Mount Everest OF RISK & BASE CAMP…..
1. “The S&P 500 is selling at 25 times trailing-twelve-month earnings, compared to a long-term median of 15.”
2. “The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio stands at almost 30 versus a historic median of 16. This multiple was exceeded only in 1929 and 2000 – both clearly bubbles.”
3. “The ‘Buffett Yardstick’ – total US stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP … hit a new all-time high last month of around 145, as opposed to a 1970-95 norm of about 60 and a 1995-2017 median of about 100.
So you rest your money at base camp. You sit at the all time high in Value – real estate – stocks – bonds – your core investment asset classes. Now Re-read those statistics. If those chart define all time high off any table value – how much higher than traditional value modeling do you wish to travel further up hill on.
The distant to the narrowing peak – when you FALL OFF THE CLIFF with your wealth and money – and land way the heck lower than base camp – loss after loss – along the way down – never repairs the emotions of I WISH I HAD LISTENED AND TAKEN ACTION TO PROTECT MY MONEY while there was still time.
THE FORK IN THE WORD:
Optimism before a SUPER CRASH is always high and everyone says it can only go up from here and why. You are at base camp. Go up to the peak with the hype and crash down the avalanche of Super Crash a short time from today in relative terms?
Pack up and go UP.
Pack up and GO DOWN.
That is the choice that will define your nest egg into the future in my opinion.
You have to make the choice.
Pack up and GO UP for maximum possible gains and returns. Your smart enough to outrun the Super Crash. Go for it.
Pack up and GO DOWN into conservative investing that makes ENOUGH more than ENOUGH without loss of any kind in SUPER CRASH.
You sold HIGH at base camp and you protected your nest egg while everyone else packed up and was walking up in lock step.
You have to BREAK FROM THE HERD. ( read that best seller ). BREAK FROM THE HERD – Pack up and GO DOWN.
Remember we told you – and we gave you the data as to why. Your smart you’ll figure it out.
Berny Dohrmann – STAY SAFE OUT THERE
— July 28, 2017