AS WE PREDICTED THE MARKETS WITH EVERY REASON TO RISK OUT – WENT UP!
The fools win. For now. Eventually, the fools will discover the truth. The new software-driven casino capitalism is operating in a fully flawed, Super Bubble in all asset classes, driven by FREE central bank money and a rising spiral of BAD debt shown as good assets on financial statements, the DEBT BOMB OF TOTAL SYSTEM MASS DESTRUCTION.
So what do we see?
Market share wars. OPEC is trying to jaw bone plentiful oil into being rebalanced and scare when the surplus is soaring. American production in America in Mexico in Canada is soaring. The market share that OPEC and SAUDI are paying 100’s of billions to forever transfer to markets outside the GULF is a fully engaged energy MARKET SHARE WAR. It’s no longer about supply and demand. It is about MARKET SHARE as we reported last year. OPEC is no longer in possession of tools and tactics to control their own market share. As they are dependent on a fixed floor price for oil due to their own debt they have to raise prices or cut back.
So who blinked.
This Easter Weekend Saudi blinked. They are now cutting back on 100’s of billions in forwarding growth and building and job creation. These projects initiated at 100 dollars phony oil pricing ( as if that was anything by temporary price gauging ) – and all agencies of the nation are placing their projects on HOLD – DROPPING THEM – OR rescheduling them over twenty years instead of twenty months ( and we suggest IF EVER ).
Saudi BLINKED AWAY 100’S OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS the market goes UP. Yeah right. That’s real alright.
Evaporated wealth contracts jobs and a ripple effect that will create bankruptcy in construction and other sectors. It is just starting to unwind.
Meanwhile when oil plunges back into the 30’s the OPEC world will be unable to explain why they PAID BILLIONS TO LOSE THEIR OWN MARKET SHARE FOREVER. If ever there was a failed policy greater than the US FED failed policy for this recovery it is SAUDI”s recent OPEC policy on market share and their utter loss from the failed policy. It is sad to watch it and we tried to help them. No one listens. We wrote them. No one replied. Now the cost is so astronomical I shudder. When I was a boy I knew the Kings grandfather. He would have replied.
On other fronts. The move from Managed money where a person makes choices on how your money will be managed versus a software doing it for you as in electronically traded funds or ETF markets – has passed 1 trillion dollars in ten years. This is the seminal change in financial markets. Part of this relates to a regulatory rule by President Obama which forced the changes due to liability on regulation. Trump has paused those regulations. So we have to see now.
The experiment of SOFTWARE trading against software without human thought being a moderation to the data facts and market modeling removes one element. EMOTIONAL CAPITAL. In the end, software can run modeling. The software can not think.
The software knows it made a trade. The Human KNOWS IT KNOWS. Software never will. Human’s know the EMOTIONAL LANDSCAPE to moderate decision making and software never will.
So now we have riskless risk again. As there is no such thing as riskless risk the market is at greater pure risk than any time in human history. Why?
Leverage. The fantastic leverage taking place. For example, the hedge fund industry made the best recovery to its house since 2013. Did they invest this year wisely?
They are investing 100’s of billions to SHORT SELL RETAIL. Shorting JC Penny. Shorting Nordstrom. Shorting brick and mortar Sears?
Do humans want to go to a mall? Do we want to have goods to touch and feel? Do we want the experience of being HUMAN? People watching. Social. Fun. Tactile? Do we want that? If we do we had better GO SHOPPING. Get offline and GO IN LINE or you want have malls outside museums. The SUPER MONEY is forcing these firms out.
It is a financial warfare that used to be a crime, as market manipulation.
So the 86% of software managed money has underperformed when taking into account all the failed firms, in the first run up in this market, over ten years to match the risk moderation of human trading. No one is looking at these real numbers.
So you want to save the “idea of lower fee’s” when the higher fees are ONE TIME and the fees are all the time? They are not really lower, are they? When you have 86% underperformance they are not really low at all.
When the market has zero software liquidity only a human manager can get your money for. Your software will give you an error message.
The greatest liquidity sump in human history is building a giant whirlpool sucking the capacity from abusive leverage for the system to inside disintermediation satisfy liquidity calls placed inside the ETF markets. The entire system is at risk inside this unregulated digital experiment. There are zero checks and balances. There is no clearing to manage the SUPER CRASH liquidity evaporation. Remember we told you here first. Just keep it in your mind.
So the entire world is engaged MARKET SHARE WAR. Trade wars. Across every asset class. Super Money controlled by software now with unlimited leverage can margin manipulate any price asset group. Fantastic side bets are being made in the market of casino capitalism. These side bets have no stake in economic growth or reality. They are siding bets on which way a future price may go with software betting both ways to make profits instantly on any move and then vacate and replace bits in flash trading.
No one is regulating these manipulations. The Commodity Future Trading Commission has almost 500 million trading fractions per day to review. No software they possess can begin the process of creating a case in a week or two weeks or a month on trillions of transactions flows. There is no regulation. Stop lying. The digital world moved outside regulatory control ten years ago. The world is now a casino and there is no history like this to compare to.
Given the FED is no longer buying and is going to be selling the market dynamics shifts. We suggest software again is not hooked up to the EMOTIONAL CAPITAL of this Fed Policy Change but human money managers are. We suspect a soaring return to human money managers in the forward market periods of rebalancing.
So follow the bouncing ball. Its all about short term greed and profits from market manipulations. It has nothing to do with facts and data that would drive sane profit earnings ratios versus today’s insane profit earnings ratios. We say get OUT HIGH Because the end is coming.
Now then the US DOLLAR. WE do not side with Ron Paul and his infomercial for a private firm selling their opinion. They are not right they have been wrong and are wrong again.
THE US DOLLAR will remain the world reserve currency. Why? Because it is backed by real value and not by nothing as Ron Paul Suggests. It is backed by these core assets:
1. The fantastic capacity output of the most productive people on earth.
2. The Food wealth of the one nation that can feed the entire world by itself.
3. The Mineral Wealth the envy of all nations. We need no imports push comes to shove but we’ll save our wealth and use yours.
4. Infrastructure the most developed infrastructure of roads schools damns power grids and water on the planet earth.
5. Money – the trading center of all nations with clearing to secure trades globally with no other subsystem or alternative even exists for TRUST.
6. The Constitution of the Untied States is the most trusted stable government form upon the earth and out money follows that system modeling.
7. The most powerful military on earth ten times that of Russia or any other nation with you have no clue what toys they possess if truly threatened. The USA will be here today and after all out world war and the dollar will still be the global currency.
Bet against the dollar. You are a bigger fool than George Soros who has lost half his fortune doing just that till coming up on 90 he wised up and gave those loses up. Now he fights lawsuits. Great legacy as the father of all speculators.
THE USA is the strongest financial modeling machine on earth. The entire system has the FLU. The Flu is a need to REFRAME GLOBAL FINANCIAL REGULATIONS FOR THE DIGITAL AGE BY THE G 100 NATIONS.
if the REGULATORY RE-THINK DOES NOT TAKE PLACE to prevent an asset price meltdown fostered by rampant speculation – then the system debt abuse will rebalance accounts economically as always within a SUPER CRASH.
The Super Crash will be wildly painful because it is fully preventable. The urge to compete versus cooperate is the impulse upon which outcome hinges. As competition is a form of insanity only the sanity of cooperation and collaboration can remedy the problems piled up from insane economics.
Economics is rigid. Inflexible. A framework of balances. If the scale is wildly out of balance the big tilt is likely.
You do not have to appreciate all the data and information I bring to you. You only need to appreciate:
1. Peoples and nations can not spend more than they earn endlessly without a crash.
2. Markets can not invest with leverage inside bets greater than real bets without destroying the core system of markets.
3. Spiraling debt imbalance and trade imbalance must rebalance.
4. The trigger is contagion a system overload that triggers all the circuit breakers at once.
5. The consequence of politics driving economics versus economics driving politics is SUPER CRASH and WORLD WAR.
In the end, it is all just dollars and sense. Politicians mean well but do not understand the economic alphabet. As Ron Paul’s recent video states – in a congressional budget hearing – when asked to spend billions more on bank bailouts – one lawmaker asked congressional leader Ron Paul – “but the dollar is backed by Gold isn’t it?”
Now when the people making the laws do not know President Nixon took the USA off the gold standard for its currency in the 1970’s you have to appreciate that spending by lawmakers is NOT ECONOMIC. It is political. That is insane.
In 2017 in May we have lost control of world trade and financial markets. ROBBER BARONS now run the market outside any rule of law or regulation in the CLOUD. Global markets are officially CASNO CAPITALISM just like in 1927 before the 1929 Stock Market SUPER CRASH and Depression.
I have asked everyone to consider a DOW at 6000. Everyone thinks I am insane. I made that prediction consistently since 2012 saying the OTHER SHOE to rebalance accounts must drop but politicians can kick that can down the street 20 to 30 years making it all SO MUCH WORSE when the shoe does fall – so much worse.
There is still time to fix it all.
But truly folks, everyone is at the casino party, drunk, making so much money, listening to the music play, no one is listening to the TRUTH.
Well except for you. You read this blog because you GET THE TRUTH and you want to stay really ahead of the lies.
So we’ll keep the light on just for you.
THE FOOLS FALL CONTINUES – MARKET UP on foolishness BERNY DOHRMANN
PS: US ARMADA OFF NORTH KOREA AND WE SEE THE MARKET GO UP WHILE VP PENCE SAYS THE PATIENCE IS OVER – BAM FOR FAT BOY think he’ll even be alive next year?— April 18, 2017