TRUMP IS BEING DESTROYED BY THE SYSTEM HE SWORE TO DESTROY:
In the first 100 days of office, President Trump has embraced the system he swore he would destroy. In 2017 President Trump has passed no major legislation including the USA Budget. The first effort to show Republican Muscle, and unity, was to honor the promise to REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA CARE.
Except there was no legislation to repeal Obama care as promised.
There was a health care reform to change Obama care. This divided the Republican Party into vicious rifts that remain today. The entire Congress dysfunctional on bitter party divides for over a decade was business as usual. The SYSTEM was not destroyed in any way. The system destroyed TRUMP’s plans.
Today the tax reform act is in congress. This act according to David Stockman economists from Reagan’s White House will cost 7.5 trillion dollars. Goldman suggests the number is more like 5.5 Trillion Dollars ( today in their report ).
The Trump team says “hold on – hold on a minute” you have to apply dynamic scoring. Which means IF x growth happens and treasury receipts rise with that growth – the budget can be more more appealing. If not the US TREASURY SECRETARY suggests it may not work.
The major economists including past Fed Chairman suggests this week the Trump plan for more than 3% USA Growth can not occur. They cite why. So much for dynamic scoring and back to a DEAD ON ARRIVAL elevation of the USA deficit within a tax plan Congress is unlikely to pass in this format.
Will tax reform act pass congress? That is a huge item for President Trump. If the tax reform package fails in congress, the democratic partisan congress, united with some fiscal republicans who join them, will have DESTROYED THE TRUMP PRIMARY AGENDA to himself destroy the system of this type of political in fighting and modeling. Congressional dysfunction is presently institutionalized.
Innovation and re-tooling of America in a SUPER CHANGE global environment is too slow, too non progressive, and too lacking in innovation to re-invent the America experience itself. America is dying. The American middle class is dying. It is a slow death. But as other’s rise the great age of America is at risk based on issues from within versus issues from without.
While the SYSTEM ABSORBS President Trump, into itself, which seems to always happen with leadership as they determine what the LIMITATIONS OF POWER TRULY are, we see the focus outside the nation such as on North Korea. This is actually not a bad thing. The North Korean issue, is precisely the same as any insane leadership gang owning weapons and delivery systems of this nature. What is not being talked about is the trade beginning in these weapons from nations like India, Pakistan, North Korea and nations like Iran do not have to make them they can just buy them. They have the missiles already.
So this item can never go back into the bottle.
The USA policy on such items is containment and where possible removal.
One of the core policy issues is IF YOU ARE THE LEADING SUPER POWER HOW DO YOU STAY THERE IF YOU FAIL TO EVER USE YOUR SUPER POWER?
At some point when you have your own people threatened do you only retaliate versus devastate and destroy those who threaten? Is a total devastating first strike a signal to the entire world – do not put those silver bullets in your weapon – or we will melt your weapon appropriate for a SUPER POWER?
Trading human lives is itself such an insane trade but the issue in the weapons of choice today is time. Their lives or our lives. They are making these choices but they are insane. Because they will never – not ever – have survivability. In a total world nuclear war the USA would still come out on the other side with its allies while the opposing forces would not. Which they all know today.
Part of the problem of assessment in this area is that the systems and weapons everyone knows are 30 years old. The systems and weapons the leading SUPER POWER and there is only one today actually have, are beyond anything the world has ever seen or experienced. You just can not know what is being developed or has been.
The USA is running a GNP of around 13 to 15 trillion annually with all items factored in. The Chinese GNP is running around 5 trillion. Japan runs upside of Four. Russia runs 1.7 trillion. The USA % moving into military and defense is larger than all of them combined. There is ONE SUPER POWER and the rest are sinking into lower levels of capacity looking at the economics.
The USA without forward policy and inspired leadership will not be able to over the long term continue to advance is rare global stature over time. For this generation however there is ONE SUPER POWER.
The wild card now is President Trump. President Trumps leadership qualities include:
- A new model that is no longer predictable or box-able
- A team leadership which is extraordinary beyond most of this century
- Translating to his alliance teams which he is tastefully forging relationships like we have not seen in decades
- Adaption – learn and reform positions to accommodate the better information
- Do-ables – if at first you do not succeed assess from all sides and do what CAN BE DONE
In this number 5 you can see the man who would reform and destroy the existing system being swallowed entirely by the existing system. Which is workable actually. Short of a revolution the existing system bought and paid for and entrenched is beyond reform from without. Reform from within takes generations.
As with all great systems. The world wants slower change not radical change anyway.
So the relevant part of this report is landing on this square peg.
The MARKETS which as a former Chairman of a MAJOR global public brokerage firm, and 30 years running Forbes and Inc. Magazine # 1 small business CEO business Conference series world wide – is rising based on what? We have said that the danger and Stockman said this again today, as have others, is:
- All asset classes are manipulated in a new digital form of capitalism we call CASINO CAPITALISM that law makers globally and their regulatory agencies so under funded, have failed to REGULATE in any way. The markets have gone digital and the regulations have been outdated.
- The trades are in the cloud.
- All asset classes are now a controlled super bubble.
- Made possible for decades of FREE MONEY to unregulated investment banks who for the first time since the Great Depression can legally leverage bank deposits into market asset classes. And they have by the 100’s of trillions of dollars of LEVERAGE.
- New forms of market trading in ETF and structured assets – always attempting to be fair to create RISK-LESS RISK – actually advance systemic super risk and fail to moderate the markets to economics versus speculation.
- The SPECULATION MARKETS that created the great depression of 1929 and the depression of 1907 globally – are back in carbon copy and everyone has forgotten the CAUSE – when side bets as to which way an future price may go are by ratio many times greater than the stake holder investments into real markets economically, the speculative bubble when fed by leverage, ( and today the leverage is fantastic more than any market since Greece and Rome ) will and must SUPER CRASH.
- The SUPER CRASH creates a new regulatory frame work – which lacking today, is feeding the speculation in casino capitalism. The price of today’s stocks is not based on economics and Trump’s anticipatory set for drivers to growth are failing and not occurring making the price earnings ratio hideous over priced – ripe for a serious SUPER CRASH as the SUPER BUBBLE is now stocks, bonds, real estate, and all commodities.
The world is locked in the cause of all depressions even with this super money circulation in markets – DEFLATION. The desired INFLATION after 100 trillion of global government spending has utterly failed to gain traction. Now we have all this debt.
In the end the DEBT SUPER BUBBLE will do in the present financial system. Rebalancing the Debt Accounts of failed companies institutions and nations will be painful but must ultimately flow through the system of economics.
REBALANCING is never pleasant when the credit abuse is high.
As an investment banker economist I have advocated leaders who make laws and economists read REDEMPTION THE COOPERATION REVOLUTION. Inside the pages of this book at Amazon is the one and the only solution I have seen in the many discussions across the DAVOS type of meetings I attend world wide. This solution inserts TIME into the DEBT BUBBLE and advances a refinancing solution concept under a new class of sovereign nation bond funding we call SUPER BONDS. This model would act as a shock absorber to the problem and with proper REGULATORY REFRAME upon GLOBAL DIGITAL TRADING – banishing speculations – and fiscal legal codifications to get SUPER BONDS on fiscal GNP modeling to debt in the future, the world could avoid a SUPER CRASH AND GLOBAL WAR FROM DEPRESSION.
However politics is driving economics and this model always fails in all systems.
Unless economics drives politics and soon the CASINO CAPITALISM system ( which includes modern communism and socialism globally ) will all go bankrupt and sooner than anyone suspects.
In that world the nation that has the arsenal is the leader which continues in our forward generations to leave the USA as the one to bet on. In all respects.
So keep these thoughts in your mind when you try and determine what is REALLY going on out there. And be mindful of how dysfunctional Congress is today and what that means for stock prices in the term of the coming 12 to 18 months as the TRUTH gets out on zero growth in the USA.
A handful of stocks can not continue to drive this market as if the market were supportive of these insane price points. Someone is going to experience a blood bath.
Berny Dohrmann – Keeping the Bath Water Warmer Just For You Today— May 1, 2017