Mount Everest OF RISK & BASE CAMP…..
1. “The S&P 500 is selling at 25 times trailing-twelve-month earnings, compared to a long-term median of 15.”
2. “The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio stands at almost 30 versus a historic median of 16. This multiple was exceeded only in 1929 and 2000 – both clearly bubbles.”
3. “The ‘Buffett Yardstick’ – total US stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP … hit a new all-time high last month of around 145, as opposed to a 1970-95 norm of about 60 and a 1995-2017 median of about 100.
So you rest your money at base camp. You sit at the all time high in Value – real estate – stocks – bonds – your core investment asset classes. Now Re-read those statistics. If those chart define all time high off any table value – how much higher than traditional value modeling do you wish to travel further up hill on.
The distant to the narrowing peak – when you FALL OFF THE CLIFF with your wealth and money – and land way the heck lower than base camp – loss after loss – along the way down – never repairs the emotions of I WISH I HAD LISTENED AND TAKEN ACTION TO PROTECT MY MONEY while there was still time.
THE FORK IN THE WORD:
Optimism before a SUPER CRASH is always high and everyone says it can only go up from here and why. You are at base camp. Go up to the peak with the hype and crash down the avalanche of Super Crash a short time from today in relative terms?
Pack up and go UP.
Pack up and GO DOWN.
That is the choice that will define your nest egg into the future in my opinion.
You have to make the choice.
Pack up and GO UP for maximum possible gains and returns. Your smart enough to outrun the Super Crash. Go for it.
Pack up and GO DOWN into conservative investing that makes ENOUGH more than ENOUGH without loss of any kind in SUPER CRASH.
You sold HIGH at base camp and you protected your nest egg while everyone else packed up and was walking up in lock step.
You have to BREAK FROM THE HERD. ( read that best seller ). BREAK FROM THE HERD – Pack up and GO DOWN.
Remember we told you – and we gave you the data as to why. Your smart you’ll figure it out.
Berny Dohrmann – STAY SAFE OUT THERE
TIS THE SEASON – OH YOU DID NOT KNOW?
The wealthiest people in the world BREAK FROM THE HERD. They buy low and they SELL HIGH. So lets look at these statistics as an tired antique old investment banker economist views the market space:
- The market is at an time peak high. Do you sell or hold?
- The market is in the longest boom in recorded record keeping ever – in June of next year – the second longest in 70 years NOW. Do you hold or sell as the cliff is getting longer and longer.
- There is always a fall off ratio to the longer the boom goes on and the higher the boom rises to the lower the correction goes and the longer the following recession goes on.
- There is the new factor of failed Fed policy with free money for ten years stimulating the highs through massive borrowing the world has never known or seen before – software trading that now makes the market a market of manipulated prices and greed with 50 to 1 leverage from SUPER MONEY POOLS and shadow banking manipulating market prices with software – all unseen in any prior market – and now FED is raising interest and selling trillions of crap back into a market that has no room to buy that crap.
- August is the worst stock price and buy month of any and of every year and September is the worst stock price month – in this enormous risk on market do you buy and hold and keep buying more this August against all the Hype. The hyper before the 1987 stock crash – the hyper before the dot.bomb crash of 2000 the hype before the 2008 super crash was all – DUH WHAT this IS the time to buy are you kidding me. Does that ring alarm bells for YOU.
Perhaps past history means nothing?
So buy high and hope it goes higher. Or sell HIGH and diversify into safe insurance super high return products with guaranteed principle no loss mommy – investing until the dust settles.
Thats my song and I”m sticking to it.
Berny Dohrmann – SINGING FOR THE PROFITS JUST FOR YOU
THE FED – THE LARGEST RISK IN THE WORLD
The FED has gone where no private Non Government Agency has gone before. During the attack on financial markets and the Fed created and allowed SUPER BUBBLE in Mortgage markets – followed with SUPER CRASH the Fed did not understand and was late to appreciate – the Fed protected its private shareholders who own the Fed ( a private stock firm with a contract from 1900 via an 80 page Congressional act – to the US Government ) – by bailing out the shareholder bad bets. The Fed let Lehman go down as a policy mistake which cost tax payers trillions.
No money was invested as in past depressions in work projects and infrastructure development. 10’s of trillions were invested in bad bet bail out. 5 Trillion of this tax payer bail out is from the Fed buying from their own shareholder members – crap investments these members had acquired – bad bets – in bonds and mortgage securities that were non performing – and holding these crap assets at full value as set by the FED and no outside real market value appraisal.
The GNP of the nation is falling. Consumer spending has been off for months. Inventors are rising against falling retail sales this summer. Mortgages and home sales are hitting a price wall as not enough borrowers can qualify for loans at the higher real estate prices. The American market is stalling and not doing well.
The FED like the star ship enterprise has gone where no financial private “in charge of printing money contractor to a government” has ever gone before – following two decades of absolute failed policy making crashing the USA middle class and economy – to the benefit of a few elite members of its shareholder banks and investment banks who actually own and control the FED- a Fed accountable to no one at all – independence means no accountability to anyone. Ever. No one can over rule a failed Fed policy decision.
Today the Fed has attempted having made the membership – banks and investment banks and the entire world economy, dependent on stimulus. Stimulus means FREE MONEY – for a decade – and stimulating bond and stock prices by buying up crap pools of assets over ten years ( which no Fed had ever done before. ) where the FED balance sheet, built upon debts to the USA tax payer – is now 5 trillion dollars of accumulating the crap their members held the worst investments and removing THAT CRAP from the member balance sheets where the FED held it.
Now the Fed is raising interesting rates when the economy is sinking. GNP for the USA has been down graded twice this year by the IMF to 2.1% for 2017. Third worlds like North Korea are growing at 4% even with sanctions by comparison. China at 5.9 %.
USA growth sucks.
Now the Fed is raising interest where the cost of USA debt rises like a space shuttle launch where zero interest becomes MARKET RATE INTEREST. The Bond Market will react to these rapid changes.
Now the Fed against raising interest rates – that make its shareholder members – banks and investment banks enormous new profits as interest rates rise – seek to at the same time – SELL 5 trillion of their crap back into the markets.
Where no Fed has gone before?
- The markets will not react to the higher cost of everything – cost of money rising rapidly – while trillions of CRAP are sold back into global markets who may or may not absorb these assets. If they win the market consequence of the risk taking worked well. Fed policy worked and they won.
- If the markets do not absorb the NEW FED POLICY in 2017 – the bond and stock markets will be disturbed into the biggest upset since the 2008 crash and FED policy will have failed and possibly pushed the world to SUPER CRASH depression and world war. A likely outcome historically.
- Economics are unforgiving for manipulation and errors by policy makers seeking to manipulate economics. No firm is too big to fail or too big to jail…none. If you disregard this premise and manipulate continuation of legal theft the deleveraging later is always far more painful then when met at the gate.
The FED has created the worlds largest SUPER BUBBLE – a global DEBT bubble of 100’s of trillions now in BAD NON PERFORMING FAILED DEBT – that will never not ever be repaid. This SUPER DEBT BUBBLE – is global – peaking in the USA – and will be made so much WORSE as interest rates rise and the bond crap that financed so much of the failed debt will rise in cost to the market while the super bubble super bond bubbles contain so much crap that is non performing the entire house of cards wholes to risk of falling over as the failed POLICY unfolds.
Going where no Fed has gone before has become the LARGEST RISK ON EARTH IN HISTORY due to failed 20 year FED POLICY which is WHY we suggest the failed FED be merged back into the US TREASURY by an emergency act of congress that can be completed in a week for the great good of the American People. The US TREASURY needs to repaid the failed policy of the privately owned FED.
So the FED NEW POLICY will introduce we are selling our 5 trillion of CRAP back not global markets – hoping against hope they will just buy our 5 trillion starting in November and say thanks for helping us now we’ll buy or own crap back noting we have to do so at ever rising interest rates.
WOWIE say the banks and investment banks and sovereign nation funds we just can’t wait to buy this FED CRAP back they off loaded from us at highest prices and highest interest WOWIE WOWIE.
Now if the market fails to buy these tranches over time. The risk is the most significant market disintermediation in modern history since the 1927 Depression SUPER CRASH.
THAT is the RISK from todays FED policy shift.
Do we think this is ill timed and a continuation of the WORST FED Chairperson in the history of the FED – Madamn Yellin – making history for this tarnish on her own watch – YOU BET That is what WE THINK. We can’t tell you how awful and misguided her policies have been. All failed.
Now as the market is becoming fully unstable she adds to the instability and uncertainty at the worst possible time.
OIL – RISES AND WHY:
OIL rises this week. The speculators are pushing the price up. Sovereign Wealth Funds in OIL are assuring oil prices rise as influence to the market in their side bet.
They all waited till the SUMMER PEAK markets when pull down of inventory was guaranteed in every year. So peak use of the peak period of the summer is here for 45 days. A pull down of inventory as expected and is seasonal. As this falls off and oil supplies RISE from:
- Opec Cheating and rising exports – trust me
- Lybia peace accord soaring their production
- Nigeria soaring production
- Non Opec rises in production
- Off set and add to oil supply against demand
- The glut will continue
The market is not rebalanced. Nor is the market rebalancing. The market is driven by FAKE NEWS fed by SOVEREIGN NATIONS and speculator PR firms being paid to entice massive investor return to go long on oil. Those who do will suffer a blood bath without a war. If there is war oil will go up of course.
If we hold on to peace and the Syria accord holds – Syria production will rise as well. Folks Oil supply is just off setting any pledge that Saudi MAY cut its exports by X. Saudi is in fact not going to loose any more of its clients and customers to the other suppliers in a THE MARKET SHARE WARS.
You will come to see this blog as prophetic as the world will have a bit higher oil price for a few weeks when BAM they will not as oil prices all again this fall.
We’ll see how I did on this one. The experts say I’m wrong which is 100% of the time. But then in the high 90% of the time – I’m right.
Its a fun table to play on – a 90% win table.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping you in the WINNERS SEAT on OIL
So, Israel bows culturally and removes the metal detectors from the Holy Sites. Jordon has returned their dead and the state thanked Jordon for the close cooperation. Jordon is in charge of the site not Israel which is an issue for the Muslim Community on authority and chain of command. They want no change.
Oil broke 50 and went over fell back and pinched over. Speculators are taking profits from the Saudi “nothing” announcement. Uganda oil production will exceed Saudi cut backs as will Lybia now in cease fire and Nigeria without the USA. If Venezuela has a coup and new leadership its production will roar over the top of any cut backs. At 50 or above American SHALE goes GREEN LIGHT full on. So we look at the glut rising sharply this fall when use and demand from the summer fall from peak and supply is still over demand. Jaw boning and Opec are and remain a joke in the market. Saudi is losing market share by too many billions they can’t count them and Saudi will never get that market share back. They are paying their enemies in the market to take it from them. Good Plan big thinkers.
Trump considers firing SESSION. WOW more dysfunction and more fuel for impeachment distraction. Can the US Congress get any more dysfunctional? You bet it can. Watch that dysfunction unfold more completely.
The real issue is the credit rating of the United States. Congress is about to raise our cost of borrowing – fail to pass the required budget and debt ceiling the nation by law requires – and in breaching their duties to govern, accelerate the decline of the USA in every possible way at home and abroad. The middle class has no chance inside this failed form of ZERO GOVERNANCE. Our enemies are embolden and no longer take the US seriously economically or in any context. The world thinks one thing – America is no longer RELIABLE. That is on Congress regardless of who is President. Congress represents the people. That job is no longer JOB # 1 in America. To the great distress of our republic.
Meanwhile as case in point today – IRAN fast attack boats coming to our own at sea military – at 450 yards – four foot ball fields – having high speed and zero answer to lights flags flares and radio had WARNING SHOTS FIRED TO THOSE VESSEL PATHS at which time they did slow down or they would have been blown out of the water. Do you see the paragraph and blogs on the US Congress in global context NOW?
China is warning today – all other nations – stop your plans to drill for minerals in your own waters as we claim them illegally and will go to war with you if you challenge our military might to enforce our law breaking nation.
China is launching a QUANTUM internet the NSA can not hack. This new internet will be tested and we’ll see about claims it can not be hacked. The NSA with quantum hacking may teach a lesson to those that think they are so far ahead. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the United States Military and Agencies who are beyond the DYSFUNCTION of the Congress as of yet. So far at least.
Russian police entered the CEASE FIRE cities in Syria. It is seeming more like occupation than help at this point. Putin has won and the USA has lost in Gulf policy and in Syria policy. That much is clear. Our failed policy elevated Putin globally. Admit when we lose or lost. You can’t win if you can’t see your own failures. One after the other.
Trump is preparing the nation to fire more than Sessions. We will have to wait to see how Mr. Apprentice the author of YOUR FIRED plays out his pink slip to his own team mates who fail to last long if they forget their is ONE BOSS that they work for – and it is the PRESIDENT in the Administration. Trump wants results and loyal team and performance he can see reports for and hold team mates accountable for. If you fail to deliver we cook your liver – thats my tweet. For today.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping it real for my readers world wide
PS: Congress has brought the US dollar to its lowest level in 20 full months and its still falling. If the CREDIT RATING of this nation is not preserved – requiring debt ceiling increase and a budget passing – a SUPER CRASH in the world markets may follow.