As my readers know I have cautioned on ASIA investing for some time now. The IMF reported today in a long summary of detail, that the RISK is for Asia to move lower in forward time through 2018. The IMF adjusted their ASIA GROWTH TARGETS lower.


The big reason is trade wars taking place world wide. Protectionism. Every nation in the market for their own agenda today as cooperation is fractured. The huge RISK of USA desires to get better or improved trade deals country by country may change the landscape in ASIA  – as the biggest economic engine for all Asia trade – is a primary reason but far from the ONLY reason for the USE CAUTION from the IMF related to elevated risk. The IMF report included cautions related to:

  1. Asia fiscal problems which are internal and a historic failed policy to solve it
  2. The move of many nations to revise trade deals in ASIA
  3. The USA protectionism under Donald Trump seeking more fair trade
  4. The Debt burdens of Asia private and public sector
  5. The withdrawal of capital in a RISK ON market coming to forward growth

The impact of the conclusions is a warning bell for those in serious long positions in Asia bonds equities and related as the economics are declining now and a speed up of this trend is now called LIKELY by the IMF today.

It was a big item confirming what we have been reporting.

Berny Dohrmann – As always you have it first here as my reader family

— May 10, 2017

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