is on.
Meanwhile keeping speculators side betting to keep oil prices up is a casino move that is taken place where volatility from fake news and events – Saudi frail king in his 80’s meeting PUTIN – is designed to temporarily stimulate the price fixers to side bet back into oil prices rising.
The prediction I make – those going long in oil will have a well deserved blood bath.
Saudi policy for OPEC is a market share war OPEC lost and can no longer reclaim. There is a RUN of capital out of OPEC. OPEC is dying. Economically. Members of OPEC will leave and OPEC will not be OPEC as we know it by 2020.
That is what is real not what SAUDI fake news put forth this weekend. OIL PRICES ARE GOING DOWN not up and the charts and data show you why precisely.
No economically policy has failed more and more completely than SAUDI policy to rip market share from SHALE. The result is a rebalancing of MARKET SHARE OUT OF OPEC to allow the world customers to get better oil at lower prices. That is the trend folks and Saudi trying to reduce supply and charge their own best customers ever higher sums for the cost of everything has created contempt at first and now hatred for OPEC as a criminal gang manipulating the cost of everything as a criminal TAX upon the people of the world for elite greed.
That is the only economics going on here in the on going market share war. The speculators who bet on OPEC may make short term gains on market manipulations in volatility but protect your short selling because the big profit is in SHORTING OIL.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the FACTS from the LIES in your face today— October 22, 2017