THE 2017 FINAL QUARTER WEALTH EFFECT:
It requires multiple SHOCKS to derail a market herd up bubble like this market represents today. We saw this in 1929 – again in 1987 – again in 2000 – again in 911 – again in 2007 – and now a decade of expansion and wealth growth.
What Wealth Effect can we see in October of 2017 we are reporting to our CEO SPACE Club Presidents world wide in 140 nations in a ZOOM call today for their consumption and utility?
WEALTH EFFECT 2017
What we know from hard data:
- Stock wealth is at all time record high world wide all G 8 nations
- Bond wealth is at all time record high world wide all G 8 Nations
- Real Estate Wealth is at an all time record high ahead of 2007
- The dollar is strong and rising
- Deficits in USA are falling and oil exporting is simply soaring
- There is NO inflation
- Unemployment is at record lows as GNP was adjusted to 3% USA
The Wealth Effect should drive the final quarter to all time record wealth effects for the market space. Consumer Confidence just polled is at a record all time high in history rolling into the final Holiday buying quarter where 72% of all spending will take place and is ramping now. You see this in rising holiday manufacturing from Detroit to China in the data.
IT TAKES MULTIPLE SHOCKS TO DERAIL THIS JOURNEY
So the entire world is on a journey we can not see what the destination is. The central banks have infused oceans of FREE MONEY by accommodation policies unlike any economic the world has ever known. An uncontrolled experiment with zero ability to predict final outcome.
The vulnerability in this investment banker leader for small business and industry in 140 nations ( CEO SPACE INTERNATIONAL ) is – will enough time exist without multiple shocks to allow the high values of the wealth effect to be supported in fact as fundamentals ( profits ) catch up to support these multiples – as free money is removed from the market space and conditions normalized. Said another way can the wealth effect remain in fact REALITY when accommodation of free money and the fantastic leverage borrowing that is supporting the present market is removed?
For example as other nations normalize financial accommodation policy from Japan to China to the EU can the world Wealth Effect continue without a reaction and contraction? If I had to list the RISK FACTORS to the Wealth Effect they would unfold as follows but not in order necessarily:
- North Korea doing something really stupid and the USA reacts and WORLD WAR III begins seriously.
- Italy votes to leave the EU and defaults on its massive debt.
- Spain has Catalonia move to independence leave the EU and Spain defaults which it must then on its massive debt creating cascade.
- China shift to currency and market controls creates a cascade debt default on its massive debt as its commodity stock pile investments crash in value do to deflation and that house of cards sinks the world system do to counter party agreements world wide. The IMF and World Bank are most worried about that one.
- Shifts in Policy in the EU and Asia create CASCADE and contagion to markets as the value to risk is rebalanced beyond what new AI software creating a speculative casino capitalism can manage.
- Failure to G 100 re-think Digital AI software trading now outside any old paper regulatory frame work – where without a NEW REGULATOR FRAME WORK for the global DIGITAL CASINO the speculative bubble in all asset classes and the Debt Super Bubble super crashes creating system liquidity freezes that end the post world war Ii financial protocol until a new system is created.
- Unforseen Debt Defaults by institutions and nations from record retail bankruptcy to Trump suggesting 70 billion in Puerto Rican debt is now BYE BYE and in default triggering contagion potentials into CASCADE.
Cascade is my TERM for a new condition in economics where bubble asset class defaulting – primarily driven by a DEBT SUPER BUBBLE exceeds AI unregulated digital clearing capacity to provide liquidity when the entire market shifts to sell and there are virtually no buy orders and asset class values are TRAPPED in rapidly crashing value – say 24,000 DOW moving to 6400 DOW – and you can’t get out – you just lose massively daily and your debt and margin calls are upon you with zero liquidity to repay those debt calls – where the entire system freezes up. IN the paper world this took weeks. In the new regulation free zone of digital casino capitalism this LIQUIDITY SYSTEM KILLER – this LIQUIDITY FREEZE which exceeds all AI present parameters in software market inter-trading – crashes the core system itself as Liquidity stops. In hours. Its new folks. No one has models for it and only a few of us are screaming about it including the IMF and WORLD BANK.
No one has a plan to fix the core problem.
We do have a plan. The one and only plan. We outline this fix to our global monetary system in the BOOK REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION. We outline a game plan to sponsor and host:
- A G 100 Economic Constitutional Convention to -re-regulate world markets with new BOX TOP RULES for Fair inclusive world trade between cooperating nations. The convention hosts assure all solutions are cooperative and no competition is permitted as house rules of the game.
- The Constitutional Conference is set on the Big Island of Hawaii most free of politics running economics and designed for economics to run politics world wide – in the RE REGULATION execution of cooperating nations – over a three year Convention of economists from hosting nations. All nations ratify the final treaty.
- The Conference Reconvenes every 20 years to adjust to advances in technology and regulatory tweaks to keep pace with evolving challenges to the elastic world economic order of appropriate regulatory frame work to moderate SUPER BUBBLES and unwanted speculations to market distortion.
Without A Global REGULATORY RE-THINK from the old layered laws of paper regulation in a new ten year digital market space fully outside old regulatory laws and supervision agencies – the new G 100 model can create the SUPER COORDINATED AGENCIES to effect regulatory upgrading such that trillions would move into real economic growth of nations and all nations would be included with fair transparent not secret real time reporting economics world wide.
Can we do better?
Than casino capitalism bred of software in a decade as a go around all nations regulatory models?
So my fear is unforeseen Multiple SHOCKS will take a market globally over valued by speculators – into a new SUPER CRASH and WORLD WAR that is predictable – historically repeating – and fully preventable for the peoples of the world.
DEFENDING THE SPECULATIVE PROFIT MAKING OF 2017/2018
Without a COMMON VISION between World Leaders of:
- What their real problem economically IS
- What the one and only solution to fix that problem truly IS
We are doomed to repeat past history – 1907 speculation Super Crash global depression and world war I – 1929 to 1933 – Super Crash due to speculation abuse of the economic core system – massive world depression and World War II.
If we could avoid repeating history for the precise reasons of those past events and we had the knowledge but lacked the COMMON VISION to ACT why would leaders not READ REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION? Why not buy that book for your leaders today from Amazon and send it to them – while there is still hope and promise to avoid past history.
The clock is ticking.
Time is running out.
As President Bill Clinton who read the book stated to a billion listening – “folks we either cooperate and prosper together or we compete and we perish together ..it IS that simple”. Now that is arithmetic Bill – well said.
If leaders hold INTEGRITY and COMMON VISION we can COOPERATE into a NEW WORLD ORDER of prosperity for all nations with no nation left behind.
If we don’t adopt a new COMMON VISION we will destroy the world in a world war like humanity has never seen as economic abuse must always be rebalanced.
So at the end of 2017 we have the GREATEST WEALTH EFFECT OF ALL TIME. Our Super Debt Bubbles and our Super Asset class Bubblies inside an unregulated speculation driven casino capitalism made possible by digital AI in a single decade – is a new economic frontier. A spiral of wealth like the world has never seen or known before. Ahead of 1929 Super Bubble and speculation frenzy to price ratio – and ahead of debt and ahead of 2007. Ahead of any known model.
No one can predict the outcome.
The way I see the future – we have time to rebalance without Super Crash and war if we moderate systemic with World Bank – IMF and G 100 support for the REGULATORY RE-THINK. It takes us all in cooperation versus competition.
If we don’t we won’t.
The prediction of outcome is pretty clear economically and historically. Given the spiral is tighter and tighter.
The end of this SUPER BUBBLE is drawing closer we suggest March unless the list we put forth her CASCADES before that time.
CASCADE IS THE RISK and you will have zero warning when CASCADE hits the digital market performance and exceeds code parameters ( said from an award winning program design winner – me from silicone valley ). The majority of economists have zero background in code creation for financial and economic cross nation trading and clearing itself an evolving Super Change agency of markets today. To be both an investment banker running a global public investment banking firm for years – an economist – and an award wining AIA programer from Silicon Valley has provided me with expertise – experience and perspective. As an economic historian the obvious of past history repeating – and the critical essential need to moderate past history with SOLUTION CORRECTION before such history is repeated – super crash – depression world war – is obvious is you have these multiple disciplines. If you lack these tools – your conclusions fall in shallow water and you may miss the deeper waves taking place to the core systemic model.
Some of us see this clearly. The majority paid by defend the wealth effect boss’s – do not. They do not see it and they think we are crazy. The problem is in 97 financial predictions since 1988 we have been buzz on precision accurate without one failure in out come. So historic 100% right to historic almost 100% wrong. Unfortunately like in 2007 when the 100% wrongs lacked any model of any kind for real estate going down in price let alone crashing in price – they were all WRONG and we were all RIGHT.
Frustrating. YOU have to be kidding me. Given the horror of outcome and the lost cost to fix this – it is more than frustrating to see competition winning and cooperation loosing as the SOLUTION moves further and further into the shadows. Insanity is winning. Sanity is losing. My readers know this and move to protect themselves. We’ll help keep you safe.
I find leading economists world wide are joining me in spitting against the hurricane of market forces spiraling upward.
Those economists paid by the market forces to defend the WEALTH EFFECT do so with theories which lack the data we are presenting here in this blog. If this data is included economists must moderate their risk reward conclusions.
So when all factors show a FRENZY from a FROTH.
You know the end is near.
Berny Dohrmann – blogging on the FRENZY so at least you know the truth— October 9, 2017